Queensland election minus nine days

ReachTEL takes a journey into the mind of the One Nation voter, and finds the party posing a strong challenge in two conservative regional seats.

A bit of confusion surrounding the ReachTEL poll that appeared in the Sunday Mail, which asked about voting intention only as a “filter” for identifying One Nation supporters, and has not published the numbers. Sky News reported an LNP lead of 52-48 from the poll, but it is hard to say what this is based on. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 3435, but if I understand it correctly, only the 700 or so One Nation-voting respondents would then have completed the survey. Nonetheless, the poll has some interesting results, suggesting the One Nation voter base to be engorged with LNP deserters who intend to preference their old party, and have a surprisingly strong expectation that One Nation will be in government with it after the election.

• Asked how they voted in 2015, 45.7% said the LNP, compared with 21.1% for Katter’s Australian Party and just 19.8% for Labor.

• Only 11% anticipated major party majority government after the election, with 67.2% expecting One Nation would govern in coalition with the LNP (understandings of the term “coalition” perhaps being imprecise for some), and 21.7% expecting they would do so with Labor.

• Given one pick out of seven on a most important issues list, 34.4% chose managing immigration, with job creation and crime and antisocial behaviour next on 17% apiece.

• A forced preference question on who respondents favoured in last year’s presidential election had Donald Trump favoured over Hillary Clinton by 69.9% to 30.1%.

• Respondents self-reported as being both well educated, with an above-par 31.7% with university degrees, and low income, with fully 41.2% reporting an annual household income of less than $50,000. One Nation’s large share of 65-plus supporters are leaning on the scales here, with 63.8% rating themselves in the lowest bracket. Over half of those under 50 put their household income at $75,000 or higher.

• On preferences, 74.5% said they would favour the LNP compared with 25.5% for Labor.

In other happy developments for the ReachTEL share price:

Fairfax has a statewide ReachTEL poll for parental advocacy organisation The Parenthood, and this one really does have the LNP leading 52-48. This is both consistent with ReachTEL’s own earlier polling and inconsistent with that of other pollsters, which have given the slight advantage to Labor. Primary votes of LNP 30.8%, Labor 30.4%, One Nation 16.4% and Greens 8.1%, but this presumably doesn’t exclude an undecided component of 8% or so. UPDATE: Full results from GhostWhoVotes, showing primary votes of Labor 32.7%, LNP 32.2%, One Nation 17.7% and Greens 9.5%.

Fairfax reports further ReachTEL polling from the regional seats of Gympie and Callide, conducted privately for an unidentified concern. The results show One Nation slightly ahead of the LNP on the primary vote in Gympie and slightly behind in Callide, but set to benefit on preferences in the latter case from Katter’s Australian Party, whose candidate was on 10%.

Other news:

• The LNP is directing preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor in 53 of the 61 seats in which it is running, the exceptions being Buderim, Logan, Mudgeeraba, Nicklin, Coomera, Scenic Rim, Stretton, Toohey and Thuringowa.

• Sportsbet has been steadfast in offering $1.75 for Labor and $2 for the LNP, but Ladbrokes has now returned the LNP to very slight favouritism. Where Labor was on $1.83 and the LNP $1.95 at the start of the week, now the numbers are reversed. Ladbrokes has shortened the Greens in South Brisbane from $3 to $2.50, with Labor out from $1.30 to $1.36. One Nation leader Steve Dickson remains a slight in Buderim, despite having been compelled this week to “clarify” his claim that grade four students were being instructed in masturbation and the use of sex toys by the Safe Schools program.

• Labor courted favour with voters in Maryborough last week by enlisting Downer EDI to repair defective rolling stock manufactured in India, at a cost of $150 million, and promising Queensland’s trains would be built in the city in future. The Premier’s language concerning the defective trains, which were purchased under the Newman government, drew a rebuke from the India Australia Exchange Forum.

• A $679 million health spending announcement last week gave Labor an opportunity to promise 192 new beds and a new maternity unit for Logan Hospital, along with 130 new beds and an expanded emergency department at Caboolture Hospital and an expansion of Ipswich Hospital.

• The LNP’s pitch at the Gold Coast continued last week with $500 million of promised funding for a “second M1” between Nerang and Stapylton.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

38 comments on “Queensland election minus nine days”

  1. Being a PBer who lives on the Gold Coast, the last bullet point in William’s thread header caught my eye.
    $500 million for a second motorway (with 2 or 3 lanes in each direction?) between Nerang and Stapylton is unrealistic.
    The road corridor for this ‘future’ road or most of it exists or is protected. There are bridges over the Nerang and Albert rivers and sundry other smaller waterways as well as the need to provide grade separation with existing roadways and interchanges with significant regional roadways like Nerang to Southport Road, Smith Street Motorway, etc, etc, soft soils to deal with for significant portions of the route, etc, etc. Typical motorway issues but definitely not cheap.
    The proposed completion of 6 lanes (from 4 existing lanes) of 5.7 km of the M1 between Mudgeeraba and Reedy Creek has an estimated cost of $180 million (reference https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/Projects/Name/P/Pacific-Motorway-M1-upgrade-Mudgeeraba-to-Varsity-Lakes). Note that the southbound bridges over Mudgeeraba Creek and its overflow have already been widened and the southbound carriageways from Mudgeeraba to Robina Parkway upgraded to 3 lanes.
    I call BS on a cost of $500 million.

  2. TBlurker
    On recent project costs in Australia urban freeways cost an average of $21 million per lane km. So for example 4 lanes x 30km x $21M = $2.4 billion.

    So your call of bullshit sounds right.

  3. Socrates,
    Another interesting observation about the proposed project:
    The (Stage 2) light rail extension between the heavy rail station at Helensvale and Napper Road appears to have been constructed on the land reserved for the future motorway (that is what it looks like out of the window of the train that I catch whenever I go up to Brisbane).
    Humm – I wonder if the LNP propose to demolish the as yet commissioned light rail permanent way to build the new road.
    Another Qld LNP ill conceived thought bubble maybe.

  4. TB Lurker
    Light rail systems take up a lot less space than freeways. I dare say they could still fit in a two or four lane facility alongside.

    I would ask the other question – why build a freeway immediately adjacent to the LRT you have just built, duplicating its function? An LRT has the capacity of a six lane freeway. It would make far more sense to further expand the LRT. Of course, that does not suit the financial interests of those who own road building companies, who incidentally feature prominently in the list of donors to the LNP!

  5. Socrates,
    I have no skin in the game, these are just my observations.
    The uncommissioned light rail extension terminates at Helensvale HR station – an initiative of the current ALP State Government for the Commonwealth Games. It is the extension of the LR from Southport located in the east and other coastal locales further southwards including Surfers Paradise extending down to Broadbeach currently. The LR currently operates as far west as the new University Hospital at Parkwood.
    The motorway will continue south to an interchange with Nerang-Southport Road just east of Nerang HR station and close to Metricon Stadium (the home ground of the Gold Coast AFL team).
    The HR is currently being upgraded from single line working to parallel tracks between Helensvale Station and Coomera Station – another initiative of the current ALP State Government .
    Google maps hasn’t been updated so I can’t judge if there is enough space to fit the LNP promised motorway into the reasonably confined corridor.
    As you know, car is still king in SE Qld and it likely won’t be a toll road (the LNP hordes living on the Gold Coast would not accept that outcome I would guess) so it is just the LNP promising an alternate motorway/route when the current M1 grinds to a halt during a significant accident – which it frequently does.

  6. TbL
    Yes for the M1 issue there is no easy solution. More services on the heavy rail link to Brisbane would make sense, though that also requires a capacity solution all the way from Beenleigh to the CBD. Without the cross river tunnel that won’t be happening.

  7. TbL
    You reminded me of something Labor should be reminding Qld voters of. The last court case relating to the antics of Ali Newman and his 40 Thieves just wound up the other day. Investors will recover about 5% of the $2.2 billion lost on Airport Link as a result.
    http://www.afr.com/business/infrastructure/roads/tollway-lawsuits-hit-end-of-the-road-as-arup-settles-22b-airport-link-claim-20171115-gzlv17

    And people wonder why I question freeway projects!

  8. Obviously lnp is worried they will drop seats to labor on the gold coast and some parts of BRISBANE……..so go ahead with unfunded promises

  9. Socrates @ #9 Thursday, November 16th, 2017 – 1:37 pm

    TbL
    You reminded me of something Labor should be reminding Qld voters of. The last court case relating to the antics of Ali Newman and his 40 Thieves just wound up the other day. Investors will recover about 5% of the $2.2 billion lost on Airport Link as a result.
    http://www.afr.com/business/infrastructure/roads/tollway-lawsuits-hit-end-of-the-road-as-arup-settles-22b-airport-link-claim-20171115-gzlv17

    And people wonder why I question freeway projects!

    Socrates,
    Big engineering fees seem to equal big risks. $100 M from Arup plus $288 M from AECOM plus some share of $121 M; no wonder engineering PI insurance is so dear.
    Do you work in the rail sector?

  10. Wondering if anybody of the experts has looked into ON preferences and they might in practice flow through to the seats in question. In particular what might happen to the assumed 75% flow to the LNP when the ON how to vote card has a sitting LNP member last.

  11. The marginal seats where there is a sitting lnp member and ON is standing are: Aspley, Mt Omaney, Mansfield, Burdekin, Toowoomba North, Redlands and Whitsundays. Of these Mt Omaney, Burdekin and Mansfield are already notionally Alp because of the redistribution (although I’m not sure Burdekin should really be thought so).

  12. From the leadership debate (Sky News Twitter): 60% more likely to vote Labor, 12% LNP, 10% PHON and 18% undecided. Didn’t see much of the actual forum, but from what I did, Annastacia put in a good performance and came off as empathetic.

    Honestly, I still have no idea why Dickson was there.

  13. Tim Nicholls would not answer if they would govern with onp help…… such as confidence and supply
    also said coal fired power station would be funded by the private sector…. whom? commercial in confidence

    it appears that Alp can win seats in Brisbane and the gold coast….. if yes….. then probable alp govt

  14. Further to the Reachtel/Australia Institute poll posted by Ghost Who Votes, Sky has info on attitudes to a loan for Adani:

    Only 21 per cent of Queenslanders support a $1 billion loan for the Adani coal mine, new polling shows.

    The Australia Institute/Reachtel poll revealed that 63 per cent of Queenslanders think that the funding should go towards other projects.

    Six per cent believed that there should be no projects, while 10 per cent were unsure.

    There has been support for parties to veto the Adani loan, with 61 per cent of people saying they believe that Queensland Liberal leader Tim Nicholls should promise to stop the loan at the forum.

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/state/2017/11/16/polling-shows-unpopularity-of-adani.html

  15. @KB

    It’s the leading story on courier mail and brisbanetimes.com. Also reported on Australian. Won’t make much difference but good for momentum in the campaign.

  16. One Nation traditionally has an awful ground game which means there HTVs usually don’t do much. But they might be more organised this year and also the availability of online HTVs might mitigate it a bit. Unfortunately (?) I’m in inner Brisbane and PHON isn’t running here so I’ve got no new of they’ve improved the ground game this time around

  17. Mick – no, I just got it off the twitter feed.

    Results are encouraging, but it’s all still very much wait and see. The question from the truck driver would be somewhat representative of the electoral mood.

  18. Apparently that split was from undecideds (from the Sky News forum). So that Premier did very well. However it was apparently a city heavy audience, which explains the relatively low PHON favour for Queensland to some extent but not the appalling LNP rate. Nicholls must have failed to impress a lot.

  19. TbL
    I have worked on engineering design for road and rail projects. For urban freight roads are still best. But high land costs mean that most urban commuter road projects, especially freeways, have become uneconomic. Hence we need to shift to building more rail projects. But that does not suit incumbent vested interests who make money building roads. The rail projects are actually more labour intensive, so I wish Labor would tone down the enthusiasm for road projects. They only make sense in rural areas or near ports.

  20. Socrates @ #28 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 11:05 am

    TbL
    I have worked on engineering design for road and rail projects. For urban freight roads are still best. But high land costs mean that most urban commuter road projects, especially freeways, have become uneconomic. Hence we need to shift to building more rail projects. But that does not suit incumbent vested interests who make money building roads. The rail projects are actually more labour intensive, so I wish Labor would tone down the enthusiasm for road projects. They only make sense in rural areas or near ports.

    Socrates,
    My gig is urban water and wastewater investigation and design as well as construction review.
    This proposed future M1 duplication is the motorway that the Wayne Goss ALP government lost four seats over in the 1995 election. I understand that most of the road reserve is owned by the Qld Government. Some overbridges built in the past have been constructed longer to suit the mythical motorway. There was a pair of overbridges built in the upgrade of the Gold Coast Highway years ago just west of Coombabah Creek for the mythical motorway.
    The road is in the City of Gold Coast’s transportation plan. The Council is preserving its alignment carefully other than the LR clash so who knows.
    The Premier in electioneering mode has just announced today plans to construct three more stations on the HR to complement the Cross River rail project; Merrimac, Helensvale North and Pimpama (all warranted in my book).
    I think the second north-south motorway will proceed – but as to its timing – who knows.

  21. I’m not sure how the election will go but I think that Tim Nichols is Labor’s best asset. I’m not a fan of a totally negative campaign but keeping the focus on Tim will probably be effective.

  22. The latest Reachtel poll has LNP 52 to ALP 48 approx. Both Ladbrokes and Sportsbet have odds favouring the LNP. I wonder if in the light (should I say dark) of Nicholl’s hapless performance and any follow-up polls whether this might change?
    Nicholls is the weakest link. The Party tried to get rid of him but stuffed that up. Maybe the plotters were right in the first place……

  23. TBL
    If they have the land corridor then a second road might make sense. But not a motorway just a connective arterial to complete missing local links.

  24. I dunno if this will have any real effect in itself. Sky News doesn’t exactly draw a big audience even for its most popular shows. And the papers don’t go over all the issues.

    The more outright reactionaries on Twitter were already brushing it off as city elites last night too. Which is kind of doofy since the super wealthy areas are seats for oh say Tim Nicholls.

    The strong Labor areas are blue collar , public servants and yuppies (particular those who can afford to rent but not buy in the more expensive inner city areas).

  25. kevjohnno, Onebobsworth – What I am really hanging out for on Monday is a poll with some seat projections which concludes that the LNP are headed for minority Government with One Nation.

    Just give me a headline “LNP and One Nation set to rule Qld”.

    And on the same page a cartoon of Pauline Hanson, puppeteer, pulling the strings on a Tim Nicholls doll.

  26. I have tried to model some preference flows, but am finding it very difficult, what with not being too sure what % of votes ONP might obtain statewide, let alone in any particular seat, how well their voters will follow the ONP how to vote cards (which I can not find online and thus can not check what there preferences even are in seats without sitting members), the redistribution since the last election, and the change from OPV to CPV.

    What is evident however is that the ‘new’ (redistributed) margins in the guide are overstating what the margins probably are (or would have been) from last time if held under CPV.

    For example in Noosa the old margin was 8.6%, the redistributed margin 6.8%, and based on the change to CPV from OPV I estimate now about 3.4% (LNP v Green)

    This will bring more seats into ‘play’ then might seem to be the case by just looking at the pendulum based on OPV.

  27. I’d expect a higher than usual base flow to the LNP of PHON preferences since it’s make up seems significantly more conservative this time (probably 60-65%).

    But PHON still seem to be highly disorganized, they are literally the only party in the state that weren’t expecting an election soon (I don’t know how you miss the fact that both Labor and Liberals were campaigning in New Farm, a month before the election was called but they managed it).

    That might not be a good thing for Labor though, since PHON is mostly putting sitting members last (there’s like 4 exceptions) and while the ALP (and independent allies) have more to lose from that but with the numbers so close the break from that would actually be well under 60% , especially since PHON isn’t running at all in some of the Inner City labor strong holds.

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