Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Newspoll everyone has been waiting for is in all other respects a dull, steady, status quo result.

Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.

As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).

For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.

Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:

• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.

• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.

• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 17
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  1. lizzie;

    Her pride would be comforted by being the actual PM, not deputy, or acting. And first female PM for the Liberals.

    Her career has nowhere to go now anyway, so she has nothing to lose.

  3. China has the advantage of huge market share and being a one party state dictates precisely what, when and where has to be produced How China does business is primarily determined by the state.
    China buying all the US debt, has enabled them to tell the US to shut the f up so they can proceed with their push in the South China Sea unimpeded, and cornering the market in buying up minerals from third world countries to enable them to produce goods on a large scale etc.

  4. Good Morning

    No denying what right wing Labor stalwart Wayne Swan has been saying. Neo Liberal economics is dead.

    Until the LNP ditch the IPA and Murdoch wish list of policy they are doomed. Its that simple.

    The polls have been crystal clear. The first 30 polls loss were due to the horror budget. The second thirty due to the promise of change away from neo liberalism being shown to be a dashed hope for voters.

    The voters message. This is NOT a conservative country.

  6. Vic – the US Fed would just buy the bonds the Chinese sold and that would remove the threat.

    The US wants jobs back and protection for its IP – not unreasonable aims even as much as I dislike trump.

    If the Chinese go off to the WTO etc they are then seen as wanting the protection of a rules based world order but at the same time ignoring rules they don’t like.

  9. bug1: Yet, Bishop doesn’t want to be PM like what happen in Canada. Kim Campbell was Canada’s first (and only) female PM and she was handed a hospital pass and lead her party to a record defeat that fragmented her party which took a decade to put back together.

  10. Vic – the Fed would ‘create’ whatever amount required as it did during the GFC.

    Some might say thats not all according to Hoyle – but there you go.

    But it would create problems for the Chinese as well.

    The massive trade imbalance with the US cannot go on indefinitely.

  11. Vic,
    You might be interested in this China Trade War with America analysis Bloomberg put up yesterday:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-04-06/this-is-what-a-trade-war-with-china-would-actually-look-like

    Recent threats to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, coupled with China’s own retaliatory announcements have raised the prospects of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. But what is a trade war, and what would be the economic ramifications if there were one? Brad Setser, the Steven A. Tananbaum senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, joins us on this week’s Odd Lots to help answer those questions. Brad has been writing about trade issues for many years, and explains what exactly we’re seeing now, how the current trade actions differ from standard moves on trade, and where ultimately all these actions might go.

    🙂

  12. If the National Accounts are swimming in extra money – as some commentators have implied – I could see a late switch to Bishop a day before the winter recess. She could then dominate women’s magazines and FM radio over winter before a ‘snap’ spring election.

    There will be no press conferences. No leader’s debates. No interaction with real people. Lots of vision of Jules jogging in the morning. Hard hats on for visit to friendly liberal workshops. Prada for lunch time liberal owner shop visits and full haute culture for the obligatory evening charity gala. Rinse and repeat x34 days.

    There will be a big liberal tax bribe. Jules smiling vision to the max.
    There will be a big Labor Bad scare campaign. Angry Mesma pictures.

    That’s it.

    Yep. I can see the filth going for that.

  13. AE

    Filth is right. That describes exactly the campaign we are going to see. Despite it not helping the polling we are going to see far more scare campaigns dog whistling to the racists as the LNP try and save the furniture by appealing to the One Nation voters.

    This is why Abbott thinks he has a chance of becoming leader again.

    They are too captured by that right to understand that its their economic policy agenda that is the toxic poison for their party.

  16. “Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results).”….

    Oh WOW, the Coalition are doing well, this is actually good news for the Coalition…. It’s fantastic…. Oh dear.

  19. Gillard did the glamour shots all over the Womens Weekly which hit the newsstands around the time of the election. Made no difference whatsoever.

    In the same way, Cheryl Kernot’s boa wearing appearance in the same mag was seen as a major error.

    Fluff is fluff.

  20. So the federal budget is 8 May, just four weeks away. This leaves room for Newpoll to be survey people again before the budget, if it sticks to a three week cycle. Then a poll after the budget to gage a reaction.

  21. Fairman; Does she really not want to be PM, or is she just being a loyal deputy ?

    It is a poison chalice, and im sure all contenders can see that, so whoever takes it on will have to be pushed into it to a certain extent.

    Conservatives would see some benefit of her taking them to the election, it will likely finish her, clearing the deck for the positions deputy leader of the opposition, which the party needs to open up to someone else rather than keep it filled with a placeholder.

    Progressive Liberals could support her because they need a plan to win, and she is better than any other alternative to Turnbull.

    When the Libs lose government they will be destroyed, Turbull will be gone, their progressive have nobody else other than deeply disliked conservatives that would be a disaster (Abbott and Dutton).

    The Libs really need strong leadership, remember when they went through those years after Rudd won, with Brendon Nelson as leader, then Turnbull as opposition leader was almost as bad as he didnt have authority.

    Turbull was the backup plan last time. Its all or nothing this time, they are sure to try something drastic.

  22. Katherine Murphy @murpharoo

    Just a note on the Coalition collective thesis that we can win because people don’t like Bill Shorten: Tony Abbott won in 2013 #auspol

  25. Ides of March

    I am curious as to what Labor will be putting forward in their budget reply.
    Due to the imputations policy changes Labor has put out, I feel that personal income tax cuts is on the table. It would make sense to go down this path to counter the corporate tax cuts the fiberals are pursuing. Also as wages have flatlined and living costs have increased across the board, personal income tax cuts for middle Australian income earners, is not the silliest option.

  26. When the Liberals are in Opposition with a secure Labor Government in power, they change leaders almost annually until they get someone who looks like a winner and Labor starts to look wobbly. That was the experience in NSW from 1976 – 1986 (Neville Wran) and 1995-2005 (Bob Carr). The wobbles in Labor started after the long term leader leaves the scene.

  27. Glad that is over.

    Now we can get back to watching Turnbull play ‘hide the turd’ with energy policy…. and climate policy… and ………

  28. “@BBCNewsnight
    EXCLUSIVE: Newsnight has obtained astonishing footage from the Russian factory that developed the nerve agent used in the Salisbury chemical attack”
    The BBC has as much credibility as RT or Fox these days. Anything they say is worthless.

  29. Bug1, “those years” didn’t last very long unfortunately

    There were only two of “those years”, basically calendar 2008 and 2009.

    P.S #WeatheronPB: Sydney’s endless Summer continues, today’s forecast max 33-35, back to the 30s from mid week following a brief cool change late today.

  31. Canberra is to reach a high of 30 degrees today.

    Adelaide had mid 30°’s yesterday, same predicted for today (already 25°) and again tomorrow.

    Rather unseasonably unreasonable.

  32. “He’s lost 30 consecutive Newspolls, but Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm will declare it is “business as usual”. Via @ErykBagshaw”
    .
    Someone should remind Truffles it is his “business as usual” that took him to 30 losses in a row.

  35. Well well, Greens Party up and Labor down on primaries with a very close 2PP. That’ll bring a few Labor partisan bludgers back to earth a bit. 😆

  36. Pete EVANS
    @911CORLEBRA777
    ·
    24m
    Great. One delusional fool advising an even bigger delusional fool. Embrace the chaos

    Kyle Griffin
    @kylegriffin1
    John Bolton skewed intelligence, people who worked with him claim.

    Ex-colleagues tell ProPublica that Bolton—whose job will be to fairly present info to Trump—resists input that doesn’t fit his biases and retaliates against people he disagrees with. (link: https://www.propublica.org/article/john-bolton-national-security-adviser-intelligence) propublica.org/article/john-b…

  37. #weatheronPB

    Go Dau is expecting 37 today.

    It’s a rather chilly 24 at the moment.

    BRRrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!! 🙂

  39. If they decide to stick with Turnbull, and aim to lose with dignity (a strategy that has merit), then it still makes sense for them to go to an election earlier rather than later IMO.

    If Turnbull stays leader and drags it out, he will be seen as ‘dead man walking’, he will be increasingly isolated as the electorate, supporters, and more peers plan for (and wish for) his departure.

    So i see the election in late Spring, after the footy, when people should be in a good mood.

  40. Charles ListerVerified account@Charles_Lister
    51m51 minutes ago

    I’m told the White House is close to a decision on whether to hit #Syria after last night’s #Douma CW attack.

    Principals meeting (incl. #Bolton) tonight will be presented w. an expansive list of potential targets; mostly military, intel & suspected munitions & CW infrastructure.

  41. Suggesting the BBC is on a par with Fox News must be a joke surely? While all news organisations are beset by pressures from political or business bosses, I would suggest that most of the listening/watching world would take information from the BBC as a lot more likely to be accurate than most other news organisations. Fox would be somewhere near Russia Today in its veracity and bias I would think. Where this leaves the emasculated/pathetic/weak ABC is anyone’s guess. Probably still above anything offered by the commercial media in Oz anyway.

  46. Steeve;

    Those couple of years of years sowed the seeds of the Libs current problems, they need to do better than that.
    They need to find a way to build popular leadership within the party (popular with the electorate) or they will continue to erode their credibility with failed leaders such as Abbott and Hockey.

  48. Former prime minister Tony Abbott has used his successor’s 30th consecutive Newspoll loss to spruik his alternative policy agenda, saying politics is not about personality and defending his right to engage in public debate.

    In the wake of the widely expected poll result, senior government ministers have rallied around Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, insisting he is the right person to lead the Coalition to the next election and emphasising the importance of having a united team.

    Mr Turnbull notched up his 30th two-party preferred loss overnight, reaching the benchmark he cited when challenging Mr Abbott for the leadership in September 2015, alongside a promise to provide better economic leadership and traditional cabinet government.

    “Government is hard. Malcolm Turnbull and I know this better than anyone. Government is hard. But the best way to be a good government is to have clear policies, it’s to have a united team and it’s to be obviously distinct from your opponents,” Mr Abbott said on Monday morning in response to the poll.

    Mr Abbott also used the occasion to renew his calls for reduced immigration to improve employment levels and housing affordability, a position that has previously been slapped down by senior cabinet ministers.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/government-is-hard-says-abbott-in-response-to-his-successor-s-30th-newspoll-loss-20180409-p4z8hm.html

  50. bug1, the Lib’s problems extend way beyond leaders. The word policies comes to mind. They’re a policy faction ridden cabal incapable of being led. Maybe Moses or Attila, if they’d take it on.

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