Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

Comments Page 2 of 54
1 2 3 … 54

  2. briefly @ #23 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 8:31 pm

    If I were Alexander, I would be wondering what I could do to counter Labor’s coming field efforts.

    I got an email from the ACTU looking for volunteers for their field campaign, and have volunteered to phonebank. I considered their offer to relocate for the length of the campaign, and had to decline after realising what Mrs G would have to say about me heading to NSW for 4 weeks.

  3. grimace @ #21 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 11:22 pm

    ratsak @ #10 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:50 pm

    Cautious but pleased I’d say is the feeling around Sussex St.

    Long long ways to go, but at least it indicates the Eddie Obeid gambit hasn’t knocked Keneally out in the first round.

    Good publicity around the announcement seems to have her in with a shot. Now we just need some more weeks of Trumble trying to outstupid the Australian Cricket selectors to push her over the line.

    I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the next few weeks could not possibly be any worse for Trumble than the last few. I now present myself to my fellow Bludgers and the universe to be roundly humiliated for my failure of imagination.

    The danger points for the L/NP are:
    – 1st December: how many more dual citizens are going to come out of the woodwork;
    – 2nd December: New England by-election;
    – Marriage equality vote in Parliament;
    – Michaelia Cash scandal: there are several potential catastrophes’s for the price of one here:
    It is a most opportune time for the AFP, who have to date never been able to find any evidence of
    criminal wrongdoing involving a L/NP politician or their staff member to all of a sudden
    remember they have a public duty to be non-partisan and lay criminal charges in this matter;

    The slightly less catastrophic outcome is for the various political processes to play out and find
    evidence of wrongdoing that is terminal for Ms Cash, and;

    Legal action intiated by the AWU uncovers something resulting in either of the above two
    outcomes.
    – Bennelong by-election, and;
    – The traditional December killing season.

    Surely they could not all go wrong for Brian Trumble. The universe could not be that good to Labor and Bill Shorten 😀

    It’s certainly an exciting time to be alive.

    You left out Mitch Fifield being referred to the Privileges Committee for withholding information about Stephen Parry’s dual citizenship. 🙂

  4. Grimace,
    Don’t be too worried about not being able to be an able-bodied door-knocker for Kristina’s campaign. I’ve been told that this weekend 400 hardy Labor souls have volunteered to do the job!

  5. Barney, I think that having multiple polls by different pollsters and using a range of distinct methods is about the only hope there is for seat polling. I’ve tried including it in predictive models on top of using state swings and personal vote effects and I’m not even sure that it is useful.

  7. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 12:33 am

    You left out Mitch Fifield being referred to the Privileges Committee for withholding information about Stephen Parry’s dual citizenship.

    Perhaps Fifield should be expelled from the Senate.

  8. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 12:35 am
    Grimace,
    Don’t be too worried about not being able to be an able-bodied door-knocker for Kristina’s campaign. I’ve been told that this weekend 400 hardy Labor souls have volunteered to do the job!

    Woohoo!

  12. a r

    The ‘load more’ started working again when the page changed.

    When I see now

    Sohar (Block)
    Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 11:55 pm
    Comment #33
    How’s Katharine going ..
    Quote
    Pseudo Cud Chewer (AnonBlock)
    Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 12:27 am
    Comment #51
    That’s interesting.

    When I refresh I expect the comments 34-50 will appear.

  16. Pollbludger and The Pub are two different blogs that serve different purposes and are not comparable.

    One of the main reasons I stayed after the Christmas shut down of pb ended was that I could post positive things about Julia Gillard without being dive-bombed.

    It is a place where the First Female Prime Minister of Australia has not been erased from history, like so much of women’s history, or her-story if you like, which has been actively wiped from the record, or passively ignored.

    Each blog is what people want it to be. If you do not like one or the other, no one is forcing you to read it or post.

  18. The LNP campaign for ON in QLD; Reactionary Branches campaign against the Liberal Party everywhere; Numerous MP disqualifications and more by-elections expected; Inspired candidate choice by Labor…

    Labor have everything to gain in Bennelong.

  19. Especially wrt this By-election, Malcolm Turnbull should have done as John Howard did and refused to get into bed with One Nation and Pauline Hanson. As leader of the federal party, if he had any authority, he should have ordered the LNP in Queensland to drop her like a hot potato. No preference deals. No governing in coalition with One Nation.

    The voters of Bennelong aren’t stupid. They can draw logical conclusions about all of this.

  20. C@tmomma @ #54 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:35 pm

    Grimace,
    Don’t be too worried about not being able to be an able-bodied door-knocker for Kristina’s campaign. I’ve been told that this weekend 400 hardy Labor souls have volunteered to do the job!

    Given a standard day’s doorknocking, that will result somewhere in the order of 10,000 actual one on one conversations, making the assumption that each person only goes out door knocking on one day. I’d be willing to bet a fair few volunteers will go out door knocking both morning and afternoon, and on both days, so 15,000 actual one on one conversations this weekend is not out of the question.

    No wonder the L/NP fear Labor’s field campaign.

  21. C@tmomma @ #54 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:35 pm

    Grimace,
    Don’t be too worried about not being able to be an able-bodied door-knocker for Kristina’s campaign. I’ve been told that this weekend 400 hardy Labor souls have volunteered to do the job!

    I’m consoling myself with phone banking for Queensland Labor tomorrow, assuming I don’t get killed by Mrs G when I wake her up before I leave – someone needs to look after our 4 year old.

  23. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 12:40 am
    briefly @ #59 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 12:39 am

    400 should be a good start. I doubt the Liberals could summon 4.
    Not after this poll!

    Labor would be able to canvass every residence in an afternoon….awesome.

  25. C@tmomma @ #72 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:49 pm

    Grimace,
    To which you can add the Union’s door-knocking campaign! 🙂

    This will be a good test of the effectiveness of very large scale field campaigning and I’m looking forward to seeing the result. The first opinion poll suggests that the campaign proper starts at 50/50. My wild guess tip is a Labor win with 13% swing against the L/NP.

  26. PuffyTMD @ #66 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 12:43 am

    Pollbludger and The Pub are two different blogs that serve different purposes and are not comparable.

    One of the main reasons I stayed after the Christmas shut down of pb ended was that I could post positive things about Julia Gillard without being dive-bombed.

    It is a place where the First Female Prime Minister of Australia has not been erased from history, like so much of women’s history, or her-story if you like, which has been actively wiped from the record, or passively ignored.

    Each blog is what people want it to be. If you do not like one or the other, no one is forcing you to read it or post.

    A VERY selective interpretation, PTMD. I can remember quite clearly that I was hounded out of the other blog for vociferously supporting Julia Gillard. For not kowtowing to fiona and talking to her about why I was so upset, when she rang me up one night. I had been given the rounds of the kitchen by Bushfire Bill, publicly, on the blog, and I would have thought it was obvious to blind freddy. And for over-using emojis, apparently, which herr commandant Bill didn’t approve of. Frankly, I’m glad to be shot of that viperous clique. Sadly, however, it has leached over to PB.

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 12:47 am
    Especially wrt this By-election, Malcolm Turnbull should have done as John Howard did and refused to get into bed with One Nation and Pauline Hanson.

    ON will cannibalise the LNP base. Simple as that. The LNP have just authorised this. And LNP voters who are hostile to ON will vote Labor. The LNP have chosen suicide as a political strategy. It almost worked in WA. The Liberals were almost obliterated and now hold just 11 of 59 seats. Their upper house vote fell to 26%, possibly the worst result they’ve yet recorded.

    Howard always insisted that ON be placed last because that was the way to maximise the Liberal vote. If the result in WA is any guide, they have completely lost the plot.

  30. Howard always insisted that ON be placed last because that was the way to maximise the Liberal vote. If the result in WA is any guide, they have completely lost the plot.

    …Ever since Tony Abbott & the Conservatives took over the running of the Liberal Party.

  31. Handing out 1000 free tee shirts, with the words “Turnbull Stole My Penalty Rates” emblazoned front and back to underemployed youth in Bennelong should work a treat too.

  32. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 1:00 am
    Howard always insisted that ON be placed last because that was the way to maximise the Liberal vote. If the result in WA is any guide, they have completely lost the plot.

    …Ever since Tony Abbott & the Conservatives took over the running of the Liberal Party.

    The pop-right are going to devour the archeo-Libs.

  33. shiftaling @ #81 Saturday, November 18th, 2017 – 12:59 am

    If people are calling your landline to discuss emojis you know it’s got weird

    Nah, the phone call was in response to my response on the blog, which was obviously emotional, to being publicly humiliated on the other blog by BB. As you can probably tell, he is very good/practiced at it.

    I just didn’t want to talk about it any more. That was very rude of me, apparently.

    There’s nowt as queer as folk. That is fer sure!

  34. Anyway, it’s been a loooong day for me and so now I am off to bed. I’m sure it’s going to be a bumper crop from BK and Phoenix Red tomorrow! See you on the upside. 🙂

  35. C@

    A VERY selective interpretation, PTMD.

    With all due respect, Puffy is saying why she posts on both blogs not saying anything about your falling out.

    The reason for that I don’t know either.

  39. Bennelong byelection: Kristina Keneally puts Labor back in the race in Bennelong
    ReachTEL poll TPP is 53 Lib 47 ALP, a swing to Labor
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bennelong-byelection-kristina-keneally-puts-labor-back-in-the-race-in-bennelong-20171117-gzni7a.html

    Queensland election: marginal polls provide Palaszczuk hope of victory http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/queensland-election-marginal-polls-provide-palaszczuk-hope-of-victory/news-story/9a7005f1787e36da8a23b79a5260d972 ($)
    Tables PDF, no paywall
    https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/seats.pdf

  40. Would be amazing if the good result in the postal survey followed by a surprise upset in Bennelong was a kind of galvanizing zeitgeist moment. White swan for a change

  41. Why does Ipswich West give a toss about the Adani Coal Mine ? At a glance to me it looks like a purely tribal thing from it’s very high cohort of PHON voters.

    Also that Newspoll is giving some really good preference flows to Labor. Like you need to assume that Labor are getting ~67% of PHON preferences or 100% of other party preferences in some seats (from Katter / Greens AND Others), and there’s a couple there where PHON is breaking less than 67% to the LNP because that would be an auto-win.

  42. The Truth Comes Out As Trump Made Millions Off Of Project Tied To Russian Organized Crime

    The truth that the Trump family has been trying to hide is finally coming out as a Trump building in Panama has ties to drug trafficking and Russian organized crime.

    Little by little, the President’s defenses are being chipped away at, and what is emerging is the tale of a failed businessman who got to the presidency with the illegal help of his Russian friends.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/17/truth-trump-millions-project-tied-russian-organized-crime.html

  44. Ex-CIA chief explains why Putin is easily ‘outsmarting’ an ‘incredibly naive and uninformed’ Trump

    Former Acting Director of Central Intelligence John McLaughlin on Friday penned an op-ed for Politico Magazine sharply criticizing Donald Trump’s approach to Vladimir Putin, arguing the Russian president is “outsmarting” the president of the United States.

    “When the Art of the Deal meets the KGB, the KGB will always win,” McLaughlin—who served for over 30 years at the Central Intelligence Agency—wrote.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/ex-cia-chief-explains-why-putin-is-easily-outsmarting-an-incredibly-naive-and-uninformed-trump/

  45. There’s new evidence suggesting Jared Kushner perjured himself in congressional testimony

    A new report from Foreign Policy suggests Jared Kushner may have perjured himself during closed-door congressional testimony earlier this year.

    A source tells the publication that Kushner testified that he “never had contact with Wikileaks or Assange — nor did anyone else on the campaign.” This directly contradicts what we now know about Donald Trump Jr.’s direct interactions with WikiLeaks via Twitter direct messages

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/theres-new-evidence-suggesting-jared-kushner-perjured-himself-in-congressional-testimony/

  47. C@tmomma says: Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 1:06 am

    Anyway, it’s been a loooong day for me and so now I am off to bed. I’m sure it’s going to be a bumper crop from BK and Phoenix Red tomorrow! See you on the upside

    ************************************************

    C@tmomma – Thank you yesterday for your wisdom and kind words of encouragement and support.

  48. Morning all

    PhoenixRed

    Whilst putin is outsmarting Trump, this observation is very pertinent too.

    Counterchekist
    @counterchekist
    ·
    1h
    Replying to @20committee
    Bingo. And tRUmp did a masterful job keeping MSM’s attention away from his shady business dealings with his various outrage du jours distracting them.

    Every time MSM mocks tRUmp’s intelligence, they should be reminded that he outsmarted & played them for years.

  49. Re KK domain owned by the Liberal party

    When Malaysian PM jailed his opponent for sodomy my Chinese Malaysian colleague remarked

    ‘Where there is smoke, there is fire’

    So if that attitude is common in Bennelong that domain can do lots of damage

    Surely domain names ought to have same rules as company names. No one can stop you trading under your own name

  50. Difference between the Pub and here

    I have never been banned there
    The moderators there have never disclosed my identity to other posters
    Some people are banned there

Comments Page 2 of 54
1 2 3 … 54

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *