BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

A long period of poll trend stasis appears to have ended, with three pollsters reporting a break to Labor.

Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

623 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. A friend has returned from a visit to PMG, a visit which was in connection to the changes in the refugee accommodation. The impression s/he ( I have to be careful) came away with; is the timing of refugee settlement program’s solution is CLOSELY connected to the next AU federal election.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The SMH editorial laments the rise in global inequality and its effect on social cohesion.
    Yet another one vote defeat for an assisted dying bill.
    Dutton has opened the door to a potential refugee resettlement deal between Papua New Guinea and New Zealand, acknowledging it is a decision for the two sovereign states that Australia could not block. Ardern’s done him over in the public forum.
    New Zealand has offered sanctuary to 150 refugees Australia has marooned on Manus Island, but our Malcolm Turnbull has refused to allow it. Jade Manson reports on a developing humanitarian crisis.,10934
    Judith Ireland writes about Dean Smith, the unlikely champion of SSM.
    Bernardi’s day of mischief – or was it recruitment – in the Senate yesterday.
    Cory Bernardi has exposed Coalition divisions over social issues and won rare support from Labor leader Bill Shorten –over the hacking of Christopher Pyne’s Twitter account – as federal politics took a bizarre turn.
    Amazon is known throughout the business world for being a ruthless competitor — and is on track to become the first trillion-dollar company. But its brutal workplace culture is no secret.
    Twenty NAB bankers have been sacked and a further 32 disciplined after the bank found they had been granting home loans based on incorrect information.
    Gay and lesbian couples face a likely wait of at least two months before being allowed to tie the knot, as the landmark change passes through the hands of politicians, bureaucrats and the Governor-General. A bubble in the making?

  3. Whisper

    That sounds very believable. Stall, stall, and then pull the rabbit out of the hat when the election is called.

    Meanwhile, let the suffering continue. 😡

  4. Section 2 . . .

    A nice effort from Laura Tingle on the eventual passage of SSM legislation. Google.
    Catherine McGregor advises Turnbull to put reactionary MPs to the sword in the wake of the success of the YES vote. A very good contribution in which she doesn’t hold back.
    After the postal vote, we will never think of western Sydney the same way again writes Andy Marks.
    Michelle Grattan says the Coalition conservatives don’t have the numbers to insert egregious amendments into the bill that’s now before parliament. And she has a look at other things that have happened during the week.
    Tony Wright says the people of Australia, the majority of them, have told those who make the laws that despite the hullabaloo and cross words of recent months, they are a lot more relaxed about the ways in which people wish to express their love than some of their representatives might have imagined.
    Richo says the waste of money holding the postal survey was wrong but the result was all so right. Google.
    James Massola on the right wing noise about “religious protection”. The clarion call for rear guard action.
    Now stand by for the SSM fights within the churches.
    Why Western Sydney voted NO.
    Ben Eltham on the winners and the losers and how they went about the SSM campaign.

  5. Section 3 . . .

    Fergus Hunter on the mystery of Christopher Pyne’s allegedly hacked Facebook account.
    Shanghai police have seized 14,000 bottles of fake Penfolds wine being sold by counterfeiters in China. Counterfeit food is a BIG thing in China and I know one winemaker who is using this to overcome it. It was developed by Beston Global Foods.
    The Royal Commission into children in detention in the Northern Territory says the financial costs are “staggering” and its final report to be released today will show the problem is “deep seated, confronting and come at an enormous human and financial cost”.
    In our new normal, experts are dismissed and alternative facts flagrantly offered. This suspicion of specialists is part of a bigger problem.
    Two directors of the $70 million foundation that normally underpins Victorian and federal Liberal Party funding have taken the ¬unorthodox step of meeting ¬confidentially with the Andrews Labor government over political donation reform. What’s going on here? Google.
    Mark Latham has claimed a defamation lawsuit brought against him by an editor of news and pop culture website Junkee is an attempt to “break” him financially after he spoke out against “anti-white racism”.
    Joseph Stiglitz says that Trump has fascist tendencies.
    The threat of an early election will not help Christmas retail trade.
    I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a clear People’s Forum win as Anastacia inflicted on the hapless Nicholls yesterday. 60/12/10 Labor/LNP/PHON!
    Nicholls was heckled by an audience of swinging voters after failing to answer a question about whether the party will form government with One Nation if there is a hung parliament after the November 25 election.

  6. Section 4 . . .

    NSW will fine companies $1m for using banned building products. At last – some tangible action!
    US player Harbour Energy’s ambitions for an $11 billion acquisition of Santos have run into political hot water as South Australian Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis signalled the state would seek to prevent a foreign takeover. Google.
    Bunnings says its losses in the UK are about to get even worse.
    Gerry Harvey has made it into his 30th year as Harvey Norman chairman, surviving a significant shareholder revolt over directors’ pay and complaints about a lack of board renewal. One day, Gerry, one day!
    Will Bitcoin go the way of the tulips? Google.
    The hotel-casino from where the gunman fired, concert organizers and the makers and sellers of a bump stock gun accessory are named as defendants in a lawsuit in the wake of the Las Vegas mass shooting.
    Staff at an oxygen therapy clinic that claimed to offer cures for HIV and cancer and was caught up in the Essendon doping saga are to take the stand when their boss faces court over a client’s death. Where do these charlatans get off?
    Look at Trump’s face in this performance! The late night TV shows were salivating over it.

  7. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 1

    David Rowe with a sad and sorry Tony Abbott.

    Cathy Wilcox and a retailer’s Christmas wish.

    David Pope goes to Zimbabwe.
    Is the clock ticking for Murdoch? John Shakespeare.

    Simon Letch sums up the government quite well here.

    Some perspective from Cathy Wilcox.

    John Shakespeare goes shopping.

    Paul Zanetti sees off Abbott’s SSM efforts.

  8. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    Matt Golding takes the SSM debate to another level.

    And he returns us to the main game.

    Brilliant! Golding with the volcano gods being appeased.

    Two more from Golding.

    I LOVE this one from Mark Knight.

    Alan Moir with an upset pair.

    Andrew Dyson’s not too sure about Turnbull’s delight.
    Matt Davidson with the coat of arms celebrating.
    In the cake shop with Jon Kudelka.

  9. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Does Whisper’s whisper about a Manus/Nauru deal being held off until nearer the next election, have anything to do with this: ‘The threat of an early election…’

  10. Trump Exposed As A Fake Billionaire As His Business Is Only Worth One Tenth Of What He Claimed

    Trump claimed the Trump Organization was worth $9.5 billion, but according to new filings, his business is worth $600-$700 million.

    The Independent reported, “While the Trump Organization claimed $9.5bn (£7.2bn) in sales last year, Mr Trump’s public filings suggest revenues of less than a tenth of that amount, between $600m (£450m) and $700m (£530m).”

    The fact that Trump isn’t worth anything close to the amount of money that he claimed to be worth is important to the Russia scandal. If Trump really was a billionaire who didn’t Russian money to keep his business afloat, his denials of connections to Russia would be more believable, but the picture that’s emerging is of a fake billionaire who US banks wouldn’t loan money to because of his numerous bankruptcies, so he had to look to Russia for cash.

  11. Democrats Wave Goodbye To House Republicans After They Pass Tax Cuts For The Rich

    A clear sign that they think Republicans just voted themselves out of office

    There was a growing possibility that the Republican House majority was toast even before this vote. What Republicans managed to do was dump a can of gas into a raging dumpster fire. To put it mildly, voting to cut taxes for the rich while increasing them on everyone else, and taking healthcare away from 13 million Americans is not going to help them keep their majority.

  12. Turkish gold trader mysteriously vanishes from prison — which may mean he is now helping Mueller nail Flynn

    A Turkish-Iranian gold trader scheduled to go to trial in New York on Monday is no longer in the U.S. prison system, but remains in federal custody, prompting speculation he may be cooperating with investigators as part of a plea deal—and helping to build special counsel Robert Mueller’s case against Donald Trump’s former national security adviser Michael Flynn.

  13. Labor MPs from western Sydney sounded confident yesterday, but they must be sniffing danger.

    Many of the people from these ethnic and religious communities have left their homelands in Middle East, South Asia and elsewhere arriving in Australia to raise their children in peace and prosperity. To find themselves in a society that goes directly against the teachings of their religion is a major concern. As one of the families I talked to puts it: “We recently left Afghanistan to settle in Australia for the sake of our children, for a better and safe life. Now we are going to struggle raising our children in a society that goes directly against the basic teachings of our religion”.

    In such a scenario, Muslims and other conservative ethnic communities in western Sydney are likely to grow closer to the conservative bloc in Australia – it will be with mixed feelings and a struggle for many, but we have seen this before in the US.

  14. Like many others, Western Australian Labor Senator Pat Dodson stood up in Parliament today to farewell Jacqui Lambie, who resigned from the Senate after British authorities confirmed she is a UK dual citizen, as her father was born in Scotland.

    But unlike others, Mr Dodson’s remarks came from a different place. The ‘Father of Reconciliation’ took the opportunity to point out how Ms Lambie’s Scottish heritage had brushed aside her Indigenous inheritance, as a result of a Constitution that fails to recognise Australia’s First Peoples.

    “We don’t have a word that says goodbye in our language. We have a word that says ‘galiya’, ‘we’ll see you when we see you’. And this side of Jacqui’s heritage, her Indigenous side is what aggrieves me most to see her go,” he said as he choked up.

    “Scottish, yes, Irish… everyone else here has all of those things. But the First Nations Peoples, the Indigenous peoples, whose history is caught up with her history, and it’s simply put to one side because we have a Constitution that refuses to recognise, to recognise the First Peoples.”

  15. When Has Trump Been Accused of Rape or Attempted Rape? Allegations Include a Child, His Wife and a Business Associate

    Former Alabama judge Roy Moore appears to be losing his shot at a seat in the U.S. Senate that was previously a near-guaranteed win. This follows numerous accusations of inappropriate behavior, including making sexual advances on a 14-year-old girl.

    The allegations arrived during a watershed moment in the country, as victims speak out in droves against powerful and dangerous offenders. But one man apparently slipped through the cracks just before America began this reckoning. Despite facing a flurry of allegations, Donald Trump became president.

    Trump has been accused of rape and attempted rape a total of three times, once involving an alleged victim who was a year younger than Moore’s accuser

    Donald Trump was accused by at least 16 women of sexual harassment and assault throughout the 2016 election campaign, and he still won the presidency.

  16. Woman Accuses Trump Of Inappropriate Sexual Conduct. Here’s The Full List

    Though some allegations had first been reported months ago, a 2005 video taken prior to a Trump appearance on Access Hollywood brought renewed, intense scrutiny to Trump’s treatment of women. In the video, Trump describes kissing women and grabbing their crotches without consent (“[W]hen you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything,” he can be heard telling host Billy Bush).

    That kicked off a flood of accusations, which, taken together, suggest a decades-long pattern of behavior. We have compiled a list of the things women have alleged against him. We will update the list if new information emerges.

  17. Does Phoenix Red do anything else here but post hopelessly optimistic slabs of anti-Trump propaganda, all eminating from a single gossip-mongering US website?

  18. Bill McKibben‏Verified account

    Huge walkout from U.S.-sponsored panel at UN climate talks on the topic of why Coal is Great! Apparently no one left to listen…

    Overnight there was a report of the disastrous effect coal emissions are having on the health of Bosnians. I would like Canavan and his coal-lovers to see that.

  19. Bushfire Bill (AnonBlock)
    Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:15 am
    Comment #21
    Does Phoenix Red do anything else here but post hopelessly optimistic slabs of anti-Trump propaganda, all eminating from a single gossip-mongering US website?

    Does Bushfire Bill do anything else here but throw his weight around and act like he owns the blog? He’s got his own blog for that.

  20. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 7:21 am
    Bushfire Bill (AnonBlock)
    Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:15 am
    Comment #21
    Does Phoenix Red do anything else here but post hopelessly optimistic slabs of anti-Trump propaganda, all eminating from a single gossip-mongering US website?

    Does Bushfire Bill do anything else here but throw his weight around and act like he owns the blog? He’s got his own blog for that.

    Onya C@t. Well said.

  21. If PhoenixRED has to post US politics stuff, then why not do it the same way as BK ?

    Have one post, with all the links to the various stories & a one-line description of what the story says.

    Then, anyone who is interested can click on the link & read more.

  22. “Have one post, with all the links to the various stories & a one-line description of what the story says.”

    The safer option for copyright reasons, too.

  23. lizzie @ #26 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:30 am

    Do I now have to apologise because I feel much the same as BB?

    I don’t think you need to apologise and nor should anybody else.

    I don’t agree with every point Bushfire Bill makes but I like Bushfire Bill’s stuff. He makes me laugh and try to think outside the box. I don’t detect that he thinks he owns the blog. I think I own the blog and I would like to offer shares to anybody interested. Please apply care of the usual Dodgy Bros and KayJay enterprises NOW.

    I also like a lot of the work of those who don’t agree with me on this.

    In William’s house are many mansions, however and because of that there came into being the scroll wheel.

    While I am here :-

    Thank you BK for your wonderful Dawn Patrol .

    You provide me with a guide to the direction of the great and the good (very often different people and organisations) thereby saving me the distress of watching morning TV and/or reading the rubbish that passes for journalistic comment and dis/information.

    I remain deeply beholden to you BK, although I suspect that word “beholden” will not need modification and will likely become………………………………………………Please help me here ❗

    I have a very sad and extremely distressing story to tell concerning my closest living relatives in Canberry – but that’s for another day.

    I wish a pleasant and happy day for all.

    ☮Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ 😎☕

  24. BB normally I would agree that the sources PhoenixRed links to are not to be taken as credible, even a simple reading of the text in one of those raw politics or whatever reveals the bias. But today the links are to Newsweek and NPR.

  25. Mr Bowe….or other learned bludgers, how close is bludgertrack to an actual election result.? Not trying to be narky just interested as the track is at nearly 54% to the ALP. If that was the resultof an election the LNP is in serious trouble.

  26. A long time ago, I think before the US elections, someone suggested that there should be a separate thread. Now I wish that had been done.

  27. lizzie,
    To be fair, you post a lot of links about the Manus Island situation. Does anyone say that they wish there was a separate thread for them? No.

    That’s why we have a scroll wheel and the Block button. You can always Block Phoenix Red if his links irritate you so much. Or you can scroll on by.

  28. C@tmomma

    Well “to be fair”, I don’t post three or more Manus Is. comments first thing every morning, and Manus is more important to local politics, but I shall take your advice.

  29. Bushfire Bill if you have a problem with the posts from any particular poster why not address them directly with your concerns. It might work better than a disparaging comment addressed the the rest of PB.

  30. sonar:

    Mr Bowe….or other learned bludgers, how close is bludgertrack to an actual election result.? Not trying to be narky just interested as the track is at nearly 54% to the ALP. If that was the resultof an election the LNP is in serious trouble.

    I can’t remember how close it was in 2016, but IIRC the final 2013 Bludgertrack was eerily spot on in both the TPP and the seat counts.

  31. Also, I think that we have a rather unique President of the United States in office at the moment, with the imbroglio around him of global interest. People in Australia were just as transfixed by Watergate. Kremlingate is no different.

    Maybe more references to serious blogs of record like Politico, The New Yorker, Mother Jones, Slate, The Hill or Alternet, could be woven into the mix.

  32. shiftaling:

    BB normally I would agree that the sources PhoenixRed links to are not to be taken as credible, even a simple reading of the text in one of those raw politics or whatever reveals the bias

    Agreed. Much as I loathe Trump and enjoy reading articles ragging on him, those Raw Politics and Politics USA websites are difficult to take seriously.

  33. RMIT ABC Fact Check‏Verified account

    Social Services Minister @cporterwa’s claim that Newstart spending is lower under the Coalition than Labor, with people moving off the payment faster is spin. New #factcheck: #auspol

  34. Cat

    There is a difference re Manus – that is the responsibility of Australia – the government for which we vote.

    The US stuff is fairly irrelevant to us- sorta like endless links on Mugabe. Who rule is USA is important obviously since it is so big, but endless minutiae of party politics in the USA is pretty useless.

    No I go often to a very good site RCP (conservative leaning slightly) which posts all sorts of articles on US politics (excellent polling data too). However I skip over all the boring stuff on congress races, because they are pretty irrelevant. to us. What is interesting on that site is that the editors make some effort to be unbiased ie a Trump leaning article will be followed by a Democrat leaning one etc. What you realise is that the stuff Phoenix is posting is way off the main stream centre.

    I also skip over the Tax stuff too – I am not voting in USA, and the health care also – not really relevant to me.

  35. Morning all
    I for one really appreciate PhoenixRed contributions. Saves me a lot of time.
    I am actually sick of the repetitive scribes being posted on the dual citizen saga.

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