ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

The first ReachTEL poll for the year records an improvement in Malcolm Turnbull’s fortunes. Other news: Tasmania’s election will be held on March 3.

The first ReachTEL poll of the year for Sky News is one of the Coalition’s better results of recent times, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 53-47 to 52-48 from the previous poll on November 28. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 34%; Labor is steady on 36%; the Greens are steady on 10%; and One Nation is down one to 8%.

Malcolm Turnbull also records a strong improvement on his personal ratings, being rated good by 30% (up six), average by 37% (up two) and poor by 32% (down eight). Bill Shorten is on 31% good (up one), 32% average (down four) and 36% poor (up three-and-a-half). Turnbull has increased his lead on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, which typically produces closer results than other pollsters: last time it was 52-48, this time it’s 54-46.

The poll also finds 32% support for a cut in the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than $50 million, with 44% opposed. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated that trade deals were good for employment, compared with 20% for poor; but 49% said Labor should vote against the Trans Pacific Partnership if it “doesn’t protect jobs”, with 20% taking the contrary view.

I’m not exactly sure what the field date was for the poll, but ReachTEL uses robopolling with samples of typically around 2300.

In other news, Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman today called an election for March 3, which means there will be no clash with South Australia this time, as there was in 2010 and 2014. I hope to have a full election guide posted later today, so stay tuned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

738 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Thank you Desert Qlder for the reminder.
    The photographs plastered over the front pages of Daily newspapers of Viet Cong soldiers lying on the grounds of the US diplomatic compound will always remind me of that dreadful conflict along with the photographs of the young woman naked running down the road burning from Napam and the South Viet officer shooting the young man.
    It focused my mind and 12 months later my marble came out. It does have a long lasting impact on my view to wars.

  2. political_alert: The Prime Minister will visit Thales Underwater Systems with the Minister for Defence @MarisePayne and Minister for Defence Industry @cpyne at 9:15am #auspol

  3. VE

    On wage growth our to the right economics ‘institutes’ and business council groups are at one to say it would be ‘bad’.

    Contrast with NZ where about 2 weeks before their election many of their similar groups came out and said that Labour’s plan to do some limited wage increases to see if it would give retail traders a boost was nothing to be afraid of.

  5. rwillingham: Premier @DanielAndrewsMP says he understands frustration over blackouts says there was enough supply problem was distribution faults. Hits out at “loose” commentary over the issue.
    Says talks with companies about compo for residents #SpringSt @abcmelbourne pic.twitter.com/9OZrF3p1xT

  10. The particular power company who had the failures last night puts out that they blame installations of new A/C in the area as excuse no 2.

    You’d think that it wouldn’t be beyond the whit of power companies and the government to organise a simple notification to them of installations at homes and businesses of items that consume more than ‘n’ amount of electricity supplied from the grid.

  12. Too funny.

    Gabor Antalics@GAntalics
    33m33 minutes ago
    IKEA founder #IngvarKamprad dead at 91, gets last laugh as undertaker struggles to assemble #IKEA “Køfn”:

    :large

  13. And, dumb question on us being arms dealers.

    Currently, we don’t even make our own military crap, we import it all. The submarines we don’t need are being built in France or something, all our planes are from the USA.

    Why don’t we focus on ‘not importing any’ before we focus on exporting things?

  14. Barney in Cherating

    Apparently ‘Dog’ is American, so it is OK.
    .
    BK
    Thanks, I will give it to my boss this morning as an ‘assignment’ 🙂

  16. CTar1

    I wasn’t aware that it was my responsibility to inform my power supplier that I had installed an air-con.
    OTOH, I thought the electrician installer might bear some responsibility???

  18. BillCorbett: Hilarious. Insanely well paid media pro forgets to switch to sock puppet account, caught pretending to be a fan of himself. pic.twitter.com/TbCOA2XOPs

  19. ClubeGaffer: PM’s “Little America” plan is all laid out now
    Low wages, insecure work, elitist higher education, exploited migrant labour, privatised healthcare, no social security, corporate tax subsidies & now SELL ARMS TO THE MIDDLE EAST!‍♂️
    #auspol #ausunions theguardian.com/world/2018/jan…

  20. This is from the webpage of the Thales Underwater Warfare company that Turnbull was big-upping this morning:

    SURFACE SHIPS
    New threats and the need to conduct operations in both deep and shallow waters have led to a significant shift in operational requirements. Building on solid credentials and uncomparable skills in the undersea battlespace, Thales works with individual customers to tailor its proven, interoperable solution to the specific needs of any type of surface vessel.

    https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/global/activities/defence/naval-forces/underwater-warfare

    Because Australia really wants to make the world bristle with military hardware and conduct ‘Undersea Warfare’, eh?

  21. FightingTories: The Hon @billshortenmp , Leader of the Opposition, will address the #NPC Tuesday January 30 2018 @PressClubAust pic.twitter.com/FCiC1BO81Z

  23. gt

    The polling for Pyne must be dire.

    I hope so. He’s right up there on my list of politicians I’d like to see ‘gone’.

  24. tobiaschneider: Fitness and social media company Strava releases activity heat map. Excellent for locating military bases (h/t to @Nrg8000). labs.strava.com/heatmap/#6.06/… pic.twitter.com/7zzNcYV42e
    https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/957317886112124928

    stilgherrian: Dear All The Media, the “secret military base” is not being “revealed” if you’re already looking at a satellite photo of it in Google Maps. This fitness app data can reveal some interesting stuff, but I’m not explaining it here.

  25. lizzie

    No such requirement exists and if it’s ‘excuse 2’ you’d think a simple notification would not be a big ask (and sounds sensible if it’s that much of a problem.

  28. (repost as I got caught out by WB’s change of thread when I put it up last night.)

    Not polling or politics!

    Awesome item. If anyone’s got spare hanging around!

    A miniature gemstone discovered in a 3,500-year-old tomb is challenging our understanding of ancient Greek art. Now, nearly three years after it was originally discovered, experts are still trying to fathom how it was crafted.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/26/health/ancient-greek-sealstone-carving/index.html

  29. political_alert: “Malcolm Turnbull should today rule out any further attacks on young Australians who are looking for work”, says Shadow Minister for Social Services Jenny Macklin MP.

    Media release: Government considered cutting payments entirely to under 30s #auspol pic.twitter.com/veGGLIB8QI

  31. CTar1

    Agree regarding excuse by Power company being unaware that customers had installed air conditioners etc. Seriously since when do people tell electricity companies of white goods they have installed in their homes.
    You gotta be shitting me!

  33. gt – re’ getting rid of Pyne bringing about a change of government.

    My list of people who should be gone includes many who are not Coalition politicians. They’re all varieties.

  34. Thales Underwater Warfare company:
    “the undersea battlespace”

    ROFL Have we reached peak jargon?

    ‘Fraid not. There’s always more obfuscation to look forward to.

  35. I wonder if Turnbull is going to again stick his beak in Victorian politics re power outages. Anything to undermine a very good Vic State Labor govt, which I have said in past, is only reason why I have coped with the crappy fed govt we have at present.

  38. CT

    Yeah I have a similar list. Feeney is one that springs immediately to mind out of Labor.

    My comment about the government being gone is precisely because of the point Fess has made.
    Pyne gone means the swing against the government big enough for Labor to win.

  39. Uh-oh.

    Republicans in Congress were divided Sunday over protecting special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, with two senators embracing plans to make it more difficult for President Trump to have him fired but a top House lawmaker declaring them unnecessary.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/republicans-in-congress-divided-over-protecting-mueller-from-being-fired-by-trump/2018/01/28/7da45e34-043f-11e8-94e8-e8b8600ade23_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_hillmueller-132pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.61f9d9b1166a

  40. Victoria

    I think this answers your question.
    Barnaby_Joyce: Andrews desperately begging “look somewhere else”. We said Labor’s power policy would cause blackouts over summer and it has.

  41. Media release: Government considered cutting payments entirely to under 30s #auspol pic.twitter.com/veGGLIB8QI

    Bad day for LNP messaging then?

    Yay defence announcment! 🙂
    Bad electrons Victorian Blackouts! 🙂
    Libs welfare creeps and want to screw over anyone not a donor. 🙁

    And its all Bill Shortens fault anyway!! 🙂

  42. Fess

    Thanks. Another very detailed report which again shows just how many layers there are in this saga.
    I have been wondering of late if in fact Jeff Sessions, Nunes and a few others are all playing the roles of double agents. On the surface appearing to want to stymie the investigation, but in reality have long ago flipped for the prosecution!

  44. Vic:

    Yep, that report shows RICO is still in play even with a sitting President.

    On Nunes and Sessions I doubt either are smart enough to play double agent!

  46. guytaur @ #378 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 6:51 am

    political_alert: “Malcolm Turnbull should today rule out any further attacks on young Australians who are looking for work”, says Shadow Minister for Social Services Jenny Macklin MP.

    Media release: Government considered cutting payments entirely to under 30s #auspol pic.twitter.com/veGGLIB8QI

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    The story about the 2014 budget dropped to the media just in time for Newspoll being in the field. I wonder who dropped that story? 🙂

  47. Confessions @ #388 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 10:04 am

    Uh-oh.

    Republicans in Congress were divided Sunday over protecting special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, with two senators embracing plans to make it more difficult for President Trump to have him fired but a top House lawmaker declaring them unnecessary.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/republicans-in-congress-divided-over-protecting-mueller-from-being-fired-by-trump/2018/01/28/7da45e34-043f-11e8-94e8-e8b8600ade23_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_hillmueller-132pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.61f9d9b1166a

    By allowing it to happen, aren’t the Republicans basically saying to the American people, hey, you now have an Authoritarian despot leading the country and we don’t care!?!

  48. Today’s PvO on the coalition’s economic management credentials and the next election:

    But the chinks in the economic narrative go deeper than this. Turnbull himself shredded the economic credentials of this ­Coalition government when he used economic failure as one of two primary motivators for challenging Tony Abbott. Polling failures (the 30 consecutive defeats to Labor is a score the government is once again creeping up to) and poor economic stewardship (or at least salesmanship) were used to prise a first-term PM out of office less than two years after a thumping election victory. It worked, but it has left the government dis­united and devoid of a consistent narrative spanning its complete time in office. How can the ­Coalition now argue its time in ­office has included “fixing Labor’s economic mess” when Turnbull’s promise in late-2015 was to repair the polls and fix Abbott’s poor economic ­efforts?

    This goes to the heart of why it is unlikely the Coalition can ­recover to win the next election, unless voters’ attention spans are even shorter than we think.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/economic-management-is-no-easy-pitch-for-the-coalition/news-story/2cfc6734400bf67db56466cc2d81cb03

  49. Grimace,
    The story about the 2014 budget dropped to the media just in time for Newspoll being in the field. I wonder who dropped that story?

    Has to be someone in Cabinet at the time wanting to put a spoke in Tony’s wheel as he tries to gain momentum again. Plus, it wouldn’t hurt to take Matthias Cormann down a peg or two as well. So my money is on Julie Bishop.

  50. C@t:

    Of course. And don’t forget they’ve spent a lot of time casting Mueller’s investigation as flawed, based on conspiracies and fake news, and aimed at bringing Trump down, in essence to either make it easier to fire him if he starts uncovering uncomfortable truths, or to dismiss his findings at the conclusion of the investigation.

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