ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

The first ReachTEL poll for the year records an improvement in Malcolm Turnbull’s fortunes. Other news: Tasmania’s election will be held on March 3.

The first ReachTEL poll of the year for Sky News is one of the Coalition’s better results of recent times, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 53-47 to 52-48 from the previous poll on November 28. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 34%; Labor is steady on 36%; the Greens are steady on 10%; and One Nation is down one to 8%.

Malcolm Turnbull also records a strong improvement on his personal ratings, being rated good by 30% (up six), average by 37% (up two) and poor by 32% (down eight). Bill Shorten is on 31% good (up one), 32% average (down four) and 36% poor (up three-and-a-half). Turnbull has increased his lead on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, which typically produces closer results than other pollsters: last time it was 52-48, this time it’s 54-46.

The poll also finds 32% support for a cut in the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than $50 million, with 44% opposed. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated that trade deals were good for employment, compared with 20% for poor; but 49% said Labor should vote against the Trans Pacific Partnership if it “doesn’t protect jobs”, with 20% taking the contrary view.

I’m not exactly sure what the field date was for the poll, but ReachTEL uses robopolling with samples of typically around 2300.

In other news, Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman today called an election for March 3, which means there will be no clash with South Australia this time, as there was in 2010 and 2014. I hope to have a full election guide posted later today, so stay tuned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

738 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Well I have the hotwater system and the pool filter set to the low tariff which does allow the utility to demand manage. These will be tuned off at peak times – usually morning and evening rush and you never notice but in the heat of the weekend noticed off at lunch time and early afternoon. Seems logical to use the same for air con in domestic homes.

  2. Jackol @ #630 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:41 pm

    Seat level polling will be as accurate as any other polling provided the sample size in each seat is adequate.

    It’s more than just about numbers. Because it is difficult to work out how to contact primarily people in the seats you are targeting, and whether your respondents even know which electorate they are enrolled in, seems to completely scramble any attempt to get a vaguely representative sample.

    Seat level polling has delivered much more unreliable results than you would expect from standard sampling error MoE.

    The old knocking on doors, face to face works fine. I speak from personal experience having been involved in one which yielded a result very close to the election result.

    Otherwise, I agree a phone poll would be very problematic unless you had a database which allowed selection of people within the desired electorate and included their phone number, landline or mobile.

    Political parties have such databases but I don’t know if they can make them available to a company engaged to do polling for them.

  3. jackol

    I would have thought that a system that turned off non-essential air-con or fridge/freezer for 5 or 10 minutes

    Not so sure about ‘fridge/freezer but 10 minutes in every hour off for the a/c wouldn’t worry me at all if there was a power shortage.

  4. lizzie says:
    Monday, January 29, 2018 at 6:40 pm
    Oh mercy!

    MALCOLM Turnbull has praised Donald Trump’s economic leadership, saying his sweeping tax cuts and slashing of regulation had benefited the entire world.
    ______________________

    Lizzie, I have better words than mercy, as I’m sure you do.

    What can you say to such idiocy?

    Beats me.

  5. What’s the point of having an air conditioner if you are going to have it remotely switched off when it is the hottest part of the hottest days of the year!?! Nuckin’ futs!

    I agree. It sounds like a reverse ponzi scheme to me.

  6. C@tmomma @ #645 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 8:10 pm

    What’s the point of having an air conditioner if you are going to have it remotely switched off when it is the hottest part of the hottest days of the year!?! Nuckin’ futs!

    That just reminds me of the Shiites that run around on one of their holy days whacking themselves with chains!

    Not this little black duck! Have air con, will use it! 😀

    Another 2GB fan outs herself!

  7. bemused

    I chose social media and they just asked one question, choose which form of social media I used most?

    You were rooked!

  8. Confessions @ #650 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    What’s the point of having an air conditioner if you are going to have it remotely switched off when it is the hottest part of the hottest days of the year!?! Nuckin’ futs!

    I agree. It sounds like a reverse ponzi scheme to me.

    Surprise, surprise, another follower of 2GB loonacy.

  9. Great barrier reef tourism operators have launched a new scheme to save the reef.
    Dinatale, fresh from his successful change the date campaign, where not a single blackfella saw their lot improved wil no doubt soon be doing his bit to not save a single coral polyp .
    Sweating the small stuff,
    Ban the drinking straw

  10. One of the standard bits of kit for the Australian infantry during the Vietnam War era was the Carl Gustav recoilless rifle.

    The only difficulty for the Aussie soldiers was that there was no ammunition. The Swedish Government reckoned that the Vietnam War was immoral and refused to resupply Australia with munitions.

    As chance would have it:

    http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/15629/the-army-rushes-a-1000-recoilless-rifles-to-troops-but-whats-a-carl-gustaf-anyway

  11. Great barrier reef tourism operators have launched a new scheme to save the reef.

    Ooo lordy, another stunt!

    Rachel Siewert wrote to all councils in WA urging them to change the date for their Aus Day activities. Instead of approaching this matter in a serious policy framework, she decided to issue this letter so it arrived with local govts the week of Aus Day, when most if not all councils had had their Aus Day activities planned for months previously.

    I talked to our mayor at our citizenship ceremony and he said it wasn’t the job of local govt to determine when Australia Day was, and the Greens would be better off doing their job as federal MPs instead of trying to operate as quasi councillors by trying to get in the business of local govt. IOW, a stunt.

    What a shame that the Greens have abrogated serious policy discussion about critically important matters such as environmental and social justice issues in favour of playing cheap politics.

  12. CTar1

    From the article “Last week, a four-member delegation representing what is left of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)” . Yep that would be about what as left 🙂 . Anyways, anyone who boycotts Sochi will, no matter the right on their side, end up with dust. Realpolitik and all that. Something the Kurds really should take more account of.

  13. Bipartisan opposition to a sugar tax.

    The influence of vested interests and lobby groups, political donations and access to politicians.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-29/mackay-tops-list-of-queenslands-heaviest-adults/9370172

    AMA Queensland President Bill Boyd:

    Mr Boyd said the Federal Government’s reluctance to impose a tax was motivated more by politics than evidence.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-24/sugar-tax-and-the-power-of-big-business/9353626

    Australia markets itself as a liberal democracy committed to the principles of equality and fairness.

    But in practice, those with clout or money or both can influence public policy in a way other members of the public cannot.

    Take the tax being proposed for sugary drinks. Despite the mountains of evidence pointing to the public health benefits of adopting this fiscal approach, powerful vested interests have muddied the waters and convinced politicians to go against the prevailing evidence.

    ::::
    In its 2016 annual report, the Beverages Council revealed that it had “devoted significant resources to keeping a tax off the policy table”. It named Ms Nash, Nick Xenophon and Labor’s Health spokeswoman Catherine King as “key politicians” it had successfully lobbied.

    :::
    One thing is certain, money talks or at the very least in Australia it gives you the opportunity to talk to power.

    For companies and political parties, having money paid to Labor and Liberal business forums instead of directly to the party, is a win-win in terms of avoiding scrutiny.

    This kind of soft power is undermining democratic processes the world over.

  14. I imagine that one of the unfortunate side effects of using one (particularly in open desert country) is that when you fire it everyone for many kilometers around knows exactly where you are.

  15. re dual citizenship

    I am with those who find it a little disturbing how ready some here are to mitigate and excuse the behaviour of the political class on this matter.

    Boerwar @ #604 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 5:26 pm

    Basically I believe in heavily armed neutrality.

    Friendly, and armed to the teeth. 🙂

    Jackol @ #638 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    You intend to allow your air conditioner to be remotely turned off on hot days? Really?

    I think we have yet to see how these demand management systems are going to work in practice.

    If they are crudely and disruptively managed then they will have a serious problem getting people to buy into them, and the system needs the users onside.

    I would have thought that a system that turned off non-essential air-con or fridge/freezer for 5 or 10 minutes in an hour at most in a controlled way would be no real inconvenience or involve much discomfort, and shave 10/15% of major demand factors at peak times would not be trivial.

    I suspect the power saved will be lost in removing the extra heat gained back during the period when the appliance is off. More or less a zero sum game.

    All this technique will do is help juggle the load a little, it will not reduce the overall load. Probably of some use, but only modest at best. No game changer.

    There are other issues:

    How do you determine and allow for differences in individual needs? Will the companies and government be allowed to set lower limits to how cold you can set the temperature on the a/c or fridge, or the upper temp for a heater, etc? How long you can have a pool pump running? Do some users get priority?

    What level of monitoring and control of power use are people prepared to accept from the power companies and the government?

    If you don’t care about privacy, then the load can be juggled and trimmed substantially more efficiently. But that is an awful lot of info about your personal habits you would be handing over to entities that have so far not proved particularly diligent and ethical in the handling of personal data.

  16. poroti

    Who the Americans would consider as ‘them’ for a peace conference would be a totally different group to what the Russians will invite to Sochi.

    Our original rebels -v- Your original rebels. 😀

    I guess we’ll have to wait and see who turns up.

  17. JM

    ‘ Basically I believe in heavily armed neutrality.

    Friendly, and armed to the teeth. ‘

    Yep.

    It has kept the Swedes out of having to actually fight a real war for a couple of centuries. Excellent model, IMO.

  18. JM –

    I suspect the power saved will be lost in removing the extra heat gained back during the period when the appliance is off. More or less a zero sum game.

    That’s assuming that all or most such systems (A/C at least) actually reach and maintain their target temperature. I don’t know but I doubt that’s the case, particularly on the most extreme days, which is what we’re talking about in context.

    If many peoples’ air conditioners are running full bore and not reaching their target temperature then an 83% (5/6) duty cycle will represent pretty close to a 17% reduction in consumption.

    Oh, and with regards to who has control – ultimately the consumer does because they get to choose whether to opt in or not. No one, as far as I know, is talking about forcing people onto these systems, but offering incentives like significantly lower power bills if you agree to put various appliances into the demand management domain.

  19. Bipartisan opposition to a sugar tax in Australia:

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/dozens-of-countries-now-tax-sugary-drinks-but-sweettoothed-australia-isnt-interested-20180103-h0cv21.html

    Fearing a juggernaut of industry opposition, the Coalition, Labor and key cross benchers have all said they are against a tax. Only the Greens are willing to support one.

    But pressure is growing from a coalition of 36 groups, including health, consumer and academic organisations, who are demanding a tax as well as other changes such as restricting marketing to children and making the health-star system mandatory.

    In an annual report accidentally shared on Twitter before being deleted, the Australian Beverages Council revealed that the fight against a tax was “consuming vast amounts of resources” but, by lobbying politicians and bureaucrats, it had managed to keep the policy off the table.

  20. JM @ #663 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 8:45 pm

    re dual citizenship

    I am with those who find it a little disturbing how ready some here are to mitigate and excuse the behaviour of the political class on this matter.

    Boerwar @ #604 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 5:26 pm

    Basically I believe in heavily armed neutrality.

    Friendly, and armed to the teeth. 🙂

    Jackol @ #638 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    You intend to allow your air conditioner to be remotely turned off on hot days? Really?

    I think we have yet to see how these demand management systems are going to work in practice.

    If they are crudely and disruptively managed then they will have a serious problem getting people to buy into them, and the system needs the users onside.

    I would have thought that a system that turned off non-essential air-con or fridge/freezer for 5 or 10 minutes in an hour at most in a controlled way would be no real inconvenience or involve much discomfort, and shave 10/15% of major demand factors at peak times would not be trivial.

    I suspect the power saved will be lost in removing the extra heat gained back during the period when the appliance is off. More or less a zero sum game.

    All this technique will do is help juggle the load a little, it will not reduce the overall load. Probably of some use, but only modest at best. No game changer.

    There are other issues:

    How do you determine and allow for differences in individual needs? Will the companies and government be allowed to set lower limits to how cold you can set the temperature on the a/c or fridge, or the upper temp for a heater, etc? How long you can have a pool pump running? Do some users get priority?

    What level of monitoring and control of power use are people prepared to accept from the power companies and the government?

    If you don’t care about privacy, then the load can be juggled and trimmed substantially more efficiently. But that is an awful lot of info about your personal habits you would be handing over to entities that have so far not proved particularly diligent and ethical in the handling of personal data.

    So you prefer “load shedding” where large areas lose all power, sometimes for hours at a time.

    I have read about remote controlling of devices by utilities as an alternative and it strikes me as far preferable to me.

    I don’t work in the industry so don’t know the details of how it can be implemented but, from comments made, some here do have ‘inside’ knowledge which I hope they will share.

  21. Peg

    Yet another Massive National Campaign to make loud noises while changing nothing coming on?

    You guys haven’t finished the last one yet.

    The Todd is still there. The jails are still full. The life expectancy is still a decade less. Kids are still suiciding.

    And now you are going for a sugar hit?

  22. Lawmakers in both parties said Sunday that the immigration debate should focus narrowly on efforts to legalize young immigrants known as “dreamers” and beef up border security, suggesting that President Trump’s demands to slash legal immigration levels are likely to sink a deal.

    Democrats have voiced fierce opposition to a White House plan, released late last week, that featured a path to citizenship for 1.8 million dreamers in exchange for $25 billion for his border wall and sharp cuts to family immigration visas.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/lawmakers-call-on-trump-to-drop-bid-for-legal-immigration-cuts/2018/01/28/2ad231b8-0458-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpdaca-650pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.ecb6434944cc

    Good to see the Democrats have agreed to Trump’s wall funding – let that be an albatross around his neck – while holding out for humane action on the Dreamers. And good on those moderate Republicans standing up for the Dreamers too.

  23. ‘fess

    And Trump is saying that he didn’t really want them deported. FMD – How many times did he say it while campaigning? (rhetorical question, of course.


  24. I suspect the power saved will be lost in removing the extra heat gained back during the period when the appliance is off. More or less a zero sum game.

    The point is the load is moved to a period that doesn’t overload the system.

  25. CTar1

    The original rebels seemed largely a pretty upright group, secular, pro democracy. Unfortunately they lasted for nanoseconds after the ‘professional jihadis arrived on the scene. The butcher the baker the candlestick maker and a smattering of SAA defectors training them had zero chance vs a crew who’d honed their teeth fighting Americans in Iraq etc.

  26. Boerwar,

    I understand your reluctance to say anything about Albanese’s contribution. Contrasts nicely with your well-established propensity to opine at great lengths about countless other issues.

    Why do you think he floated his proposal?

  27. On Friday Labor’s shadow infrastructure minister, Anthony Albanese, reinvigorated the debate by calling for two referendums to be held on Australia Day in 2019 on whether Australia should become a republic and whether to recognise Indigenous Australians in the constitution.

    It’s strange that Alabanese did not get the memo that this is an issue that Labor’s “brains trust” have deemed unworthy of action.

  28. ‘Pegasus says:
    Monday, January 29, 2018 at 9:08 pm

    Boerwar,

    I understand…’

    You will understand nothing until you have seen an Aboriginal kid with pus running out of his ears.

  29. Yes PL – and who will pay? For the rich – air conditioning and batteries, for the poor – suffer as they must.

    what a betrayal by Labor.

  30. We now all know what Christopher received fron Santa!
    The kids aren’t back in school and Pyne is turning us into arms powerhouse. We can’t compete in just about all forms of manufacturing except our politicians as they manufacture any amount bullshit to stay in office.
    It’s Time!

  31. I am air-conditioning fan myself, until I get the bill. But the shock soon wears off, usually when you can’t breathe from the heat and humidity.

  32. Ctari and poroti

    Yes the FSA (or whoever they are now)lost the plot quite early with jihadis dominating. Of course also many were sponsored by national organisations – Saudi, Jordan, Qatar, Turkey and USA.

    Basically they never seemed to have any leadership or even clear ideology. Much of it was simply sectarian ie Sunni versus Shia with a heavy does of rich oppressing poor, given the history of oppression by Sunnis on the poorer Allawi peasants.

    I think it is only a matter of time before there s a settlement in Idlib and pretty nych all the western part of Syria. Hopefully they wil be able to proceed quite quichly to some form of democratic elections and power sharing. Probably criticl will be some of that promised Chinese investment. If everyone is getting richer, then I am hopeful of a lasting calm.

    The Kurdish areas are another story and I am not sure what will happen.

    one thing that shpould be clear to most is that the US has dropped out of playing a lead negotiating role. Remember 2016 when Kertry was flying hither and thither (not doing too bad a job) and lclearly part of the process. One of the results of the Jerusalem decision is that US has more or less ruled itself out of being a peace broker in the Middle East.

  33. Boerwar,

    I understand your need for emotive rhetoric, why you make assumptions and your arrogance in believing you and you alone know.

  34. P1

    Which party do you think is in government at present?””

    This line has been getting a run around here lately by some Laborite apologists.

    From my pov it is amusing because, apparently though the Greens Party has never been in government, it’s responsible for all of Labor’s policy failures.

  35. Pegasus

    When you reach down and touch your best friends head and it’s a pile of goo….that’s it it’s Chinatown…

    Boerwar

  36. Peg

    This one is fancy language for severe pain, pus running out of your ears, hearing loss up to and including going deaf, failing at school, and generally being behind the eight ball for the next half century or so.

    This would be a considerable concern for the Greens politicians because the associated hearing loss means that the kids who are going deaf cannot her Di Natale’s main message about how Changing the Date is the single most important priority for Indigenous Australians.

    https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/indigenous/hpf-2017/tier1/115.html

  37. Boerwar @ #668 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 8:56 pm

    Peg

    Yet another Massive National Campaign to make loud noises while changing nothing coming on?

    You guys haven’t finished the last one yet.

    The Todd is still there. The jails are still full. The life expectancy is still a decade less. Kids are still suiciding.

    And now you are going for a sugar hit?

    It just puts up in neon lights how The Greens are a mile wide and an inch deep. Feckless, with a capital ‘G’.

  38. Republican lawmakers in a half-dozen states are launching fresh efforts to expand Medicaid, the nation’s health insurance program for the poor, as party holdouts who had blocked the expansion say they’re now open to it because of Trump administration guidelines allowing states to impose new requirements that program recipients work to get benefits.

    In Utah, a Republican legislator working with the GOP governor says he hopes to pass a Medicaid expansion plan with work requirements within the year. In Idaho, a conservative lawmaker who steadfastly opposed Medicaid expansion in the past says the new requirements make him more open to the idea. And in Wyoming, a Republican senator who previously opposed expansion — a key part of President Barack Obama’s health-care law — says he’s ready to take another look at fellow Republicans’ expansion efforts in his state.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/how-trump-may-end-up-expanding-medicaid-whether-he-means-to-or-not/2018/01/28/df2ee6e8-01e1-11e8-8acf-ad2991367d9d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_statemedicaid-820pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.eb553fe2248f

  39. bemused @ #645 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 5:04 pm

    Player One @ #625 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:28 pm

    a r @ #622 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 7:21 pm

    Are you saying I should be wary of opting in to PeakSmart™?

    You intend to allow your air conditioner to be remotely turned off on hot days? Really?

    Then why on earth did you buy one?

    And away goes P1 picking up the same issue as I heard the 2GB loons banging on about.

    The point is, they would do it for a short role in rotation so that you would experience very little difference in effect. The idea is that this is better than the crude load shedding they have had to undertake in the past when areas would be blacked out completely for considerable periods.

    Demand Side Management (DSM) has been working well in Western Australia for years, so I’m not sure what the fuss on the east coast is.

    It’s not compulsory to participate in DSM, nor is it compulsory to take the financial incentives for doing so. But lets not let the facts get in the way of a good story.

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