Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.
Speaking of Trump, it’s heartening to see his administration tackling the issues that really matter:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-17/trump-to-allow-hunters-to-import-african-elephant-body-parts/9160210
This part jumped out at me:
Oh, okay. They’re doing it to *help* the elephants!
Some interesting observations on the current Manus issue.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11944627
Michael
Good to see the NZ Herald calls a spade a spade.
Poroti
Minor point of correction. Its not the NZ Herald. Its an opinion piece from a uni lecturer.
And I don’t expect the Trump saga to be of interest to many here. Reason why I usually direct my comments to those who I know are following it.
As c@t suggests, if not interested in an issue, scroll by. So damn easy
Asha Leu @ #49 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 8:31 am
Trickle down support for elephants. ☠
The blood of the current generation will nurture the next.
You know it makes sense, somewhere (over the rainbow).
If I find a post uninteresting I simply scroll past. No dramas.
I really don’t know where this “throwing his weight around” accusation comes from.
I mostly lurk nowadays, post relatively eclectically, rarely and briefly (especially compared to before), have no moderating privileges, don’t accuse other posters of being New haters, homophobes or mental illness.
Yet, on these infrequent occasions, PB’s resident Noisy Minahs are almost always first to dive bomb, chirping in with a snarky comment about my character, born of a couple of imagined and way overblown slights, on another blog, from 4 years ago.
I’ve heard about “big haters”, but you do get sick of being harassed by other posters with old festering grudges to settle (and keep re-settling at just about every opportunity).
I go out of my way not to engage with these people, except in the most indirect manner possible, while trying to keep relatively on-topic. Yet their antagonism blinds them to this and they see malicious intent everywhere, to the point where I feel forced to defend myself against accusations of sexual and racial prejudice that I do not have and have not expressed (bar what seems to be deliberate misinterpretation).
I was told yesterday that I didn’t choose my words wisely in a post, and thus had no right to complain if people (the usual suspects) piled onto me as a megalomaniacal, antisemitic homophobe, throwing my “weight” around, influencing a totally imaginary gaggle of worshippers who believe every word I write.
There are no such followers. There are no worshipping apostles spreading the Bushfire Gospel. Nor do I seek them or encourage this idea. I’m trying to be a fairly peaceful poster who occasionally feels strongly enough to scribble a few words on subjects that mean something to me. There’s no need for the head-kicking or the mobbing Minah bird reaction. I don’t have a “camp” or cadres, as any objective analysis would discover.
To my critics, it’s all in your own imaginations. You make a sport of hounding people off this blog, backing each other up with sniggers, misinterpreting everything the target (I’m not the only one, by far) says, writing cute little “personal messages” to each other that happen to be glaringly public.
The pathetic thing about it all is that when there’s no ready regular victim to hand, you just as easily go hammer and tongs at your own fair weather friends. Any port in a storm, I guess, as long as there’s someone to condemn and defame.
Yet you queue up to accuse others of trying to take over, or otherwise dominate, using their imaginary legions of slavish admirers as “proof” of their malintent. The irony in that is pretty rich.
There’s some fantastic stuff written here – interesting and thought-provoking – but (and I’m pretty sure I’m not alone in thinking this) the maintenance of long-forgotten, petty personal vendettas by an uber-group of self-styled thought invigilators detracts mightily from the amenity of the blog and its potential as a platform for interesting discussion.
This is the longest post I’ve made for a while, and the last on this topic. Normal service will be resumed forthwith
Cue Minah birds…
victoria:
I find the trainwreck that is the Trump presidency fascinating (along with US Politics in general), and regularly trawl through news sites for the latest updates. But I prefer to read about it from sources that are actually reputable and don’t give off the vibe of being the left-wing equivalent of InfoWars. It’s the same reason I don’t use Independent Australia to read up on Aussie politics.
Thank You for all the constructive comments directed to me
I leave it to BK to cover all the traditional US mainstream items ( NYT, WaPo etc ) …… Confessions jumps in an adds extras from those sites as well as the fabulous Bill Maher links … and Guytaur deals with many other items and Victoria adds her insightful comments on all matters with the Trump imbroglio
I try to just add some “alternative’ views from some non-traditional sites that offer up some more ‘colourful’ views as well as from some civilian reporters on twitter who often have material weeks ahead of the traditional MSM sites ( understandably as they need more scrupulous checking for defamation etc )
I have however taken your criticism – both constructive and destructive on board – and will try to edit/precie what I post to smaller volumes ……
And for those of us who are interested and concerned that the USA have elevated the worst American crooks to the highest positions in all of the globe, and the ramifications it has for us all. It doesn’t stop other issues being discussed on this blog. So what is the big deal. Scroll on by.
PhoenixRed
You keep doing what you do. It is very much appreciated. 😀
Asha Leu
It is fascinating and quite worrying. The US is in a very precarious state. My hope is that justice will prevail, and a movie is all we have to concern ourselves with going forward. Cos a great movie it will make.
Whereas the dual citizenship saga, well kinda boring by comparison.
Lol!
Morning all.
Thanks BK and PhoenixRed for your contributions. I enjoy PhoenixRed’s links, although like with BK’s don’t always have time to read them all.
I agree with Victoria. If people find it annoying then scroll past. For mine, the endless energy wars was not only highly repetitive but got nowhere. Scroll wheel working overtime then.
My advice to those who are bored with the Trump saga to do the same.
Right, well I had to look up ‘invigilator’.
BB
As I was the one who said you did not use your words carefully my response is you need to go have a hard look at yourself.
That was not having a go at you. That was giving you the benefit of the doubt. That was saying maybe you did not intend to be a homophobe.
Trying to go the high dudgeon route does you no favours.
The legislation hasn’t passed parliament yet and already we are getting this kind of commentary:
https://thewest.com.au/opinion/opinion-emphatic-yes-result-advances-australia-fair-ng-b88660676z
The Greens party has been pushing for a sovereign wealth fund for many years.
2011: http://www.smh.com.au/national/greens-to-push-for-sovereign-savings-fund-20111219-1p2in.html
2012: https://adam-bandt.greensmps.org.au/articles/manufacturing-taskforce-backs-greens-call-sovereign-wealth-fund-inquiry
Hi Sonar,
According to WB’s last pre-election post, both Essential and Newspoll had the TPP at L-NP 50.5-49.5.
The last Bludgertrack before the election had a projection of L-NP 80 seats, ALP 66, OTH 4.
(From memory KB had a very similar projection, except L-NP on 79)
https://www.pollbludger.net/2016/07/01/reachtel-51-49-coalition-essential-research-50-5-49-5/
The actual seat result you can extrapolate from the Pollbludger sidebar, was L-NP 76, ALP 69.
Bludgertrack did much better than the pundits, who mostly expected Turnbull to romp home. (It may have been their confidence that gave Bludgertrack a very slight lean to the L-NP).
victoria says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 8:57 am
And for those of us who are interested and concerned that the USA have elevated the worst American crooks to the highest positions in all of the globe, and the ramifications it has for us all
*******************************************************
EXACTLY Victoria – the fact that US persons, even campaign members, MAY have colluded/conspired with a foreign nation to fraudulently install a President – whose office affects not only the US but the whole world – and THAT man MAY be totally and mentally unsuited to the most powerful office in the world is of great concern ….
victoria:
I’m finding the Republicans imposing their policies into legislation also fascinating. Their tax bill for eg has almost exactly the same parameters as the one the Kansas governor imposed on that state some 5 or so years ago. Predictably the state took in less revenue meaning it had less money to spend and is now a basket case.
Trickle down economics simply doesn’t work, and there are many live, failed experiments across the country testament to this fact.
I want to thank everyone for posting links to all sorts of interesting, and sometimes uninteresting to me, topics. I find my interest ebbs and flows on any given topic.
And the interesting, and sometimes uninteresting discussions (to me), keep me well abreast of the topics du jour.
So, keep up the good work everyone.
Neither did Malcolm ‘use his office to change the law’– or ME would have been legislated months ago.
Phoenix, what I meant was you don’t seem to express much here in your own words. I’m positive you’ve got plenty so say, and plenty of interesting context to deliver, so why not present it from a more personal perspective? You do yourself a disservice by posting mostly the words of others without comment.
MayneReport: This is a pretty dodgy intrusion by Eli Greenblat and The Oz – should’t publish pix of an MP’s home. pic.twitter.com/XtahYGWUmQ
g
Yes, but does it have a hole-in-the wall for au pairs to crouch in?
@ Asha Leu, @Question.
Thank you for your responses.
And this image yesterday of Treasury Secretary and his wife (yes, his wife!), posing with a newly minted batch of $1 notes is just so much ‘let the peasants eat cake!’ it isn’t funny.
Master of the self-interested, self-justifying post at it again.
His post, with it’s too cute by half characterisations of other posters here, mainly me, sounds oh so flip and fantastic. Yes? We can all snigger at guytaur and myself, mainly, being cast as Nosy Minah Birds. Oh, he’s sooo witty, isn’t he?
Yet what the verbose post fails to address, is the elephant in the room. That, yes, he did lob a verbal hand grenade against Phoenix Red into the blog first thing this morning, and, yes, he did throw his weight around by suggesting, no not even suggesting, but attempting to embarrass PR into submission by smearing his contributions with a nasty swipe at the sources of them.
Bushfire Bill can attempt to smear shit all over me as well, in his, ‘no names, no pack drill, a nod’s as good as a wink to Poll Bludger, kind of way, but it’s not going to work. I am in no way embarrassed by his pathetic attempt at a smear of me that he has just posted. I’ve seen and heard it all before. It didn’t work then, and it’s not going to work now.
What I do think IS obvious, to me anyway, but then I have an axe to grind, or so Bushfire Bill thinks in his tiny little mind, is that since Poll Bludger severed it’s ties to crikey and made a successful relaunch as an independent blog, and going by the lacklustre nature of his own blog, ‘The Pub’, so I have been told, ‘Bushfire Bill’ is suffering from Relevance Deprivation Syndrome and has determined to cast this blog in his own image. Just like it was in the good old days when everyone used to hang off his every word and description of his incontinent, dying dogs.
Well, sorry, but I am not blinded by that light, and I will continue to contribute to this blog as I see fit. I certainly won’t attempt to humiliate posters into submission, as if what I say, goes.
I will certainly question what others post, if I believe I have a different point of view, or I can challenge with verifiable evidence. And then, if all I get back is abuse and denigration, then I will not hold back on returning serve. I will also continue to stand up for those I think are being unjustly targeted.
Because it has happened too often to me, and I decided that I would not be cowed into submission as a result of it. So I will also come to the defence of those that I see it happening to.
Try and humiliate me for doing that, by calling me a ‘Minah bird’, I don’t care. I have survived worse by Bushfire Bill. He’s very good with words that way. I’m just trying to defend Phoenix Red from his unjustified attack this morning.
New Zealand and Our Asylum Seekers: If Jacinda Arden was genuine about taking people from Manus Island surely by now we would have seen press stories about the PNG Govt/Peter O’Neill rebuffing her offers.
I have not seen anything that suggests she has made any serious effort on this with PNG/Peter O’Neill.
The assylum seekers on Manus have become just another ‘negotiating ploy’ in a disagreement about Australian and New Zealander citizens movement between the two countries and the subsequent treatment of each others citizens on settlement.
zoomster:
Plus the only reason we even had a postal survey (not even a binding referendum) was because of Turnbull’s weak leadership and having to appease his party’s numpty wing.
If the survey results had been reversed the commentary would be very different today. But even so, the bills have to pass parliament in order to be enacted.
FWIW
BB I am pleased you are back on Bludger for the following reasons:
1. I would never have known about bootstrapping without your contribution.
2. You are Bludger’s ONLY manufacturer.
3. I enjoy your robust style.
So, thank you and pls keep them coming.
As for the lilliputs, doG created the scroll wheel for a reason.
Quoted by Confessions @9:04AM :… The history books will show that Malcolm Turnbull was the prime minister who secured this achievement.”
It [marriage equality] will have passed in spite of him. He cooperated with the Right to delay and obstruct reform for over two years. Now when the Right have been pretty much proved to be on the wrong side of history, he has decided to jump onto the winning bandwagon and share the credit. Looks like it’s working.
PhoenixRed
Whether we like it or not, Australia is closely allied with the US especially where national security is concerned. Having Its Leader and his cronies being bought and paid for by a foreign adversary is not going to end well.
Despite my huge dislike of Turnbull and Co., I believe they are doing their bit with FVEYS to bring an end to this imbroglio. Wish they would just hurry up!!
Bushfire Bill says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:11 am
Phoenix, what I meant was you don’t seem to express much here in your own words. I’m positive you’ve got plenty so say, and plenty of interesting context to deliver, so why not present it from a more personal perspective? You do yourself a disservice by posting mostly the words of others without comment.
********************************************
Bushfire Bill – I am mindful of the “contacts” these people in the US have – many are extremely professional in all sorts of past or present occupations – be they past political officers , brilliant legal minds who know THEIR system or are in policing and Intelligence – and are constantly being fed UP TO DATE information to their web/twitter site by involved/concerned people all over the world ……. I just try to add THEIR contributions to PB as they can say it much better than me with my limited skills
CTaR1
A healthy dose of scepticism is always advised and the En Zedders are somewhat sorely tried by the Abbott/Turnbull governments’ big bro bullying. Resentment is building across the Detch.
But, balanced against that, Ardern appears to have some fire in the belly. She lacks the experience that has tended to rain cold showers on same.
Fess
Hopefully the people will be disgusted with the Rethugs cutting taxes for the rich.
The values being shown at present are very distasteful. It really does reflect the image of the Treasury Secretary and his wife
Guytaur,
You admit of no possibility that, just perhaps, it was your misinterpretation of my words that caused you to accuse me of being a virtual anti-semite and homophobe. You seem to think that everyone is here to carefully parse what they say and then submit it to the judgement of Guytaur as to whether it’s acceptable politically or socially. If not, then the poster may care to re-phrase so that their comment may sit on the blog, sanitized of taint, with the “Guytaur” stamp of approval.
Perhapsyou should consider your words more carefully before you start accusing others – on the basis of one misread post – of being those awful things.
If you think I’m a Jew hater or some kind of anti-gay campaigner, then just say it. Don’t use the language of slur to level smarmy insinuations and make elliptical suggestions as to correct phrasing.
kezza2 @ #70 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:10 am
Hello Kezza2. ♫ Where
do you go tohave you been, my lovely, ♫when you’re along in your bed :?:♪♫I hope you are well. Be kind to yourself. ☮❤
Kezza2
How are you and you family?
sonar @ #35 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 8:00 am
For past elections, you can check Bludgertrack vs actuals.
For any future election, how can anyone know until we have the actual result to compare with Bludgertrack?
I don’t understand your question.
$800,000 for a 4 bedroom home in inner city Melbourne? That might buy you a cardboard box in inner city Sydney., like the third Yorkshireman: “…You were lucky to have a lake! There were a hundred and fifty of us living in ashoebox in the middle of the road.”
I am happy for all posts. I like Phoenix’s US posts as I am interested in the Trump imbroglio and general watch several US shows daily (esp Maddow) because I think what happens over there affects the whole world. Just I love BK’s morning efforts for local stuff.
Posts I don’t want to read I just scroll past – it’s easy.
BB where did anyone accuse you of antisemitism? Disgraceful slur
vic:
This editorial sums it up perfectly:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/16/opinion/republican-tax-bills-trump.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region®ion=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region&_r=0
At what point to Trump voters clue in finally that he was never going to govern in their interests!
s777
That is just for the tear down and the rebuild, I assume. The block alone would be worth north of $800,000.
BB
My very response at the time did exactly that.
I said put Jew in the place of gay and I think you will disagree with your own post.
I gave you every avenue to revise look at what you wrote and point out that in no way were you saying that just being gay does not mean that means you would exclude straight away.
Instead you come back with more invective iamagining you were under attack.
All I did was point out that as soon as you put jew instead of gay you might view what you posted differently. Instead you doubled down with a personal attack on me instead of looking at what I was pointing out to you.
gt
If this is supposed to be some sort of rule then it’s been very regularly ‘broken’.
Phoenix Red and Bushfire Bill – I enjoy your posts. Please keep doing what you are doing! A bit of argy bargy among friends is good!