Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

Comments Page 46 of 54
1 … 45 46 47 … 54

  1. Bill Shorten and labor should simply stick to the disclosure time frame negotiated with Coremann and whack Turnbull each and every day coalition members refuse to comply with that negotiated date.

    Anyway, I am sure labor has this well under control and it is so handy labor has Tony Burke front and centre.

    Tony Burke as manager of opposition business was a inspired choice.

    Cheers.

  3. I found pollbludger in early 2014, when nervously googling to see how well the Tony Abbott-led government was doing in the polls (hoping he was behind), as, back then, I wasn’t following the polls and had no idea how the government was polling.

    Fast forward to now, and I can’t believe how the still-Coalition government, under Turnbull, is somehow even *more* shambolic than it was then.

  4. SkyNewsAust: #BREAKING: Labor and The Greens say they will turn up to work in Canberra on Monday despite Govt delaying parliament. pic.twitter.com/sLNzAmqa9O

    Doyley

    The media seems keen on the idea. Lots of free press coverage. Putting Labor’s agenda on the table.

    Who knows to show Turnbull up some renegade LNP members may even turn up to vote for the Banking RC.

  6. daretotread @ #1929 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 9:11 am

    Honestly Ratsak et al

    I really do not think you understand Greens at ALL. I suspect that you are blinded by class hatred. Just because the Greens are better educated and probably wealthier, you seem to equate them with the corporate elite.

    That is really just thick.

    There has ALWAYS been a “bohemian” intelligentsia class associated with radical movements. Think Voltaire, Tom Paine, Bernard Shaw, Betrand Russell, Henry Lawson. Sometimes they have working class roots but often from the upper classes (Wedgewoods).

    These type of people are intellectually and morally on the left. Despite higher levels of education they stick to their principles, which is why those the Labor left recruited because of anti Uranium stickers on their Datsuns or bicycles are now leading the charge against Adani and CSG (usually with the Greens). Their sons and daughters may have joined the corporate set but probably less than half, the others supporting the Greens. These people are NOT in corporate positions rather they are teachers, academics, doctors, lawyers, senior public servants or maybe running small IT or design businesses.

    Those of you who hail from the Labor right seem mostly to come from the “working class ” spectrum of the ALP. That is good and admirable, but it is not sensible if at the same time you disparage the educated wing and drive them away. After a time your only allies will be One Nation.

    More gratuitously offensive twaddle.

  7. “The Government decides the sitting agenda, it was only last week that it tabled the dates for next year.”

    The Parliament does that, and yes a normal competent Government has control of the floor of the House of Representatives, and so it can use that part of the Parliament.

    This ‘Government’ probably doesn’t have the numbers on the floor of Parliament and if you exclude frauds who were at all times ineligible, this ‘Government’ probably NEVER had a legitimate majority on the floor of the Parliament.

    But you seem to be confusing ‘Government’, including the current illegitimate one, and Parliament or suggesting that the Parliament isn’t at all important (spoiler it is the core of our democratic government). I can’t understand that at all, I hope I have misunderstood you, this is really very basic stuff.

  9. jamesmassola: Chief government whip Nola Marino emailed MPs & staff to let them know parliament cancelled just after 11am – AFTER Pyne’s surprise media release pic.twitter.com/5PhiDkzUJq


  12. guytaur,

    Yes, the MSM salivate at the possibility of ” chaos ” and ” disfunction ” and all the shiny baubles attached.

    Perception is reality and Turnbull and co still fail to realise that.

    I await with anticipation the next step from labor.

    Cheers.

  13. Invariably in previous Australian political history, the Government controlled the House of Representatives.

    That it may not do so next week is the key to understanding the situation. If the Parliament wanted the Leader of Government business in the house to have the power that is what the Standing Rules would say.

    So the first time in history the power has been used to meet later than the Parliament agreed (8 times the Parliament has come back early) but no definitely we should all accept the PM’s complete and total right to disregard the Constitution and now the Parliament for political convenience.

  16. An alternate take on Turnbull delaying parliament from Malcolm Farr in News ltd today:

    And the Prime Minister’s reply, revealed today, was to postpone the restart the House of Representatives to December 4 rather than the scheduled November 27, and to keep it there until the SSM bill is dealt with.

    This is aimed at overcoming delaying tactics by right wingers in the Senate hoping to run down the clock on 2017 sittings and prevent the law change being legislated this year, as the Prime Minister has promised.

    He is taking a stand, a necessary one. That is a measure of the trouble he is in from his Coalition right.

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/gay-marriage/pm-hit-by-rightwing-mps-angered-by-ssm-result-and-ready-to-punish-him/news-story/d92d394540e64f07cb60265e1563e39a

  17. “An alternate take on Turnbull delaying parliament from Malcolm Farr in News ltd”

    I have been listening to Malcolm’s and Denis’ podcast and yeah alternative ‘takes’ is what they do.

  19. Confessions,

    Thanks for that Malcolm Farr interpretation.

    Sadly no amount of covering for Turnbull will help. He may be ” taking a stand ” but he is only doing it because he is weak. It is a sign of weakness not a sign of a PM with any backbone.

    Perception is reality.

    Cheers.

  22. doyley:

    I can accept that the rightwing reactionaries in the coalition are throwing tantrums and will do whatever they can to delay marriage equality being legislated.

    But I do think it’s a stretch to claim that Turnbull has somehow engineered this latest move to outmaneuver them. He’s trying to avoid the HoR while down two members.

  24. WeWantPaul @ #2256 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 10:58 am

    “The Government decides the sitting agenda, it was only last week that it tabled the dates for next year.”
    The Parliament does that, and yes a normal competent Government has control of the floor of the House of Representatives, and so it can use the Parliament.
    This ‘Government’ probably doesn’t have the numbers of the floor of Parliament and if you exclude frauds who were at all times ineligible, this ‘Government’ probably NEVER had a legitimate majority on the floor of the Parliament.

    But you seem to be confusing ‘Government’, including the current illegitimate one, and Parliament or suggesting that the Parliament isn’t at all important (spoiler it is the core of our democratic government). I can’t understand that at all, I hope I have misunderstood you, this is really very basic stuff.

    I think you are the one that is confused, the situation as it stands Turnbull has the numbers and hence the confidence of the Parliament to be and lead the Government.

    All your talk of illegitimacy makes as much sense as when Abbott used it against the Gillard Government.

    Your argument seems to be based around what might happen in the future and saying that the Speaker should behave differently because of a possibility.

    The Parliament doesn’t work like that.

    Yes, the situation may change and even the Government may change but that is all determined by the reality of what happens on the floor of the House of Reps not possibility.

  25. PaulineHansonOz: I would like to see a Royal Commission into the banks called before Christmas. It looks like we have the numbers in Parliament so now is the time to make it happen. It would have One Nation’s full support. -PH #auspol

  26. William in today’s Crikey re the weekend’s by-election:

    With the benefit of hindsight, it now seems clear that Labor’s declining strength had been concealed by the popularity of former member Fiona Richardson, whose death in August precipitated the byelection.

    This has been underscored by demographic trends evident throughout the band of suburbs around central Sydney and Melbourne, where immigrant populations that had sustained Labor against the mounting Greens challenge have increasingly been priced out of the market.

  27. peterjhinton: If you want some idea of what the House of Reps will look like without Libs/Nats next week, I refer you to this photo of @JuliaGillard introducing the #NDIS legislation #auspol pic.twitter.com/WmQIO3HOUX

  29. guytaur says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 3:25 pm
    ratsak

    When Uhlman is questioning the legitimacy of the government its all but over red rover.

    Uhlmann has been much improved since he left the ABC. So far the change has been so apparent that it gives weight to those who question the culture of the ABC newsroom.

    It is true that during this period it has been hard to find a kind word for the government, but is also true that the L-NP have been beating-up on, and “influencing” the ABC newsroom for so long that it’s difficult to imagine it has no effect.

  31. Gosh Turnbull and his advisers show no political judgement – why you would think you could “logically” defer the House sitting because the Senate will still be debating the ME Bill – shows desperation and stupidity. They were clutching at straws that the ME Bill is a plus for them and that by saying we will sit until it is passed- this would give them the political cover for deferring all the other dangers of Banking and penalty rates discussion!!

  34. That’s right, BB. It’s okay for dtt to slur Labor supporters here, it’s not OK for us to fight back.

    That sounds a bit whiney Z.

    A bit like Cory Bernardi claiming on Sky, in the Australian and in the Daily Telegraph that the right-wing of politics is a persecuted minority.

    If there’s any place on Earth where there is no shortage of Labor supporters it’s here.

    As my new friend, Bemused says,”Lighten up”.

    And so,Bemused… how’d it go? All clear in the plumbing department?

  35. Question @ #2278 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 11:37 am

    guytaur says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 3:25 pm
    ratsak

    When Uhlman is questioning the legitimacy of the government its all but over red rover.

    Uhlmann has been much improved since he left the ABC. So far the change has been so apparent that it gives weight to those who question the culture of the ABC newsroom.

    It is true that during this period it has been hard to find a kind word for the government, but is also true that the L-NP have been beating-up on, and “influencing” the ABC newsroom for so long that it’s difficult to imagine it has no effect.

    Also Energy has largely been off the table which is one of the main issues that ruffled so many feathers.

  37. vanOnselenP: I assume she’s consistent in her religious beliefs and won’t wax anyone who fornicates (that uncommon practice of sex outside of wedlock) or any divorcees? A thriving business…. twitter.com/joshgnosis/sta…
    joshgnosis: The first case of religious freedom in Australia post the plebiscite is apparently a deeply catholic beautician not wanting to wax some gay balls. pic.twitter.com/KxPP8WZRXg

    https://twitter.com/joshgnosis/status/932453644590489600

  38. Just when I was getting sceptical about Malgabe Trundle managing to outdo himself week by week, he does this, and it’s only Monday.
    @ratsak: Imagination indeed.

  40. Ratsak, that missive from Nola the whip (is she eligible to sit in Parliament anyway, being an Italian Citizen by marriage, and probably through her Italian parents as well?) was sent to all MPS and Parliamentary staff.

    It would be surprising if he and all the CPG did not receive a copy of it, most likely from an opposition MP or a staffer..

  41. guytaur @ #2095 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 11:09 am

    simonahac: “but drownings!”

    twitter.com/nytimesworld/s…nytimesworld: Veteran UN officials say they have never seen a wealthy democracy go to such extremes to punish asylum seekers. nyti.ms/2jBk7YV pic.twitter.com/4Mwmmb10AV
    https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/931928515829731328
    https://twitter.com/simonahac/status/932226332565544960

    Clearly someone needs to go explain to them that Australia has to make a deliberate effort to torture these people for the deterrent effect it creates, because if we don’t maybe some of them will drown at sea in accidents entirely of their own making and it will be entirely Australia’s fault for not torturing people hard enough.

    Perhaps they could use a metaphor. Like, you know how if someone breaks into your house to seek shelter from a particularly nasty storm and they trip on your front porch and crack their skull open when they fall, it’s all on you because you didn’t have a “Tresspassers will be shot” sign posted. But if you post that “Tresspassers will be shot” sign and someone breaks into your house to seek shelter from a particularly nasty storm then it’s fine if you shoot them and not at all your fault if they hurt themselves trying to get in because hey, they were warned not to come in.

    Australia’s refugee policy works exactly like that, and is entirely rational, sane, and humane. Those uppity UN officials need to understand that Australia won’t be responsible for third-party accidents at sea. We’ll do the first-party torture and murder of however many refugees it takes to stop third-party accidents from harming refugees.

  42. Uhlmann is ‘fun’ today.

    Mr “I’ve got the good oil” so “put up right now or you’re rooted” and “I’ll piss Marmalade Jam on you if you don’t say what I want” claims he’s been caught in ‘Transit” so he’s saying ‘this’ but “I might be wrong because I have an incomplete picture”.

    Put yourself to the sword, Turkey, right now.

  43. Confessions @ #2286 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 2:53 pm

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I feel like there’s a second half to that story that wasn’t posted?

    Although Belinda wasn’t asked to “endorse” anyone’s wedding. She was asked to remove someone’s body hair, because body hair removal is a commercial service that she chooses to offer. Whether the person whose hair is being removed has anything to do with a gay wedding is entirely irrelevant.

  44. Zoomster
    In what way am i slurring anyone.

    If you live in the West of Sydney and you have working class roots then good on you. It is not a slur in any way.

    What i am saying (comprehension lesson!!!) is that many here on PB when they rant against Greens reveal a lack of understanding of who they are and a high degree of class hatred. Who was it ranting about swinging to the Tories with their rich daddy’s investment etc.

    If the cap fits Zoomster wear it . If not consider what i am saying and the post of some others here and make a sensible observation.

    In fact when I wrote it I was not thinking of you at all.

  47. AR:

    Indeed. I was wondering if this wasn’t some kind of set-up so Belinda whoever-she-is could rant on about SSM and her supposed jesus freedoms.

Comments Page 46 of 54
1 … 45 46 47 … 54

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *