Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

  1. What a fantastic initiative to help shoppers with Autism:

    To help shoppers who find the heightened sensory environment of a supermarket – the constant music, beeping scanners, bright lights – to be challenging, a low-sensory shopping experience designed to be easy on the eyes and ears will be offered from Tuesday.

    For an hour each week, Coles will dim store lighting by 50 per cent, switch the radio off and reduce volumes of their registers and scanners to the lowest level.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/shopping-made-easier-for-people-with-autism-as-coles-introduces-quiet-hour-20171120-gzpbzx.html

  2. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 11:34 pm
    What a fantastic initiative to help shoppers with Autism:

    To help shoppers who find the heightened sensory environment of a supermarket – the constant music, beeping scanners, bright lights – to be challenging, a low-sensory shopping experience designed to be easy on the eyes and ears will be offered from Tuesday.

    For an hour each week, Coles will dim store lighting by 50 per cent, switch the radio off and reduce volumes of their registers and scanners to the lowest level.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/shopping-made-easier-for-people-with-autism-as-coles-introduces-quiet-hour-20171120-gzpbzx.html
    *************************************
    Why can’t they do it all the time?

  3. jenauthor

    Her so passion and advocacy in some areas is commendable, but her lack of knowledge is appalling in someone who had the power to say yes or no to important legislation.

    Well, Lambie, in her farewell to the Senate speech, did say she she had to leave because she found out she was illegible.

    lol

  4. C@tmomma @ 11.34

    Turning down the volume of the scanners will slow things down greatly at the self-service checkouts as people and machines get confused about what has and hasn’t been properly scanned. I wouldn’t be surprised if that element of the package gets dropped rather quickly.

  5. Jacqui Lambie was clearly out of her depth in politics, as are several others there. While on the one hand it’s scary we have people of average-at-best intelligence voting on legislation, on the plus side at least they’re not as slick when it comes to lying as some of the more polished pollies are.

  6. kezza2:

    Well, Lambie, in her farewell to the Senate speech, did say she she had to leave because she found out she was illegible.

    I noticed that, too. Like Hanson, she can barely speak.

  7. I must say I find it sickening that every time I click on the ABC website I’m confronted with photos of Charles Manson.

    The 2 lead articles are still about him. 🙁

  8. I must say I find it sickening that every time I click on the ABC website I’m confronted with photos of Charles Manson.

    The 2 lead articles are still about him.

    I tuned in to the 6pm news on ABC24 and the Zimbabwe situation filled the first 8 minutes, after which the delayed week of parliament sitting was finally mentioned. Bizarre how it wasn’t the lead story.

  9. Pedant @ #2650 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 11:43 pm

    C@tmomma @ 11.34

    Turning down the volume of the scanners will slow things down greatly at the self-service checkouts as people and machines get confused about what has and hasn’t been properly scanned. I wouldn’t be surprised if that element of the package gets dropped rather quickly.

    I would imagine the people with Autism would be with their Carers who would do the scanning and keep an eye on things. I, myself, turn down the volume on the self-serve checkout and go by the red and green lights. 🙂

  10. Article on Morrison’s appearance on 7:30 tonight.

    In an interview on ABC’s 7.30, Morrison said same-sex marriage was a “done deal” and a “finished debate” but parliament now needed to legislate a bill for 100% of Australians, not just the 61.6% who voted for marriage equality.

    I’m sorry Scott but I, like the majority of people who cast their ballot for ME were not asking for ourselves but for others to be treated equally.

    The issue that was decided was to allow access for the LGBTI community to the civil institution of marriage.

    Nothing more, nothing less.

    Oh sh!t, I don’t get a prize!!!

    And neither do the “NO” voters who are not LGBTI.

    Boo fucking hoo!!!!

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/20/scott-morrison-at-least-as-many-want-religious-freedom-as-marriage-equality

  11. How should Labor respond to tax cuts?

    1. Point out the Coalition’s record of being economical with the truth

    2. Ask “Where’s the money coming from?” Not from the big end of town, that’s for sure. Expect a horror post election budget. Remind voters of the 2014 Budget. List what they are likely to do: slash services, hike charges, massively increase tertiary fees, more privatisation, wind back pensions, Medicare and the PBS, attack the unemployed and pensioners…

    3. Offer modest cuts, matching or besting the Government at lower and middle (i.e. near median) incomes, funded by winding back negative gearing, the capital gains tax rebate, tax shelters, huge rorts like transfer pricing, tax superannuation pensions over $50k p.a, smaller rorts like novated leases – the list is endless.

    4. “This reckless spending has to stop”. Push Labor as responsible economic managers

    5. Post election, do to private education and private health what the Government wants to do and to the extent they’ve been allowed have been doing to Medicare, unemployment benefits, disability pensions and the ABC. Shift funds saved into the public systems. That will improve health outcomes, education outcomes and Budget outcomes.

  12. The LNP really are out of date and out of touch. Unless they have a *major* clean-out after being smashed at an election, and/or the ALP are equally as shambolic in government (which would be a near-impossible feat), I can’t see them being in government again any time in the near future. Old Media will become increasingly irrelevant, too.

  13. Not to mention the Royal Commission into offshore banking and tax havens and specifically how that implicates Turnbull and his closest friends 🙂

  14. Regarding the Bolt thing, about a week ago a mainstream-media political commentator who I know told me they had spoken to a Coalition MP who was making very similar noises to those made in the Bolt article. I suspect it’s the same MP, whoever it is. The version I saw was also party non-specific. There was a hint that the MP might especially disapprove of Pyne but that really doesn’t narrow the field.

  15. Kevin Bonham @ #2668 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:34 pm

    Regarding the Bolt thing, about a week ago a mainstream-media political commentator who I know told me they had spoken to a Coalition MP who was making very similar noises to those made in the Bolt article. I suspect it’s the same MP, whoever it is. The version I saw was also party non-specific. There was a hint that the MP might especially disapprove of Pyne but that really doesn’t narrow the field.

    Is this related to the topic of the twitter like?

  16. Both Brandis and the Labor MP were quite woeful on the refugee question. Though Lambie was the worst on the panel by a wide margin on that one.

    The biggest mistake Labor made on the refugee topic was accepting blame for other people independently choosing to get on unseaworthy vessels and then killing themselves while trying to sail to Australia. Now they’re locked into supporting indefinite detention and torture because “omg drowning!”.

  17. Jenny Hocking was on ABC radio this morning. Trevor Chappell (not that one). Scathing of 4c last night. In particular the dredging over of the corruption allegations based on evidence from the laughingly name incorruptibles. It appears that 4c took the term literally when allegations were being made on the basis of illegal phone taps from a police force that was found to be the most corrupt at that time.
    The program itself focused on Murphy and I found out stuff about him I never knew. Very impressed with his contribution to dragging Australia into the 20th century.
    Back to 10 minutes to edit.

  18. Tax cut?
    The liberals have doubled the countries debt in two terms; when the world economy is booming; no GFC to manage; all they had to do was competently manage Government in normal economic times. Past Liberal governments could do it; but is would seem the Liberals have lost even that basic skill. The budget is not in surplus and they are offering tax cuts?

    Under no circumstance should Labor offer any of this bullshit. It will only destroy their credabilaty.

    To underline the historic nature of this nonsense; Windging Wendy should be resurrected. For those too young link to the Ads. Hawk won the election.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VX5qnUR1UVg

  19. Morning all. I agree with fred – Turnbull is desperate and his tax cuts prove it. How does an unpopular PM win re-election if he has to go to the polls? He buys his way back into office.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-flags-tax-cuts-as-imf-talks-of-a-year-of-steady-interest-rates-20171120-gzp69y.html

    Yet the promise is a lie. Large scale tax cuts are completely unaffordable without large scale reduction to corporate tax evasion. There is no surplus to spend. Our budget is sinking faster than it was in the GFC. How could a minority government with a hostile Senate possibly pass all the service cuts needed to pay for tax cuts? The tax cuts are as real as Joe Hockey’s surplus.

    In fact, if tax cuts were introduced with the current state of the books, all it would do is raise interest rates and drop the dollar. Then we would never repay our debt.

    There are so many questions I would like to ask about this crazy plan, but parliament is not sitting so I cannot get any answers.

  20. Coorey is on the case with Turnbull ‘cancelling’ parliament, focusing on the real victims….

    “The decision effectively raises the white flag on the passage of any more legislation this year, including the legislation of the next round of company tax cuts.”

    From
    Bank inquiry gathers steam as Malcolm Turnbull scraps parliament
    http://www.afr.com/news/bank-inquiry-gathers-steam-as-malcolm-turnbull-scraps-parliament-20171119-gzonpe?btis

    Big business, aka Lineral party donors won’t be happy.

    Also Turnbull gave a major ‘headland’ speech to business last night. Where the ‘tax cuts’ were announced

    It was written up yesterday as a ‘reset’.

  21. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    John Howard offered a fistful of dollars as his government was sinking beneath the waves. It didn’t work for him because the electorate had worked out that it was a desperate, last-ditch effort from a desperate PM. Then they turfed him out of his own seat!

    May the same happen to Malcolm Turnbull!

  22. H.R. McMaster confided Trump is an ‘idiot’ and ‘dope’ during private meeting with tech CEO: report

    According to a report by Buzzfeed, National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster ridiculed President Donald Trump during a private dinner with the CEO of Oracle.

    Four sources claim they overheard one of Trump’s most trusted advisers confide to CEO Safra Catz — who was under consideration for a job in the administration — that his boss was both an “idiot” and a dope,” adding that Trump has the smarts of a “kindergartner.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/h-r-mcmaster-confided-trump-is-an-idiot-and-dope-during-private-meeting-with-tech-ceo-report/

  23. Oh ffs. Reset reset reset. The media have been writing everything as a reset for Turnbull when he is a walking talking dumpster fire. There will be no reset because he cant manage.

  24. ‘His tentacles are everywhere’: CNN panel lays out damning case against Jared Kushner in Russia probe

    A CNN panel led by host John King on Monday laid out all the evidence that Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner is in deep trouble when it comes to the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

    “Jared Kushner is like an octopus in the sense that his tentacles seem to be everywhere,”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/his-tentacles-are-everywhere-cnn-panel-lays-out-damning-case-against-jared-kushner-in-russia-probe/

  25. “The biggest mistake Labor made on the refugee topic was accepting blame for other people independently choosing to get on unseaworthy vessels and then killing themselves while trying to sail to Australia.”

    ..a chillingly callous comment, imo..

  26. Freudian slip by Mark Kenny? 😉

    In July, Mr Abbott welcomed passage of his “Warringah” motion through the state Liberal convention calling it “a clear road ahead to one-member, one-vote pre-selections, a clear road ahead to a democratic political party which is controlled by its members not by lobbyists, not by factionists, not by strong pullers”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/he-is-now-irrelevant-does-tony-abbotts-defeat-on-marriage-mark-his-final-decline-in-canberra-20171120-gzot06.html

  27. ‘His tentacles are everywhere’: CNN panel lays out damning case against Jared Kushner in Russia probe

    Sorry phoenixRed, I thought that was another article about Weinstein.

    Also thanks for your US posts.

    One impact of Trump has been to ruin the plot line of every* thriller, military story set in the US (think Tom Clancy). Invariably in these a crisis escalates and the US President becomes involved. He (almost always a he), is presented as a sober, intelligent person who consults and makes a considered decision. Many of these stories are far fetched but now they have jumped the shark.

    * with one exception, the sci-fi film Iron Sky did have Sarah Palin as President, set in 2018

  28. Well, this is an interesting tidbit of information about the Banking Commission of Inquiry being touted by Barry O’Sullivan in exchange for Conservative carve outs of the SS Marriage Bill:

    Those two banks were joined by the Commonwealth Bank and NAB in officially supporting the Yes vote. They are clearly an equal opportunity oligopoly. Anyhow, to see that goodwill with 61 per cent of the population turn to ash in their mouths must feel more than a little confronting. But it wasn’t just the big banks but also regionals like Bank of Queensland who backed the Yes campaign. So too did large superannuation outfits like AustralianSuper and Hesta. They must now be wondering what they did to earn a commission of inquiry that will include industry super funds alongside the banks.

    Still, Turnbull looks determined to avoid the inquiry and will nix a week of Parliament to achieve it if necessary. It’s all starting to feel more like a stormcloud coloured No than rainbow tinted Yes.

    Bastards will not leave Industry Super Funds alone!

  29. Mr Newbie @ #2657 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 11:53 pm

    I must say I find it sickening that every time I click on the ABC website I’m confronted with photos of Charles Manson.

    The 2 lead articles are still about him.

    I tuned in to the 6pm news on ABC24 and the Zimbabwe situation filled the first 8 minutes, after which the delayed week of parliament sitting was finally mentioned. Bizarre how it wasn’t the lead story.

    It was the lead story on PM last night. And a very ‘tabloid’ report at that.

  30. C@tmomma @ #2679 Tuesday, November 21st, 2017 – 5:35 am

    Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    John Howard offered a fistful of dollars as his government was sinking beneath the waves. It didn’t work for him because the electorate had worked out that it was a desperate, last-ditch effort from a desperate PM. Then they turfed him out of his own seat!

    May the same happen to Malcolm Turnbull!

    Umm, it didn’t work the last time. Worked a treat for his other reelections. And it was countered by Rudd offering similar personal tax cuts.

  31. Doesn’t labor just say: yep, we agree with tax cuts for the battlers. That shows tax cuts for corporations, etc etc are even more unaffordable.

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