Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Newspoll everyone has been waiting for is in all other respects a dull, steady, status quo result.

Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.

As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).

For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.

Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:

• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.

• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.

• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Andrew_Earlwood @ #396 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:59 pm

    The KRudd tweet – if it is genuine – is a genuine ‘Meh’ event. I fail to see the incurable damage it has caused.

    More interesting is the vulcanic reaction from various bludgers. Time for a bex and a good nap. Sweet dreams of Newspoll #30. Not to mention that Shorten has some timing like a 67-13-7 record at the moment. Just about as good as the 1996 Chicago Bulls season!

    Ahhh, but you are a rational being and not a compulsive Rudd hater.

  2. In fact, thinking about it, post a Shorten win, if indeed he wins, a project to kind of rewrite the Rudd-Gillard years and to try and bring those two and Swanny back onto a united page, not to be rolled out in public in any form until the second Shorten term, might not be a bad idea.

  3. In fact a former WA cabinet member tells a story of one of the players in Rudd-Gillard years, coming into the first election strategy meeting with a whole lot of polls and ideas for running on the polls, and the leader cutting them off at the ankles, with, “I’m not interested in what the polls say, tell me how to make them say what we want about the policies we want in x weeks and then I’m interested”. No further contribution.

  4. WeWantPaul @ #495 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 1:48 pm

    In fact, thinking about it, post a Shorten win, if indeed he wins, a project to kind of rewrite the Rudd-Gillard years and to try and bring those two and Swanny back onto a united page, not to be rolled out in public in any form until the second Shorten term, might not be a bad idea.

    If Rudd doesn’t quit it with the undermining tweets and unhelpful, irrelevant, vengeful commentary all he is going to do is alienate himself from his former colleagues and from Labor members who want to see a Labor government. And all that does is make his presence at party functions as a former PM awkward, most of all for him as it will be clear his presence isn’t wanted and is only tolerated.

  5. WeWantPaul @ #457 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 3:51 pm

    In fact a former WA cabinet member tells a story of one of the players in Rudd-Gillard years, coming into the first election strategy meeting with a whole lot of polls and ideas for running on the polls, and the leader cutting them off at the ankles, with, “I’m not interested in what the polls say, tell me how to make them say what we want about the policies we want in x weeks and then I’m interested”. No further contribution.

    I’d say Steven Smith had a walk-on role in there. 🙂

  6. I stand corrected.

    According to Wiki Capalaba is a thriving suburb of Redlands (where ever that is) and boasts shopping malls and an industrial area .

  7. Paul KarpVerified account@Paul_Karp
    2h2 hours ago

    Ciobo: “too early for us to start intervening” (by compulsorily acquiring Liddell)…but not ruling it out. #auspol

    The Weather Vane’s madness not completely rejected out of hand by his colleagues.

    Election now so we can end this farce.

  8. When Norman Farming is charged with fraud over irrigation, will the company be forced to let the dammed-up water flow away? I do hope so.

  9. C@tmomma @ #395 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 11:57 am

    Well, this is one way to spin 30 losing Newspolls in a row for the government, Ciobo stood up, and with a straight face to camera, said, “This is the 30th Newspoll where Bill Shorten has been behind Malcolm Turnbull as Preferred Prime Minister.”

    🙄

    Actually that’s under selling Turnbull.

    IIRC he’s been the preferred PM in every NewsPoll since taking over which is much more than 30.

    So even their panicked attempts at spin can’t get it right!!! 🙂

  10. When I think back on all the great privatisation debates we have had over the last few decades the idea that a Tory Prime Minister is seriously suggesting his government might buy a coal-fired power station that was sold by the NSW Government for virtually nothing does my head in.

    Kerry Packer famously sold his television network to Alan Bond and bought it back for a fraction of the price.

    AGL may pull off a similar deal, even though it seems they are reluctant sellers. But if the price keeps going up …

  11. “AGL may pull off a similar deal, even though it seems they are reluctant sellers. But if the price keeps going up …”

    AGL have a solid, sensible plan for the future, they are open to billions in taxpayer money coming to them for next to nothing.

  12. rossmcg @ #478 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:12 pm

    When I think back on all the great privatisation debates we have had over the last few decades the idea that a Tory Prime Minister is seriously suggesting his government might buy a coal-fired power station that was sold by the NSW Government for virtually nothing does my head in.

    Kerry Packer famously sold his television network to Alan Bond and bought it back for a fraction of the price.

    AGL may pull off a similar deal, even though it seems they are reluctant sellers. But if the price keeps going up …

    IT would be a PR disaster if AGL looked as if they held out for an inflated price.

    The polls tell us people want renewable energy. Selling out to the denialists I can’t see happening.

  13. Ides of March not.logged in says:
    Monday, April 9, 2018 at 3:11 pm
    Citizen

    With the exception of maybe Coogee (Lib held – marginal) every other directly affected state electorate is held by either an independent (Sydney) or Labor (Maroubra, Heffron). I think it may only affect Coogee.

    The next two closet electorates are held by The Greens (Newtown, Balmain). After that is Vaucluse which is solid Liberal.

    It’s not the suburban portion of the line that is causing most of the trouble (e.g. a lot has been completed along Anzac parade) but the CBD and Surry Hills portions. Store owners are furious and that feeds into statewide coverage by the likes of SMH and ABC.

  14. The ALP only have themselves to blame for Rudds shadow still menacingly hovering over them.

    If they had’ve done the right and proper thing in expelling him the threat wouldn’t exist.

  15. When I think back on all the great privatisation debates we have had over the last few decades the idea that a Tory Prime Minister is seriously suggesting his government might buy a coal-fired power station that was sold by the NSW Government for virtually nothing does my head in.

    Labor should ask for a cost benefit analysis on any purchase or compulsory acquisition.

    This is 2018 not 1918 after all.

  16. George St in the CBD was also a mess for months and months.

    Yet again the NSW Libs got an easy run in the MSM over it.

    Plus the various Train stuff ups as well – but its changing a bit now.

  17. A simple Gippsland town :

    MOE – usually referred to as MO —- but proper pronunciation – is Moee

    ( local surrounding townies say that MOE is an abbreviation for Moccasins On Everyone – as an ex- Moe local hope I don’t upset my fellow Gippslanders )

  18. Rex Douglas @ #487 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:22 pm

    The ALP only have themselves to blame for Rudds shadow still menacingly hovering over them.

    If they had’ve done the right and proper thing in expelling him the threat wouldn’t exist.

    And we would have been spared the Gillard Govt but got Abbott 3 years earlier.
    Great idea Rex. 😐

  19. Citizen

    Those people probably already vote for Alex Greenwich if they live nearby (the indy for Syd). I note that Clover Moore is popular with small business at the council level and it might transfer over given Greenwich is her annointed replacement at the state level.

    Otherwise I dont think the negative coverage will by itself factor into a lot of voters minds. Maybe as part of an overall image of public transport problems across Sydney.

  20. bemused @ #491 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:27 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #487 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:22 pm

    The ALP only have themselves to blame for Rudds shadow still menacingly hovering over them.

    If they had’ve done the right and proper thing in expelling him the threat wouldn’t exist.

    And we would have been spared the Gillard Govt but got Abbott 3 years earlier.
    Great idea Rex. 😐

    If Rudd had’ve accepted his failings as leader and was a team player we’d possibly still have a Labor/Green Govt that would be delivering for its environment and its people who’d feel good about themselves rather than ashamed of our current state of nation.

  21. As a non political party member I have no problem with Rudd commenting/tweeting about ALP policy, but FFS I wish he would get over the shite from when he was tossed and concentrate on helping to remove the conservatives .
    It does the ALP no amount of damage with him and his tweets being all about him.
    All it does is remind the electorate of the shite fight the previous ALP govt got themselves into and gave us Abbott.
    This country needs competentcy in govt not the numpties we have at present. He should be directing any messaging in that direction. FFS Kev, get over the hate mate.

  22. I wonder if the shut down of the Epping-Chatswood line for 7 months from September 2018 to April 2019 will have an impact on Labor’s chances of regaining Ryde.

    NSW State Election is March 2019.

  23. Rex Douglas @ #493 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:33 pm

    bemused @ #491 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:27 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #487 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:22 pm

    The ALP only have themselves to blame for Rudds shadow still menacingly hovering over them.

    If they had’ve done the right and proper thing in expelling him the threat wouldn’t exist.

    And we would have been spared the Gillard Govt but got Abbott 3 years earlier.
    Great idea Rex. 😐

    If Rudd had’ve accepted his failings as leader and was a team player we’d possibly still have a Labor/Green Govt that would be delivering for its environment and its people who’d feel good about themselves rather than ashamed of our current state of nation.

    If he had not stood in 2010, it was all over for Gillard.
    Ponder that Rex.

  24. rossmcg @ #216 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    Shorten tells Turnbull to get out and see the real people in places like Midland … I’d like to see that.

    I have seen Brian Trumble doing unscripted with unvetted, common people. It made apparent there are good reasons the L/NP tightly control Brian’s interactions with voters (hand picked, identity checked at the door etc) and don’t video Brian’s unscripted interactions with common voters and upload them to Facebook et. al. They are the same reasons that you won’t see Trumble doing Town Halls and the like.

    Brian doing unscripted with unvetted common voters is a sight to behold, and not one the L/NP brains trust want broadcast on Facebook Live or anywhere else.

  25. Re Capalaba – Fess, like you I thought it would have a Spanish sort of sound before we moved to Brisvegas. But most of the others are about right – local pronounceration is Ca PAL a bar, or /kəˈpæləbɑː/ in international phonetics. It’s quite near Murrarie, which looks like murrArey but is pronounced MURReree. It may have been the weird suburb names in the south that drove us to the northern burbs. Or not.

  26. bemused @ #497 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:40 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #493 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:33 pm

    bemused @ #491 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:27 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #487 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:22 pm

    The ALP only have themselves to blame for Rudds shadow still menacingly hovering over them.

    If they had’ve done the right and proper thing in expelling him the threat wouldn’t exist.

    And we would have been spared the Gillard Govt but got Abbott 3 years earlier.
    Great idea Rex. 😐

    If Rudd had’ve accepted his failings as leader and was a team player we’d possibly still have a Labor/Green Govt that would be delivering for its environment and its people who’d feel good about themselves rather than ashamed of our current state of nation.

    If he had not stood in 2010, it was all over for Gillard.
    Ponder that Rex.

    He did an excellent job of destroying Labors polling, no doubt about it.

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