BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

A long period of poll trend stasis appears to have ended, with three pollsters reporting a break to Labor.

Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

623 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. BiGD

    A smart salesperson finds out what interests the customer and only talks about those things in a noncontroversial manner.

    Yep, it’s effect on pricing makes it relevant to mention but a smart salesman would put in down as ‘carbon tax/environmental protection charge’ having increased their direct costs and not indicate agreement/disagreement with it – just that it was a factor.

  2. Ides of March says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 3:57 pm

    I know not enough about cricket to know good choices and (a big deal for PB) can freely admit to not knowing

    Well as Simon Says – neither do the Australian team selectors

    And I bet Boerwar hates these “white maggots” of cricket umpires who conspire to defeat HIS selected team from winning

  3. The Australian cricket selectors, after finding out the reason why the Earth is shunned by the rest of the galaxy, are to be congratulated for finally doing something about it.

  4. @SK, The treatment given to Matt Renshaw and to a lesser extent Peter Neville is appalling. they should not of been dropped. CA aren’t getting any of my money this summer.

  5. BB @3:11PM: One I remember particularly well couldn’t stop whingeing about the Carbon Tax. This was his justification for higher prices than his competitors.”

    I encountered that a few times. Tradesmen who whinged about the “carbon tax”. The guy from the NRMA when my car broke down, the guy who did the yards and gardens of our building. The Abbott – Murdoch Coalition had succeeded in convincing lots of people in small business and trades that all their problems were down to the carbon tax.

    Now, 5 years later, power prices have surged by four carbon tax equivalents owing to corporate greed, market failure, botched privatisationsand and gross incompetence on the part of the Abbott-Turnbull Government which resulted in the complete failure (arguably collapse) of energy policy. That added to whatever the real problem was before.

  6. Now, 5 years later, power prices have surged by four carbon tax equivalents owing to corporate greed, market failure, botched privatisationsand and gross incompetence on the part of the Abbott-Turnbull Government which resulted in the complete failure (arguably collapse) of energy policy. That added to whatever the real problem was before.

    And amazingly, it’s STILL Labor’s fault!

  7. I think the anti-discrimination law debate on here is mostly between people who actually generally agree – BB has not called for anti-discrimination laws to be repealed or watered down, etc.

    In terms of day-to-day practice I would agree with BB that, for the most part, anti-discrimination law is largely ineffective, but is largely unneeded because most people, most of the time, adapt or avoid crossing the line to impoliteness in their interactions, etc.

    That isn’t to say that anti-discrimination law isn’t necessary – it does provide an important symbolic line in the sand saying that discriminatory behaviour in public life is not acceptable.

    And of course many people are subject to low-level racist, sexist, homophobic interactions on a daily basis, but for the most part they don’t rise to the level of being worth taking action over – and the costs (both in terms of legal expense, but also personal reputational cost) from taking action over minor slights is prohibitive.

    Of course when the day-to-day niceties that we expect in modern Australia break down and there are egregious or systematic displays of discrimination then it is important to have the law there to bring the power of the legal system to bear to bring some consequence to the worst offences.

    I think there’s a general principle that law that is applied on a discretionary basis is bad law because it results in arbitrary, unpredictable and potentially unfair outcomes. However, in the case of something like anti-discrimination law it’s hard to see it operating any other way than a discretionary way that is mostly unused.

    I think there is a subtle point here that is getting lost and it relates to people arguing for extra exemptions in the marriage equality act. There is an expressed fear – and it seems entirely unreasonable to me given the way that anti-discrimination law has worked in this country for decades – but still, people are worried that the change to marriage law will result in them potentially being subject to coercion by the State to get them to do something that they might not be comfortable with. Of course, in practice, this doesn’t happen now except in extreme cases, and there’s no reason to believe it will happen in future with any greater frequency under marriage equality.

    It’s not unreasonable to be suspicious and fearful of potential use and abuse of State coercive power, and to simply call people who are fearful in this way “bigots” is not helpful.

    It would be nice to say “it’s not going to happen” – because it almost certainly won’t happen in practice – but, in the nature of these things it is possible that there will be a vexatious complainant who takes offence at something and will cause a lot of trouble. That’s not a reason to water down anti-discrimination law, but I think in this process of enacting marriage equality legislation it might pay to take a more reassuring line rather than a “why do bakers want to be bigots?” line.

  8. Is Raw Story any worse the The Australian? (or even the SMH often)
    Apart from the fact that it comes at stories from the opposite end of the spectrum.

  9. Question (AnonBlock)
    Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 3:54 pm
    Comment #395


    Laugh out loud I did


    I just can’t resist.

    Aaarrrghhh, I’ve got it now. I remember you now. I was pissed as arseholes in 1968 and I dreamed of carnage and destruction and foolishly thought it my own destiny.

    But no ❗ you with your powers of remote sensing through time and space foresaw my “Doubting Thomas” inclinations (regarding dickhead type conspiracies) and decided to get in first with your retaliations.

    Well, let me tell you Buster Schrödinger’s cat is dead, dead, dead and while you probably knew this already, I believe I have played the highest remaining trump card.

    I have my card case ready at hand open to display the dreaded “Black Spot.”

    Please, if anybody can make sense of this, keep it to yourself. 😇

  10. Boerwar says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 4:07 pm

    Could not give a stuff. *crickets*


    the Noel Coward view :

    Mad dogs and flannelled fools Englishmen go out in the midday sun

  11. Simon Katich @ #393 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 11:56 am

    **So, why pick Paine then?**
    Dont ask me to fathom the minds of the Australian Selectors.

    There are three bowlers in our team who have a worrying history of injuries and it is back to back tests. And with Maxwell out there are no batting allrounders. With Starc a bowling allrounder they could fit in another bowler if they had a keeper who bats well.

    Call me old school but I like a keeper who can catch the ball.

    A good keeper who averages 15 – 20 is worth more to a team than a sh!t one who averages mid 40s.

    And if we focusrd more on the batters that can bat maybe we wouldn’t be so interested in the late middle and tail end.

    History shows how rare true all rounders are and I believe we focus too much on their batting ability rather than their bowling.

  12. I really hope Paine does play – he would have been the Aus keeper had his finger not been mangled a few years back. He is an excellent keeper and is also an excellent batsman. I’ve been hoping they’d select him over Wade (who is an ordinary keeper, and like Maxwell, can’t control his impulses as a batsman and wants to be the hero — so he gets himself out stupidly, as often as not).

    I am really glad Maxwell has been dropped as well for the above reason (he thinks he’s our Kevin Pietersen but lacks the degree of talent in terms of test cricket).

  13. Boerwar says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 4:21 pm

    Not being able to control impulses is a consideration


    In cricket – and politics ……

  14. Sonar – agree on the treatment of Nevill but Renshaw is young and will likely benefit for having to fight for his spot (a bit like Pup 10 years ago). Bancroft has been in wonderful form and deserves a go to see if he can step up to the test level.

    While disturbance to the team is regrettable, players shouldn’t expect to stay once they’ve made the team if they have lost form. We have a very strong Sheffield Shield comp that really highlights how well our players perform and the competition for spots is, I think, a healthy thing.

  15. BigD
    I agree.
    Just saying that with 3 fast bowlers and a spinner – losing a fast bowler during the game would be a blow. And with no allrounder (Mitch Marsh or Maxwell) I wonder how they will address that issue… with fingers crossed or a surprise inclusion of a 4th quick and a batting keeper.

    The more I think about it…. Starc and Cummins cant (and shouldnt) be bowled for long periods, and Hazelwood is just back from injury. They would be mad to only have the three of them.

  16. Question @ #419 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 4:22 pm


    I have a collection of black spot cards. One of them was for when I saw the cat.

    Skywatchers are in for a special treat this weekend. The annual Leonid meteor shower peaks late in the evening on Friday (Nov. 17) and early in the morning on Saturday (Nov. 18). Weather permitting, it should be possible to see some “shooting stars.”

    Make sure you are in a dark area remote from ordinary folk and enjoy the shooting stars.

    I, me, myself, personally, until last year had not had the pleasure of viewing the annual Leonid meteor shower.
    Tonight, as a self described old hand I will be out and about viewing again.
    I have a super power which enables me to awake at 3 A.M. to enjoy such events.
    The power, I need to go potty, what else.

    Be good now. 😇

  17. Mr John ‘Everywhere’ Howard is currently in Queensland helping the LNP campaign. Unfortunately he seems to be causing them some embarrassment.

    Former prime minister John Howard has hit out at the size of Queensland’s public service, undermining Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls promise not to cut jobs…

    Mr Nicholls has been haunted during the election campaign over the role he played in the sacking of 14,000 public servants during Campbell Newman’s government.

    The opposition leader has repeatedly apologised and ruled out axing government workers if he is elected to govern.

  18. Oh, and Marsh is a perfect example of the Peter Principle. Great at shield level but disappoints at test level. I’ve often wondered whether Swampy has someone’s ear so his son’t get better treatment than others. Mitch should have stayed at state level from the beginning.

  19. Elaugaufein Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 3:02 pm Comment #356

    As to those claiming some Greens might not be able to handle Bartlett’s sense:

    It’s fairly safe to assume he’s pretty well respected in the Queensland Greens.

    I’ll assume by ‘those’ you mean me as I didn’t notice any similar posts.

    That he’s respected in the Greens is good.

    I hope he is given the chance to do good things.

  20. citizen

    14,000 goodness that was a “slashing” . I wonder how much damage that did to the actual service public servants were able to give the public !

  21. I am not sure that I would be wanting Howard to be rooting for me, were I on the Coalition side right now.

    His Government was demolished.

    He was booted out of his own electorate.

    He does fuddy fogey in a querulous voice.

    But that is about that.

  22. I’ve just been thinking about the Boilermaker Bill/Stephen Murray hypothesis re ‘Office of Profit Under the Crown’ and was wondering whether it might extend to say, a Barry O’Sullivan type, who may have had a company that was making a profit as a result of a government tender, which kept doing the job even after he had nominated?

    I think this is what Labor are trying to tease out and why he is likely to be the next cab off the rank to go before the High Court.

  23. Eunoe @ #431 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 4:41 pm

    Thanks, KayJay.

    Every word you write is succour for a soul. Plus, of course, all your technical expertise.


    My technical expertise is simply making notes of the information that the more knowledgeable make available.

    The other “stuff” is just trying to enjoy myself the best I can.

    You are very kind. Stay well. 😵

  24. CTar1
    I generally try and avoid picking personal arguments for what are widely held views around here* unless someone(s) is/are being (an) asshole(s) and you weren’t.

    Also the rest of the post about how selection is done was generally aimed (since I know other parties have different methods).

    * Anything that involves a negative view of the Greens or any action they take, may

  25. citizen

    Former prime minister John Howard has hit out at the size of Queensland’s public service, undermining Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls promise not to cut jobs…

    Qld Libs getting exactly what they’re paying for!


  26. Windows 10 insiders 17040 now downloading.
    Just as I have my main computer running brilliantly with a complete hard disk format and reload of all my bits and pieces.

    I expect that I will be talking to my relations in Canberra shortly. Hope also that I can talk to my long lost cousin (recently re united after 63 years) soon. She was a beautiful little girl. What can I say. I am chuffed.

  27. I think John Howard might have the Reverse Midas Touch these days when it comes to politics.

    His intervention into the SSM debate was spectacularly unsuccessful as well.

  28. And malcolm Turnbull was wittering on again today about how many jobs and how much growth his Corporate Tax Cuts will bring to Australia.

    No, it will just appeal to the ‘Greed is good’ business types like this pair:

  29. Tesla has just unveiled the new semi truck.
    – 500 mile range
    – recharges to 400 mile capacity in 30 minutes
    – 20-30% cheaper to run than diesel semi
    – when in semi-autonomous convoy cheaper than rail freight
    – goes the same speed up hills as on the flat
    Worth a look if you are into the future of transport.

  30. Sorry, folks. Dog story follows, but there’re are some really stupid people out there. They should limit their impulse theft to inanimate objects. The poor dog will probably be terrified of going for walks and/or being left tied up in a public place from now on.

    I hope the Police pursue this –

    Cavalier spaniel home safe after dognapping from Canberra shopping centre caught on CCTV

  31. phoenixRED
    A long-time lurker here. Please keep the US politics posts coming. BK’s dawn patrol and the US stuff is consumed along with my first coffee for the day.

  32. C@tmomma

    And malcolm Turnbull was wittering on again today about how many jobs and how much growth his Corporate Tax Cuts will bring to Australia.

    For even disengaged people there is a limit to how many times they will swallow that brand of snake oil . It has been increasingly evident around the developed world that that limit has been reached and or exceeded. YAAAAAAY.

  33. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 5:02 pm
    mari @ #429 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 12:43 pm

    Great news’: Liberal MP John Alexander says he’s clear to run in Bennelong | The New Daily dolly Downer must have been busy for once
    So that’s 3 days for Alexander to renounce his British citizenship.

    Does that have any implications for Keay and Sharkie?

    Which is what I would like to know too. But remember that
    They are not LNP!!

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