Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

  1. Bushfire:

    Very pleased to hear of Her Indoors’s win against the bureaucracy. I remember when it all started and you were commenting about how stressful things were then. I can’t imagine living through that for all this time, but I’m glad the good guys won in the end.

  2. Now would be a good time to make public in the electorate of Bennelong the Liberal Party’s intention to deceive with its dodgy proposed or actual website under Keneally’s name.

    And do so in English Korean Mandarin, Hindi and every other language common in Bennelong.

  3. Fulvio:

    Labor doesn’t need to touch the dodgy website. The Abbott/Turnbull record in govt has plenty of fodder to sustain a campaign for KK.

    And in any case, can Bennelong voters even be sure that Malcolm will be the PM next year when Abbott has been doing his level best to undermine him and return to the leadership?

    (What goes around, comes around!)

  4. The trouble with us is that we’re to forgiving of our enemies, Confessions.

    It’s time for us to seize every available opportunity, when we catch them out, to give them a good kicking.

  5. Cautious but pleased I’d say is the feeling around Sussex St.

    Long long ways to go, but at least it indicates the Eddie Obeid gambit hasn’t knocked Keneally out in the first round.

    Good publicity around the announcement seems to have her in with a shot. Now we just need some more weeks of Trumble trying to outstupid the Australian Cricket selectors to push her over the line.

  6. I experience times on here when multiple “Load now” button clicking produces zilch over a reasonable period of time but doing a browser refresh immediately afterwards produces numbers of posted comments.

    Are others experiencing this?

  7. CTar1 @ #11 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:54 pm

    I experience times on here when multiple “Load now” button clicking produces zilch over a reasonable period of time but doing a browser refresh immediately afterwards produces numbers of posted comments.

    Are others experiencing this?

    I think there may be an issue with C+ where it’s not able to fetch new comments until there’s at least one full page of comments (when ‘Recent Comments First’ is disabled).

    Tricky to debug, because threads typically don’t linger in that state for very long.

  8. CTar1 @ #608 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 6:23 pm

    Cambodia:

    BiDG – Some international reaction –

    PHNOM PENH (Reuters) – The United States stopped election support for Cambodia with a promise of more “concrete steps” and the European Union threatened vital trade preferences after the main opposition party to Prime Minister Hun Sen was banned.

    But then …

    But China voiced support for Cambodia’s government, standing behind the former Khmer Rouge commander who has become one of Beijing’s most important allies in Southeast Asia after more than three decades in power.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cambodia-politics/cambodia-faces-u-s-eu-action-after-banning-opposition-idUSKBN1DH033

    That’s the problem.

    With the relationship with China gaining strength the importance of western acceptance becomes less.

    With Chinese support it’s much easier for Hun Sen to say f@#k you.

    You’ll really know it’s gone full tilt when the Yuan replaces the US dollar as the local currency.

  9. a r

    Tks. I’d noticed to page change bit before and was on to that but I had one after this post

    Fulvio Sammut (AnonBlock)
    Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 10:46 pm
    Comment #9

    Closing/reopening the browser clears it.

  10. a r

    until there’s at least one full page of comments

    Didn’t read properly the first time. So the first page you are thinking ‘suspect’. Could be but I think it might also occur with subsequent page changes as well.

    I’ll mention again if I notice something that may help you diagnose and identify whatever it is. (I’m using Win10/Chrome if that is of any use).

  11. BiDG

    The United States stopped election support for Cambodia

    I thought this a bit p#ssweak … Hun Sen would be thinking the ‘election support’ money won’t be needed from now on anyway.

  12. My rule of thumb with seat polls is not to take them too seriously until there are two or three at least saying the same thing. That said I recall someone posting a graph recently showing relationship between overall 2pp polling and by-election swings suggesting that Bennelong could be close to a 50/50.

  13. ratsak @ #10 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:50 pm

    Cautious but pleased I’d say is the feeling around Sussex St.

    Long long ways to go, but at least it indicates the Eddie Obeid gambit hasn’t knocked Keneally out in the first round.

    Good publicity around the announcement seems to have her in with a shot. Now we just need some more weeks of Trumble trying to outstupid the Australian Cricket selectors to push her over the line.

    I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the next few weeks could not possibly be any worse for Trumble than the last few. I now present myself to my fellow Bludgers and the universe to be roundly humiliated for my failure of imagination.

    The danger points for the L/NP are:
    – 1st December: how many more dual citizens are going to come out of the woodwork;
    – 2nd December: New England by-election;
    – Marriage equality vote in Parliament;
    – Michaelia Cash scandal: there are several potential catastrophes’s for the price of one here:
    It is a most opportune time for the AFP, who have to date never been able to find any evidence of
    criminal wrongdoing involving a L/NP politician or their staff member to all of a sudden
    remember they have a public duty to be non-partisan and lay criminal charges in this matter;

    The slightly less catastrophic outcome is for the various political processes to play out and find
    evidence of wrongdoing that is terminal for Ms Cash, and;

    Legal action intiated by the AWU uncovers something resulting in either of the above two
    outcomes.
    – Bennelong by-election, and;
    – The traditional December killing season.

    Surely they could not all go wrong for Brian Trumble. The universe could not be that good to Labor and Bill Shorten 😀

    It’s certainly an exciting time to be alive.

  14. CTar1 @ #19 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:15 pm

    BiDG

    The United States stopped election support for Cambodia

    I thought this a bit p#ssweak … Hun Sen would be thinking the ‘election support’ money won’t be needed from now on anyway.

    The first move should be to freeze all Government, senior officials and senior military officer’s international bank accounts.

    That’s one weapon the west still holds and it will hurt.

    The withdrawal of election funding is significant as it says the up coming election is no longer a credible exercise and hence anyone elected by it has no real democratic credibility.

  15. Seat x seat polling is hard to carry out with an MOE that is less than the swing usually required for a seat to change hands. The reason for this is it is very difficult to get a properly randomised sample from a population of just 100,000.

    I would really like to see some feedback from the Labor campaign, especially from those who campaign in person to “persuadable” voters. This is where the election can be won. I imagine the issues that will play in these cohorts will be health/Medicare, the quality of public services, high energy costs, weak or even negative household income growth and low confidence in government generally.

    Bearing these factors in mind, a swing of 10% or so against an unpopular and incompetent incumbent government is far from being out of the question. Keneally certainly has a lot to commend her as a candidate and has to be a good chance. If I were Alexander, I would be wondering what I could do to counter Labor’s coming field efforts.

  16. Grimace, the Reactionary Branches can campaign for Labor simply by being themselves in the coming few weeks. Every time they threaten the authority of Turnbull and his cabinet they will shift votes to Keneally. They may reason that the best thing that could happen for them would be for the Liberal to lose Bennelong.

  17. Of course, if Dec 1 produces a swag of LNP members and senators with dubious credentials, the voters of Bennelong will have every reason to anticipate the demise of the current government. If they sense the LNP are on the way out, the swing to Labor will become unstoppable, just as it was in Bennelong itself 2007.

  18. briefly

    If I were Alexander, I would be wondering what I could do to counter Labor’s coming field efforts.

    I’m wondering how enthusiastic Alexander is about being re-elected at all. I suspect he may well have been ready to go prior to the ‘citizenship fiasco’ happening and putting him in the position of feeling he should ‘go again’ rather than retire as ‘invalid’.

  19. I think the significance of a poll like this is it has the potential to throw the Libs upside down.

    Their initial mindset and planning would have been to minimise the leakage of votes now they have also try and convince people to come back.

    I can see their arse cheeks quivering in fear and panic as I type! 🙂

  20. CTar1 @ #26 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:43 pm

    briefly

    If I were Alexander, I would be wondering what I could do to counter Labor’s coming field efforts.

    I’m wondering how enthusiastic Alexander is about being re-elected at all. I suspect he may well have been ready to go prior to the ‘citizenship fiasco’ happening and putting him in the position of feeling he should ‘go again’ rather than retire as ‘invalid’.

    Also I doubt he will have much of say in how the campaign is run.

    This is all about the Government from a Lib perspective and doubt you’ll see too many photos without someone senior by his side.

  21. CTar1 says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 11:43 pm
    briefly

    If I were Alexander, I would be wondering what I could do to counter Labor’s coming field efforts.

    I’m wondering how enthusiastic Alexander is about being re-elected at all. I suspect he may well have been ready to go prior to the ‘citizenship fiasco’ happening and putting him in the position of feeling he should ‘go again’ rather than retire as ‘invalid’.

    There can be very little joy in being a Lib MP these days. They are heading for oblivion. I don’t know enough about Alexander to know whether he has the fight in him to campaign and win. I’ve noticed him a in couple of pics with Bishop. She’s usually despatched to help marshal the energies and the spirits of the bumbling and bemused backbencher.

  22. Barney in Go Dau says:

    Also I doubt he will have much of say in how the campaign is run.

    This is all about the Government from a Lib perspective and doubt you’ll see too many photos without someone senior by his side.

    This is probably true for nearly all campaigns. Candidates are often little more stage props. Does he have the presence to carry it off? I dunno. Keneally does….

  23. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/17/queensland-lnp-could-form-government-with-one-nation

    This will not help the Liberals in Bennelong or anywhere else!

    The LNP have now begun to campaign for ON. Extraordinary. They are encouraging their own supporters to vote against them.

    There is only one way to oppose the stupidities, the lies and the bigotries of ON and that is to vote Labor. No doubt, the voters of Queensland will respond to this just as voters in WA responded – by thrashing Liberals wherever they were to be found.

  24. The LNP are promoting themselves as a branch of ON.

    Let’s hope the voters of Bennelong reward them in a suitable fashion…by supporting Keneally in very large numbers!

  25. a r,
    Seem to be working okay for me. You should have ‘Unblock’ controls available beneath the pagination controls.

    Well, there’s the nub of the problem. I just checked back on the previous thread and I had no pagination! All comments went back to comment #1. No pages. C+ is still red though.

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