Same-sex marriage survey: 61.6 yes, 38.4 no

And the winner is …

So there you have it. Below is a tool for exploring the results at divisional level according to a range of electoral and demographic criteria. Take your pick from the drop down menu, and you will get divisional “yes” votes recorded on the vertical axis, and their results for the relevant indicator on the vertical axis. Most of these are self-explanatory, with the exception of “One Nation support index”. This equals the division’s 2016 Senate vote for One Nation divided by the party’s overall Senate vote in that state, multiplied by 100. So an electorate will score 100 if its One Nation vote is exactly equal to the state average; it will score 200 if it’s double; 50 if it’s half; and so forth. This is to prevent the party’s across-the-board high results in Queensland from spoiling the effect. “Finished school” is measured as a percent of the 15-plus population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,326 comments on “Same-sex marriage survey: 61.6 yes, 38.4 no”

  1. caf @ #1299 Thursday, November 16th, 2017 – 10:22 pm

    Our Government likes to run the politico-legal fiction that the refugees on Manus Island and Nauru are the responsibility of the PNG and Nauran Governments respectively.

    Jacinda Ardern should call their bluff and go directly to the PNG Government and offer to take the Manus internees off their hands.

    Dead right.
    Australia cannot simultaneously claim the AS are the responsibility of PNG and veto any going to NZ.

  2. Ides of March @ #1293 Thursday, November 16th, 2017 – 6:10 pm

    So, is Turbull still PM? Ive been out of the news cycle since early afternoon.

    Apparently so, but …

    today saw;

    – only 4 Government Senators showed up to witness Smith introduce his bill;

    -while more than that made the effort to side with Bernardi and Divided Nation to vote on stopping Medicare funding for certain abortions;

    -Michaelia Cash referred to a new Senate hearing to answer questions about the AWU raids;

    -The Potato rubbished NZ proposal to help those on Manus and Nauru and warned against people trying to give them any hope;

    -RWNJs continue to talk about watering down anti-discrimination laws as the LGBTI community’s rightful and fair payment for being given the Right to marry.

    All said a relatively successful and positive day for Malcolm and caps off probably his best week in about a month! 🙂

  3. Ides:

    MT still PM. But apparently Bernardi executed some kind of muck-up day effort in the Senate that had several coalition ministers scrambling.

    So to sum up, the usual chaos and dysfunction we’ve become accustomed to with Turnbull’s govt.

  4. citizen @ #1296 Thursday, November 16th, 2017 – 6:14 pm

    According to this article, Anning is still officially a PHON senator because neither he nor Hanson has officially notified the senate clerk or president.

    Yet another clown show.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/fraser-anning-still-sitting-as-a-one-nation-senator/news-story/02fb94649cb95f7535064c0182f8efad

    I saw a picture today of him sitting in the back row behind the other Divided Nation Senators and thought it was bit cruel that they hadn’t reallocated him a new position.

    So that explains that. 🙂

  5. PB
    “Could gender imbalance be remedied by gender fluidity?”

    It can and there is at least one animal which takes hermaphrodite form and can go to either sex depending on there being a sex imbalance. It’s some kind of slug though.

  6. only 4 Government Senators showed up to witness Smith introduce his bill

    Really? Only 4?

    OMG but we are so poorly served by the representatives sitting in our federal parliament claiming to be our govt.

  7. Anglican church in WA has talked of splitting around a metro/country divide. Here’s the country viewpoint:

    Bishop Nelson said the church should not stray from its traditional beliefs.

    “I think that’s a very harmful position because in the long run, what you’re saying is what determines the way we’re going to practice our Christianity is what people around think,” he said.

    “You just then become a social club and if that’s all the church and Christianity is, well I can think of better things to do than that.

    “That’s really a position I think is untenable.

    “It’s not my position and not the majority of Anglicans not just in Australia, but I’d suggest across the world.”

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-16/same-sex-marriage-yes-vote-threatens-to-split-anglican-church/9159236?pfmredir=sm&sf173368951=1&smid=Page%3A+ABC+Perth-Facebook_Organic&WT.tsrc=Facebook_Organic

    I’m not religious but in all these religious folk whingeing is the absence of the sentiment of tolerance and that community sentiment evolves over time and religion needs to move with it if it is to remain relevant.

  8. With all this section 44 stuff going on, have people forgotten that Malcolm said* he would not lead a minority government, prior to the July 2016 election? What is he doing now, then?

    (*if my memory is correct)

  9. Malcolm’s perfectly sweet, ask Sean Kelly of The Monthly:

    My feeling about Turnbull is that he is not great in situations of obvious, immediate pressure; see the last election campaign, or his reaction on election night, or his show of temper recently when challenged on various citizenship matters. On the other hand, it seems to me that what he likes most is to surprise people. He is quite happy working quietly on a solution, letting the pressure slowly build before emerging into the spotlight – not when it is demanded of him, but on his own terms, sometimes when the pressure has in fact abated – to loudly declare his ingenious and unexpected idea; see the American deal on refugees, or the announcement of an early budget and an early election.

    “I guess it wouldn’t have happened without my pushing. There was a lot of opposition to having this survey. Crossbenchers, the Labor Party, even people on my own side that didn’t want to have it.”

    You can see that in Turnbull’s eyes this is not just a win but an out-of-the-box win, a victory that surprised his opponents, that nobody else would have been capable of delivering. In other words, his sweet spot.

    “I put my faith in the goodwill, in the common sense of Australians and they responded responsibly, with love, and with respect. So they put their arms around same-sex couples and said we respect you, we love you, your committed relationship is worthy of the same respect as ours.”

    That was all delivered on Channel Nine [$]. But the PM was also on Channel Seven this morning, and on a bunch of FM stations. This was exactly what he should have been doing. He spent time during the marriage campaign making sure that FM listeners knew exactly where he stood on marriage. Despite his earlier refusal to commit to campaigning, that is precisely what he did. That was the right thing to do. It was also savvy, ensuring that many Australians knew that Bill Shorten wasn’t the only leader of a major political party in favour of equality. And today, Turnbull went back to celebrate the victory, and to claim credit.

    In the past, the PM has probably enjoyed basking like this a little too much, which you can tell from the fact that his government usually doesn’t take long after a successful announcement to make an avoidable mistake.

    But that hasn’t happened yet, and let’s for a moment imagine it won’t. In that case, what you have is a prime minister who has, at least briefly, found his happy place; and at the same time is seen in a more favourable light by the political establishment, including his own MPs.

    If he can ride those elements into the next sitting of parliament, 11 days away, then he could yet deliver the marriage bill he clearly wants to, one that does not bend too far to the conservatives – which would in turn give him a second victory.

    The other major issue to be dealt with in the next parliamentary fortnight is the disclosure of MPs’ citizenship histories. Right now that is a massive danger to the PM, bringing the threat of several by-elections.

    Labor is vulnerable here, too. Bill Shorten continues to say that he is confident in his MPs, and that he has legal advice on his side, but by now there is not a person in the country who will accept the proclamations of a politician that they know anything about citizenship or that their legal advice is watertight. If Turnbull manages to refer as many Labor MPs as Liberal to the High Court – or more, given two by-elections for Liberal MPs have already been set – the pressure on the PM will ease a little.

    Finally, you have the Bennelong by-election. It’s impossible to know what will happen, but there is at least a chance that if other things are going well for Turnbull, that will affect votes, helping to deliver a victory for the government.

    Will all this happen smoothly and without incident? Will the government manage to avoid avoidable mistakes? Will the gods of political chaos hold their thunder? Judging by the rest of this year, absolutely not. But… it’s possible.

    And if that happens, Turnbull will have shocked us all. Exactly how he likes it. Which could make the Turnbull of 2018 a very different proposition.

  10. Genius. This plan of Turnbull’s was already in place back in 2015 when he criticised the idea. sucking us all in. His claim that by having a plebiscite it will keep the issue live and clouding the governments agenda. He showed us all. genius.

  11. The Heinous Hacking of Christopher’s Computer story has gone very quiet.

    It magically went quiet immediately after Bernardi raised his concerns about the security aspects arising out of a hacker’s ease of access to the minister’s messages.

    At that instant it suddenly became a real possibility that Christopher’s claim could and should be tested and investigated by the AFP.

    What possible reason could Christopher have had for making the hacker claim and then not vigorously following up with a demand for an official police investigation? He is a Very Important Man, after all, whose computer would be the means of communicating many, many State Secrets.

    A less generous soul than myself could speculate on several possibilities.

    Christopher, the mischevious little monkey, reminds me so much of Bart Simpson.

  12. “You can see that in Turnbull’s eyes this is not just a win but an out-of-the-box win, a victory that surprised his opponents, that nobody else would have been capable of delivering. In other words, his sweet spot.”

    What a surprise, the survey was similar to what polls have been saying for a few years. And what a victory, he’s delivered Australia exactly where it would be if the L-NP he leads had simply allowed a conscience vote in the first place.

  13. Fulvio Sammut (AnonBlock)
    Thursday, November 16th, 2017 – 8:10 pm
    Comment #1316

    The Heinous Hacking of Christopher’s Computer story has gone very quiet.

    And the potentially stupid thing about it, if the hacking is not true, as the postal thingy shows, we basically couldn’t give a f@#k!

    But we don’t like lies.

  14. Why on earth would you demand a police investigation of a Twitter account, who’s password is almost certainly shared with staffers (making it less secure than most average people’s Twitter accounts) being hacked ?

  15. Well, Bernardi and Shorten had serious security concerns over it. I presume they obtained expert IT advice on the issue before raising it in Parliament.

    Ask them.

  16. Fulvio Sammut @ #1322 Thursday, November 16th, 2017 – 8:50 pm

    Julie would send them an extra few hundred million dollars to accept one more asylum seeker.

    That’s part of the problem, they’re happy to get into bed with anyone if it serves their purposes.

    First action before sanctions should be to freeze all international bank accounts related to Government members, Party officials and military officers.

    I don’t know what the Cambodian people did in their past lives to deserve this?

    First Pol Pot and now Han Sen. 🙁

  17. BiGD

    It’s gotten ‘bad’ now.

    The Press was bad enough but once they start ‘dissolving’ the Opposition for planning to ‘topple the government’.

    What are ‘oppositions’ expected to be planning to do one year out from an election if not planning to topple the government?

    I assume the Government would approve if their main opposition had a secret plan to lose the next election.

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