Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.
As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).
For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.
Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:
• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.
• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.
• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.
zoomster @ #344 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:31 pm
I have no recollection of any involvement in 2016. It must have been very low key if there was any.
Yes, I was surprised she bobbed up in Batman. Fortunately it did not cost Ged too many votes.
Lol!
# WeatheronPB: 36.2 at Sydney Airport, a new April record.
Cant be many left in the leadership spill date sweepstake.
Rudd comments are unhelpful.
Anyway, that is enough space and energy wasted on that rat.
I am celebrating 30 newspoll wins by Labor!
Confessions @ #352 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:36 pm
So here we have it!
The Rudd haters are now embracing Latham.
:lol 😆 😆
Steve777:
So glad I don’t live in Sydney!
Fess
Now that is truly hilarious!!
bemused
You embraced Latham long ago, given his attitude to Gillard.
Rudd is a clear and present danger the public will consider when at the ballot box.
The voter will think – if I vote Labor will Rudd tear it down again… ?
Vic:
Total irony.
Rudd’s ego and bitterness is matched only by that of Latham’s. 😀
Anyway, bemused, do you support Rudd’s attacks on Shorten?
steve davis @ #354 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 11:37 am
Nope:
When Trumble hits 31 bad newspolls, I will be eliminating both C@t and Booleanbach. Otherwise they could still be in contention after 40, 50 0r 60 bad polls.
The Weather Vane making the most of his time in the media spotlight.
Puffytmd says:
Monday, April 9, 2018 at 1:38 pm
I am celebrating 30 newspoll wins by Labor!
Yes, it’s about time we let Labor take ownership of these winning polls.
Measured marketing of good policies, plus stability, are rewarded.
Mal doesn’t want to own them, anyway.
zoomster @ #360 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:42 pm
Nope!
I picked him for what he was long before he became LOTO and said so at the time.
I was aghast when he became LOTO.
Gillard lacked any serious malevolence such as Latham had, but was gifted with negative charisma and the ability to repel votes. Sad really as she seems to have had some other good attributes.
zoomster @ #363 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:44 pm
What attack?
Not a single MSM journo has questioned this, AFAIK
Lol @Rex, very few outside of a few obsessives here will be thinking about Rudd at the next election.
And El Niño is neutral.
Dan
Looks like the first 2 bludgers are going to be scratched soon.
Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
30m30 minutes ago
Why a leadership challenge would do more harm than good, even if an alternative had popular support: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/newspoll-no-alternative-is-popular-enough-to-justify-costs-associated-with-removing-a-pm/news-story/0cd00a198444e4faea66fcc040690c22 … @australian #auspol
J341983 @ #370 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:55 pm
I will be focussed on getting my local ALP candidate elected and Julia Banks out on her sorry arse.
Once again, without moving my address, I have switched electorates as a result of the redistribution (assuming it is accepted) and find myself in Chisholm. I was previously in Bruce and that is now very safe for Labor.
I am looking forward to the pre-selection being finalised and the campaign started. Chisholm will be tough to win.
Test
Just to be clear then…
Steve777 @ #353 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:37 pm
I’m having a pair of aircons installed. It’s mid-autumn. The idea was more to just have them for next summer than to use them now.
It’s hot enough today that I might actually run them once they’re in.
#CrazyWeatheronPB
J341983 @ #370 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:55 pm
Actually, I will be thinking about Rudd, but not in the way you and others would mean.
Chisholm has a large Chinese-Australian population and I would hope the candidate gets Kevin Rudd along to a couple of campaign functions as he is extremely population with the Chinese community and would be a great campaign asset.
The Libs worked hard in the Chinese community last time, seeming to focus on some fundy ‘Christian’ churches with a large Chinese congregation. That needs to be countered.
It shouldnt be this hot. In April. Almost mid Autumn. 32 in my neck of Sydney.
Ides of March not.logged in @ #415 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 12:04 pm
15 degrees here struggling to reach the max of 20. Light showers.
#weatheronPB
Unbearably hot at football yesterday on the artificial surface at Chatswood High School.
This Saturday – 31 degrees
Rudd is simply a narcissist suffering relevance deprivation syndrome. It’s a condition that will remain with him. And it will quietly fester in the ranks of the ALP.
Rudd hates Turnbull, but he despises Shorten for what he sees as Shortens pivotal role in his decapitation. Kevin 18 ain’t going away.
Dan, I seem to recall I lodged an “I agree with Chinda” vote at the time, but if you want to count him (her?) as the entrant I won’t insist on a share of the prize money. (:-;)
“Former PM @TonyAbbottMHR raised prospect of “compulsory acquisition” of Liddell power plant today re @AndyVesey_AGL , Unprompted. Says enough jawboning time for strong arm “
Who’d have thought. Tony Abbott is a leftie pinko socialist.
But there’s no ‘Sovereign Risk’. That would only apply if a Labor backbench said it.
So he gives Shorten no points for voting him back in again. No logic.
The butthead who headbutted well known butthead Tony Abbott has been sentenced to 6 months’ jail, with a minimum of 2 months to serve.
Some might think that a bit harsh. Some might say he should have got a medal, or maybe a knighthood. Of course I would never say such a thing.
MT mentioned 30 news polls because of at least 2reasons:
1. He really wanted to emphasise that TA has lost public trust
2. He never thought he will never get to 30 news polls eggs. He must have thought” moi MT 30 consecutive bad polls Never , no way.” He blew up on 2016 election night because He was genuinely surprised with the result and as results rolled in he got angrier and angrier with public. He thought he just had to show up for campaign and people were dying to vote for LNP. We all know how awful his campaign was. I never imagined that he was such a bad campaigner.
“Former PM @TonyAbbottMHR raised prospect of “compulsory acquisition” of Liddell power plant today re @AndyVesey_AGL , Unprompted. Says enough jawboning time for strong arm “
Tones has never held a principle that he wouldn’t shamelessly abandon in a heartbeat to indulge his insatiable lust for power, and revenge upon those who deny it to him.
‘fess. You know the only thing saving Perth from being the most remote city on the planet?
lizzie @ #386 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:38 pm
Shorten will be aware of Rudds terms – a high end diplomatic posting, or else !!
JM @ #389 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:43 pm
I look forward to conservative High Priest Paul Kellys blistering attack on ‘Abbotts socialistic madness’
Yay! Adelaide just broke the April record too! 36.6°C
Well, this is one way to spin 30 losing Newspolls in a row for the government, Ciobo stood up, and with a straight face to camera, said, “This is the 30th Newspoll where Bill Shorten has been behind Malcolm Turnbull as Preferred Prime Minister.”
🙄
The KRudd tweet – if it is genuine – is a genuine ‘Meh’ event. I fail to see the incurable damage it has caused.
More interesting is the vulcanic reaction from various bludgers. Time for a bex and a good nap. Sweet dreams of Newspoll #30. Not to mention that Shorten has some timing like a 67-13-7 record at the moment. Just about as good as the 1996 Chicago Bulls season!
I would just like to add that Bill Shorten needs to learn how to pronounce Joondalup properly. It is certainly not ‘Joondaloop’!
Looks like Sydney streets will be a mess of closures and excavations for some time yet – probably in the lead up to the state election.
MT has a very high opinion of himself. Does he realise that he earned a lot of money because of Hughes and Wran?
He genuinely believes in free market. That is the reason it is astounding that he is interfering in Liddel powet station?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #396 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:59 pm
Andrew, my only concern is that the media would pick it up and run it for a bit of ‘balance’, thereby providing a welcome distraction for Trumble and co. So far, it has stayed where it belongs, in cyber-narcissistic space. So happy to leave and return to the present and future, not the past.