The first ReachTEL poll of the year for Sky News is one of the Coalition’s better results of recent times, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 53-47 to 52-48 from the previous poll on November 28. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 34%; Labor is steady on 36%; the Greens are steady on 10%; and One Nation is down one to 8%.
Malcolm Turnbull also records a strong improvement on his personal ratings, being rated good by 30% (up six), average by 37% (up two) and poor by 32% (down eight). Bill Shorten is on 31% good (up one), 32% average (down four) and 36% poor (up three-and-a-half). Turnbull has increased his lead on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, which typically produces closer results than other pollsters: last time it was 52-48, this time it’s 54-46.
The poll also finds 32% support for a cut in the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than $50 million, with 44% opposed. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated that trade deals were good for employment, compared with 20% for poor; but 49% said Labor should vote against the Trans Pacific Partnership if it “doesn’t protect jobs”, with 20% taking the contrary view.
I’m not exactly sure what the field date was for the poll, but ReachTEL uses robopolling with samples of typically around 2300.
In other news, Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman today called an election for March 3, which means there will be no clash with South Australia this time, as there was in 2010 and 2014. I hope to have a full election guide posted later today, so stay tuned.
Boerwar,
” Di Natale’s main message about how Changing the Date is the single most important priority for Indigenous Australians.”
Unsurprisingly, not too subtle verballing of RDN.
Jackol says:
Monday, January 29, 2018 at 7:41 pm
It’s more than just about numbers. …
Seat level polling has delivered much more unreliable results than you would expect from standard sampling error MoE.
The main reason seat-scale polling is unreliable is because it is very difficult to get properly randomised samples. Pollsters could survey as many people as they can find, but if they do not comprise a random sample, then the concept of MoE becomes very difficult to apply. There will be errors, but they will not be predictable.
Yes Player One – after all one K.Rudd could have won a double dissolution in 2008 with a real emissions scheme and the legacy of failure has rolled on since then.
What you have is feel good targets from Labor targets whilst the rich adapt with battery and solar systems off the grid and the poor are left to suffer. What a betrayal! They couldn’t even promise to keep Gillard’s watered down ETS.
bemused @ #624 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 4:24 pm
It’s not only sample size, it’s an appropriately representative sample. Very difficult to do with electorates of ~100k without a hell of a lot of information on the people you are polling. For that reason, I would not trust any published polling information that came out about Pearce, where I live.
The ALP’s data analytics program should be able to yeild very accurate seat level “polling” provided that enough data is fed into it and it is configured correctly.
‘Pegasus says:
Monday, January 29, 2018 at 9:38 pm
Boerwar,
” Di Natale’s main message about how Changing the Date is the single most important priority for Indigenous Australians.”
Unsurprisingly, not too subtle verballing of RDN.’
The Greens have 25 Aims in their Official Policy document with respect to Indigenous Affairs. Not one of those Aims involves changing the date.
Yet Di Natale launched a Massive National Campaign to Change the Date.
None of the Greens 25 Aims were not mentioned.
Other priorities were not mentioned.
These are the undisputed facts.
Where is the verballing?
Boerwar @ #696 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 6:36 pm
Undoubtedly. Repealling Obamacare didn’t look so attractive when the Republican base arked up and they’ve been searching for a way to do that without pissing off their voters ever since.
Edwina
Rudd did not have Double Dissolution triggers in 2008. They take a while to arrive. He really only got them in 2010.
Confessions
Making the sick work should do the trick.
Insane.
Pegasus @ #690 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 9:28 pm
That would be true only if Labor gave them a chance to form a coalition government.
Fortunately, that will not happen. Unless it is a coalition with the LNP.
The Greens are the Black Hole of Australian politics. Light and energy and resources go in. Nothing comes out.
*rolls eyes*
The Greens only way to garner attention now they are so irrelevant is to do stunts, just like PHON, NXT and the Clive Palmer party.
Edwina StJohn @ #699 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 9:40 pm
Yes, Rudd was a disaster. Almost as big a disaster as an LNP government would have been.
So, I ask again. Which party do you think is in power? It seems you think Labor is!
Good evening all,
Interesting to see the greens latte sippers on here tonight holding the contribution of Albanese up as some guiding light in the ongoing greens relevance debate over Austealia Day.
On Radio National Drive this afternoon Jacki Huggins from the National Congress of Australia’s first people shot his suggestion down in flames as a divisive non solution.
Perhaps if the greens spent more time actually talking to and listening to indigenous Australians rather than following Di Natalie down the path of a political “we know best, look at us ” campaign they might get it through their heads that much more is at stake in any debate on indigenous policy issues than a simple change the date campaign.
Di Natalie and all those others who assume shallow solutions will get them a bit of free publicity should hang their heads in shame.
Cheers and a good night to all.
P1
Look what is popping up over in Tas.
“Billboards reading “Labor and the Greens think you’re stupid. What’s next? Don’t let them tell you what to do” are being erected at pokies venues around the state.”
Emotive buttons are being pushed. What’s new,
For decades, both major parties and the MSM have derided the Greens to ensure the continuation of the status quo. They have a vested interest in furthering this collaboration.
The tide is turning. The major parties’ share of votes is declining.
I think the reply to that statement rhymes with Clucking Bell!
Labor and the Coalition never, ever do stunts.
:rolls eyes:
JM @ #663 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 5:45 pm
How Demand Side Management works in WA is that you sign up for the program and are paid an amount per MW (last I saw the number it was $17k per MW but it has gone down since then) that you are prepared to reduce your demand by *if* you are directed to by the AEMO.
The idea is to reduce consumption on the grid during peak grid events, so the reduction in demand only has to occur for very short periods of time.
If the AEMO does not direct you to reduce your consumption at any point during the year then you still get to keep the financial incentive to participate in DSM.
Re electricity and “smart meters”. This is an article based on the diary of a scientist who lived in Mosul through the ISIS occupation. Seems they were pretty good at administering services and installed “Smart Meters” 🙂 What a seller “Install Smart Meters today, as used by ISIS” 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jan/29/bureaucracy-evil-isis-run-city-mosul
Just had an enjoyable trip down memory lane watching ‘David Stratton’s Stories of Australian Cinema’.
There are three episodes and can be seen on iview.
I had forgotten how many Australian films were produced.
Pegasus @ #710 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 9:58 pm
The tide is indeed turning. The Greens party share of votes is declining.
File this one under ‘do as I say not as I do’. Typical hectoring moralising fear mongerer acting in self interest in the end.
I suspect the power saved will be lost in removing the extra heat gained back during the period when the appliance is off. More or less a zero sum game.
All this technique will do is help juggle the load a little, it will not reduce the overall load. Probably of some use, but only modest at best. No game changer.
The networks are capacity networks. The capacity is typically determined by the zone substation, which contains *very expensive* lumps of metal. “Juggling the load a little” can significant reduce peak loads, which can remove the need to install extra bits of this very expensive equipment, or at least defer the need it for a few years. This adds up quickly, and has very long effects on network tariffs – the bits of metal are amortised over >40 years as part of the network companies regulated asset base.
Getting lots of small loads to work together on this presents some challenges – recruitment, communications, state estimation, verification, enforcing participation commitments, payments, etc., but none of them is insurmountable. With batteries and EVs on the network, the task is actually a lot simpler. I know this because we are doing it.
Certainly not on par with the Greens and minor / micro parties.
Jacqui Lambie …
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-29/lambie-more-popular-with-men-than-women-in-tasmania/9372036
Ctari
This article gives the sort of background that all journalist once used to give.
You read the article and you actually know a little more.
http://www.atimes.com/article/turkey-plays-latest-card-new-great-game/
dtt
Tks. I’ll give it a read in the morning.
Pegasus has just come as close as she is capable of to admitting that the Greens indulge in stunts.
How unfair to Trump. This whole governing business? Who knew it would be so hard!
Things are definitely hotting up.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/28/us/politics/rod-rosenstein-carter-page-secret-memo.html?smid=tw-share
Just coming through. Lunch time in Washington now so official statement expected in the next 3-4hrs:
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/29/politics/andrew-mccabe-fbi/index.html
Essential TPP
ALP 54-46 (Same as Reachtel on last election prefs).
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/30/most-australians-say-cost-of-living-spiralling-guardian-essential-poll
Player One @ #716 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 10:41 pm
Pegasus should get a load of Essential then and wake up to herself. Her Greens propaganda is falling on deaf ears in the wider community.
CTar1 @ #726 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 5:06 am
How does he do it!?! How does Trump, the incompetent buffoon, keep getting his way in attacking the pillars of American democracy, and the people that support them, time after time?
Pegasus @ #712 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 10:03 pm
We are but humble students of the (bs) artists of the Knowledge Economy who think up The Greens’ stunts! 🙂
C@t, for a man-baby Trump has amazingly thick skin. I am almost envious, but I think it is borne by a complete lack of self-awareness.
Don’t forget, Bill Shorten at the National Press Club today!
Question @ #731 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 5:38 am
Q, I actually believe he is a genius, in the Ted Bundy, Jeffrey Dahmer mode. You know, a person capable of devising ways to knock off, metaphorically, person after person, that is between him and his goals, while at the same time giving the outward appearance of normalcy.
I mean, I know he has a person who also does some of his Tweets, but the way he uses the medium himself, and he does a hell of a lot of the Tweeting himself, is masterful. You have to admit it, he gets just the right amount of mass hysteria-inducing persuasion of his base and psychological manipulation into every Tweet!
New thread.