BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

A long period of poll trend stasis appears to have ended, with three pollsters reporting a break to Labor.

Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

623 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  2. Fess

    Yep. Take from the poor to pay the rich!!

    Trump voters like him Cos he gives them permission to emulate a value system that is okay to be a bigotted, msogynist, self interested a@@e hole!!

  5. BB

    Given your comments after I posted about Peter Strong I know now you did not intend to be homophobic. All you had to say of course there should be no expectation that if you are gay then you are refused a cake.

    Instead you should have said and made it plain up front that vexatious complainants can’t expect to force people to do things. As always moderation and commonsense wins.

    Its something we agree on. Stop taking an advice to re read what you posted as a personal attack and instead think about the point being made.

    You will note I have not said one word about your comments about Phoenix. So I am not piling on. I am just defending myself here from what I see as an unreasonable attack on me because I pointed out the comment as posted was homophobic.

  6. Steve777

    You can’t buy anything in city for $800,000. In Melbourne, you would need to go at least 20 km out from city to find much for that price. I know you have to go at least 40 km in Sydney to do the same.

  7. abcnewsTas: Devonport Mayor Steve Martin has confirmed his intention to fill the Senate vacancy in place of @JacquiLambie, despite a possible High Court challenge #politas @abcnewsTas #auspol

  9. @bemused,

    Perhaps a rephrasing of my question may have made it simpler for you, but unless I mistook the meaning of this site, I am assuming it is about polling. So I asked what I thought was a simple question. How accurate is Bludgertrack, (as opposed to Roy Morgan/Newspoll/Reachtel) in predicting an election outcome.
    Bludgertrack is 54% for the ALP. IF that predictor is accurate then that is landslide territory……is Bludgertrack an accurate guide to those figures. ?
    (My thanks to those that answered.)

  10. Damn the lack of an edit button. Could somebody, anybody with influence, inform the management of my displeasure, please.
    I typed “alone in your bed”
    and (using previously expressed “fat finger” excuse) what appeared was “along in your bed”.
    Pon my word of honour yer wership, swelp me, no word of a lie the aforegoing, aforesaid is the whole, the complete…

    And as well as that one of my favourite poems is the “Kissing” one which goes:-

    Love’s Philosophy
    By Percy Bysshe Shelley

    The fountains mingle with the river
    And the rivers with the ocean,
    The winds of heaven mix for ever
    With a sweet emotion;
    Nothing in the world is single;
    All things by a law divine
    In one spirit meet and mingle.
    Why not I with thine?—

    See the mountains kiss high heaven
    And the waves clasp one another;
    No sister-flower would be forgiven
    If it disdained its brother;
    And the sunlight clasps the earth
    And the moonbeams kiss the sea:
    What is all this sweet work worth
    If thou kiss not me?

    ♥❥❣♡💋💋

    I know that Poll Bludgers all, true romantics, will instantly see the connection to something, possibly different to everybody (or not).

  11. Keerist, people! Just use the ‘block’ function if you really decide you don’t want to see a particular person’s posts. Don’t descend to this kind of personal sniping.

  12. Regarding publishing photos of pollies houses, it happens all the time.

    Domain (Fairfax’s real estate section) published a story on Kristina Keneally’s new holiday home including the real estate listing. The same article linked to JA’s Bondi apartmemt and Southern Highlands pile. Previously the homes of ABC presenters have come up.

    Knowing The Oz its probably more of an attempt to smear Di Natale with something. Nevermind BW trying his hardest to rehash a dead story.

  17. victoria says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:22 am

    PhoenixRed

    Despite my huge dislike of Turnbull and Co., I believe they are doing their bit with FVEYS to bring an end to this imbroglio. Wish they would just hurry up!!

    ***************************************************************

    Hope Hicks Interview Means Probe ‘Very Far Along,’ Lawyers Say

    Special counsel Robert Mueller is due to interview White House communications director Hope Hicks soon, an indication that the Trump-Russia investigation may be “very far along,” according to senior law professionals.

    http://www.newsweek.com/mueller-trump-hicks-713318

  19. Whisper @ #3 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 1:52 am

    A friend has returned from a visit to PMG, a visit which was in connection to the changes in the refugee accommodation. The impression s/he ( I have to be careful) came away with; is the timing of refugee settlement program’s solution is CLOSELY connected to the next AU federal election.

    This certainly fits into the complete rejection of the NZ offer and comments by the Potato.

    It would just show how utterly contemptible this Government is that it would use vulnerable people in such a political manner.

    If it’s true I hope the story comes out fully well before to expose their contempt.

    I can understand what they are trying to do here, it would allow them to boast that they had left Labor with no one in offshore detention, so if Labor were stupid/cruel enough to start it again they the Libs would take the “moral” high ground.

    Sickening, but a possible positive with the citizenship saga is that they may not be the ones who decide when the next election is.

  21. P1

    I don’t block BB because BB makes many good contributions that are well worth reading.

    In the same way I don’t block you. We disagree at times but I think you are presenting a point of view that is worth reading.

    This is my attitude to all the posters here.

    We are all human we all make mistakes.

    It can be very robust discussion. However if you block someone you can miss some very valuable contributions.

    I can understand why some do with the drip drip drip type of personal comments building up.

    For me personally though I have managed not to have to block anyone. The only ones i have considered doing so were blocked by William for breaking house rules so I have not had to as of yet

  22. On the Republicans’ tax “reform”:

    I’m hoping this might be what finally provokes Trump’s working class base to abandon him, but I’m not especially optimistic.

  24. At first, the Aus Cricket team news had me ready to criticise the selectors (as I have done in the past).

    But then Stuart MacGill comes out and slams the news. Suddenly I feel much better about the selections.

  25. New Matilda are publishing a five part series about the Adani coal mine.

    https://newmatilda.com/2017/11/16/adani-carmichael-coal-mine-introduction-special-five-part-series/

    In this special five-part New Matilda series, researchers from the University of Queensland, along with the Wangan and Jagalingou Traditional Owners Council, and Australian Lawyers for Human Rights look at the ‘who, what, when, where and why’ of the proposed Adani Carmichael coal mine, it’s impact on Traditional Owners, the terrible economics that surround it, and our inexplicable march towards climate oblivion.

    ::::
    The controversial proposed Adani Carmichael coalmine commands diverse media headlines, but the untold story is about Indigenous rights and, in particular, the resistance of Wangan and Jagalingou people to the expropriation of their lands.

    :::
    This five-part series will show what happens when Aboriginal people say no to mining on their Country.

    ::::

    The series will start with the Queensland Government’s role in the relentless pursuit of Wangan and Jagalingou Country for Adani’s mine. Its maneuvers represent this State’s continuation of settler-colonial violence towards Aboriginal people.

  26. sonar @ #107 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:42 am

    @bemused,

    Perhaps a rephrasing of my question may have made it simpler for you, but unless I mistook the meaning of this site, I am assuming it is about polling. So I asked what I thought was a simple question. How accurate is Bludgertrack, (as opposed to Roy Morgan/Newspoll/Reachtel) in predicting an election outcome.
    Bludgertrack is 54% for the ALP. IF that predictor is accurate then that is landslide territory……is Bludgertrack an accurate guide to those figures. ?
    (My thanks to those that answered.)

    Bludgertrack aggregates results from several pollsters, so unless one of those is very accurate and the others considerably less accurate, thereby shifting the aggregate away from the true result, you would normally expect the aggregate to tend to even out any particular biases of individual polls and be more accurate.

    You can look at historical data to see if this is indeed so.

    As for the future outcomes, we will all have to wait.

  31. kezza2 @ #111 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:46 am

    KayJay & vic

    We’re fine, thanks for asking/caring

    Brother’s very lost, though.

    PS. KayJay, I’m never very long in my bed.

    The embarrassment, the shame I have brought on the house of KayJay.

    I thought I was very clever, but when I ask my favourite daughter the magic question – What do I know ❓
    She, being a sweet, innocent child replies, boldly, loudly and brazenly “nothing” ❗

    In an effort to put her in her place I am now giving her youngest son, a lovely tall boy some handy hints about what to say about moi when I have passed away, gone to god, been transmitted or otherwise died.
    I have asked him (grandson) to make up a list of things to say about me, such as:-

    Champion golfer
    Tall and handsome.
    Kind to old ladies and dogs.
    Ran away to sea as a boy and became a pirate rescuing pretty ladies from evil black bearded swine (LNP voters).

    Lie, my boy, I tell him, lie. He being a quiet, reserved lad, pays no attention whatever to me, for which I am grateful. He is showing good sense.

    I am sad about your situation and that of your brother.

    I am in daily contact with my Canberra folk where the story is dire with my sister in law in hospital. Her son deeply distressed trying to help her and on it goes.

    We wish you very well. ☮

  32. daretotread @ #47 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 8:29 am

    Cat

    There is a difference re Manus – that is the responsibility of Australia – the government for which we vote.

    The US stuff is fairly irrelevant to us- sorta like endless links on Mugabe. Who rule is USA is important obviously since it is so big, but endless minutiae of party politics in the USA is pretty useless.

    No I go often to a very good site RCP (conservative leaning slightly) which posts all sorts of articles on US politics (excellent polling data too). However I skip over all the boring stuff on congress races, because they are pretty irrelevant. to us. What is interesting on that site is that the editors make some effort to be unbiased ie a Trump leaning article will be followed by a Democrat leaning one etc. What you realise is that the stuff Phoenix is posting is way off the main stream centre.

    I also skip over the Tax stuff too – I am not voting in USA, and the health care also – not really relevant to me.

    A few points, if I may?

    *RCP is a good and serious site. Information Clearing House, not so much.

    * If ‘the US stuff is fairly irrelevant to us’, why do you, yourself comment on it, sometimes at length?

    Also, I would question that presumption, as, especially now, with the rise of the Religious Right in politics in Australia, it behoves us here to keep a wary eye on America to see what is coming down the sewer pipe at us, as it surely seems to be to my eyes. Not to mention Economic policy, more broadly.

    * Re Manus. Yes it is our country’s problem but, sadly, all we can do is watch on at what is happening there. The Right have got a squirrel grip on proceedings there and are using those people as pawns in their grubby political game with Labor, as Whisper alluded to this morning. Hand-wringing about it cannot change that. Sad, but true, as the saying goes.

  33. guytaur @ #119 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:54 am

    In the same way I don’t block you. We disagree at times but I think you are presenting a point of view that is worth reading.

    Well, you are clearly a better person than I am. I have temporarily blocked you on several occasions when the only alternative seemed to be try and find a way to crawl through the internet, find your computer, reach out of your screen and strangle you! 🙂

    But then I block you for a day or so, calm down and get over it. I would commend the same course of action to a few others here on PB.

  34. I just try to add THEIR contributions to PB as they can say it much better than me with my limited skills

    As I say, you do yourself a disservice.

    The people who write on PoliticsUSA may be experts, but in the end most of it is slanted by opinionation and overly-optimistic expectation that any day now Trump will be deposed. I highly doubt whether it will be a rapid as they seem to think.

    The Right in America is fighting back, perhaps it’s dirty fighting, but it’s real enough.

    For example, there seems to be a campaign to discredit Al Franken, for sins he committed in his past life as a writer of edgy (if not blue) comedy sketches for SNL. Does anyone believe that Franken is a groping sex fiend? If he was one, long ago? And if he was, that he can’t recover from that and atone for it by diligent, if not brilliant, public service in his present role as a US Senator?

    None of this matters to the slur merchants. Of either side. Day-dreaming about tit-for-tat “revelations” that will destroy characters and careers – literally changing the fate of nations – is the least intelligent form of activism, and the most demeaning.

    The #MeToo movement – which started out as a platform for women speaking out about sexual harassment in the entertainment industry (as if we didn’t know) – has morphed into free accusations not just of randy but powerful movie executives abusing their positions, but more and more of outright rape and personal sexual abuse in high political offices.

    And now it’s been taken up by the Right in America (got a run on our local ABC news this morning, too) in a virtual repeat of the way they took up “Fake News”and turned it against their accusers.

    OK, so PoliticsUSA says that this proves such behaviour is not partisan, and that Franken should be condemned for his behaviour in another universe, a long time ago, but there’s the rub. They forced themselves into this corner by braying loudly about the sexual pecadilloes of their right-wing enemies and now comes the blowback. I wonder what they expected of Franken, who made no secret of his past life, his efforts to move on from it and reinvent himself as a serious politician doing excellent work in areas far removed from those PoliticsUSA habitually deals with. It all becomes he-said/she-said in the end, and everyone gets caught up in it, good, bad and indifferent.

    I’m sure glad there wasn’t a photographer around every time I’ve made a goose of myself at a party or after a few drinks. I (and most of us here) have been given the opportunity to learn from our excesses of the past and move on from them. If we’re honest we accept guilt and refuse to make excuses, while keeping in mind the explanations of our behaviour, the better to avoid repeat performances. We try to be less obnoxious citizens in future.

    But photographs are another thing. They are in the perpetual now. They are just a fresh and colorful as they were back on that transport plane when they were taken. There’s talk of Franken being taken to task by the Senate Ethics Committee for something he seems to have done well before he was a senator, or probably had ever thought of being one.

    My personal opinion is that he should move on from it, admit he did something that – upon reflection – was plainly gross, and then challenge his accusers (especially the Fox News ferals, or those pompous Republican “statesmen” mumbling about referrals to committees) to show they never made a mistake, told an off joke, or kissed someone they thought (incorrectly) wouldn’t mind being kissed at any time in their past lives.

    But one thing’s for sure: if you start going public with these types of accusations, you should expect blowback.

    So I wonder, Phoenix, what your take on this might be in the current American political context or accusation and counter-accusation?

  35. Kezza2

    Can understand how your brother feels lost. When someone you are close to is gone, your life is totally rearranged in every way, and takes a lot of adjusting.

    All the very best to you all

  36. sonar @ 9:42

    Were you asking about whether the polls and Bludgertrack are good predictors of an election that could be a year or more away? If that’s your question, the answer is no. The polls can move around a lot over a year.

    For example, Bludgertrack was showing a Labor landslide in early 2015, flipped to showing a big Coalition win in late 2015, and then narrowed to showing a narrow Coalition win in mid 2016. The actual election result was close to the final Bludgertrack numbers, but a long way off the mid-term Bludgertrack numbers.

  39. Get it all out. Have a good brawl.then forgettaboutit and just enjoy posting reading scrolling.

    And no more slurs against canines especially dying ones. Meoldema has one of those.
    I will remember not to post about him here tho.

    Cats are fair game. ☺

  40. Sky News Australia
    5 mins ·
    Immigration Minister Peter Dutton says a Papua New Guinea – New Zealand refugee deal could damage relations with Australia.

    I fail to see what this has to do with Australia.

  44. Cont
    A maybe interesting story juxtaposed against current political issues which i will post on The Pub.Shep is my avatar and a long avatar member of Pollbludger.

  46. I think the issue for any bludgertrack prediction is the seat count as swings in seats do not mirror the average that the bludgertrack predicts. 10 seats in Qld or 6 in WA would be a big ask, for instance, should we go to an election soon.

    I’d be more inclined to thin ALP would pick up 1 or 2 seats in most states once things narrow a little with an election campaign and maybe have an 8-10 seat advantage after the next election. But the swing may be much bigger in some seats that do tip.

    I am just hoping that the Qld seats to fall will include Dutton’s!

  47. P1

    Thanks for the compliment 🙂 Undeserved though. My wayof dealing is to keep an eye on twitter news etc and remember that really most of the comments are not really meant personally but are an attack the man not the ball type of argument.

    ___________________
    Bill Shorten presser now

  49. SkyNewsAust: .@TheAusInstitute poll finds 63% of Queenslanders want the $1b loan to go projects other than Adani MORE: bit.ly/2AJX5Ck pic.twitter.com/lli3aQHMcK

    State election but implications for National politics.

    Federal Labor should go harder on Adani.

  50. I normally cros post ftom both blogs. But if you do not want to hear about my dog when we are discusding the same issues for humans so bloody well be it.

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