ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland

ReachTEL records a slight break in Labor’s favour statewide, and a mixed bag from seat polls in Ferny Grove, Thuringowa and Whitsunday.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News has Labor leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences less than a week out from the Queensland election. This is the first time this year Labor has led in a poll by ReachTEL, which has been less favourable for Labor than other pollsters. The primary votes are Labor 34%, LNP 30%, One Nation 17%, Greens 10% and Katter’s Australian Party 3%.

There were also individual seat polls from Ferny Grove, Thuringowa and Whitsunday, although Sky News don’t appear to have published these on their website. The results confirm the general picture of Labor doing well enough in the state’s south-east (in this case leading 54-46 in Ferny Grove, a status quo result post-redistribution), but under pressure from One Nation in Townsville (50-50 in Thuringowa) and at mercy to One Nation preference flows elsewhere in northern Queensland (50.5-49.5 to Labor in Whitsunday, a 1% swing to Labor).

More detail to follow, hopefully.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

20 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland”

  1. That Greens vote of 10% looks to be a bit high, it was only 8.43% in 2015 and 7.53% in 2012. Many do say the Greens vote is usually overestimated, but from memory it was actually underestimated in QLD in 2015.

    If accurate the LNP fall is remarkable – from 49.65% in 2012, to 41.32% in 2015, to 30%. Yet the election is still about neck and neck, which it can only be if the LNP are getting a stronger preference flow than the 2PP suggests?

    I still think most NQ seats are precarious for ALP, but maybe they can win enough seats in SEQ to compensate.

    Also it was reported by Antony Green just after the 2015 election that the ALP might have won an extra eight seats under CPV instead of OPV back then (assuming the same preference flows for the exhausted votes).

  2. I think people are getting way too hung up on the ‘2PP figure’.

    With these sorts of primaries, it’s pretty clear that this election will be like 1998, where it will come down to different types of contests in different seats, and a state-wide Labor vs Liberal 2PP figure won’t mean very much.

  3. Adani has probably given the Greens a bit of a boost, though I reckon that poll is still probably overstating their support. Queensland’s never been a great state for the Greens. Hope I’m wrong, however.

    I agree that the size of the One Nation vote means the TPP probably isn’t going to be a great indicater of the seat count, especially when you consider the way they are directing their preferences. If One Nation does as well as the polls are indicating, I reckon we’re going to get a lot of unexpected results on the day, much of it dependant on how faithfully ON voters follow the HTV cards.

    Honestly, while a hung parliament is of course a very real possibility, I wouldn’t be at all surprised by either major party achieving a comfortable majority purely based on weird preference flows.

    I do really hope Labor manage to scrape back in, however. While I haven’t been the biggest fan of the Palasczuk goverment, they are still worlds above what we’d get under the idiots in the Queensland LNP, especially with a Newman clone like Nicholls in charge

  4. Just hoping the southeast will decide ON is not good for Qld. Even though an LNP-ON govt would prob help federal labor I just can’t bear the thought of my one time home being controlled in any way by ON.

    Good poll. Good night.

  5. will be a swing to labor in Brisbane and parts of the gold coast up to 8 seats there possible
    onp may win only 4 to 5 seats….. such as Gympie, Callide & Lockyner….. maybe 2 to 3 in nth qld from Labor………. labor with a chance in Whitsunday…….. each marginal seat will be like a byelection……… reachtel opinion polls suggest 3% swing to labor over the campanoign so far
    Also Turnbull govt helps labor being in power and unpopular…………

  6. @mick

    I don’t think Turnbull gov is helping much with QLD State Labor, perhaps a little.

    But with State politics play a bigger role in states like QLD/NSW.

  7. Finally, ReachTEL is falling in line with both the latest Galaxy and Newspoll polls…. the trend is truly taking shape for a narrow Labor win, but I agree that the uncertainties of the flow of preferences (especially from PHON voters) is still casting a little cloud on the final result….

  8. Note that after the redistribution (which made Ferny Grove much better for Labor) a 54-46 result is actually a swing to the LNP.

    It’s only a small swing….but I’m not sure I’d call it a “good” result for Labor, in an area where they probably need a swing to them to balance out losses elsewhere.

  9. Al Pal:

    Tim Nicholls will be the reason for any ALP win. He lacks anything!

    While I do not like Nicholls even a little bit, I’m actually not sure he’s such a detriment to the LNP’s prospects as some are hoping. You’d think his position as Campbell Newman’s treasurer would be a killer for him (certainly I did), but that fact doesn’t seem to have made much of an impact on the campaign so far. And Nicholls is positively Mr. Charisma compared to previous LNP leaders like Springborg, Seeney and Langbroek.

  10. I watched the sky news segment on Beatie and Newman like some here I guess. Note that during the day there was a rumour that a Coalition MP was going to quit if Turnbull wasn’t sacked.

    It’s in Bolts blog…

    Just a theory but this happened after the release of the poll.

    Is it fair to say there is a QLD LNP MP getting nervous and after they know the QLD state result of electorates near and in their federal electorate … may make a decision to split from the Coalition and stand as a independent or another party?

    Targets could be disgruntled LNP MP’s. Maybe they saw something in this poll that tipped them over the edge.

    A SSM No vote advocate who is upset perhaps, some other issue?

    Luke Howarth in Petrie – Marginal LNP 0.5% for example on Marriage Equality and other issues.

    Michelle Landry? Capricornia Marginal LNP 0.8%. Unlikely.

    Ross Vasta? Bonner Marginal LNP 3.7%. Abbott aligned I think.

    George Christensen, Dawson Safe LNP 7.6% . That seat is related to the Whitsunday issue in this poll and is a interesting 50-50 2PP. I remember them singling that one out with Ferny Grove and Thuringowa as the seats to watch of interest.

    Is this one of the reasons that Pyne cancelled next weeks sitting?
    With everything else that is happening… they also have a rouge MP on their hands.

    Just a thought and a theory like I said but, there very well could be a LNP Queensland MP watching this state election and is about to jump ship and this poll made them nervous during the day.

    I guess we will find out soon.

  11. Note that after the redistribution (which made Ferny Grove much better for Labor) a 54-46 result is actually a swing to the LNP.

    I’d forgotten that fact and was treating the seat as lineball when I wrote the post. I’ve subtly amended it now.

  12. I have had a close look at all the seats and I think saturdy is goingto be one helluva night.

    I think the following is possible even probable
    Katter: Hill, Traegar, Hinchinbrook (or ON), Callide
    ON: Burdekin, Maryborough, Gympie, Lockyer, Bundamba (by defection)
    Independent: Rockhampton
    Green: Noosa, South Brisbane

    Nicklin and Maiwar totally open

  13. I think Labor will regain Cairns and Cook somewhat easily, but other seats in NQ will be harder to gauge. I think there could very well be a swing away from the majors there, but a swing towards the ALP in GC and Brissy, with some stand outs. Overall, narrow Labor majority by 2-3 seats I’m thinking.

    There’ll be some surprises, no doubt.

  14. I can’t see Noosa going Green. The gaps too big and to tied to demographic cohorts to suddenly reverse (it’s primarily wealthy retirees in Noosa proper / large properties around it versus the hippy types in the Hinterlands and tree/sea changers of the Greens demographic). Also the Noosa Greens seem to be having internal issues, at the moment, I recognised an Independent for Noosa as a previous Greens endorsed contestant for Noosa Council. There’s an excellent chance that will split the vote and may even result in Labor 2nd depending on preferences. And looking at the stories in the Papers over the past 3 months it looks like a spat over who got to run for Noosa.

  15. Elaue

    You obviously know much more than I do.

    My thinking on Noosa was that there will probably be a mild swing against the LNP (say 2%) of which 1% will go green.

    There may also be a 5% Adani protest vote swinging from Labor to Green.

    I assumed that most of the PUP vote goes to ON and then back to Libs.

    After distribution of all the minors you have a very tight L49,A19 and G32. Now on those figures the Libs would still win but should there be a bigger swing against the Libs say 5% it is not nearly so clear. They would then need to get 25% of Labor preferences ahead of the greens.

    My sense is that Nicholls will not be popular with the Noosa trendies and those that do like him will be attracted first to ON.

    But with a split in the Greens no doubt you are absolutely right.

  16. A split only causes an issue if it lowers the post-preference vote of the Greens candidate. If the ex-Green independent`s preferences flow to the Green candidate enough to get them past any opponents, they win anyway, split or not split.

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