The first ReachTEL poll of the year for Sky News is one of the Coalition’s better results of recent times, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 53-47 to 52-48 from the previous poll on November 28. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 34%; Labor is steady on 36%; the Greens are steady on 10%; and One Nation is down one to 8%.
Malcolm Turnbull also records a strong improvement on his personal ratings, being rated good by 30% (up six), average by 37% (up two) and poor by 32% (down eight). Bill Shorten is on 31% good (up one), 32% average (down four) and 36% poor (up three-and-a-half). Turnbull has increased his lead on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, which typically produces closer results than other pollsters: last time it was 52-48, this time it’s 54-46.
The poll also finds 32% support for a cut in the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than $50 million, with 44% opposed. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated that trade deals were good for employment, compared with 20% for poor; but 49% said Labor should vote against the Trans Pacific Partnership if it “doesn’t protect jobs”, with 20% taking the contrary view.
I’m not exactly sure what the field date was for the poll, but ReachTEL uses robopolling with samples of typically around 2300.
In other news, Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman today called an election for March 3, which means there will be no clash with South Australia this time, as there was in 2010 and 2014. I hope to have a full election guide posted later today, so stay tuned.
Those renewable electrons are blowing fuses:
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hotter-and-more-humid-melbourne-is-about-to-get-very-muggy-20180127-h0pbxn.html
I agree Gimace, I’m amazed that some here wish to cut them some slack.
We’d like to think our politicians are mildly competent, so filling out a form correctly shouldn’t be too taxing or asking too much.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/28/australia-unveils-plan-to-become-one-of-worlds-top-10-arms-exporters
The best thing about last night was that the power didn’t go off.
Why do we need a gun industry? They strike me as being full of corporate rent seekers and an industry dependent on government handouts.
lizzie says:
Monday, January 29, 2018 at 5:58 am
The best thing about last night was that the power didn’t go off.
________________
And Federer won his 20th Grand Slam. Oldest to do so since Rosewall in 1972, when he was a year older than Federer.
Rosewall’s first-place cheque was for $2,240. How times have changed.
BiGD
Kevin’s point that some revocation of citizenship much easier than others is worth some consideration.
So I guess some judgement is going to be needed if ‘gave it your best go’ is retained.
The primary purpose of having weapons is not to have to use them.
The secondary purpose of having weapons is not to lose a war.
For both purposes, weapons have to be able to kill people and destroy things.
The only valid reason not to have a defence industry at all is if one were to support Australia having no army, navy or airforce.
The only valid reason not to export arms is if one were to believe that Australia should have no allies.
IoM
Obviously some chemical manufacturer has convinced Turnbull, the Defence ministers, Trade and Industry that they can manufacture artillery shells and make money at it.
There was a large sale made to Saudi Arabia last year I recall.
We’ve also got lots of companies involved in making and successfully selling lots of ships radar detection systems, as well.
Boerwar
It doesn’t seem to prevent killings in US.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/28/five-dead-shooting-pennsylvania-car-wash-melcroft-saltlick-township?CMP=soc_568
lizzie
Ah, yes, but the US is exceptional.
lizzie
I think Bw is talking about military grade stuff like artillery and ammunition for heavy ‘guns’ rather than hand-guns and the like.
lizzie says:
Monday, January 29, 2018 at 6:32 am
Boerwar
The primary purpose of having weapons is not to have to use them.
It doesn’t seem to prevent killings in US.
______________
Taken in isolation, and out of context, that is true.
But to be fair, BW was not talking about guns for the average joe, he was talking about the ones for government defence forces.
Boerwar , CTar1 , don
Yea, I know, I know, but it came up on my Twitstream immediately after I read B’s post, and it was irresistible. 🙂
CTar1 @ #307 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 2:20 am
But that’s the thing, after the HC challenges it’s going to be much clearer.
The Libs and Greens have shown that if you do nothing, you’re f’d.
Roberts has shown if you don’t follow the correct steps, you’re f’d.
Anyone in these situations would no longer need to be referred as we have seen with Alexander, Parry and Lambie. They just resigned.
And now, Gallagher will tell us about someone who has done everything they can do but the other country finalised the renunciation.
Canavan and X have also given guidance but they are a bit greyer and someone similar would probably need to be referred.
So the vast majority of the cases that have been referred, if they occur again won’t be referred because it is clear.
There will always be less straight forward cases and those would need to be referred but these will be the minority of any of them.
What? And admit that CC is real?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Deloitte’s Chris Richardson says that the government is getting set o leave another poison pill budget.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-could-be-a-poison-pill-deloitte-access-economics-warns-20180125-h0odqa.html
Peter van Onselen writes that Turnbull will have his work cut out to claim superiority in economic management. Google.
/opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/economic-management-is-no-easy-pitch-for-the-coalition/news-story/2cfc6734400bf67db56466cc2d81cb03
John Quiggin writes that privatisation is deeply unpopular with voters and tells us how to end it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/29/privatisation-is-deeply-unpopular-with-voters-heres-how-to-end-it
The head of ABC News says, “The overall strategy for us is to hit the pause button and step outside the frenetic news cycle, and spend a bit more time explaining a story by going in a bit deeper.”. Then let’s hope that they stop parroting political press releases without any consideration of their veracity.
http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/in-era-of-opinion-abc-news-doubles-down-on-facts-20180126-h0onmj.html
Greg Jericho outlines why 2018 is going to be a big year when to comes to industrial relations.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jan/28/expect-a-big-fight-on-industrial-relations-this-year-as-low-wage-growth-fuels-discontent
China has hit the road running with electric cars. Australia is giving electric cars the climate change treatment.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/australia-debates-value-of-electric-vehicles-while-china-pushes-ahead-20180125-p4yyws.html
Urban Wronski with Turnbull invoking white supremacy for Australia Day.
https://urbanwronski.com/2018/01/28/turnbull-cooks-up-white-supremacy-for-australia-day/
Barnaby Joyce has dismissed the idea of forming an independent anti-corruption watchdog to oversee federal politics, saying the Senate already performs the function well. Well he would say that wouldn’t he.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/28/barnaby-joyce-federal-icac-unnecessary-as-senate-has-anti-corruption-powers
Australia’s big banks slashed loans to fossil fuel companies by almost a fifth in 2017.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-slash-coal-loans-by-50-per-cent-as-investor-pressure-mounts-20180125-p4yyvo.html
They stand condemned.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/the-bishop-the-priest-and-the-sins-of-omission-20180126-h0p51h.html
Trump says he’s not aware of any invitation for him to attend Prince Harry’s wedding to Meghan Markle. I can imagine the reception he’d get in the UK!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-unsure-of-royal-wedding-invitation-20180128-h0peld.html
Erica’s senior advisor has taken up the reins of the federal Young Liberals. Should be a good fit!
http://www.smh.com.au/act-news/josh-manuatu-elected-president-of-the-young-liberals-20180128-h0pg9q.html
A rare celestial event will grace the skies during the coming week when a blue moon and lunar eclipse combine with the moon being at its closest point to Earth, resulting in what is being called a “super blue blood moon”.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/28/super-blue-blood-moon-stargazers-gear-up-for-rare-celestial-event
ADF chief Angus Campbell warns that artificially intelligent drones that can kill on their own will increasingly pose a challenge to Australia’s value,
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/killer-robots-used-by-unethical-enemies-will-threaten-australia-army-chief-warns-20180127-h0pchl.html
A hidden clause in the Turnbull government’s foreign donations crackdown bill will decimate donations to grassroots political campaigners, activist group GetUp! claims. There’s stuff in the legislation that reeks of some of the voter registration problems in the US,
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/absurd-governments-donations-crackdown-threatens-grassroots-campaign-funding-20180128-h0pgtz.html
In an announcement today the Coalition will give loans to defence companies as they look to make Australia the world’s 10th largest arms exporter. Google.
/national-affairs/defence/coalitions-38bn-bid-to-drive-defence-exports/news-story/611c41f31c0a4de48b3f411ed8dd1663
A year after taking Labor party leadership, self-described “farm-girl” Rebecca White could become Tasmania’s second female premier after the March 3 election just called.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tasmania-will-be-heading-to-polls-on-march-3-20180128-h0pdx2.html
Jess Irvine tells us that we are all free trade people now, despite Trump’s tantrums.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/we-are-all-davos-men-now-free-trade-triumphs-despite-trumps-trade-tantrums-20180126-h0p4xb.html
Australia is heading down the road towards Trump’s America, Wayne Swan has warned – but the former Labor treasurer says it is not too late to reverse course.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/29/australia-dont-become-trumps-america-warns-wayne-swan
Will they need an Allen key and dubious instructions to close the coffin?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/ingvar-kamprad-father-of-the-ikea-flatpack-furniture-revolution-dead-at-91-20180128-h0pnwr.html
This is an interesting discourse on the changing face of Australia’s drug use.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/hooked-for-30-years-the-changing-faces-of-australias-drug-misuse-20180125-h0ole9.html
Defence Minister Marise Payne was almost removed in the last reshuffle and may still leave to become NATO ambassador. Google.
/news/policy/defence/defence-minister-marise-payne-was-almost-removed-in-december-20180126-h0ov60
Some families are finding it very difficult in the BYOD education system.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/laptops-for-school-still-costing-families-as-government-roll-out-begins-20180125-h0oem4.html
A reasonable contribution from Amanda Vanstone.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/its-2018-so-let-us-begin-anew-20180127-h0p6jz.html
Paris is really copping a flooding.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/paris-on-flood-alert-as-rising-seine-threatens-the-louvre-20180128-h0pgnb.html
Cartoon Corner
Another David Rowe dip at Trump.
Jim Pavlidis on how world free trade is handling Trump.
Nice work here from Matt Golding.
More from Mark David on 26 January.
A ripper from Broelman.
Four more from Matt Golding.
A poignant contribution from Glen Le Lievre.
Alan Moir and a different Australia Day celebration.
Jon Kudelka with Trump’s trade negotiation method.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1d4aae5fcd82dc4e05adb1b5fbd695eb
Pat Campbell’s Australia DAY.
lizzie @ #316 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 3:00 am
CC?
It is!!!
Clean Coal. 🙂 🙂
BiGD
Yep. There should be enough to make a judgement in most cases.
If I recall correctly there’s still a number of mainly Coalition members who treated the Citizenship register exercise with contempt and have obvious more info needed.
Turnbull has used his ‘numbers’ so they are not ‘referred.
They should be hunted down as soon as possible.
(Your travel to Malaysia proceeded OK, I hope. Enjoy!)
Government “Establishing a Defence Export Facility” to facilitate”
Yeah riiight … when you dig a little all they are doing is putting it up the priority list for the existing Export Finance Insurance Commission (‘EFIC’) – https://www.efic.gov.au/
Ben Raue
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/29/tasmanian-election-hung-parliament-would-be-wake-up-call-to-major-parties
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
Big story on Early AM this morning, and every ABC news bulletin since, is that Abbott, Hockey and Cormann had a plan for the Horror 2014 Budget to cancel ALL welfare payments for Australians under 30 if they didn’t take ANY job offered to them!
I can just imagine what sort of jobs they would get offered to them. The ones where you are on call for a Labour Hire company, and if work comes along you get a phone call from them telling you where to go and to be there by a certain time and, if you are late (when you have to drop everything and race to make it on time), you get the sack. Or, you work in a job in dangerous conditions until you inevitably have an accident, after which you are summarily sacked by the Labour Hire company who contracts labour to the business, as there is no provision for Sick Leave as they make you sign a contract before you start work and get an ABN so that you become an ‘Independent Sub Contractor’, responsible for your own medical care.
Then, once you are dismissed, usually by text message, you have to reapply to Centrelink and go through the qualification and waiting period all over again!
This I know to be true because it is what my son has been through on the way to getting his first real job, not via a Labour Hire company (which he started this morning, actually, thank goodness for that).
Tony Abbott, Joe ‘Just get a good job’ Hockey, and Matthias Cormann, for supposed Christians, behave(d) more like the devil’s spawn.
The amount of homelessness and family dislocation, disruption and trauma that action would have caused if it had gone through to the 2014 Budget, and it was only prevented by a concerted effort by Kevin Andrews of all people, would have been on a scale never before seen in Australia. There’s a story today in BK’s links today by Wayne Swan about not wanting to go down the American path, well, these guys were all for it! Elite scum, that’s all they are.
http://insidestory.org.au/the-popular-mr-x/
BK – Kudulka’s on to Trump’s negotiating methodology –
– Say you want to be involved,
– Arrive just before the meeting is to conclude (so you can say later you don’t know how the other parties came to their conclusion),
– make an ambigious speech,
– refuse to be part of a joint statement before you leave (early, of course),
– get back to the US and say almost as soon as you arrive say you’re withdrawing,
-then watch the others convene again or finalise between them what they’ll do in the absence of the US as part of the agreement,
And then say ‘maybe, you will but only if you give us these advantages over the rest of you’.
It’s a pattern to keep disrupting the process in an effort to get his way.
From Monsieur BKs Dawn Patrol
Those would be drones released by killers without the benefit of the much prized and quoted “Australian Values”. We all know that our artificially intelligent drones have served us well going back to the “War That Ended All Wars”.
We noble Australians would never stoop to such barbarity. Our killer drones would be only released by responsible killers with a suitable background in saluting and flag raising.
All together now as we render our spirited version of the National Anthem.
♫♪Beneath our radiant♫ Southern Cross
We’ll toil with hearts and hands; ♫To make this Commonwealth of ours♪
♫Renowned of all the lands;
For those who’ve ♪ come across the sea We’ve boundless♫ plains to share; With ♫courage let us all
combine
To ♫Advance Australia Fair.
In joyful strains then let us sing, ♫♪Advance Australia Fair.
Jeez Cynthia, why is nobody singing ❓ Fuggit, I told you to hand out them there song sheets.
We’ll start again and do it over until we get it right.
“Tap, tap” (baton).
♫Beneath our radiant Southern ♪Cross
Ah, Christ, I need coffee. ☕
Cynthia, when you have a moment, would you find out if artificially intelligent drones can conduct funeral services.
Morning all and thanks BK. The article on the aftermath on the child abuse RC is depressing. No actual reform from the catholic church, only promises. And why set up a (public?) compensation scheme when the offending organisations are assett rich?
Tasmania has a long history of hung Parliaments. The major parties didn’t ignore these results (it’s why they’re reluctant to form government with the Greens, and why they say they’re going to govern in their own right) but their existence didn’t change the world in the way Raue seems to think a hung Parliament now would.
Israel is rightly annoyed that Poland wants to outlaw blaming it for its part in enabling the holocaust. Many Poles helped round up Jews. The mention of the murder of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Germans by Poles at the end of the war is also conspicuously absent. The book Bloodlands is a great read on this grim, well hidden period.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-28/israel-criticises-holocaust-legislation/9368570
Socrates
The current polish government is dominated by ultra-right trad polish RC fundies. The RC (whether the eclesiastic organisation, the theologists, or the laity) would rather not have its role in the Holocaust – in Poland and elsewhere – subject to too much investigation.
KayJay – ‘Killer drones’. It’s an easy ask if you don’t have any.
We’ve probably still got cluster bombs stored away somewhere.
CTaR1
Yep. Inter alia, it builds up a massive resentment at the bad faith.
Arguably robocop is a killer drone.
John Quiggin gets it as does the public.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/29/privatisation-is-deeply-unpopular-with-voters-heres-how-to-end-it
Turnbull must have shares in Arms Suppliers. Or, at least Lucy does. 😉
Albanese interview this morning on ABC RN Breakfast:
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/constitution-inadequate-while-is-doesnt-recognise-indigenous-aus/9369352
He was also asked about other issues including the abolition of pokie machines in clubs.
CTar1 @ #319 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 3:13 am
Haven’t left the airport yet, waiting for the sun and my bus.
Plenty of hijabs, niqabs and even a couple of burkas and don’t they all look wonderful.
Well maybe not the burkas, it was hard to tell if they were facing me or not.
But I should be on the beach just after lunch, so all’s good.
Bw – And Mathias Cormann? 😀
C@t @7:37AM: I always regarded the 2014 Budget as the first step in what the Coalition want to do. I believe that the long term game plan includes the abolition of unemployment benefits and the replacement of Medicare with private insurance arrangements. And the IPA wants to abolish the minimum wage.
CTaR1
lol
More stupid ‘needling’ from Trump while being interviewed by Piers Morgan –
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42848705
What a turkey.
Day 14.
Difference?
Nil.
Russia, the free democracy so popular with the people:
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/28/europe/russian-protests-navalny-office-intl/index.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/27/europe/alexei-navalny-says-putin-regime-is-corrupt-intl/index.html
BiC
“BiC” – You planning to take over the Baron’s business?
😆
And we wonder why the US is in so much trouble!
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/27/millions-of-americans-believe-god-made-trump-president-216537
BK
Insane.
God made God?
BK
“Millions believe God made Trump president”
Maaate, plain outright blame shifting!
I love how the media has decided that the economic news is good, conveniently ignoring absolutely every piece of economic data that contradicts this thought.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/coalition-dreams-of-a-future-in-which-malcolm-turnbull-actually-succeeds-20180125-h0oivz.html
As one particularly idiotic example.
Debt more than double what it was during the “debt and deficit disaster”.
Debt rising (deficit) more than 5x what it was during the “debt and deficit disaster”.
Interest rates stuck at emergency lows, with economists delaying the expected rate rise by 2 months every month.
And yet with all that emergency response (which isn’t sustainable long term), we still are just stuttering along, with no real growth in wages, decreasing real gdp per capita, consumer sentiment weak, and no investments being made in things to grow the economy (education for example).
Good Morning
I wonder who leaked the Under 30 year olds to starve discussion?
I think probably Turnbull who can’t see his being in Cabinet puts his fingers all over it as well.
No outraged resignation from Mr Spineless.
BK
What they have yet to realise is that God did it to punish them 🙂
When the submarine palaver was on, an eon ago, and we were debating the wisdom of a $60 billion pork barrel for SA, whether the French or the Japanese would be the builders etc. I suggested that something like drone torpedoes might be a far more effective alternative to manned submarines.
They would be cheaper (much), faster (much) and smarter. Half a dozen stationed outside each of our naval bases would sink anything that ventured out. Until required, they could lurk on standby power almost indefinitely.
Being somewhat familiar with aerial drone technology (prosumer, not mil-spec) I thought that China would be the obvious source of this naval technology. The stuff you can buy in a suburban camera shop far surpassed anything military from even a decade ago. Subversive (but perfectly legal) 3rd party software available for $10 a download now allows fully autonomous flying using image recognition instead of GPS.
Imagine what the *really* secret stuff (the stuff you can’t just buy over the counter) can – and probably is – doing!
Drones are revolutionising commerce, surveillance and warfare. The rest is pure politics.