BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

A long period of poll trend stasis appears to have ended, with three pollsters reporting a break to Labor.

Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

623 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. Current details for ABN 68 324 857 904
    ABN details help
    Entity name: THE LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA – NSW DIVISION
    ABN status: Active from 01 Nov 1999
    Entity type: Other Unincorporated Entity
    Goods & Services Tax (GST): Registered from 01 Jul 2000
    Main business location:
    NSW 2011

  2. BB, well done with your OH suspension.

    You have won, but what worries me is that your OH was up against a sociopath. From the email sent by mistake indicates the person also has an ego.

    One thing about sociopaths, they don’t stop. They consider this setback as a lost battle with more to come. Sometimes their victims may not even know they are being victimised again. Subtle things, like missing out on a promotion, a bit of smearing of character behind the scenes etc.

    I can only hope the person behaved so badly, that they were removed from the situation permanently to leave your OH to continue with her career without interference.

  3. Bushfire Bill @ #595 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 6:52 pm

    Now THAT is a great find Dan Gulberry, if verifiable.

    I assume you mean the Libs registering keneally.com.au?

    Yep, it’s genuine. You can check for yourself using the Registry Portal whois tool:

    http://whois.ausregistry.net.au/whois/whois_local.jsp. (Type in the full domain name without the www, fill in the code, and it shows the details.)

    It was registered on 14/11/17.

    Stingy bastards – couldn’t even stump up the few extra bucks for domain anonymity. 😆

  4. CTar1 @ #358 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 12:05 pm

    kevjohnno Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 2:43 pm Comment #341

    Supplier reps often come to the office and seem to want to talk about anything but their products. Most sales reps just seem to love talking or maybe the are just trying to distract me

    When their ‘anything’ includes subjects that many people find controversial, confronting or possibly have strong feelings on in their sales pitch it’s a moronic way of trying to make a sale.

    P1 your lack of business acumen is showing through there, or perhaps you’re just no good at business development (BD).

    Good BD people are expert at picking up on subjects that interest their (potential) clients and using that to get them talking, as part of their strategy to develop, build and maintain relationships with them. I’ve seen it done many times to great success, despite not being much good at it myself.

  6. When I googled “Liberal Party NSW ABN” it came up with “30 046 889 989”.

    Maybe they have a different ABN for their Dirty Tricks Department.

  7. Long time lurker but finally fed up – no BB means no PB for me – remaining sycophants can continue with their circle jerk – I’m off to The Pub.

    No offence to The Pub, but I think you’d have to say the notion that this blog is a “circle jerk” when that one is not is pretty fucking hilarious.

  9. Cambodia:

    BiDG – Some international reaction –

    PHNOM PENH (Reuters) – The United States stopped election support for Cambodia with a promise of more “concrete steps” and the European Union threatened vital trade preferences after the main opposition party to Prime Minister Hun Sen was banned.

    But then …

    But China voiced support for Cambodia’s government, standing behind the former Khmer Rouge commander who has become one of Beijing’s most important allies in Southeast Asia after more than three decades in power.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cambodia-politics/cambodia-faces-u-s-eu-action-after-banning-opposition-idUSKBN1DH033

  10. BB
    It’s very rare to take on City Hall and win, and even rarer to feel it was worth the effort.
    Suffice to say I understand what your family has been through, although mine was not as job threatening. You learn a lot but even in winning, you almost always still lose.
    One day I’d love to tell my story but I need a Harvey Weinstein moment for it to happen.

  11. Exclusive first Galaxy poll for Bennelong in The Saturday Daily Telegraph. Incredible numbers. #auspol
    https://twitter.com/wrongdorey/status/931469800076845058

    #Galaxy Poll Seat of #Bennelong 2 Party Preferred: LIB 50 (-9.7 since election) ALP 50 (+9.7) #auspol
    https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/931479711301042176

    main article not up yet, but this editorial is
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/editoria-bennelong-a-test-for-pm/news-story/fe1bb009848de383a9ef3c6f8c7ed4b8

    Includes…

    “According to the poll, based on a sample of 579 Bennelong voters, Alexander’s 9 per cent margin from last year’s federal vote has already been almost completely erased, with four more weeks to go before the by-election is held on December 16.

    Primary support for the sitting member has declined by more than eight percentage points since and now stands at 42 per cent.

    That puts Alexander only slightly ahead of Labor’s challenger, who is polling at 39 per cent.

    Adding to the unusual nature of this contest, of course, is the identity of Labor’s candidate.

    Former premier Kristina Keneally quit state politics one year after her defeat in the 2011 NSW election.

    Today’s Galaxy poll represents a stunning comeback for Keneally, who after only a few days of campaigning is exactly level on a two-party preferred basis with the incumbent.”

    No other primaries yet

  12. grimace @ #604 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 10:08 pm

    P1 your lack of business acumen is showing through there, or perhaps you’re just no good at business development (BD).

    Not sure why you singled me out for this comment, but never mind. The truth is that I have reached the age where seeing someone’s jaw drop because their preconceptions are shown to be utter crap has become worth more to me than any potential business I might lose 🙂

  14. Bushfire:

    Very pleased to hear of Her Indoors’s win against the bureaucracy. I remember when it all started and you were commenting about how stressful things were then. I can’t imagine living through that for all this time, but I’m glad the good guys won in the end.

  15. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP
    4h4 hours ago
    Meanwhile Margaret Court is threatening to leave the Liberal Party because it won’t ignore the 62% Yes result in a SSM survey it wanted. Good god….

    No, not good god if you want to see a Liberal party rid of these people, but good riddance!

  16. grimace

    P1 your lack of business acumen is showing through there

    I think that was kevjohnno and I talking about people who are trying to sell stuff.

    P1 was in the conversation at some point about the automatic assumption she had to be a Lib voter.

  18. Bushfire Bill @ #576 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 6:23 pm

    BB. Good to hear the result overthrowing your wife’s suspension. Taking on a self-interested bureaucracy is never likely to be a pleasant task.

    It was highly un-pleasant, but you need to know that, from time to time, power can be beaten at its own game, most of whose rules they themselves have no idea of (being used to applying the rubber hose to the shins and the telephone book to the back of the head as the embodiment of “due process”). They hate you quoting their own rules back at them.

    But it does make me wonder just how many other employees simply gave up, their employment files forever stained by adverse findings that bore no relation to the truth.

    You see their posters against bullying and mobbing stuck up all over the workplace, and you really do have to have a chuckle to yourself at the sheer gall they have in claiming to be “role models” (as managers) for decent behaviour, when the worst of the worst are themselves.

    I’m glad to hear your wife has been cleared by this process and my best wishes for her future.

    I hope for her sake she is not a marked woman now.

  20. CTar1 @ #608 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 6:23 pm

    Cambodia:

    BiDG – Some international reaction –

    PHNOM PENH (Reuters) – The United States stopped election support for Cambodia with a promise of more “concrete steps” and the European Union threatened vital trade preferences after the main opposition party to Prime Minister Hun Sen was banned.

    But then …

    But China voiced support for Cambodia’s government, standing behind the former Khmer Rouge commander who has become one of Beijing’s most important allies in Southeast Asia after more than three decades in power.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cambodia-politics/cambodia-faces-u-s-eu-action-after-banning-opposition-idUSKBN1DH033

    That’s the problem.

    With the relationship with China gaining strength the importance of western acceptance becomes less.

    With Chinese support it’s much easier for Hun Sen to say f@#k you.

    You’ll really know it’s gone full tilt when the Yuan replaces the US dollar as the local currency.

  21. KayJay @ #549 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    I tested the blocking/unblocking with an early version and it worked fine.

    Working fine for me. Chrome and plugin version 0.8.10.

    C@tmomma @ #543 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:35 pm

    However, upon hearing of his latest spray, now against zoomster of all Bludgers! I find that I have unearthed a flaw in the latest version of C+.

    You can’t unblock someone once they have been blocked! So I can’t read it!

    Seem to be working okay for me. You should have ‘Unblock’ controls available beneath the pagination controls. Like:

    shiftaling @ #523 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:03 pm

    Who accused you of being a Jew hater?

    I think someone said to BB something to the effect of “look at what you just wrote and then replace the word ‘gay’ with ‘Jew’ and see if you still agree with it”.

    Taking that to mean that they’ve just called you a “Jew hater” is a massive stretch, imo. I doubt that’s how the original remark was intended.

  22. Bushfire Bill says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:12 pm
    That’s rich, coming from a lurker!
    Don, you’ve only been around since virtually yesterday. If you’re going to start labelling people as lurkers, remember that some, a very few, have been posting here for over a decade, and have a much better context and status as “regulars” than yourself.

    I started coming to William’s blog in 2007, at the time of Kevin 07.

    Not that length of time here makes a blind bit of difference.

  23. Mark Butler is the grandson and great-grandson of Liberal premiers but he certainly did not attend a private school.
    Like Julia Gillard he went to Unley High School.

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