ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

The first ReachTEL poll for the year records an improvement in Malcolm Turnbull’s fortunes. Other news: Tasmania’s election will be held on March 3.

The first ReachTEL poll of the year for Sky News is one of the Coalition’s better results of recent times, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 53-47 to 52-48 from the previous poll on November 28. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 34%; Labor is steady on 36%; the Greens are steady on 10%; and One Nation is down one to 8%.

Malcolm Turnbull also records a strong improvement on his personal ratings, being rated good by 30% (up six), average by 37% (up two) and poor by 32% (down eight). Bill Shorten is on 31% good (up one), 32% average (down four) and 36% poor (up three-and-a-half). Turnbull has increased his lead on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, which typically produces closer results than other pollsters: last time it was 52-48, this time it’s 54-46.

The poll also finds 32% support for a cut in the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than $50 million, with 44% opposed. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated that trade deals were good for employment, compared with 20% for poor; but 49% said Labor should vote against the Trans Pacific Partnership if it “doesn’t protect jobs”, with 20% taking the contrary view.

I’m not exactly sure what the field date was for the poll, but ReachTEL uses robopolling with samples of typically around 2300.

In other news, Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman today called an election for March 3, which means there will be no clash with South Australia this time, as there was in 2010 and 2014. I hope to have a full election guide posted later today, so stay tuned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

738 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. ratsak (responding to your post in the previous thread)
    Unless I wrong in the detail, I do believe that Bludger Track has split the difference between last election prefs and respondent allocation of prefs.
    Even so, pref behaviour of PHON and the horde of indies in the past couple of years has been very volatile.
    My view is that the poll represents a reality: Shorten lost political skin because three or four of his MPs were totally slack and/or incompetent. Plus, everyone from the Greens through the Liberals through the Nationals through the PHON take every opportunity to stab him in the guts.
    Plus Turnbull has been out and about launching things, spending our money and taking a bit of an easy ride from the MSM over the past two months. Plus the Greens sucked in a large number of people on how they were going to change Australia Day.
    Reality will hit when kids go back to school and people go back to work. The Christmas debt, the flatlining house prices, the falling real wages, the hours worked stats, the costly business of getting kids to school will once again focus the minds.

  4. The poll also finds 32% support for a cut in the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than $50 million, with 44% opposed.

    This is slightly different from the Essential before xmas, something like 50% opposed and from memory 28% supported tax cuts for companies.

  6. I am generally OK with the top ten aims of The Australian Greens in relation to Indigenous issues.

    They are worth a Massive National Campaign, IMO.

    Note that Changing the Date is not on the top ten Greens’ policy aims which are:

    A treaty or treaties that recognises the prior occupation and sovereignty of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
    Governmental policies and practices to respect the right of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples to self-determination, improvement of their social and economic conditions, to participate in decisions that affect them and to freely determine their development policies.
    Protection for cultural and intellectual property rights of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, including their right to practise and revitalise their cultural traditions, customs and language, and resources for community initiatives to maintain, protect and develop the past, present and future manifestations of their cultures.
    Equality of access to essential services and development opportunities.
    Equality of outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples on all major indicators of education, training, housing, community safety, employment and living standards within a decade, and to fully close the gap in health outcomes by 2030 within a framework which acknowledges the diverse aspirations of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
    Culturally appropriate, community controlled, and adequately resourced health, housing, infrastructure and legal services for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
    Increased resources in both community-controlled health services and mainstream health services and prioritisation of programs to improve Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander preventative health and children’s health.
    Family violence and abuse addressed through Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community initiatives and networks, alcohol and other substance abuse initiatives, Aboriginal Women’s Legal Services, and safe houses.
    Genuine opportunities for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander employment and enterprise development in remote, rural and urban communities; and an end to disempowering work for the dole measures.
    Culturally appropriate education for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, which incorporates language and culture into curricula and supports families and children to engage with the education system.

  7. BiGD, from the previous thread:

    Yes, you have one venue where you can control and monitor gamblers.

    I would prefer none but this addresses many of the issues.

    You have to make a conscious choice, it’s not a matter of just slipping around the corner to the nearest venue!

    It takes much of the reflex behaviour out of the equation.

    Yep, I agree. Restricting them to casinos meands:

    – It requires more effort for problem gamblers to find them, rather than simply going to the local pub.

    – They are located in an environment that our minds are predisposed to associate with gambling, rather than with fun nights out.

    – Problem gamblers can (in theory) be monitored by staff who have experience and training in cutting people off when they’ve gone too far, rather than overworked bar staff who are occupied with serving drinks to drunk morons.

    – The far smaller amount of venues means that it’s a lot easier for the authorities to ensure compliance with regulations.

    Also, as much as I detest pokies, I actually do think banning them outright is a bridge too far. I’m just very ambivalent towards the concept of prohibition in general.

    The changes Rebecca White is proposing seem utterly reasonable and commendable to me, as did the ones Wilkie tried to bring in back in 2012. Of course, I’m sure the gambling industry is going to go all out with another ludicrous “its unaustralian not to punt!!” scare campaign.

  8. Boerwar:

    It’s been a blessed relief not focusing on Australian politics the last month or so.

    The SSM survey in particular felt esp wearing.

  11. – It requires more effort for problem gamblers to find them, rather than simply going to the local pub.

    Plus there is also a perception casinos are swankier venues, not like your local RSL club.

  12. Most consequences for banning pokies can be addressed.

    The total contribution of pokies can be added up, funded and then doled out at local levels. The actual amounts are always made to sound bigger than they are, BTW.

    The single biggest consequence policy issue for a total ban on pokies is online substitution.

  13. Asha Leu @ #7 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 3:36 pm

    BiGD, from the previous thread:

    Yes, you have one venue where you can control and monitor gamblers.

    I would prefer none but this addresses many of the issues.

    You have to make a conscious choice, it’s not a matter of just slipping around the corner to the nearest venue!

    It takes much of the reflex behaviour out of the equation.

    Yep, I agree. Restricting them to casinos meands:

    – It requires more effort for problem gamblers to find them, rather than simply going to the local pub.

    – They are located in an environment that our minds are predisposed to associate with gambling, rather than with fun nights out.

    – Problem gamblers can (in theory) be monitored by staff who have experience and training in cutting people off when they’ve gone too far, rather than overworked bar staff who are occupied with serving drinks to drunk morons.

    – The far smaller amount of venues means that it’s a lot easier for the authorities to ensure compliance with regulations.

    Also, as much as I detest pokies, I actually do think banning them outright is a bridge too far. I’m just very ambivalent towards the concept of prohibition in general.

    If the Tas casino’s are anything like Vic’s Crown casino they’ll be encouraging problem gamblers not protecting them.

    $1 limits addresses problem gamblers while protecting local industry jobs.

  15. Despite Beorwar’s claims of an attempted wedge by the Greens (citing a four year old PDF, apparently!), this is what Tas Greens leader Cassy O’Connor’s actual statement on Labor’s policy was:

    Tasmania’s Greens leader Cassy O’Connor said she wasn’t concerned that Labor’s pokies policy could see voters switching parties.

    She labelled it a “fantastic outcome” for the state that all parties except the Liberals are going to the election wanting to axe pokies from pubs and clubs.

    “The only thing that stands in the way of the removal of poker machines from pubs and clubs is a Liberal majority government,” she told reporters in Hobart.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/tassie-labor-won-t-dump-pokies-policy

  16. Unless I wrong in the detail, I do believe that Bludger Track has split the difference between last election prefs and respondent allocation of prefs.

    I’m not talking about bludgertrack, I’m talking about this Reachtel result (which is respondent allocated prefs). On last election prefs someone calculated it was a 54. I assume that was just on simple whole number results as published.

    All I did was look at what would happen if you took these results to 1 decimal place and assumed the absolute best for the Coalition and pumped in last election prefs for Greens and Others. Doing that you need 62% of PHON prefs to get up to 47.5 for the COAL so it can just bare arse round to 48.

    62% isn’t so far away from the Queensland prefs and I absolutely agree the LNP would do much better than they did last election on these.

    The point being it takes not just a much better pref flow to the LNP to get a 48 on these numbers. It takes unrealistic assumptions of the primaries (it’s pretty unlikely all four main primaries are at the absolute best result for the LNP for 1 decimal).

    I’m sure Our Lord will correct me if I have mathematically sinned, but this one looks very like a 53-47 once it goes into bludgertrack under the new split the diff method, and would have been 54-46 last year.

    ie, no change.

  17. If you thought 2016 was bad, just wait for the sequel.

    Russian election interference seeped into nearly every aspect of the political landscape two years ago, but many experts are wondering whether upcoming U.S. elections could be worse.

    https://www.npr.org/2018/01/27/579683042/5-ways-election-interference-could-and-probably-will-worsen-in-2018-and-beyond?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20180127

    It begs belief that congress isn’t doing more to prevent this.

  21. Confessions

    <blockquote.It begs belief that congress isn’t doing more to prevent this.
    it would be if 1% of the “bombshells” had and substance.

  23. poroti:

    Every security and intelligence agency in the US acknowledges the Russians interfered in their election, and if they can do it once, there’s no reason they can’t again.

    Perhaps they are waiting for Mueller’s investigation to be concluded, but meanwhile there are the mid-terms this year, and who knows when Mueller’s investigation will wind up.

  27. The idea that finding a day that could unite the nation and set the calendar next year for that day, would take up any time or effort, or that it could or would distract from, rather than enhance, other priorities is absolute rubbish and dishonest.

  28. It is not a difficult process it, is not a long process, most of Australia (bar the racists) are already happy with the idea, all it takes is a touch of leadership and a lack of racism and white supremacy. So obviously the LNP can’t deliver.

  30. Steve777

    Canberra at 29C with relative humidity around 60%.

    The humidity slowly dropping today. It was around 80% at mid-night.

    #ANOTHERBLOODYWEATHERREPORT

  32. CTar:

    And another.

    Marc CaputoVerified account@MarcACaputo
    15m15 minutes ago
    Marc Rubio fires his chief of staff for “improper conduct “ with a subordinate

  33. BiDG

    Ta. The back and forward arrows never seem to be available when I need them.

    Probably a ‘user fault’ rather than the software or application.

  35. Confessions says: Sunday, January 28, 2018 at 3:57 pm

    phoenixRed:

    If you’re around,

    Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
    9m9 minutes ago

    Very helpful white paper on RICO options available to Mueller and the New York AG for prosecuting the Trump Organization and going after its assets — and the pros & cons of using RICO in this context

    ***************************************************

    As I said the other day, the underground strategy is apparently to get Trump out of office by ‘obstruction’ ( where he has some protection and can pardon while still President ) …..then if successful, hammer the whole Trump Crime Family with State ( no protection ) RICO charges – which includes jail time and asset forfeiture, if found guilty. With Trumps long 30+ year history of dealing with Russian money under dubious arrangements and information collected by Mueller from such as equally dubious institutions such as Deutsche Bank, then it is felt that there is a very high chance of prosecution for such things as tax evasion, money laundering, racketeering, mob association etc etc . under the RICO act. Then there is still collusion/conspiracy with a foreign power to ‘manipulate’ an election still to consider

    Ex- NSA John Schindler long ago predicted that Trump will end up bald, penniless and in prison …… I guess that’s still to be determined ….

  37. First Australian’s have been telling us for a long long time that 26 Jan doesn’t work for them, some people are so deaf you might begin to think they just don’t listen to someone who isn’t the same as them, isn’t there a name for that?

  41. bill is a dud .. even if won what guarantee how long he would survive?
    australia day idiot speech confirmed what I thought from first day he appeared as leader.
    for some unfathomable reason he thinks he is right person for the job –

  42. hungry jack @ #41 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 4:26 pm

    bill is a dud .. even if won what guarantee how long he would survive?
    australia day idiot speech confirmed what I thought from first day he appeared as leader.
    for some unfathomable reason he thinks he is right person for the job –

    Thank god you’re nowhere near the levers of power. Someone doesn’t say the right thing on any given day and you think they should be given the sack! No wonder politicians like Hanson get traction with the semi-literate. They say the sort of things people like you want to hear. Because that’s what you think is more important than anything else. What politicians say on any given day, not what they do. Workable policy that makes the lives of average Australians better. Not so much.

    Pathetic.

  47. Bill has done very well as a consensus leader, but it’s so very hard to win from opposition unless the economy crashes. For Labor, only Whitlam , Hawke and Rudd have managed to do it since Scullin in 1929.
    Turnbull has the same-sex marriage marriage problem behind him, Abbott is losing his oomph and Shorten now faces citizenship demons on the Labor side.
    Turnbull can look forward to more blue skies. Can’t see him being beaten, sadly.

  48. The silly season almost always benefits incumbents. Even Trump’s approval rose over Christmas. Out of sight, out of mind and people have other priorities.

    We’ll see what happens once the political year starts in earnest next week and where the numbers sit in a month. Also, if we get to the end of June and the Labor lead is 51-52? Expect an election for August. The Libs know their history and that they almost always pick up around 4 points in a campaign. BUT they also need to get their primary out of the toilet.

    Shorten does need a big policy reform, but they’re up 53-47, they’ve not got a guaranteed winner as an alternative. The left clamours for Albo, someone I voted for in the 2013 ballot, but the more I think the more I think he’d be a total dud when it comes to be a national leader. Firebrands and party obsessives rarely lead the nation well, even if their bases love them (see Abbott).

    IF you’re ahead, you don’t fuck up by dropping a leader. It’s also really interesting to see people who are of the old school where the party leader doesn’t matter as much as policy, to get into that short-term thinking.

  49. How ironic, that Labors extreme vetting, will lead to a Batman by election which may very well decide Shortens leadership future in 2018.

  50. ESJ

    Labor’s extreme vetting isn’t to blame. At the most, Feeney’s failure to follow instructions might.

    And I don’t think Shorten’s leadership relies solely on Feeney’s fortunes.

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