BludgerTrack returns for 2018 with methodological tinkering to address two issues. The first is an effort to account for a different preference environment with the rise of the One Nation; the second puts the various pollsters on a level playing field in calculating the leadership rating treds.
After polling a national primary vote of 1.3% from the fifteen lower house seats they contested, One Nation’s polling has been approaching double figures for at least the past year. This limits the utility of allocating preferences as they flowed at the previous election, which is the most reliable method when the minor party environment experiences little change from one election to the next. The Coalition received barely more than half of One Nation’s preferences in 2016, but they did quite a bit better than that at last year’s state elections, receiving around 65% in Queensland and 60% in Western Australia — presumably because many of their new supporters have defected from the Coalition.
The alternative to previous election preference flows is respondent allocation, which the experience of the state elections suggests is leaning too far in the other direction. The approach now taken by BludgerTrack is to split the difference, which would have worked well if it had been applied in 2016. This is done by combining trend measures of previous election and respondent-allocated flows, with Ipsos and ReachTEL providing the data for the latter.
The chart below shows how these trends pan out in the latest run of the aggregation. Both pollsters had the Coalition maintaining its mid-thirties share from the election until around the middle of last year, when it rose to the low forties. With the major parties now accounting for barely three-quarters of the total vote, a change on this scale would, by itself, result in more than a full point of difference to the two-party total.
The impact of the new method on the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading is illustrated below, with the chart on the left showing how things would look if previous election preferences were still applied. The upshot is that BludgerTrack should be at least half a point less favourable for Labor than it was before, at least for as long as the recent pattern of respondent-allocated preference polling holds.
The second change relates to the leadership ratings measures, which until now made no effort to distinguish between the very substantial peculiarities of different pollsters. This meant its results were saying as much about the pollster that had reported most recently as they did about changes in the standing of the two leaders.
Unlike voting intention, leadership ratings cannot be measured against a real world benchmark. So the approach taken here is to treat Newspoll as the centre of gravity, and adjust the other pollsters by benchmarking them against a trend measure of Newspoll. These results are illustrated in the table below, which effectively shows how different a typical result from each pollster will be from a typical Newspoll.
| Essential | Ipsos | YouGov | Morgan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnbull | Satisified | +3.9% | +12.0% | +11.0% | -0.9% |
| Dissatisfied | -9.1% | -9.7% | -7.6% | -2.4% | |
| Net | +13.0% | +21.7% | +18.6% | +1.5% | |
| Shorten | Satisified | +0.9% | +4.8% | +10.0% | -3.8% |
| Dissatisfied | -9.3% | -1.9% | -8.1% | -0.4% | |
| Net | +10.2% | +6.7% | +18.1% | -3.4% | |
| Preferred | Turnbull | -3.4% | +5.5% | -7.5% | +5.7% |
| Shorten | -3.5% | +0.8% | -4.0% | +0.3% | |
| N | 30 | 15 | 5 | 2 |
This shows that both leaders, but Malcolm Turnbull especially, do much worse on Newspoll’s approval and disapproval ratings than they do from Essential, Ipsos and YouGov. Since these differences are now being corrected for, BludgerTrack will tend to record weaker net satisfaction results for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull.
This brings us to the latest BludgerTrack numbers, which as always are displayed in all their glory on the sidebar. Since the Essential poll is the only new data point of the last few weeks, a certain amount of caution is advised. While the Essential numbers were slightly better than the Coalition’s form late last year, more than half the 1.2% shift recorded in favour of the Coalition is down to the new preference method. It hasn’t made much difference to the seat projection, on which the Coalition gain one apiece in Queensland and South Australia, but lose one in Western Australia.
The impact of the new leadership ratings method on Malcolm Turnbull’s net satisfaction is muted by a set of Essential numbers which were, by the pollsters long-term standards, relatively good for him. However, Bill Shorten had a weak result from Essential, and is accordingly well down.
CTar1
Yep, but sometimes ‘unintended consequences’ appear in the ‘+’ column.
WA looks to have imported a pitch from Jamacia for their new stadium!
The Greens of course are up to their usual tut tutting about everyone else and their hopelessness with respect to international relations.
They are leading with their chins.
The last Greens Party resolution on international relations is over two years old.
Even Pearls’n’ponies is quicker off the mark than that.
As for how comprehensive the Greens Party resolutions are: there has never been a resolution on either Chinese or Russian military expansionism. There is nothing on the seizure by force of the Crimea, fomenting a proxy war in the Ukraine or the massive expansion of military bases in the South China Sea.
By number of resolutions, whales are more important than anything Xi or Putin are up to.
By way of contrast, three out of the last 15 resolutions have been Israel/Palestine.
Of course there is a resolution calling for the liberation of Aung Sung Suu Kyi. But there is no resolution calling on her to stop her Rohingya genocide.
https://greens.org.au/policies/international-relations
BiGD
“Smow” Gee, it’s so unusual for me to make a typo or leave a couple of words out.
😀
Problem gamblers in Victoria can lose on average up to $840 p/hour at the moment but with a $1 limit that reduces to $120 p/hour.
88% of recreational gamblers don’t bet more than a $1 p/spin anyway so the target is problem gamblers.
$1 maximum bets are recommended by the productivity commission.
Good enough for me.
imacca @ #2999 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 10:36 am
Yep, if it can happen in Tasmania it can happen elsewhere!
Very scary for the industry.
Pegasus
I never liked David White, but wasn’t aware that he was the ‘worm in the bud’. It’s nice (?) to know that my judgement on him was correct – but what could I have done, anyway…
Recent polling in Bass:
http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/new-reachtel-polling-in-bass-shows-109-per-cent-of-respondents-say-pokies-policy-will-influence-their-vote/news-story/4019365c574cc11bf9422cdf2e009cb7
Rex Douglas @ #3004 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 10:39 am
Wow, only $120 per hour what a bargain.
What other “entertainment” costs so little?
AL
‘Pokies’ have never done much for me but then I’ve never made a bet at the TAB.
I did go to a local club one arvo a couple of weeks ago and all the noise they make is not really conductive to having a quite drink.
You just have to laugh at the mealy-mouthed hypocrisy here. Taken direct from the Tasmanian Greens website:
‘Measures
Independent Social and Economic Impact Studies
The Tasmanian Greens will work towards:
ensuring biennial, independent social and economic impact studies into the effects of gambling on the community are conducted, and for these studies to include clear recommendations which are tabled in parliament;
removing the exemption from the mandatory code of practice for premium player programs;
requiring an independent social and economic impact study into the effects of online gaming in Tasmania, particularly on young Tasmanians.
Poker Machines
The Tasmanian Greens will work towards:
immediately establishing $1 bet limits on all existing pokie machines;
legislating for Tasmania to work towards being pokie-free;
providing for local government control over the location and number of pokie venues.’
Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
4m4 minutes ago
This is our reality, people. In less than a year, hackers from everywhere — including Russia, China, North Korea — will be able to negate our votes and change 2018 election outcomes. And #Trump is looking the other way lest he bring his 2016 “victory” into doubt. Unforgivable.
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/957018565625827328
Malcolm Nance
1 hr ·
So, Flynn was under investigation basically from the start of the Trump administration. The seeds of the administration’s pending implosion were planted even before the inauguration.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/flynn-kept-fbi-interview-concealed-white-house-trump-n840491
The Greens botline:
‘The Tasmanian Greens will work towards:
immediately establishing $1 bet limits on all existing pokie machines;’
Kudos to Rebecca White in Tassie for finally making a stand on pokies, both publicly during an election campaign and also within her own party.
Here’s hoping she stays firm against internal and external vested interests and lobby groups.
It will be interesting to see how this issue will impact on voting intention – positively, negatively or not at all.
It will be interesting to see what the pre-election promises and policies of both major parties ‘will look like post-election and what consequent movement, if any, there will be in policy implementation.
So, there is a clear choice in Tasmania.
Keep pokies: Liberals
Get rid of pokies: Labor
Do some studies and pretend to get rid of pokies: The Greens
So much for the same old parties.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/russia-timeline-key-players-meetings-investigation-details-n840786
Another useful interactive.
Boerwar,
Yes, it’s good to see Tas Labor is are finally on the same page as the Greens re pokie machines.
BiGD
I think a sign setting out the ‘return rate’ might have to be displayed in ACT venues.
I faintly recall seeing them at the ‘cash your winnings’ / ‘get more money to waste’ booth.
Asia under Trump: How the US is losing the region to China
In just one year, US President Donald Trump has changed the way Asia looks at the United States.
The cornerstones of American power in Asia, Japan, Australia and South Korea, all lost a little faith in their longtime close ally and protector in 2017, according to Gallup polling.
No military assets have been withdrawn, no embassies closed, but the lack of interest expressed by a US administration focused on “America First” has deeply shaken its status in the region.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/27/asia/asia-trump-us-china-intl/index.html
Pegasus @ #2994 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 2:35 pm
A significant argument used was that Victoria was losing revenue to NSW border towns as people from Victoria went there, including organised bus tours from Melbourne and regional centres. And of course Victoria absorbed the cost of the consequent damage.
That is the only argument I ever heard that had the least merit.
The consequences of addressing it by having the cancer spread to Victoria was worse than the problem it addressed.
Rex
… recommended by the Productivity Commission …
JFC! Next they’ll be recommending that Oxycotin only come in 5mg doses.
Does Barnaby speak with Gina’s voice? Lenore disagrees with Barnaby.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/28/barnaby-joyce-federal-icac-unnecessary-as-senate-has-anti-corruption-powers?CMP=share_btn_tw
I wonder if those two supposed pokie haters, Wilkie and Xenophon, will campaign in the Tasmanian election?
If Tas Labor is elected am I to presume that Tasmania’s problem gamblers would still be able to go to the casino and go for broke on the unlimited pokies ?
‘Pegasus says:
Sunday, January 28, 2018 at 2:52 pm
Boerwar,
Yes, it’s good to see Tas Labor is are finally on the same page as the Greens re pokie machines.’
Another Greens Lies
Labor is going to get rid of pokies.
The Greens are going to put a $1 bet limit per bet and do some studies while they ‘work toward’ getting rid of pokies.
The choice is simple. No pokies. Pokies. Fartarsing about pokies.
Huh? Resurrected themselves?
The Poker Machine industry will be at it already preparing/updating how ‘Jim’ from the ‘All around great people social club’ in some place in rural Tasmania will lose his job emptying the machines and have no chance of future employment unless he moves to a city.
Predictable as.
confessions
Insane.
Fess
He probably believes the earth is flat, too!
BEMUSED
FMD there is a long list of ex Labor pollies rushing to take post career posts as spruikers for various flavors of ‘bastard’ organisations ….. Hello Marn,Anna etc etc
Boerwar @ #3023 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 2:59 pm
A Boerwar lie.
Pokies would remain in the casino’s under Labors plan.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-13/poker-machines-to-be-out-of-pubs-clubs-under-tasmanian-labor/9254442
$1 limit is a good start but better would be to limit the maximum payout to$100.
The linked machines can offer payouts in the tens of thousands which people are chasing.
Takes away the reason for gambling in most cases, but not all.
Footy player was betting thousands on races in USA and UK through tab, most of these races have low pools, sometimes only $200 or so, ost he could ever win would be 4% return, $40 on a $1,000 bet regardless of the odds.
But do need a national approach as addicts will head for the nearest venue that doesnt have those restrictions as the Vic and SA people did before when NSW was only place with pokies.
Bus trips were organised there, we stopped off at Wentworthville on our way west in the old days and there were queues for the pokies.
Never seen that before.
Oct 2017: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-16/greens-to-force-tas-labor-hand-on-pokies-policy/9055102
How an impending state election highlights an issue and focuses the minds of incumbents.
Confessions:
WTF???
I swear, sometimes Pence manages to make Trump seem sane!
CTaR1
Yep.
Plus every single social organisation that gets some pokey club lolly will be reminded of the loss of largessse, and there will be footage of paraplegics and orphans who were helped by the noble pokey clubs. Plus every single pokey club worker will get a reminder. And everyone who visits a pokey club to get a cheap meal will get a reminder. Contractors and providers will be reminded where the bread is buttered.
They are hideously embedded, without conscience, and disproportionately powerful.
I note that the Greens have actually managed to wedge themselves between Labor and the Liberals on this. They are going to do some studies. And put a limit of $1 a bet!
How politically incompetent is that?
I’m sure I’ve done none of those things. 🙂
lizzie:
I do know he believes noah’s ark was real.
https://www.snopes.com/2016/11/13/mike-pence-evolution/
Sadly, one now must scutinize Boerwars posts for factual inaccuracies.
Here is the Tasmanian Greens position on Poker Machines
‘The Tasmanian Greens will work towards:
immediately establishing $1 bet limits on all existing pokie machines;
legislating for Tasmania to work towards being pokie-free;
providing for local government control over the location and number of pokie venues.’
Why would local government have to do anything at all if there are no pokies.
Effin hypocrites.
CTar1
“The Poker Machine industry will be at it already preparing/updating how ‘Jim’ from the ‘All around great people social club’ in some place in rural Tasmania will lose his job emptying the machines and have no chance of future employment unless he moves to a city.”
Do you think that will be same line an incumbent ALPer who is at risk of losing his/her seat will run locally.
lizzie @ #3028 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 3:03 pm
Try reading this articel I posted the link to earlier.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/26/opinion/holocaust-eastern-europe.html?ribbon-ad-idx=4&rref=opinion
In Eastern Europe, Holocaust denial is on the rise and perpetrators are being rehabilitated and honoured.
It puts some context around his remarks which make more sense if he is referring to memories.
‘fess
Pence often looks grey enough to raise the possibility he was dead not long ago.
‘A R says:
Sunday, January 28, 2018 at 3:08 pm
Nice quadrella.
I’m sure I’ve done none of those things. ‘
Bwana Di Natale and his White Man’s Burden Have.
poroti @ #3029 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 3:04 pm
He worked for Hawker Britton which has many clients.
Bemused
One good thing about WA’s isolation is that nobody organises bus tours for aged pensioners to the pokie pubs in Ceduna!
Every year or so the clubs lobby raises the idea that pokies will save them and they are usually quickly slapped down.
Over the last few years there has been a rationalisation of bowls clubs due mainly to demographic change. Once thriving clubs simply folded or merged as younger people took over their suburb and of course the change in attitudes to drinking and driving meant a major decline in bar sales.
Likewise the WAFL football clubs that were once alternative suburban drinking places to pubs have declined with the advent of the AFL and their bars which were open most days of the week have very restricted trade now.
The days of working men heading to the local bowls or footy club a couple of afternoons a week are long gone. And good thing too.
.
The only difference between Pence and the Greens is that the Greens are awaiting the Reds Rapture and Pence’s Rapture is colourless.
rossmcg
.05 stonkered a lot of stuff.
Rex Douglas @ #3031 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 11:04 am
Yes, you have one venue where you can control and monitor gamblers.
I would prefer none but this addresses many of the issues.
You have to make a conscious choice, it’s not a matter of just slipping around the corner to the nearest venue!
It takes much of the reflex behaviour out of the equation.
Boerwar is citing from the Tas Greens 2014 policy platform which I would assume is out-of-date, as State Greens always review all policies pre-election.
Policy in full: https://greens.org.au/sites/greens.org.au/files/Gambling-v14.1.0.pdf