Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.
As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).
For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.
Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:
• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.
• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.
• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/turnbull-still-has-time-just-but-his-critics-will-never-give-him-clean-air/news-story/6eceecb83e5122cb33937c3e75d6c759
How much time PvO I wonder?
Late Riser @ #6 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:10 pm
The corollary of that is Bill Shorten has won:
30 Newspolls in a row against Tony Abbott;
30 Newspolls in a row against Malcolm Turnbull.
I think that would make him officially Australia’s most effective Leader Of The Opposition.
From Dr KB’s site:
including the non-consecutive ones they will have lost 69, won 13 and tied 7 since coming to office in September 2013.
What a record of achievement. I mean seriously has any government even come close in almost two terms? A couple of months where it took stupid people a while to work out each of the two PM’s was a clown and three and a bit years of wishing they’d just fuck off.
So Turnbull has a small rise to confound some of the pundits. He seems to be on the right track now. He will be relieved he is on the upswing. Now the spotlight will turn on to Shorten and his lack of popularity. Why has he been unable to match Turnbull in popularity when the Labor vote is better tham the Libs???
Primaries:Coalition 38, Labor 37, Greens 10, One Nation 7
Turnbull: Satisfied 32, Dissatisfied 57
Shorten: Satisfied 32, Dissatisfied 57
Better PM Turnbull 38, Shorten 36
They are horrible figures for turnbull, but not that crash hot for labor, and enough for the libs to stick with Turnbull. There’s 8% ‘other and undecided’. History tells us that labor needs >52% TPP Newspolls right up to the election to win. the gov has the budget to bring down and a media that still likes turnbull. I wish someone other than shorten was leader. I think he can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I reckon turnbull could try an election pitch that said “the only way I can govern the way you want me to is if I have a strong majority. Give that to me, and I will not be beholden to minorities outside and within my government. Give that to me and I will have stronger policies on climate change; I will call a parliamentary college to draft a referendum on the republic; and….( I was wrong, there is no third point other than ‘cut taxes to those who aren’t in need, and cut services to those who are)”. Shorten has far better policies and team talent, but he’s still a liability.
April 5-8
Yay! A new playmate.
Is the Libs party meeting tomorrow or Tuesday?
It will need more than one Newspoll for the Libs to pull anything back.Jobs n growth bullshit and giving tax to big companies are not going to do it.
No party meeting until May Fulvio
Damn.
I see The Australian is trying to make a silk purse out of a feral pig’s ear.
I do not know why they bother. They can no more cover this milestone up than a handkerchief over an elephant crap.
You know what the Libs agenda is?Do sweet FA and hope they get a bounce in the polls just like that.
Shorten a liability?
I don’t agree. Easily Labor’s best and most astute leader since Keating.
So the text of the ungracious egomaniac when citing 30 negative Newspolls as his reason to challenge Abbott and describe Abbott and his administration as he did with his blistering Solicitor speak is the subject of a media report
Turnbull’s entire public life has been about the ambition of Mr and Mrs Turnbull
Witness the Republic Referendum, his time as Opposition Leader including Gretch and his petulance at the last election result which was instructive
In the meantime the impacts of the most effective form of regulation being self regulation in a privatised market place underpinning trickle down economics to the benefit of the demographic which do benefit from those settings continues to blight Australian society producing the economic data releases we continue to see and resulting in the RBA maintaining an accommodative bias – and the RBA promoting wage increases because history is the RBA and those States which are investing in infrastructure can not turn the economic SS Titanic by themselves
Instead this government peddle tax cuts and a demographic receiving remittances from the ATO when they have remitted no tax in the first instance
All whilst attacking welfare recipients including partly self funded retirees who no longer receive the pension supports including concessions they once received
As with Howard you can only divide the Nation so far before the result is what awaited Howard – no matter the offer of tax cuts
It will need more than one Newspoll for the Libs to pull anything back.Jobs n growth bullshit and giving tax to big companies are not going to do it.
They haven’t pulled back shit. There is nothing here that isn’t best explained by natural polling variation. Back to the 53 that has been the norm for a year now is the most likely next poll result. Barnyard couldn’t move the polls FFS. It’s just locked in.
Where the F..k is Rex?
Ockerguy
But good part is Bill Shorten only 2 points behind in PPM according to Simon Benson of the Australian
So don’t “worry” too much will You!
I am happy with that result.Just enough pressure on Turnbull everyday from now until hes rolled.
(To the tune of There ain’t no mountain high enough)
There ain’t no mattress soft enough, no sheets silky enough, no pillows feathered enough, no brandy fine enough,
To give Turnbull a good night’s sleep tonight.
SusFuture – Trumble’s pitch would have to say ““the only way I can govern the way you want me to is if I have a strong majority – and if you vote for my party’s moderate candidates but chuck the nutters out and still somehow give me a majority”. He’s not going to say that, and the voters are not going to do it. The deadlock between the mods and the nutters is now a permanent feature of the “party”. They just can’t govern any more. Vote them out!
Ockerguy 10.32 pm
But good part is Bill Shorten only 2 points behind in PPM according to Simon Benson of the Australian
So don’t “worry” too much will You!
52-48 probably means Turnbull survives and I think thats what the public want.They want to vote Turnbull out and not some other clown when it comes to the election.
There would be mass hysteria…
Jeff Tiedrich
Jeff Tiedrich
@jefftiedrich
imagine if Hillary owned a gaudy tower in NYC and never installed sprinklers and there was a fire and someone died. Fox News would be losing its mind. Hannity would be shitting roofing nails. Congressmen would be falling all over each other in a mad dash to hold
Why does The Oz gild the lily?
The (ever declining) readership is largely made up of Tory voters so they are served up what they want to read.
Last thing they want over Monday morning breakfast is news that they party is toast.
nath @ #43 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 10:21 pm
Labor. Because Labor are the only party who don`t want to take away their Penalty Rates altogether and pay them a decent Minimum Wage, which is what most of them get, plus Penalty Rates! You goose!
OK. We’re back up and running.
Dan Gulberry says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 5:24 am
OK. We’re back up and running.
________________
Poor choice of a night to go offline!
BINGO!!!
don
Indeed. Although I suspect a lot of Bludgers were too busy popping champagne bottles and dancing in the streets to post anyway.
Morning all. 30 in a row, congratulations Malcolm! At last, an achievement of sorts, besides ME, which must have looked an own goal to conservatives.
Hilarious that people raise talk of LOTO leadership when the PM has lost 30 polls straight.
What will Trump do – shirtfront Asad? He is impotent.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-09/donald-trump-says-big-price-to-pay-for-syria-chemical-attack/9631974
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/09/one-of-queenslands-largest-irrigators-expected-to-be-charged-with
Finally! Criminal law may finally be applied to alleged rural resource crimes.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/09/one-of-queenslands-largest-irrigators-expected-to-be-charged-with
Would you like fries with that?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-theresa-may-us-uk-eu-chlorine-chicken-food-safety-standards-poll-a8292496.html
https://www.itwire.com/telecoms-and-nbn/82352-split-up-nbn-co-before-rollout-ends-accc.html
#Newspoll Preferred LIB Leader: Turnbull 28 (-2) Bishop 27 (+1) Abbott 13 (0) Dutton 9 (+2) #auspol
These are dreadful numbers for Mr HarbourSide Mansion. And the 22 combined for the Abbott/Dutton loon wing is enough to put some lead in their pencil.
28 – Turnbull
49 – Bishop/Abbott/Dutton
23 – Don’t Know/Don’t Care
And why has ScoMo been left off as a choice?
Further to my 6.10 post, I wonder if we will see any legal prosecution of alleged water thefts and fraud in NSW? The amounts are far larger. Gladys?
sprocket_ @ #88 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:22 am
Fairly obvious reason I would’ve thought.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Quite varied fare today.
Here’s Tony Wright’s take on Newspoll 30.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-sound-and-the-fury-of-30-newspoll-losses-20180408-p4z8fe.html
Pontificating Paul Kelly says the election’s there to be won by Turnbull.
https://outline.com/r2GFcm
And PvO says Turnbull still has time.
https://outline.com/x92W7V
But Simon Benson is of the view that the Coalition party room is a divided cabal torn between hope and despair and rendered immobile as it convulses over its future. A miserable mob with np hope, he says.
https://outline.com/eDcqMZ
Michelle Grattan has something to say about Newspoll 30.
https://theconversation.com/government-loses-30th-consecutive-newspoll-despite-slight-improvement-94639
Richo tells us how the efforts of the Liberals to spin their way out of this Newspoll-led embarrassment have been going on for months.
https://outline.com/YHBaa3
Katharine Murphy reckons the government’s habit of self-destruction seems so ingrained it’s hard to see them shifting
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/08/hard-times-have-come-for-coalition-and-nothing-will-change
Urban Wronski headlines with “Tony Abbott’s great big backward slow bicycle race to nowhere.”
https://urbanwronski.com/2018/04/08/tony-abbotts-great-big-backward-slow-bicycle-race-to-nowhere/
Dennis Shanahan says that Turnbull has to change in order to survive.
https://outline.com/jMDxH7
Here’s my take.
https://www.optimizely.com/anz/optimization-glossary/type-1-error/
Charles Purcell says it’s time to stop running Australia like it’s an episode of Game Of Thrones.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-time-to-stop-running-australia-like-it-s-an-episode-of-game-of-thrones-20180408-p4z8es.html
Amanda Vanstone tells us to stop thinking about Abbott who doesn’t hold a candle to Turnbull. She clearly doesn’t have any time for Abbott.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/face-it-malcolm-turnbull-is-streets-ahead-of-tony-abbott-20180408-p4z8g0.html
Jess Irvine reckons Turnbull would be wrong to give us tax cuts in the budget.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/turnbull-is-wrong-to-give-us-tax-cuts-in-the-budget-20180408-p4z8dl.html
Why we must vaccinate for flu at the right time.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/i-know-what-flu-can-do-and-why-we-must-vaccinate-at-the-right-time-20180408-p4z8dh.html
Tony Abbott insists he is not about to challenge Malcolm Turnbull for the prime ministership, saying the last thing he wants is instability in the government. That’s not how it looks, Tone!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-shouldnt-dwell-on-the-past-tony-abbott-20180408-h0yhxr.html
A freeze in negotiations between the Trump administration and China over an escalating trade conflict has skittish investors around the world bracing for months of potential volatility after another sell-off on Wall Street.
https://outline.com/yGDDR5
Michael West writes that the Australian Tax Office has just introduced a pilot plan which is a big worry. It has begun to outsource its debt recovery to external law firms so those who owe money will also pick up a hefty legal bill.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/tax-office-puts-foxes-in-charge-of-henhouse-again-for-small-business/
It seems the elite will be the winners when it comes to Sydney’s new stadia.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/premium-seats-could-double-at-new-sydney-stadium-documents-20180408-p4z8er.html
Unions will campaign ahead of this year’s state election for the Andrews government to make ‘wage theft’ a crime and punishable by up to 10 years in jail.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/push-to-jail-employers-for-up-to-10-years-for-wage-theft-20180407-p4z8ap.html
Australia’s consumer watchdog claims to have proof that 5G internet will be powerful enough to allow smartphones to compete with home internet connections by the year 2020.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2018/04/08/5g-nbn-accc/
Professor Andrew Hopkins writes that the Nationals should support carbon farming, not coal.
https://theconversation.com/the-nationals-should-support-carbon-farming-not-coal-94112
The Turnbull government is pushing for a deal with Washington that would let Australian police take a warrant directly to US tech companies and quickly access a suspected criminal’s data.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/police-could-access-us-cloud-data-under-planned-crime-fighting-deal-20180407-p4z8c0.html
The Age editorial wonders who is watching the tax collectors.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/tax/who-is-watching-the-tax-collectors-20180408-p4z8dm.html
The Turnbull government’s National Energy Guarantee could help deliver increased investment in a fleet of mid-life coal-fired power stations.
https://outline.com/yGDDR5
News Corporation is struggling to mount a legal defence to its allegations against actor Geoffrey Rush. And then there’s the chilling effect on the #metoo campaign. Hannah Marshall from Marque Lawyers breaks it down.
https://newmatilda.com/2018/04/08/rushing-judgement-daily-telegraph-versus-geoffrey-rush-explained/
Hooray!!! One of Queensland’s largest irrigators is expected to be charged with fraud within weeks.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/09/one-of-queenslands-largest-irrigators-expected-to-be-charged-with
Telstra has unveiled a plan to ameliorate consumers’ NBN woes.
https://outline.com/r2GFcm
A new study of the Jewish community in Australia has revealed a dramatically lower rate of support for Israel and Zionism.
https://newmatilda.com/2018/04/08/days-blind-support-israel-among-australian-jews/
The events of last week show News Corp Australia is playing hard ball with Cricket Australia officials who are trying not to be distracted by the fallout from the ball tampering scandal in South Africa.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/news-corp-plays-hardball-as-tensions-rise-in-battle-for-cricket-20180408-p4z8ew.html
Almost all city train lines are more delayed now than they were 20 years ago, official data shows. Melbourne’s roads and public transport system are struggling to keep up with a population boom that has seen around 1 million people added to the city since 2006. On the Metro Trains system, a huge increase in patronage has created significant overcrowding during peak periods and increased “dwell times” – the time taken for people to get on and off at stations.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-s-booming-population-takes-its-toll-on-city-s-trains-20180330-p4z72b.html
Australia will reach a record $230 billion in energy exports this financial year driven by an LNG and oil boom.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/lng-to-drive-record-230b-in-energy-exports-20180406-p4z88n.html
High-profile barrister Charles Waterstreet has declared bankruptcy, casting doubt on his ability to continue practising at the Sydney Bar.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/charles-waterstreet-s-future-as-barrister-in-doubt-as-he-declares-bankruptcy-20180406-p4z888.html
Cartoon Corner (Where is Matt Golding?)
David Rowe loves bedroom scenes. And look at Monash on the wall.








Mark David has gone troppo and has given us six contributions today.
Glen Le Lievre serves up breakfast for Malcolm.
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/982953568490504192
Jon Kudelka with a little beauty!
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b79dc083af8f7d1f7e2d065f4196c8ac
Sean Leahy on comebacks.
A few more in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-april-9-2018-20180408-h0yhu3.html
Trump fought fire legislation and refused to install sprinklers on residential floors of Trump Tower
President Donald Trump lobbied not to have sprinklers installed on the residential floors of his New York properties.
After one person died in a fire at Trump Tower on Saturday, CBS News noted that Trump had not fought against legislation to require sprinklers in residential skyscrapers.
The New York Times reported in 1999 that Trump opposed the legislation, claiming that he could not afford to put sprinklers in his buildings
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/trump-fought-fire-legislation-refused-install-sprinklers-residential-floors-trump-tower/
‘Take that down!’: Fox host Howard Kurtz panic after graphic shows Fox News is least trusted network
In what was undoubtedly a painful moment on Fox News this morning, media analyst Howard Kurtz frantically implored his producer to take down a graphic that showed Fox is the least trusted of the big three cable networks.
“Speaking of fake news, there is a new poll out from Monmouth University.’Do the media report fake news regularly or occasionally?’ 77 percent say yes,” Kurtz exclaimed before noticing the graphic instead showed “Who do you trust more?” with CNN at 48 percent, MSNBC at 45 percent and Fox News bring up the rear at 30 percent.
“That is not the graphic we are looking for. Hold off,” the Fox News host protested before pleading, “Take that down, please.”
But too late.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/take-watch-fox-host-howard-kurtz-panic-graphic-shows-fox-news-least-trusted-network/
Oh, for god’s sake! Trump is getting the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ back together again!
Except, this time it’s going to be to go to war against China. Trade War. And yes, Australia has already signed up to take part.
Apparently this is the way Trump is going to bring China to heel. Use the economic might of a gaggle of countries against China to bring it to heel, correctly value the Renminbi, stop it ripping off copyright and patented products, and whatever else is roiling his tiny mind.
Do I think Turnbull will use this as his Black Swan event? You bet I do!
Im starting to think they are more likely to switch to Bishop prior to going to an election.
Even if Turnbull is the most popular leader, if they stick with him, and a team that is expected to lose, things will only deteriorate, they have to look like they have a plan to win to ‘motivate the troops’.
I think Bishop would be a flawed leader, but so is Barnaby, and they made him Deputy PM.
The strength of Bishop, is she could be a symbol of change, the first female PM of the Liberal party, she would surely win back some of the female vote, which has been a weakness for the LNP for a long time. It could help them across the board, its hard to see any other strategy that could cut through in marginal seats than that.
The votes she would lose from conservatives who dont want a woman in charge would come back as preferences.
bug1 @ #95 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:22 am
The fatal flaw in that plan is that it would well and truly expose Bishop for the lightweight she is. There’s a very good reason she hasn’t been given, nor has she wanted any ministry other than one where she gets to swan around the world attending celebrity events. In every other role she’s been tried she has failed. She could never survive being under that big a spotlight.
Dan G
And I doubt whether her pride would permit her to act as the face of the libs for a defeat.
Yea i know she is flawed, but you would think she has learnt something about managing her weaknesses after being deputy leaders for so long.
She would have to be a different style of leader than we a used to. She would have to keep her hands clean and push responsibilities onto others. It might work for long enough to get to a quick election.
So are we up to ‘Good Government starts today’?
Morning bludgers
C@t
China has cornered the world market with respect to trading of goods.
Trade deficit is not an issue per say. The real issue is the amount of money and bonds owed to China by the USA. If China wanted to call it in, the USA would be stuffed. Does Trump even get that?!