The Australian has six marginal seat polls from Newspoll, with samples ranging from 504 to 693, producing a mixed bag for all concerned. In descending order of good news for the government:
Mansfield (notional Labor 0.8%): Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead in the seat held by Shadow Attorney-General Ian Walker, which is one of a number of seats they will seemingly need to gain from the LNP in south-eastern Queensland to balance losses elsewhere. Labor leads 40% to 37% on the primary vote, with One Nation on 16% and the Greens on 7%. Oddly, this seat turned up one of the most favourable results on a supplemetary question conerning the Adani coal mine, which was supported by 50% and opposed by 34%.
Whitsunday (LNP 0.6%): A lineball result in 2015 that is projected to be so again this time, with everything depending on the flow of preferences from a third-placed One Nation on 19%. Labor is on 32%, down about four points since 2015, while the LNP is down nearly eleven to 31%, with the Greens steady on 7%. Lineball too on Adani, with 42% supportive and 39% opposed.
Gaven (LNP 2.8%): Another margin-of-error result from an LNP-held marginal seat, with the LNP credited with a lead of 51-49 from primary votes of LNP 50%, Labor 43% and Greens 7%. Adani records 36% support, 38% opposition.
Ipswich West (Labor 9.1%): One Nation gouge the LNP to record 29% of the primary vote, with the LNP’s 17% less than half of what they recorded in 2015. But with Labor’s 45% supplemented by 9% for the Greens, Labor records a comfortable 57-43 lead over One Nation on two-party preferred. Adani is supported by 37%, opposed by 34%.
Bundaberg (Labor 0.5%): The poll finds Labor set to lose Bundaberg to the LNP, the margin in this case being 53-47. The LNP leads 37% to 33% on the primary vote, with preferences from the 21% One Nation vote set to decide the result. This may be a seat where One Nation’s direction of preferences against incumbents may tell against Labor. The Adani question finds 33% supportive, 42% opposed.
Thuringowa (Labor 6.6%): One Nation appears set to poach this Townsville suburbs seat from Labor, skipping ahead of the LNP by 28% to 21% on the primary vote. With Labor’s primary vote at an anaemic 29%, the poll finds One Nation set to mow them down on LNP preferences and win by 54-46. This comes a week after Galaxy found the other Townsville suburbs seat, Mundingburra, flipping from Labor to LNP by a 52-48 margin. Perhaps relatedly, the poll finds emphatic support for Adani, with 52% for and 26% against.
Further poll news:
• The Australia Institute has a statewide ReachTEL poll of 2181 respondents conducted on Monday. True to ReachTEL form, the poll credits the LNP with a 52-48 lead, which more or less inverts what other pollsters are recording. Including a forced response question for the undecided, primary votes are Labor 34.0%, LNP 32.3%, One Nation 17.9%, Greens 8.3% and Katter’s Australian Party, which respondent-allocated One Nation preferences evidently tipping strongly to the LNP. The poll also finds 56.1% support the Premier’s plan to veto a government loan for Adani’s rail line, with 29.7% opposed, and 61.3% saying Tim Nicholls should follow suit, with only 21.3% saying he should promise to pursue the loan, and 6.5% saying he should do neither.
• As reported by Fairfax, a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! finds Shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson struggling to hold the new seat of Maiwar, the tougher nut he has been left to crack after his existing seat of Indooroopilly was abolished in the redistribution. After exclusion of the undecided, primary votes are LNP 46.3%, Labor 30.9% and Greens 19.6%, with the latter’s preferences to Labor securing a dead heat on two-party preferred.
• The Courier-Mail yesterday had results on Adani from a Galaxy poll of “more than 1000 voters from across Queensland”, which is a bit surprising given the lack of voting intention numbers to emerge from the exercise. The poll finds 42% saying Labor’s handling of the issue has made them less likely to vote Labor, for one reason or another, with only 14% for more likely, and 37% for no influence. Forty-seven per cent say it has made them less likely to trust Annastacia Palaszczuk, compared with 15% for more likely and 31% for no influence. Fifty-five per cent opposed the rail line loan proposal, with only 28% in favour.
• The Australian has an instructive graphic on the leaders’ movements, which shows Annastacia Palaszczuk has spent over half the campaign north of Gympie, whereas Tim Nicholls has spent nearly three-quarters of his further south. Both leaders have spent more time defending their existing seats over the past week than pursuing seats held by their opponents.
• The 100-strong audience of undecided voters at the Sky News’ three-way leaders forum on Thursday night called an emphatic win for Annastacia Palaszczuk, with 60 saying they would vote for her afterwards compared with 12 for Tim Nicholls and 10 for Steve Dickson, with 18 remaining undecided. Nicholls did particularly badly over his refusal to confirm directly that the LNP might form government with the support of One Nation, presumably inspiring yesterday’s change of tack.