The first ReachTEL poll of the year for Sky News is one of the Coalition’s better results of recent times, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 53-47 to 52-48 from the previous poll on November 28. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 34%; Labor is steady on 36%; the Greens are steady on 10%; and One Nation is down one to 8%.
Malcolm Turnbull also records a strong improvement on his personal ratings, being rated good by 30% (up six), average by 37% (up two) and poor by 32% (down eight). Bill Shorten is on 31% good (up one), 32% average (down four) and 36% poor (up three-and-a-half). Turnbull has increased his lead on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, which typically produces closer results than other pollsters: last time it was 52-48, this time it’s 54-46.
The poll also finds 32% support for a cut in the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than $50 million, with 44% opposed. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated that trade deals were good for employment, compared with 20% for poor; but 49% said Labor should vote against the Trans Pacific Partnership if it “doesn’t protect jobs”, with 20% taking the contrary view.
I’m not exactly sure what the field date was for the poll, but ReachTEL uses robopolling with samples of typically around 2300.
In other news, Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman today called an election for March 3, which means there will be no clash with South Australia this time, as there was in 2010 and 2014. I hope to have a full election guide posted later today, so stay tuned.
p1
You might think he was having a ‘Lend of me’ except he wasn’t. I had a look after he’d gone.
The head unit protrudes back into the wall in a rectangular ‘slot’ only a little short of the width of the unit. The pipes from the out door unit are connected at either left or right when installing.
This “debt and deficits” mantra is a dumb talking point. Commonwealth Government Securities are bought and sold by the central bank to maintain a target interest rate. That’s it. They are not a constraint on the federal government’s capacity to spend in the future; they are not a burden on taxpayers. So the Commonwealth Government Securities are not a problem in the way that most people believe. They should be scrapped because they are welfare for rich people (a distributional problem), but they don’t pose a fiscal problem.
The other silly distraction is targeting a smaller deficit or a “move to surplus”. There is no tin shed in Canberra where the federal government accumulates surpluses that can be spent later. A federal government surplus represents permanent destruction of non-government financial assets. A federal government deficit is a net addition to non-government financial assets. There have not been any circumstances in Australian history in which a federal government surplus would have been an appropriate fiscal policy stance. If Australia became a massive net exporter, the external sector’s injections of demand could require the government to drain some of that demand away by making tax receipts higher than government expenditures (that is, a fiscal surplus). But that is not our situation and it is not likely to occur in the foreseeable future.
Right now, the deficit is too small, not too big. There isn’t enough net government spending into the private sector to meet the private sector’s demonstrated desires to work and save.
lizzie,
Having met Molan on more than one occasion I can confirm ‘R-W nutter’ is correct.
Jonathan Green@GreenJ
can’t really think of a more egregious expression of privilege than to eagerly announce a plan for creating local jobs and growth through exporting the machinery that will bring miserable deaths and all sorts of agonies in the less fortunate and war-torn corners of the globe.
adrian:
Good to see you again.
CTar1
His face, his whole manner, tells me I would avoid him like the plague.
‘Dan Gulberry says:
Monday, January 29, 2018 at 6:36 pm
Boerwar @ #537 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 12:20 pm
VE
How it works is that the two majors get on with defending Australia by supplying the ADF with modern equipment.
Like the JSF plane that has yet to have a successful flight and if it ever does will be outmanoeuvred by the Russian equivalent which Indonesia has seen fit to purchase.
But, hey yeah, let’s continue to throw money into a black hole.
Boerwarmonger – never saw a piece of military hardware he didn’t want to waste billions of dollars of taxpayers money on. All part and parcel of his Blairite view of the world.’
Basically I believe in heavily armed neutrality. The rough rule of thumb would be never to go to war unless absolutely forced to by an invasion. And then to win that war. Because, and my extended family knows all about this first hand, LOSING a war is the pits.
I am open to all sorts of rational discussion on preferences for equipment acquisitions. What I am not open to is the sneaky Greens tactic of ALWAYS criticising every single defence acquisition while NEVER supporting any of it.
If we followed their advice Australia would have all the strategic deterrent of a Blue Whale with hearing damage. Which seems to be where the Greens would like us to be. Less the hearing damage.
Hi Adrian.
Confessions @ #595 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 6:54 pm
Et moi aussi. 😵 Dizzy with joy.
😆
CTar1 @ #597 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 6:44 pm
Ok. Different type of head unit to the ones we have had. They just sit on the wall – not embedded.
Welcome back Adrian, the ABC has missed you! 😛
Events since the early 60’s that happened on 29th of January –
(I had to do an ‘on this day’ google while trying to find something today. The equivalent of ‘desperate’! So I thought I’d select some that people on here will remember and not to bother with more recent ones.)
1964 “Dr Strangelove”, directed by Stanley Kubrick and starring Peter Sellers and George C. Scott, premieres
1964 Unmanned Apollo 1 Saturn launcher test attains Earth orbit
1968 Nauru (formerly Pleasant Island) adopts constitution
1969 Jimi Hendrix & Pete Townshend wage a battle of guitars
1971 Test debut of Dennis Keith Lillee, v England at Adelaide
1976 Bombs set off in London’s West End by the IRA; 1 person is injured
1978 Sweden outlaws aerosol sprays due to their harmful effect on the ozone layer, becoming the first nation to enact such a ban.
1983 “Down Under” by Men At Work hits #1 on UK pop chart
1987 The president of the Philippines puts down a rebellion against their government in Manila
1991 The Battle of Khafji begins, the first major ground engagement of the Gulf War
1996 France will no longer test nuclear weapons, its president Jacques Chirac says, following international outcry over tests in the Pacific
CTar1 @ #610 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:11 pm
Wow. From “Pleasant Island” to “Hellhole Island” in only 50 years. That’s gotta be some kind of record 🙁
Edit: 50 years, not 40!
P1
Today a rest day with a strong feeling of ‘TG – They’ve gone’ happening?
😀
Yeah yeah. Everyone loves Adrian.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/should-we-change-the-date-of-australia-day/9371602
Australia Day has come and gone but the debate over whether to change the date of our national day rolls on.
What if, rather than changing the date, we changed the meaning of the day instead?
Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese says holding a referendum on constitutional recognition on January 26th would re-write the story of Australia Day.
But the National Congress of Australia’s First Peoples say this idea would undermine the purpose of the referendum.
—————-
Boerwar (or anyone)
Care to speak in support of Albanese’s proposal?
P1
You’ve hammered the exact reason I left it in.
CTar1 @ #612 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:16 pm
You got it in one! I don’t think we could cope with another “busy season” like this one. This was supposed to be our “semi-retirement” plan!
Simon Katich @ #613 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:17 pm
Particularly the ABC! 😉
Pegasus @ #614 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:17 pm
Don’t panic, Peg. Only 11 months and 28 days till you’re relevant again!
Would anyone buy it in its current state?
Serious question.
Voice Endeavour @ #586 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 2:29 pm
Lets keep in mind that seat level polling does not have a good track record of predicting seat results before we get too excited.
My personal view is that SAB’s actual primary will fall off a cliff when it comes into contact with an actual election campaign and they have to release policies, not feel good vibes.
SK
Are we talking Big ‘A’ Adrian or little ‘a’ adrian?
Libertarian Unionist @ #461 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 11:03 am
Are you saying I should be wary of opting in to PeakSmart™?
Just been Reachtelled in Vic. Lots of ?s about electricity supply, cost…. also ?s about retirement villages…inependent tribunals….
grimace @ #620 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:20 pm
Seat level polling will be as accurate as any other polling provided the sample size in each seat is adequate.
What fails miserable is doing a national or state poll and then taking the results for individual seats when the sample size per seat is way too small to be credible.
a r @ #622 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:21 pm
You intend to allow your air conditioner to be remotely turned off on hot days? Really?
Then why on earth did you buy one?
Only his friends call adrian “The Big A”.
Perhaps he could help Trump out wrt Mexico?
If the Govt. really & truly insists on Australia throwing lots of money on military things no matter what and that kill lots of women, children & babies (plus the occasional terrorist) then they should invest in a drone industry here in Australia.
Lots of underwater & above water drones – not those ridiculous F-35s (or was it F-52s) nor those really expensive downgraded nuclear things from France.
Apparently Brian Trumble’s guest spot on Miranda Deranged’s Facebook Live show is attracting huge crowds.
https://twitter.com/MattDoran91/status/957851645802528768
https://mobile.twitter.com/FinancialReview/status/957863379355435009/photo/1
Thought and hoped David Rowe would do this topic
. Had some malware spam get onto to my tablet finally got rid of it.. Little b*stard now exhausted
Now WiFi playing up
It’s more than just about numbers. Because it is difficult to work out how to contact primarily people in the seats you are targeting, and whether your respondents even know which electorate they are enrolled in, seems to completely scramble any attempt to get a vaguely representative sample.
Seat level polling has delivered much more unreliable results than you would expect from standard sampling error MoE.
Thanks mari!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUsCGA7VoAAcHse?format=jpg
Dan Gulberry @ #628 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:39 pm
Be fair! He will eventually have drawn a yuge! audience, but anyone who is watching it on the NBN is still buffering.
Player One @ #624 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 6:28 pm
I was considering it for the guest-room aircon, yes.
Because I feel like technically the guest room should have an aircon, even though it’s unoccupied 95% of the time.
SK – Trump need help with everything.
Even bad advice is better than what he does by himself.
(Just had a 5 second power out here in Canberra. Most likely a vehicle hit something as the temp here around 30c (and finally the humidity down to around 33%)
Aw shucks guys.
Been on hols in Japan for the last 4 weeks. Wow, what a country!
NY resolution: avoid ABC news and current affairs.
Nicholas (AnonBlock)
Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 6:46 pm
I accept you have to inject money into the economy; the question is how you do it. Educating out young and building infrastructure seems to be a way forward. Tax cuts for the rich doesn’t seem like a good idea to me.
Nicholas this is well worth a watch
https://youtu.be/uE63Y7srr_Y
There is a small section on the modern difficulties with Keynesian economics.
I think we have yet to see how these demand management systems are going to work in practice.
If they are crudely and disruptively managed then they will have a serious problem getting people to buy into them, and the system needs the users onside.
I would have thought that a system that turned off non-essential air-con or fridge/freezer for 5 or 10 minutes in an hour at most in a controlled way would be no real inconvenience or involve much discomfort, and shave 10/15% of major demand factors at peak times would not be trivial.
But again, these systems need to have the customers feel comfortable about what the implications will be. I wouldn’t sign up to lose A/C power for several hours at a time outside of my control, and I can’t imagine that’s what anyone would seriously propose.
Pegasus @ #623 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:22 pm
I was robo-polled by Reachtel too, but different to yours.
I was asked if I wanted to respond on social media or sport. I chose social media and they just asked one question, choose which form of social media I used most?
Then one other question, which party would get my first preference vote?
That was it.
Player One @ #624 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:28 pm
You intend to allow your air conditioner to be remotely turned off on hot days? Really?
If you have solar cells it so not so much hot days as hot sunless periods when the cooking load is active.
The majors in SA haven’t said how they will direct preferences. My guess is X will split them 50:50. There is some talk of Lib-Lab swapping prefs to kill off X. I just can’t see Labor doing that. They’ve said they are happy to govern with Xs help and that’s the most likely outcome.
I’m not a believer that any election “is a good one to lose”.
An autonomous drone submarine is a modern mine. It sits on the seabed for years listening for the right ship to come along then it homes in & kills it.
12 modern submarines, even 6 Collins class, are a deterrent to an invader who has to come by sea.
The only modern naval forces that are dollars per kill ratio are Fast Attack Craft & Submarines.
See Falklands for how effective a hunter killer sub can be.
I have no problems buying military defence stuff, but somehow the time lines for equipment are ridiculous. Any real war will be over by 20 years before they are delivered.
It seems to me that if you cannot manufacture 10 in a year if there is an impending crisis, a few bits of equipment are fairly useless.
So we by 10 or 12 subs but over such a long period we will only have about 5 at any one time. With Australia’s coast line I cannot see them doing much.
Can one super high tech sub replace 50 quick build armed patrol boats.
Maybe thy can and it will all be great, but I have my doubts.
I suppose the other question is what exactly are the subs FOR.
Now in WWII they were used to protect convoys of merchant ships and to take out enemy ships. So is that what they are for ie to ensure we can get oil etc. 10 might be enough if they are to be used in that role.
Oh and P1 we have demand management at the distribution level; it’s called a fuse. The utility was running around replacing them today. A fridge off for 24hours can be a problem.
Player One @ #625 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:28 pm
And away goes P1 picking up the same issue as I heard the 2GB loons banging on about.
The point is, they would do it for a short role in rotation so that you would experience very little difference in effect. The idea is that this is better than the crude load shedding they have had to undertake in the past when areas would be blacked out completely for considerable periods.
What’s the point of having an air conditioner if you are going to have it remotely switched off when it is the hottest part of the hottest days of the year!?! Nuckin’ futs!
That just reminds me of the Shiites that run around on one of their holy days whacking themselves with chains!
Not this little black duck! Have air con, will use it! 😀