The Tasmanian Premier, Will Hodgman, called a state election yesterday for March 3, which means there will be no clash with South Australia like there was in 2010 and 2014. Even though it’s not quite ready yet, I have posted my comprehensive election guide, which will be improved over the coming days with proof reading, candidate photos and, most of all, a poll tracking feature.
The most recent published poll from EMRS suggested the Liberals were in dire straits, recording them level with Labor on 34% and with the Greens on 17%. If this were even a bit true, there would be little doubt that Labor’s Rebecca White would emerge at the head of a government with some form of backing from the Greens.
However, the Liberals have lately been circulating their own poll, conducted by MediaReach from a sample of 3000, which paints a somewhat rosier picture for them. It has the Liberal primary vote at 41.1% (down 10.1% on the 2014 election), Labor on 34.3% (up 7.0%) and the Greens on 12.8% (down 1.0%).
As for the betting markets, Ladbrokes (for which you can find a link on the sidebar) has just opened a market that has Labor short-priced favourites at $1.33, with the Liberals on $3.33 and the Greens on $15.