BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

A long period of poll trend stasis appears to have ended, with three pollsters reporting a break to Labor.

Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

623 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. Is it a Constitutional crisis if there’s no government around to hold a referendum on fixing S44 because S44 has disqualified too many MP’s to sustain one?

  2. Elaugaufein says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 2:50 pm

    I don’t mind Phoenix posting about US politics but I’d much prefer a Dawn Patrol style: Short summary and link.

    ***********************************************************

    I have given my word Elaugaufein to mend my wicked wicked ways – I will try to post shorter links, try not to go into too much Telegraph crap …… but I like a bit of “colour” from the non traditional MSM … and some of those twitter accounts that Victoria and I follow include some brilliant legal minds ( Andrew Laufer/Benjamin Wittes ), some GOP insiders ( Rick Wilson is brilliant ) and ex-NSA spook John Schindler etc etc – who get fed information from involved/concerned sources from all over the world and have stuff weeks ahead of other MSN sources …..

  4. I am more than happy to follow many (most?) of PR & other links to news sites other than the MSM ones; otherwise i get to remain in a comfortable but uneducated silo.
    Some of these news sites do make you think and many turn out to be true/feasible/verifiable/crap and most often initiate follow up research.
    Keep it up PR et. al.

  5. Diogenes @ #344 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 10:52 am

    KJ
    911 denial is one of the very few straight red cards for William. I think Holocaust denial gets you there pretty quickly as well.

    But William is very nice about it, he normally gives a link to Chris Kenny, Andrew Bolt or some other similar blog that he thinks would suit.

    Actually that leads to a disturbing question;

    Why does William have such ready access to such links? 🙂

  6. As to those claiming some Greens might not be able to handle Bartlett’s sense:

    The Queensland Greens senate ticket (and order) is achieved by taking nominations, then every member is emailed a link to an online voting system where candidates are given a numbered ranking and ticket order is determined by standard preferential voting rules / order of election.

    Bartlett made number 2 on a ticket behind a sitting Senator and sitting Greens Senators haven’t yet failed to be pre-selected ,( which is why it’s kind of interesting that Rhiannon may not be).

    He was also elected as the Queensland Convenor afterwards ,administrative and committee roles are done the same way. And the role he was elected to was the most senior.

    It’s fairly safe to assume he’s pretty well respected in the Queensland Greens.

  7. CTar1 @ #335 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 2:36 pm

    I don’t understand why anyone would ever mention their political leanings when engaged in buying or selling anything.

    I never bring it up, but I have found that nearly everyone assumes that if you are self-employed you must be a Liberal voter – or possibly National. Normally I simply don’t bite (it’s bad for business) but occasionally I get fed up with the stupid, uninformed, bigoted or racist comments, and I tell them I’m a leftie. You can often hear the thud as the bottom jaw hits the ground. Some people seem utterly confounded to discover that other people don’t share their opinions.

  8. kevjohnno Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 2:43 pm Comment #341

    Supplier reps often come to the office and seem to want to talk about anything but their products. Most sales reps just seem to love talking or maybe the are just trying to distract me

    When their ‘anything’ includes subjects that many people find controversial, confronting or possibly have strong feelings on in their sales pitch it’s a moronic way of trying to make a sale.

  9. Given that all parliamentarians are paid by the Commonwealth and therefore benefit under the Crown- I assume they are all ineligible once they re-nominate for the next election. Way to go!!!

  10. Phoenix
    Awesome. I do like having the stuff available to read and it’s good to get a more global look at what’s happening.

  12. I don’t understand why anyone would ever mention their political leanings when engaged in buying or selling anything.

    One I remember particularly well couldn’t stop whingeing about the Carbon Tax. This was his justification for higher prices than his competitors. I liked his work, so put up with the yabbering.

    Eventually he started sending me email diatribes circularized from Kangaroo Court and similar sites. I put up with the Climate Change denialism, but complained when he started sending me “inside information” on Julia Gillard’s sexual habits.

    In return I received a bunch of patronizing abuse and was told I didn’t know the half of it. So I quit him without further ado, or notice and, while I used up his stock, found a source in China that did the job just as well, slightly cheaper, with far less technical hassle, and much more politely than he did.

    Last I heard he’d gone almost broke. Sacked most of his staff. Returned his big CNC machines and was working 16 hour days to make ends meet. A far more satisfactory ending than dragging him through the courts for… I don’t even know what.

  13. Booleanbach: That is specifically exempted in the Constitution:

    But subsection (iv) does not apply to the office of any of the Queen’s Ministers of State for the Commonwealth, or of any of the Queen’s Ministers for a State, or to the receipt of pay, half pay, or a pension, by any person as an officer or member of the Queen’s navy or army, or to the receipt of pay as an officer or member of the naval or military forces of the Commonwealth by any person whose services are not wholly employed by the Commonwealth.

    One might wonder about Disability / Age Pensioners, though.

  14. The CoDR has a limited ability to refer someone elected by recount to the Court for a full hearing if there are obvious grounds. Hughes was held to be obviously doubtful enough to need referral (and then was disqualified by that hearing). The limited hearing didn’t think there was enough evidence to refer Bartlett.

    However a referral by the Senate would trigger a full hearing and the deeper exploration of the issue could disqualify Bartlett. Frankly I think he and Di Natale should have done as Hinch did and voluntarily offered a referral to settle the matter.

  15. You can often hear the thud as the bottom jaw hits the ground. Some people seem utterly confounded to discover that other people don’t share their opinions.

    Yep. Got that from a gasket supplier once. Luckily their prices were too high, so I didn’t even start doing business with them. But yes, the sales manager’s mouth was literally agape when I told him I was a Labor voter.

  17. booleanbach @ #354 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 11:05 am

    Given that all parliamentarians are paid by the Commonwealth and therefore benefit under the Crown- I assume they are all ineligible once they re-nominate for the next election. Way to go!!!

    I assume that’s why they dissolve the Parliament before an election.

    Technically they lose their job when Parliament is dissolved and have to reapply for it.

    However they still receive their wages during the election period.

    So, is that a problem?

  19. Bushfire Bill @ #360 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 11:14 am

    You can often hear the thud as the bottom jaw hits the ground. Some people seem utterly confounded to discover that other people don’t share their opinions.

    Yep. Got that from a gasket supplier once. Luckily their prices were too high, so I didn’t even start doing business with them. But yes, the sales manager’s mouth was literally agape when I told him I was a Labor voter.

    A smart salesperson finds out what interests the customer and only talks about those things in a noncontroversial manner.

  20. BiGD

    I will.
    I thought it was an apple pie. 

    Right …

    You are obviously one of those people who when shown a blank sheet of paper and asked to say what you see answer “polar bears f#cking in the snow”.

  21. Barney in Go Dau @ #354 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 3:00 pm

    Diogenes @ #344 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 10:52 am

    KJ
    911 denial is one of the very few straight red cards for William. I think Holocaust denial gets you there pretty quickly as well.

    But William is very nice about it, he normally gives a link to Chris Kenny, Andrew Bolt or some other similar blog that he thinks would suit.

    Actually that leads to a disturbing question;

    Why does William have such ready access to such links?

    Yes, indeedy, I know he will not tolerate 911 BS under any circumstances.
    and for that
    All hail to the great one. William

    I think I am seeing a yellow card for you as you tease me, you little rascal you ❗

  22. Correction;

    … only talks about those things in a noncontroversial manner.

    should be;

    … only talks about those things in a way that won’t upset the customer.

  25. S44 specifically exempts MPs and Senators remuneration from counting as an office of profit under the Crown.

    It would take a very imaginative and antagonistic court to dissolve Parliament that way.

  26. Barney: In the usual (half-Senate election) case, the Senate doesn’t get dissolved. In fact Senators that fail to be re-elected frequently serve for many months after the election, until their term actually expires.

  27. I just don’t get the Tim Paine selection at all. Marsh being dug out of the grave for about the tenth time is bad enough but Paine is just a slap in the face of Australia, much like Ange dropping Mooy for Brad Smith.

  29. In general, I think it’s naive to believe that anti-discrimination laws are keeping business bigots in line. I think it’s simply as Player One and Ctar seem to agree: it’s a moronic way of making a sale.

    By the same token, to get so upset at these people that you report them to “The Authorities” is also pretty pointless.

    Someone yesterday mentioned a cinema proprietor in Hobart who refused entry to a unionmember (who was asking for an MEAA union discount). He got fined $1,000 after the complainant gained entry by using someone else’s ticket (purchased on her behalf).

    Before the decision was handed down, she started up a Facebook page stating that out of the $20,000 she expected to receive, she would endow a scholarship in favour of local artists from the proceeds.

    When she only received $1,000 she had to cancel the scholarship. In fact she didn’t even receive that. The cinema owner refused to pay her. So she said she was going to the Supreme Court for an enforcement order. I looked up to see if she progressed her case, but couldn’t find it. I guess her solicitor advised her that enough was enough i.e. the Supreme Court doesn’t come cheap.

    The cinema seems to be doing OK, too. There was no information about whether the owner offered MEAA discounts. Or whether MEAA members have boycotted the place.

    In short, the whole thing appears to have petered out.

    As for me, I’d have just gone to another cinema if I wanted to see the movie that badly. Life’s too short.

  30. Barney in Go Dau says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 3:18 pm

    booleanbach @ #354 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 11:05 am

    Given that all parliamentarians are paid by the Commonwealth and therefore benefit under the Crown- I assume they are all ineligible once they re-nominate for the next election. Way to go!!!

    *********************************************************

    For me – I don’t understand how if a person is illegally elected to the present Parliamentary term, and even then post election cancelling a duel citizenship, how they can then contest a by- election and regain their spot to that SAME Parliamentary term ?????

    NEXT election – they have checked and are no longer a duel citizen – that’s ok

  31. Asha Leu @ #312 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 10:55 am

    I don’t have any issue whatsoever with Pheonix (or anyone else) posting lots of US-related content, simply with the sources he/she tends to use. Reputable news sites like CNN, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Guardian, and more all have tons of fascinating articles and opinion pieces every day on the Trump administration, the Russia investigation, and US Politics in general.

    politicsusa is not fascinating – it’s over-the-top hyperbole which recycles in the same manner as alt-right sites and Fox, but from an anti-Trump perspective. Mostly the work of one guy. He doesn’t do any of his own investigations or interviews, he just recycles the work of others and fans the flames. It’s fun to read but surely of minimal interest to wonks on PB?

  33. Diogenes says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 2:52 pm
    KJ
    911 denial is one of the very few straight red cards for William. I think Holocaust denial gets you there pretty quickly as well.

    What about tower 7???
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=972ETepp4GI

    Only joking William, but that 3rd building does seem very odd. And they all fell like bloody pancakes. Good fodder for conspiracies.

  34. I am more worried about them going in with only 4 bowlers (no batting allrounder). I am thinking out aloud here, but is it possible Bancroft and or Hanscombe will keep wickets and they bring in a 5th bowler? No Paine.

  35. Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment @ #380 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 2:31 pm

    Asha Leu @ #312 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 10:55 am

    politicsusa is not fascinating – it’s over-the-top hyperbole which recycles in the same manner as alt-right sites and Fox, but from an anti-Trump perspective. Mostly the work of one guy. He doesn’t do any of his own investigations or interviews, he just recycles the work of others and fans the flames. It’s fun to read but surely of minimal interest to wonks on PB?

    I would agree that politicus and rawstory aren’t the best sources, and that they do tend to be oversampled. However I’ve also seen plenty of corroborating stories from more mainstream outlets being posted.

    I’d like to see more of those, though it’s also no great difficulty to adjust the politicus and rawstory content for its known level of bias and work out “is this a bad day for Trump, or just normal?”.

  36. Every now and then you see an anti discrimination case for a pub that refuses people because they are Aboriginal or taxi drivers that don’t allow blind people to bring seeing eye dogs on board. I’m sure that most cases are dealt with through mediation.

    I honestly think that you don’t see the value in these laws BB simply because you have never had recourse to them to remedy discrimination against you, and like me you probably don’t have a clear understanding of how they are actually applied in practice.

    You’re welcome to your opinion but for the most part these laws are there to protect minorities of which I am assuming you are not a member.

    You seem to think that it would be impractical to prove these cases but to me that simply indicates a blissful ignorance of how naked and obvious some types of discrimination can be.

  37. Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment

    politicsusa is not fascinating – it’s over-the-top hyperbole

    It’s fun to read but surely of minimal interest to wonks on PB?

    ***************************************************************

    Some alterative opinion :

    Notes: PoliticusUsa is a left wing biased news and opinion website. PoliticusUsa typically sources to credible media sources such as Reuters and are factual in reporting as we were unable to find any instances of failed fact checks. Though headlines tend to be somewhat sensational, the content of articles is evidence based with occasional use of loaded words that convey emotion. In short, PoliticusUsa is left biased through story choices and wording, but factual in reporting.

    https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/politicususa/

  40. This got stuck in moderation earlier today – and Mr Turnbull’s malign FTTN is also playing up, again:

    First post from a lurker of several years. And first, if long overdue, thanks to William and to all who contribute. Your vantages, insights and multiplicity of sources – not to say your time in making them known – are very greatly appreciated.

    Which isn’t to say I’m a proponent of false equivalence or equal weighting. I, too, know how to use the scroll wheel, and do. What prompts my belated writing today, however, is that Victoria and Phoenix Red and their posts are not among them and, for me – and the multiplier of family and friends also now introduced to PB – PB would be diminished without them.

    Again, my thanks to all involved.

  42. Simon Katich @ #379 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    I am more worried about them going in with only 4 bowlers (no batting allrounder). I am thinking out aloud here, but is it possible Bancroft and or Hanscombe will keep wickets and they bring in a 5th bowler? No Paine.

    So, why pick Paine then?

    Dean Bilton is scathing in his analysis.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-17/ashes-tim-paine-shaun-marsh-cricket-australia-hypocrisy/9161886

  43. Question (AnonBlock)
    Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 3:36 pm
    Comment #382

    Diogenes says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 2:52 pm
    KJ
    911 denial is one of the very few straight red cards for William. I think Holocaust denial gets you there pretty quickly as well.

    What about tower 7???

    Wass matta you ❓

    I have had a really hard life – totally self inflicted.
    Now, as I play the old codger card, you appear, as if from a nighmare.

    Verily I say unto you and your “what about Tower Seven” – get thee behind me ❗

    🤘 sign of the horns.
    and
    Fingers in ear ♫♪La La La La ♪♫La La……………………

  46. Simon Katich says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 3:53 pm

    **“We want to raise the bar, not (reward) mediocre performances.” Hohns.**
    Oh. Did I miss him sacking Pat Howard?

    ****************************************

    Bring back Warnie !!!!!

  48. **So, why pick Paine then?**
    Dont ask me to fathom the minds of the Australian Selectors.

    There are three bowlers in our team who have a worrying history of injuries and it is back to back tests. And with Maxwell out there are no batting allrounders. With Starc a bowling allrounder they could fit in another bowler if they had a keeper who bats well.

  50. On this cricket selection issues I have a really controversial theory. Brace yourselves.

    I know not enough about cricket to know good choices and (a big deal for PB) can freely admit to not knowing 🙂

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