ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

The first ReachTEL poll for the year records an improvement in Malcolm Turnbull’s fortunes. Other news: Tasmania’s election will be held on March 3.

The first ReachTEL poll of the year for Sky News is one of the Coalition’s better results of recent times, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 53-47 to 52-48 from the previous poll on November 28. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 34%; Labor is steady on 36%; the Greens are steady on 10%; and One Nation is down one to 8%.

Malcolm Turnbull also records a strong improvement on his personal ratings, being rated good by 30% (up six), average by 37% (up two) and poor by 32% (down eight). Bill Shorten is on 31% good (up one), 32% average (down four) and 36% poor (up three-and-a-half). Turnbull has increased his lead on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, which typically produces closer results than other pollsters: last time it was 52-48, this time it’s 54-46.

The poll also finds 32% support for a cut in the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than $50 million, with 44% opposed. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated that trade deals were good for employment, compared with 20% for poor; but 49% said Labor should vote against the Trans Pacific Partnership if it “doesn’t protect jobs”, with 20% taking the contrary view.

I’m not exactly sure what the field date was for the poll, but ReachTEL uses robopolling with samples of typically around 2300.

In other news, Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman today called an election for March 3, which means there will be no clash with South Australia this time, as there was in 2010 and 2014. I hope to have a full election guide posted later today, so stay tuned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

738 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Confessions @ #393 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 10:12 am

    Vic:

    Yep, that report shows RICO is still in play even with a sitting President.

    On Nunes and Sessions I doubt either are smart enough to play double agent!

    Yeah. One, Nunes, is an overly-ambitious man on the make in the Republican Party, so probably would have kissed up to whoever the Repugs had as POTUS; the other, Sessions, is a bigot, who saw his best opportunity to get his pet policies enacted via Trump.

  2. Confessions @ #399 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 10:23 am

    C@t:

    Of course. And don’t forget they’ve spent a lot of time casting Mueller’s investigation as flawed, based on conspiracies and fake news, and aimed at bringing Trump down, in essence to either make it easier to fire him if he starts uncovering uncomfortable truths, or to dismiss his findings at the conclusion of the investigation.

    Yep. The Repugs have their agenda and they are darn well going to see it through to the bitter end, come hell or high water, and Trump is the guy they think can gull the public and actually become the sort of Strong Man Authoritarian leader the American public will allow.

  3. I listened to Jon Faine on ABC local Radio Melbourne 774. From 8:45 to 8::55 ie minutes 15 to 25 of this mornings broadcast he was talking to Defence Procurement analyst from Canberra ??? Babbage? and listener comments later

    The new money is to be spent in South Australia
    We don’t own the licenses for much of the manufacturing today so its unlikely we can build up an export market as the license owners will take the manufacturing elsewhere.
    No money is being spent in Victoria in fact Victorian defence manufacturing is still scheduled for closure

    Upshot: Announcement timed to bolster the Liberals chances at the upcoming South Australian election on March 17

    Who owns the licenses for the Thales Underwater Warfare

  4. Thanks for the heads-up, Billie. So, basically the Thales announcement is all show, for the Coalition’s benefit, in SA especially, and no real go for Australia.

  5. Thanks, I will give it to my boss this morning as an ‘assignment’
    ________________
    poroti
    I ran a few workshops with various companies on this subject. It was quite cathartic for some with years of frustration coming to the fore.
    If you’re interested I put together a powerpoint presentation on throughput accounting which I could email to you if you’re interested.

  6. The next deadline for the US implementing sanctions against Russia is creeping up. If ever Trumpville needed a good excuse, the arrest of Putin’s political opponent should be sufficient.

    But I doubt anything will happen.

  7. Good article on outspoken GOP strategist and Trump botherer, Rick Wilson

    The loudest #NeverTrump voice is Florida Republican Rick Wilson

    He emerged as a leading critic during the 2016 campaign and he has not let up, becoming a national figure through an incessant Twitter feed, outraged-fueled cable news appearances and as a columnist who mixes salty humor with serious viewpoints.

    http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/01/28/the-loudest-nevertrump-voice-is-florida-republican-rick-wilson/

  8. The Victorian government is very quick to explain that they are responsible for ensuring there is enough power in Victoria but the distributors Jemena, United, Citipower are responsible for maintaining the substations, and the substations broke down. Note to maintenance team – substations near the beach get salt damage thus corrode quicker

    I am quite sure the power companies are aware of which houses run airconditioning, electric hotwater services, electric heating

    It’s a pity the effected suburbs are in the swinging sandbelt which Labor desperately needs to retain power

    Could Labor promise to renationalise the electricity system after 30 years of failed privatisation?

  9. About the only noteworthy thing of the defence exports rubbish.

    Tas election is 2 weeks before the Sa election, and the starting gun was fired yesterday.

    The Coalition appear to have given up on Tas and be focusing all of the pork on SA, as they think it is more winnable.

  10. billie says:
    Monday, January 29, 2018 at 10:38 am

    I am quite sure the power companies are aware of which houses run airconditioning, electric hotwater services, electric heating

    _______________________

    What makes you so sure? Off peak hot water they would know about, since they install special equipment, but I fail to see how they would know about electric heating – unless you mean underfloor heating or similar which is sometimes offpeak.

    But airconditioners? I doubt it.

  11. c@t

    The Repugs do have their agenda, but those who are caught up in this imbroglio will make deals to save their own skin. That is what I believe has been occurring over a long period of time. Hence why my feeling that Sessions and Nunes have long ago flipped and are doing kabuki

  12. I find it ironic that all the bully and bluster is about energy provision, but little is said about water: poisoned aquifers, dried up rivers and the Murray-Darling water thefts.

  13. BK

    Me interested in your powerpoint as well.

    You’ve been good enough to send me something before. You may still have my email address – ends in @bigblue.net.au?

  14. VE

    Turnbull announced a ‘city deal’ with Hodgeman the other week. I dont think at this point the Libs have given up on TAS.

    Most polls have them continuing to be in power on 13/14 out of 25 seats, or falling just short on 12.

  15. phoenixRed:

    I read that article and it turned me off him. I’ve only really experienced him on Real Time and through tweets that people post here, but in that article he sounds like a bit of a dick.

  16. Further to my comments above, TAS is more likely to return a majority Lib gov than South Australia due to Xenophon. However South Aus is a way more important state to a couple of federal power players (Pyne).

  17. @ Ides – I don’t see how you can claim that.

    Ignoring the Liberal Party commissioned poll (they may have commissioned multiple polls and released only the one favorable one), the Liberal’s vote share starts with a 3.

    That is not conducive to winning a % of seats starting with a 5 in the Hare Clark System.

  18. Isn’t the SA Labor Govt quite long in the tooth and due for replacement anyways? A poor new LNP, or a disastrous time with LNP / NXT might be quite helpful to Shorty later in the year?

  19. The NSW government has refused to release the names of corporations enjoying the greater part of its $1.8 billion in tax breaks lest they be exposed to “harsh public criticism” and scrutiny, documents released under freedom of information reveal.

    In 2016 then-Treasurer Gladys Berejiklian announced a $400 million a year slashing of taxes on the transfer of shares between private companies and trusts, business mortgages and intangible assets such as intellectual property. Over four years they are expected to cost $1.8 billion in revenue.

    But the state government is refusing to release a list of the businesses that will benefit the most from the tax cuts, likely to include commercial property developers, to spare singling them out for public scrutiny.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/corporation-tax-breaks-kept-secret-to-avoid-harsh-criticism-foi-documents-20180125-h0onae.html

  20. VE

    I was under the impression most TAS polling had the libs between 39 and 42% primary, Labor lower 30s and Greens low to high teens?

  21. Confessions says: Monday, January 29, 2018 at 10:47 am

    phoenixRed:

    I read that article and it turned me off him. I’ve only really experienced him on Real Time and through tweets that people post here, but in that article he sounds like a bit of a dick.

    *******************************************************

    I think the word “strange” with guns is apt. Like they say about Florida – everything is 80 – the temperature, the age of retirees who flock there and the average IQ of its residents ….. think of how many elections have revolved around Florida

  22. Confessions @ #405 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 10:37 am

    The next deadline for the US implementing sanctions against Russia is creeping up. If ever Trumpville needed a good excuse, the arrest of Putin’s political opponent should be sufficient.

    But I doubt anything will happen.

    ‘Trump keeps campaign promises!?!’

    What about ‘Mexico will pay for the wall’!?!

    Anyway, Lou Dobbs is a shill who got sacked from CNN, I think it was and so went to Fox, where he will do anything and say anything to keep his job.

  23. CTar1,

    You’d think that it wouldn’t be beyond the whit of power companies and the government to organise a simple notification to them of installations at homes and businesses of items that consume more than ‘n’ amount of electricity supplied from the grid.

    Ha ha, NFC.

    Retailers “own” the meter data, and have no reason to tell networks what’s going on. When networks do finally get access to interval meter data, they are more interested in finding energy theft (typically crop lamps) than managing their networks.

    Last night’s debacle could have been easily prevented with the technology out there in the field, but not with our institutional arrangements.

  24. phoenixRed:

    Yes, owning 60 guns, some of which are assault rifles that he fires off in his backyard is pretty strange.

    And his behaviour towards Anne Coulter was pretty icky.

  25. C@t:

    It’s laughable how many promises he’s either broken, walked away from, or just flat out lied about. The wall promise alone went from a definite ‘I will build a wall, and Mexico will pay for it’ to ‘I will build a wall and Mexico will pay us back’ to ‘there will be a wall….someday’, and nothing about Mexico.

  26. So who in Victoria is laughing at NSW and QLD for “gold plating” their networks now?

    Just wait until there a few tens-of-thousands of EV plugged in at the same time. You’ll be celebrating the days the distribution networks don’t collapse.

  27. Don,

    How do the power companies know who has airconditioning?

    1. well Melbourne water knows which dwellings are unoccupied from their water usage
    2. When my airconditioning was installed I had to get a a new power board with its own circuit
    3. so in the same way the power company knows if you cook on gas or electricity
    4. Google maps is used by authorities to inspect properties, most airconditioning units can be identified from the visual inspection
    5. Citipower offered to install solar panels and battery storage on a friend’s house AFTER they had determined usage, roof alignment and identified a lockable under cover area outside the house for placement of the battery

    Big brother is watching!

    It is well known in Victoria that insufficient linesmen have been trained since the State Electricity Commission was broken up and sold as individual electricians aren’t big enough to train the numbers of apprentices needed

  28. Australia is set to become one of the world’s largest arms exporters under a controversial plan of the Turnbull government’s.

    So while we are banning the import of guns to prevent Australians from being killed by them we want to manufacture and export them to other countries for profit. You know it makes sense.

  29. Don Further

    remember that the 2009 bushfires that burnt Kinglake and along the Hume Highway were attributed to lack of maintenance and fire preparation under the high voltage transmission lines owned ant that stage by a Singapore outfit

    So I reckon the blackouts were caused by sloppy maintenance schedules

  30. David Marler‏
    @Qldaah

    A very happy man. Millions in tax payer funding coming his way. Perhaps some a few thousand in donations heading the Liberal Party way too. #auspol

  31. Typical coincident peak demand – CPD – is the measure used to size residential feeders (i.e. power lines). This is the measure of total expected peak demand (not individual) on a power line divided by the number of customers below the 240V/415V distribution transformer (or a medium voltage zone substation).

    In Australia, the networks have been built for a CPD of about 4.5kW (cf. in the UK it is only 1.5kW, because most heating is gas, and cooling isn’t an issue).

    So consider:
    – How many properties have an airconditioner with much greater power than 4.5kW?
    – What time does the sun set, reducing PV generation?
    – What time do people start cooking inside (for a lot of them), raising their cooling load?

    And, please, tell me again that PV will solve all our power problems.

  32. Victoria @ #412 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 10:44 am

    c@t

    The Repugs do have their agenda, but those who are caught up in this imbroglio will make deals to save their own skin. That is what I believe has been occurring over a long period of time. Hence why my feeling that Sessions and Nunes have long ago flipped and are doing kabuki

    vic,
    I think Sessions, maybe. He wouldn’t have liked being confronted with the evidence against him, then contemplating living out the term of his natural life in a Federal Penitentiary.

    Devious Devin, I’m not so sure. I think he’s trying to play both ends against the middle and whoever wins the Mueller V Trump battle is the one he will park his allegiance next to.

  33. @ Ides

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_state_election,_2018#Polling

    Coalition are in the mid to high 30s. Their last 40 in a real poll was in 2016

    Labor are in the mid 30s. They did have one poll at 29, but that poll had a huge ‘greens’ and ‘others’ component and it was bad for the Libs as well, so would still have led to a hung parliament with Greens as BoP.

    Greens are in the mid to high teens.

    Sportsbet gives you $7 on ‘Liberal majority government’, well out from Labor minority ($1.4) or Liberal Minority $4.5 – Sportsbet think it more likely that the Libs will negotiate a deal with the Greens (or JLN will do better than expected) than govern in majority.

  34. I’ve Watched Trump Testify Under Oath. It Isn’t Pretty.

    In a 2007 deposition in my libel case (which he lost), he was underprepared and overconfident

    Speaking from experience, I think the president’s attorneys should grab their worry beads. Trump sued me for libel in 2006 for a biography I wrote, “TrumpNation,” alleging that the book misrepresented his business record and understated his wealth. Trump lost the suit in 2011, but during the litigation my lawyers deposed him under oath for two days in 2007. We had the opportunity to ask Trump about his business and banking practices, his taxes, his personal finances and his professional relationships.

    My attorney was Mary Jo White, a former federal prosecutor steeped in many of the same legal traditions and courtroom experiences as Mueller. It didn’t go well for the future president.

    Hammered by White and her deputies, Trump ultimately had to admit 30 times that he had lied over the years about all sorts of stuff: how much of a big Manhattan real estate project he owned; the price of one of his golf club memberships; the size of the Trump Organization; his wealth; his speaking fees; how many condos he had sold; his debts, and whether he borrowed money from his family to avoid going personally bankrupt. He also lied during the deposition about his business dealings with career criminals.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-01-25/i-ve-watched-trump-testify-under-oath-it-isn-t-pretty

    .

  35. Did anyone else have trouble getting past the paywall with this article linked by BK? I tried googling it in different ways but no dice. I’ve never had this trouble before that I can recall.

    Google.
    /opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/economic-management-is-no-easy-pitch-for-the-coalition/news-story/2cfc6734400bf67db56466cc2d81cb03

  36. William,

    Would you be good enough to forward BK my e-mail address.

    Has your general purpose e-mail address disappeared from the new site or am I just missing it (likely)?

    Regards.

  37. This will set the cat amongst the free market pigeons in the GOP!

    Trump national security officials are considering an unprecedented federal takeover of a portion of the nation’s mobile network to guard against China, according to sensitive documents obtained by Axios.

    https://www.axios.com/trump-team-debates-nationalizing-5g-network-f1e92a49-60f2-4e3e-acd4-f3eb03d910ff.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twsocialshare&utm_campaign=organic

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