A bit of confusion surrounding the ReachTEL poll that appeared in the Sunday Mail, which asked about voting intention only as a “filter” for identifying One Nation supporters, and has not published the numbers. Sky News reported an LNP lead of 52-48 from the poll, but it is hard to say what this is based on. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 3435, but if I understand it correctly, only the 700 or so One Nation-voting respondents would then have completed the survey. Nonetheless, the poll has some interesting results, suggesting the One Nation voter base to be engorged with LNP deserters who intend to preference their old party, and have a surprisingly strong expectation that One Nation will be in government with it after the election.
• Asked how they voted in 2015, 45.7% said the LNP, compared with 21.1% for Katter’s Australian Party and just 19.8% for Labor.
• Only 11% anticipated major party majority government after the election, with 67.2% expecting One Nation would govern in coalition with the LNP (understandings of the term “coalition” perhaps being imprecise for some), and 21.7% expecting they would do so with Labor.
• Given one pick out of seven on a most important issues list, 34.4% chose managing immigration, with job creation and crime and antisocial behaviour next on 17% apiece.
• A forced preference question on who respondents favoured in last year’s presidential election had Donald Trump favoured over Hillary Clinton by 69.9% to 30.1%.
• Respondents self-reported as being both well educated, with an above-par 31.7% with university degrees, and low income, with fully 41.2% reporting an annual household income of less than $50,000. One Nation’s large share of 65-plus supporters are leaning on the scales here, with 63.8% rating themselves in the lowest bracket. Over half of those under 50 put their household income at $75,000 or higher.
• On preferences, 74.5% said they would favour the LNP compared with 25.5% for Labor.
In other happy developments for the ReachTEL share price:
• Fairfax has a statewide ReachTEL poll for parental advocacy organisation The Parenthood, and this one really does have the LNP leading 52-48. This is both consistent with ReachTEL’s own earlier polling and inconsistent with that of other pollsters, which have given the slight advantage to Labor. Primary votes of LNP 30.8%, Labor 30.4%, One Nation 16.4% and Greens 8.1%, but this presumably doesn’t exclude an undecided component of 8% or so. UPDATE: Full results from GhostWhoVotes, showing primary votes of Labor 32.7%, LNP 32.2%, One Nation 17.7% and Greens 9.5%.
• Fairfax reports further ReachTEL polling from the regional seats of Gympie and Callide, conducted privately for an unidentified concern. The results show One Nation slightly ahead of the LNP on the primary vote in Gympie and slightly behind in Callide, but set to benefit on preferences in the latter case from Katter’s Australian Party, whose candidate was on 10%.
• The LNP is directing preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor in 53 of the 61 seats in which it is running, the exceptions being Buderim, Logan, Mudgeeraba, Nicklin, Coomera, Scenic Rim, Stretton, Toohey and Thuringowa.
• Sportsbet has been steadfast in offering $1.75 for Labor and $2 for the LNP, but Ladbrokes has now returned the LNP to very slight favouritism. Where Labor was on $1.83 and the LNP $1.95 at the start of the week, now the numbers are reversed. Ladbrokes has shortened the Greens in South Brisbane from $3 to $2.50, with Labor out from $1.30 to $1.36. One Nation leader Steve Dickson remains a slight in Buderim, despite having been compelled this week to “clarify” his claim that grade four students were being instructed in masturbation and the use of sex toys by the Safe Schools program.
• Labor courted favour with voters in Maryborough last week by enlisting Downer EDI to repair defective rolling stock manufactured in India, at a cost of $150 million, and promising Queensland’s trains would be built in the city in future. The Premier’s language concerning the defective trains, which were purchased under the Newman government, drew a rebuke from the India Australia Exchange Forum.
• A $679 million health spending announcement last week gave Labor an opportunity to promise 192 new beds and a new maternity unit for Logan Hospital, along with 130 new beds and an expanded emergency department at Caboolture Hospital and an expansion of Ipswich Hospital.
• The LNP’s pitch at the Gold Coast continued last week with $500 million of promised funding for a “second M1” between Nerang and Stapylton.