Queensland election: Newspoll marginal seat polling

Numerous new polls, most notably Newspoll marginal seat results that confirm a complicated overall picture.

The Australian has six marginal seat polls from Newspoll, with samples ranging from 504 to 693, producing a mixed bag for all concerned. In descending order of good news for the government:

Mansfield (notional Labor 0.8%): Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead in the seat held by Shadow Attorney-General Ian Walker, which is one of a number of seats they will seemingly need to gain from the LNP in south-eastern Queensland to balance losses elsewhere. Labor leads 40% to 37% on the primary vote, with One Nation on 16% and the Greens on 7%. Oddly, this seat turned up one of the most favourable results on a supplemetary question conerning the Adani coal mine, which was supported by 50% and opposed by 34%.

Whitsunday (LNP 0.6%): A lineball result in 2015 that is projected to be so again this time, with everything depending on the flow of preferences from a third-placed One Nation on 19%. Labor is on 32%, down about four points since 2015, while the LNP is down nearly eleven to 31%, with the Greens steady on 7%. Lineball too on Adani, with 42% supportive and 39% opposed.

Gaven (LNP 2.8%): Another margin-of-error result from an LNP-held marginal seat, with the LNP credited with a lead of 51-49 from primary votes of LNP 50%, Labor 43% and Greens 7%. Adani records 36% support, 38% opposition.

Ipswich West (Labor 9.1%): One Nation gouge the LNP to record 29% of the primary vote, with the LNP’s 17% less than half of what they recorded in 2015. But with Labor’s 45% supplemented by 9% for the Greens, Labor records a comfortable 57-43 lead over One Nation on two-party preferred. Adani is supported by 37%, opposed by 34%.

Bundaberg (Labor 0.5%): The poll finds Labor set to lose Bundaberg to the LNP, the margin in this case being 53-47. The LNP leads 37% to 33% on the primary vote, with preferences from the 21% One Nation vote set to decide the result. This may be a seat where One Nation’s direction of preferences against incumbents may tell against Labor. The Adani question finds 33% supportive, 42% opposed.

Thuringowa (Labor 6.6%): One Nation appears set to poach this Townsville suburbs seat from Labor, skipping ahead of the LNP by 28% to 21% on the primary vote. With Labor’s primary vote at an anaemic 29%, the poll finds One Nation set to mow them down on LNP preferences and win by 54-46. This comes a week after Galaxy found the other Townsville suburbs seat, Mundingburra, flipping from Labor to LNP by a 52-48 margin. Perhaps relatedly, the poll finds emphatic support for Adani, with 52% for and 26% against.

Further poll news:

• The Australia Institute has a statewide ReachTEL poll of 2181 respondents conducted on Monday. True to ReachTEL form, the poll credits the LNP with a 52-48 lead, which more or less inverts what other pollsters are recording. Including a forced response question for the undecided, primary votes are Labor 34.0%, LNP 32.3%, One Nation 17.9%, Greens 8.3% and Katter’s Australian Party, which respondent-allocated One Nation preferences evidently tipping strongly to the LNP. The poll also finds 56.1% support the Premier’s plan to veto a government loan for Adani’s rail line, with 29.7% opposed, and 61.3% saying Tim Nicholls should follow suit, with only 21.3% saying he should promise to pursue the loan, and 6.5% saying he should do neither.

• As reported by Fairfax, a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! finds Shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson struggling to hold the new seat of Maiwar, the tougher nut he has been left to crack after his existing seat of Indooroopilly was abolished in the redistribution. After exclusion of the undecided, primary votes are LNP 46.3%, Labor 30.9% and Greens 19.6%, with the latter’s preferences to Labor securing a dead heat on two-party preferred.

• The Courier-Mail yesterday had results on Adani from a Galaxy poll of “more than 1000 voters from across Queensland”, which is a bit surprising given the lack of voting intention numbers to emerge from the exercise. The poll finds 42% saying Labor’s handling of the issue has made them less likely to vote Labor, for one reason or another, with only 14% for more likely, and 37% for no influence. Forty-seven per cent say it has made them less likely to trust Annastacia Palaszczuk, compared with 15% for more likely and 31% for no influence. Fifty-five per cent opposed the rail line loan proposal, with only 28% in favour.

Other news:

• The Australian has an instructive graphic on the leaders’ movements, which shows Annastacia Palaszczuk has spent over half the campaign north of Gympie, whereas Tim Nicholls has spent nearly three-quarters of his further south. Both leaders have spent more time defending their existing seats over the past week than pursuing seats held by their opponents.

• The 100-strong audience of undecided voters at the Sky News’ three-way leaders forum on Thursday night called an emphatic win for Annastacia Palaszczuk, with 60 saying they would vote for her afterwards compared with 12 for Tim Nicholls and 10 for Steve Dickson, with 18 remaining undecided. Nicholls did particularly badly over his refusal to confirm directly that the LNP might form government with the support of One Nation, presumably inspiring yesterday’s change of tack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

29 comments on “Queensland election: Newspoll marginal seat polling”

  1. If the LNP form a govt with ON in Qld, Labor will win the next federal election by the length of the straight, pulling away. Malcolm won’t even bother to turn up.

  2. Thuringowa and Bundaberg aren’t particularly surprising, but Maiwar and Gaven are. The ALP could potentially mitigate its losses.

    It’ll be an interesting election night, that’s for certain.

  3. If polling is correct there is a swing to. Labor in parts of Brisbane and the gold. Coast…..where the onp/lnp deal is poison….. labor could win up to have a dozen seats there…..if so and labor mps retain the bulk of their rural and provincial seats then very close

  4. Seth

    Labor has an exceptionally strong candidate in Maiwar. Perfect match for the electorate. Young, very pretty lawyer with exceptionally good looking Anesthetist hubby and two picture perfect children.

    Very green so will easily get Green preferences despite Adani. Sufficiently middle class to appeal to the soft Liberal voters who will not like the connection with One Nation.

    Intelligent and personable.

  5. Willam this is a question for you really.

    Since Reachtel started adding its pattern of forcing a choice of charity to support, I wonder if less people respond to the poll and possibly skew the results. It is certainly very irritating

  6. The Curious Snail is already preparing its readers to blame Nicholls when the LNP lose, so I suspect there is a fair bit of other intelligence available to those in the know.

    The point about Mansfield and Gaven and Maiwar is that there are a number of other SE Qld seats in a similar basket – quite a few could fall to Labor.

  7. In addition to the above – Nicholls has been almost manic in traversing the South East and some of the policies he has been spruiking almost remind me of the wild thrashing about that Rudd did in the final days of the 2013 cmapaign.

  8. Checking in from NorthQ.

    As I predicted the 2 Townsville seats will flip from the incumbent . 100% a case of voting current members out rather than voting someone else in, any other analysis is incorrect.

    NorthQ has stagnated and the economy has shrunk since Newman. Newman sacked ~5000 public servants from NorthQ, which results in ~5% rise in unemployment; NorthQ had 10% of total public servants but coped a whopping 25% of the “sackings”. Labor has done nothing to reinvigorate the economy locally, and has rubbed salt into the wound by increasing the size of the public service in Brisbane reducing further front line services.

    Now at election time a visit or two isn’t going to be enough for Labor to hold onto the local 2 seats.

  9. Yes Gaven glass house Bonney Chats worth everton and another 3,to 4 fall in the same category……labor could lose Bundaberg and 1 to 2,Townsville seats

  10. NorthQ has it in a nutshell. If you live in North Qld who do you vote for? The party that stripped jobs from the region or the party that did nothing about it? Any wonder people vote Katter?

  11. There is a substantial amount of investment going into renewable energy projects in North Queensland with a substantial queue of projects- surprised that the ALP is not making more noise about it –

  12. Mick quinlivan – yes Labor are relying on doing better in Brisbane and the southeast because of the LNP’s deal to preference ON. It may be enough to get Labor over the line.

    NorthQ – I would vote for Katter ahead of ON any day. For one thing – I wrote to him many yars ago and he personally wrote back.

  13. Two seats in Townsville swapping over to LNP/ One Nation from ALP after the Newman Government killed off 5000 jobs. Do these people expect any more from LNP/ON if they get elected? One has to rememebr that the ALP was a minority government and anything they tried to do was kyboshed by the Opposition. Surely, they must be given a go to govern in their own right.
    All I can say is that Townsville people have a very short memory. Back in July, in Townsville, the Premier gave a speech
    Surely one would think that in all fairness she should be given an opportunity to carry out the statements she made then.

  14. Okay, why are people saying Maiwar is surprising ? All the redistricting info I saw suggested it was on a tight theoretical LNP seat margin now, which means it changing hands isn’t really unexpected.

  15. Elaug

    Labor needs a very big swing to get Maiwar and then there is also the green vote. What seems possibly to have happened is that following the backflip on Adani, Ally may have got the Green vote. This is highly possible as she is really the ideal “green” candidate and indeed when she first joined the ALP team she did so in the wake of a very “Green” ALP candidate.

    I think if there are wavering green/ALP voters Ally will get them along with wavering Lib/ALP/Green. Those Liberals who do not like Tim Nicholls might well vote for Ally.

    I will keep my fingers crossed for her.

  16. I know its a different State but does the Northcote result have any implications for inner Brisbane seats? This election was shaping up as Labor vs LNP with PHON as a potential king/queenmaker in a minority government.

    However on recent polling is it now a question of a Labor/Greens coalition vs a LNP/PHON coalition? It is hard to see a single party government either way.

  17. I don’t think it changes much, Queensland has always been tough for the Greens. Maybe they gain South Brisbane, but only make some headway in seats like Maiwar and McConnel.

    A minority Labor/Greens government seems extremely unlikely.

  18. With almost no basis in polling (because there hasn’t been much), I would not be surprised to see the Greens do quite well. They could conceivably win 2 or 3 Brisbane seats but I also wouldn’t be surprised if their preferences helped elect Labor members elsewhere, such as the Gold and Sunshine Coast and North Queensland.

    Apart from their usual constituency, I can see a lot of soft Liberals attracted to them because the LNP is so uninspiring and because of the Adani issue.

  19. If the Greens “only” won 2 or 3 seats surely, given how close everyone says this is, that could be enough to form part of a minority Labor government. What else can Labor do? If they ever contemplated negotiating with PHON it would be federal political suicide.

  20. Both parties had their launches today. Mr Harbourside Mansion certainly pulled no punches, not that anyone still listens at this point.

    Jeff Horn and Annastacia were quite eloquent and dignified, with a more low key launch.

  21. Kevin Bonham,

    Hi, I have just had a look at your write up through the link you inserted above.

    I note that you have the ALP starting with 49 instead of 48 seats. Maybe you have counted Pumicestone as an ALP seat, although it is now a notional LNP seat? I think the starting point should be ALP 48, LNP 43, Others 2.

    Bye the bye we pretty much agree on six seas for ONP/KAP, although I have included Thuringowa instead of Mirani with Hinchinbrook, Callide and Lockyer as probable ONP gains. I would have Mirani amongst other possible ONP seats.

    That predictor by Mr Jago is certainly very interesting, but I believe that it leads to predictions too favourable to the ALP in NQ and FNQ seats such as Barron River, Burdekin, Cairns, Mulgrave, Mundingburra, Thuringowa, and Townsville.

    I believe that preference distributions from ONP will be far more favourable to the LNP than the estimator is using, especially in ALP held seats in NQ and FNQ.

  22. Areas appears labor Trouble in Townsville loss of possible 2 seats….Bundaberg difficult…..Burkedein is where the Adani mine is even though it notionable labor…prob not alp.of Keppel,Mirani. And Marlborough expect labor to retain all 3…….all others expect to retain in rural provincial areas…….possible gains..Whitsunday…….glass house Gaven..Bonney…..seats round the old Albert.. . .possible Brisbane up to 3,% lnp think there are 3,to 4 of these….Pumice stone……prob non win …….Towoomba nth possible win. .from alp view. Point possible slight seat gain up to about 5

  23. Why on earth does anyone refer to One Nation as “King maker”
    If One Nation obtain balance of power, there is no way on earth they would ever support a Labor minority government.
    Labor has said they would go into opposition in such an outcome.

  24. Yeah, off my numbers only South Brisbane is really in play, and even then I wouldn’t bet on a Greens win, I think the swing will fall short. The Northcote by-election may help since having the appearance of being able to win seems to get the Greens a decent swing all by itself relative to previous elections but I still think it will fall short.

    McConnel is similar but an even longer bow, the numbers are there looking at Federal Senate votes its just that persuading people you can win and thus are worth voting for is hard, especially in Queensland where you can’t point to upper house representation as evidence.

    The Greens definitely have the ground game out in force, with door knocks and having the candidates at prepolls and out and about. They’ve been making use of Larissa Waters as well.

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