BludgerTrack returns for 2018 with methodological tinkering to address two issues. The first is an effort to account for a different preference environment with the rise of the One Nation; the second puts the various pollsters on a level playing field in calculating the leadership rating treds.
After polling a national primary vote of 1.3% from the fifteen lower house seats they contested, One Nation’s polling has been approaching double figures for at least the past year. This limits the utility of allocating preferences as they flowed at the previous election, which is the most reliable method when the minor party environment experiences little change from one election to the next. The Coalition received barely more than half of One Nation’s preferences in 2016, but they did quite a bit better than that at last year’s state elections, receiving around 65% in Queensland and 60% in Western Australia — presumably because many of their new supporters have defected from the Coalition.
The alternative to previous election preference flows is respondent allocation, which the experience of the state elections suggests is leaning too far in the other direction. The approach now taken by BludgerTrack is to split the difference, which would have worked well if it had been applied in 2016. This is done by combining trend measures of previous election and respondent-allocated flows, with Ipsos and ReachTEL providing the data for the latter.
The chart below shows how these trends pan out in the latest run of the aggregation. Both pollsters had the Coalition maintaining its mid-thirties share from the election until around the middle of last year, when it rose to the low forties. With the major parties now accounting for barely three-quarters of the total vote, a change on this scale would, by itself, result in more than a full point of difference to the two-party total.
The impact of the new method on the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading is illustrated below, with the chart on the left showing how things would look if previous election preferences were still applied. The upshot is that BludgerTrack should be at least half a point less favourable for Labor than it was before, at least for as long as the recent pattern of respondent-allocated preference polling holds.
The second change relates to the leadership ratings measures, which until now made no effort to distinguish between the very substantial peculiarities of different pollsters. This meant its results were saying as much about the pollster that had reported most recently as they did about changes in the standing of the two leaders.
Unlike voting intention, leadership ratings cannot be measured against a real world benchmark. So the approach taken here is to treat Newspoll as the centre of gravity, and adjust the other pollsters by benchmarking them against a trend measure of Newspoll. These results are illustrated in the table below, which effectively shows how different a typical result from each pollster will be from a typical Newspoll.
This shows that both leaders, but Malcolm Turnbull especially, do much worse on Newspoll’s approval and disapproval ratings than they do from Essential, Ipsos and YouGov. Since these differences are now being corrected for, BludgerTrack will tend to record weaker net satisfaction results for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull.
This brings us to the latest BludgerTrack numbers, which as always are displayed in all their glory on the sidebar. Since the Essential poll is the only new data point of the last few weeks, a certain amount of caution is advised. While the Essential numbers were slightly better than the Coalition’s form late last year, more than half the 1.2% shift recorded in favour of the Coalition is down to the new preference method. It hasn’t made much difference to the seat projection, on which the Coalition gain one apiece in Queensland and South Australia, but lose one in Western Australia.
The impact of the new leadership ratings method on Malcolm Turnbull’s net satisfaction is muted by a set of Essential numbers which were, by the pollsters long-term standards, relatively good for him. However, Bill Shorten had a weak result from Essential, and is accordingly well down.
3,076 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”
rossmcg @ #3044 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 3:12 pm
WA certainly did way better than other states.
Keep up the battle to remain that way.
Not so much resurrected as taxidermied.
2018 is not a good year for the Greens so far.
Their polling has stalled at around 90% of all Australians preferring somebody else.
Their last resolution on International Relations was back in 2015.
Having achieved freedom for Aung Sung Suu Kyi they have failed to put up a resolution to rein in her genocidal tendencies.
Their Massive National Campaign has not lifted a single Indigenous person from poverty or homelessness.
And now they have wedged themselves between Labor and the Coalition on the pokies scourge. They are going to give local government the right to decide where the pokies go. PLUS they are going to restrict bets to $1: enough to financially cripple every single pensioner pokie addict.
I guess we’ll find out soon enough those from any party who are going to try it.
The industry will certainly be using it yet again and pushing it at the individual voters as well as politicians.
A ‘gold mine’ of advertising for the ad agencies and commercial TV stations coming up.
‘Tasmania’s Greens leader Cassy O’Connor said she wasn’t concerned that Labor’s pokies policy could see voters switching parties.
She labelled it a “fantastic outcome” for the state that all parties except the Liberals are going to the election wanting to axe pokies from pubs and clubs.’
O’Connor is lying.
It says in the Tasmanian Greens policy statement that they are going to leave decisions about whether to have pokies and where to locate them to local governments.
The Greens really have wedged themselves nicely here.
There is an emerging shambles in the child care industry, with small operators and community centres being elbowed out by the big conglomerates attracted by high returns, underpinned by federal government subsidies.
Birmingham is quite happy to see this happening (and why not, the big operators are the LNP’s friends and supporters).
A big drop shower of rain going on in Canberra.
“A ‘gold mine’ of advertising for the ad agencies and commercial TV stations coming up.”
That’s for sure!
Pegasus @ #3051 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 3:17 pm
I can see ALP Tas quietly shuttling subsidised mini-buses from the suburbs for the problem gamblers to get their fix at the casino’s…?
Pokies killed the music and movie nights at pubs and clubs.
They used to be a small flutter where you may win enough for your dinner or a few rounds.
Then holidays started appearing a prizes then came the linked machines.
Linked machines made gambling worse as small time gamblers could win big if it was their lucky day, like winning big on a scratchie. Know 3or 4 people who won a few thousand on a linked machine gambling $0.50 at a time, two of them then put back $60,000 over next 2 years trying to get another big win, some still losing big time.
$1 max bet wont solve problem, they will just continue to sit in front of the machine with glazed eyes all day chasing the pretty music colours and big pay.
But needs some sort of national approach, Tassie is a good start as harder to go interstate where not restricted.
Sunday, January 28, 2018 at 3:16 pm
Boerwar is citing from the Tas Greens 2014 policy platform which I would assume is out-of-date, as State Greens always review all policies pre-election.’
Well. Call me Norty. Fancy quoting from the relevant current Official Greens Policy Document!
I sniff a bit of Greens political ducking, lying and weaving.
citizen @ #3056 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 3:21 pm
Memories must be short.
Remember ABC Learning run by a LNP mate?
It crashed and burned, leaving wreckage strewn everywhere.
Reachtel does look a very good pref sample for Trumble.
Even after you assume the absolute worst results for Labor and the Greens to round to their numbers (35.5 and 9.5), and conversely the absolute best results for the filth and the more bogan filth (34.4, 8.4) you still need to push the PHON prefs up to 62% to the LNP to get it to just tick over to 47.5 and so round up to 48.
Same ole, same ole 53/47 really. Well done Trumble you lowlife. Pulled out the dogwhistle and bashed up some darkies. And the polls didn’t move. Your mum must be soooo proud.
Five letters ‘bis’ for Barnyard. APVMA, Adani.
Good afternoon all,
Interesting statistics re the increase in public servants reporting they have witnessed corruption over the last three years.
Perhaps public servants have had a gutful of those in authority continuing to have their snout in the trough while ordinary workers are being screwed by bosses refusing to negotiate over realistic wage increases while at the same time working conditions are getting worse and worse.
Why should workers have to suffer a real fall in wages and conditions while these bastards in corporate positions continue to misuse corporate cards, continue their big lunches and ongoing perks ?
It does not surprise me people have had a gutful and are now more open to reporting cases of perceived corruption and misconduct especially from those mouthing the government line about public service departments having to ” live within their means “.
What happened Rex?
You made some good comments late yesterday and this morning.
Did someone hack your account? 🙂
Sunday, January 28, 2018 at 3:21 pm
A big drop shower of rain going on in Canberra.
Um, part of Canberra perhaps. In the deep south it’s strong sunshine with a few clouds for decoration!
Unless I wrong in the detail, I do believe that Bludger Track has split the difference between last election prefs and respondent allocation of prefs.
Even so, pref behaviour of PHON and the horde of indies in the past couple of years has been very volatile.
My view is that the poll represents a reality: Shorten lost political skin because three or four of his MPs were totally slack and/or incompetent. Plus, everyone from the Greens through the Liberals through the Nationals through the PHON take every opportunity to stab him in the guts.
Plus Turnbull has been out and about launching things, spending our money and taking a bit of an easy ride from the MSM over the past two months. Plus the Greens sucked in a large number of people on how they were going to change Australia Day.
Reality will hit when kids go back to school and people go back to work. The Christmas debt, the flatlining house prices, the falling real wages, the hours worked stats, the costly business of getting kids to school will once again focus the minds.
I am happy for you to propagate your untruths and let others make their own assessments.
But pace yourself, 2018 has just begun and if you are to last the distance at your level of angst, you will need to prioritise what your daily ‘missives’ focus on.
Poker machine plain packaging: you have a long table with a row of drab, olive-coloured boxes with a coin slot in the top, with simple chairs in front of them. At about eye level there’s a ‘start’ button, a ‘finish’ button and two simple digital displays. One shows the amount you have put in since the start of your session. The other shows your net position (which includes a sign: +/-.
1. The player presses start.
2. The player puts a coin in the slot.
3. The box adjusts the net position. No sounds.
4. Return to step 2 or press ‘finish’.
When the player presses ‘finish’, the machine prints a receipt and in the unlikely event that the net position is positive the player takes the receipt to a teller for payment.
What’s not to like.
When he gets flicked from politics he could have a second career doing movies like the “Walking Dead”. He’s got potential!
Not a poker machine but I wouldn’t mind one! Awesome item.
David Rowe working on a Sunday