BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

A long period of poll trend stasis appears to have ended, with three pollsters reporting a break to Labor.

Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

623 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 13
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  1. a r says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 1:03 pm

    lizzie @ #25 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 6:17 am

    Bushfire Bill

    I know there are some who appreciate it, but the Trump stuff is very repetitive and rather boring.

    I appreciate it, because Donald Trump is the single biggest problem in the world today.

    May the anti-Trump news and/or propaganda flow unceasingly until he is removed from power.

    ********************************************

    Well said a r – totally agree with your sentiments … then I will promise Bushfire Bill to ease up on US/Trump – unless his successor is even as bad/worse ( is that possible ????? …… supposedly Pence, McConnell, Ryan, Sessions and a few others will go down with the Trumptanic for their parts in the sordid mess )

  2. Phoenix

    Keep it up.

    I remember you started posting not long after BK stopped including US politcs in his Dawn Patrol.

    Given the workload BK has I appreciate someone posting the US politics news. Just as I appreciate some posting the UK political news.

    Don’t back down because a few posters have to use the scroll wheel in the morning.

  3. On the Flat Earthers, there is absolutely no level of evidence or argument which will change their beliefs. Why would all countries would bother with a massive conspiracy to pretend the Earth is a sphere rather than flat? The answer lies in a globe making humans feel less important which makes them easier to govern. And all the weapons are hidden beyond the Antarctic. Something like that.

  4. Trog

    Im asking for more regulation in this area (including media companies engaging in political campaigns) not less. Your comment is flawed.

  5. BIGD

    The HC has not published their reasons for the Hollie Hughes decision, so people are speculating what ‘an office of profit’ is. The Hughes case, going by the Amicus, drew a straight, direct line between Hughes AAT position at Brandis’s gift and the independence from the Executive which electors are entitled to assume based on S.44. So open and shut on the facts.

    Why the Greens want to open up Andrew Bartlett could be that the they want to shaft him, and bring back Larissa earlier?

  7. I appreciate Phoenix Red’s contributions far more than Bushfire Bill’s, which are inevitably prolix.

    To tell you the truth, I’m glad PR puts in the effort to curate the US news of the day. I certainly don’t have the time to search for it but appreciate it to be at my fingertips in the morning, courtesy of Phoenix Red.

    I certainly don’t find it repetitive or boring. Maybe some people don’t get nuance, I don’t know.

    Plus PR has a wicked sense of humour! 🙂

  8. I also like Phoenix’s USA conspiracy posts, keep it going please, and maybe one day we will wake up to a Trump resignation or impeachment post!

  9. Sprocket not logged in @ #300 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:35 am

    BIGD

    The HC has not published their reasons for the Hollie Hughes decision, so people are speculating what ‘an office of profit’ is. The Hughes case, going by the Amicus, drew a straight, direct line between Hughes AAT position at Brandis’s gift and the independence from the Executive which electors are entitled to assume based on S.44. So open and shut on the facts.

    Why the Greens want to open up Andrew Bartlett could be that the they want to shaft him, and bring back Larissa earlier?

    Thanks Sprocket,

    Your final question however lacks logic as an explanation because if Bartlett is ruled ineligible we go to another recount not a casual vacancy.

  10. I think it is more accurate to say that no one questioned Bartlett’s eligibility

    [MR DONAGHUE: Your Honour, in my submission, no, but it might be said against that proposition that there is an issue in respect of the qualifications of Mr Bartlett. Now, my submission will be when we get to the point that it is no part of your Honour’s task in resolving the references to enter into the question of the qualifications under section 44 of the person who is to be returned, at least in the absence of a very strong ground, to say that the person is disqualified but I would not want to answer your Honour’s question no only to have that issue then revealed. My submission is that your Honour should make the order in both matters as sought in the summons.]

  11. Apropos of nothing much … am I the only one who have noticed that William’s “Preferred PM” graph in the sidebar is looking remarkably … er … wooden?

    Is it possible the voters might be deliberately skewing the results to make a point about one or more of our esteemed leaders being dicks? 🙂

  12. I don’t have any issue whatsoever with Pheonix (or anyone else) posting lots of US-related content, simply with the sources he/she tends to use. Reputable news sites like CNN, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Guardian, and more all have tons of fascinating articles and opinion pieces every day on the Trump administration, the Russia investigation, and US Politics in general.

  14. Player One says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 1:52 pm

    Apropos of nothing much … am I the only one who have noticed that William’s “Preferred PM” graph in the sidebar is looking remarkably … er … wooden?

    *********************************************************

    ‘ cause they are dicks ????? …… Malcolm is looking a bit deflated and turning flaccid , while Bill is getting an erect improvement in the poles

  16. Player One:

    These sorts of aggregate graphs have a tendency to look pretty phallic in general, but I must say that this one does take the cake in thay regard.

  18. Shellbell @ #305 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:52 am

    I think it is more accurate to say that no one questioned Bartlett’s eligibility

    [MR DONAGHUE: Your Honour, in my submission, no, but it might be said against that proposition that there is an issue in respect of the qualifications of Mr Bartlett. Now, my submission will be when we get to the point that it is no part of your Honour’s task in resolving the references to enter into the question of the qualifications under section 44 of the person who is to be returned, at least in the absence of a very strong ground, to say that the person is disqualified but I would not want to answer your Honour’s question no only to have that issue then revealed. My submission is that your Honour should make the order in both matters as sought in the summons.]

    ShorterDonaghue;

    I don’t want to say I think you should refer Bartlett because then I would have to ask you to refer Hughes as the issue is much clearer.

  20. Player One says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 1:52 pm

    Apropos of nothing much … am I the only one who have noticed that William’s “Preferred PM” graph in the sidebar is looking remarkably … er … wooden?

    ********************************************************

    It is a phallic reminder of the tool of how, we , the humble public, get screwed by the politicians …..

  21. Barney in Go Dau @ #290 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 1:18 pm

    citizen @ #283 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:13 am

    Only in Japan?

    Living up to Japan’s reputation for being precise as well as contrite, a train company in Tokyo delivered a formal apology on Tuesday because one of its trains left a station just 20 seconds early.

    …

    You beat me to it!

    I agree with the Japanese, this is the greatest sin for public transport running to a timetable.

    You never miss a late train if you arrive on time. 🙂

    Of course the report I heard added that the next train arrived on time 4 minutes later. 😐

  22. rhwombat @ #294 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 1:20 pm

    doyley @ #212 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 11:24 am

    Despite all the kumbia and warm feelings over SSM there is no way that any of that will flow over to the issue of AS.

    Australians do not want a return to daily arrivals by boat and that will not change short term. Australians are quiet happy to continue their three wise monkey impersonation of hear see and speak no evil on the issue. They just want the issue of AS to go away and do not care and or do not want to know how that is achieved.

    It is going to take a lot more than just a successful SSM campaign to change that.

    Cheers.

    I respectfully disagree, doyley.

    I think the majority of Australians are as appalled by the consequences of current AS policy as they are by the SSM hypocrisy of the reactionary Right – if not more so given the failure of Mordor to suppress the current images from Manus. Given the implication of the ALP in the origin of the current AS policy, Shorten et al. cannot simply disavow it. However the current evil implementation of Operation Sovereign Bastardry by Reichstüber Dutton (and the clever leverage of NZ Labour, via Jacinda “Galadriel” Ardern) can be safely used, by Shorten, as a repudiating circuit breaker for the whole disgusting mess as soon as the ALP wins the next election – and will be.

    Murdoch’s orcs can’t touch Shorten while the Reichstüber is still the only one who knows where Trumble’s testicles are hidden. The SSM debate has the orcs terrified that a significant proportion of the Oz population knows they’re blowing smoke – witness Corgi the Dogbotherer’s sheep crutching exercise with Tea Party wannabes in the Senate, yesterday. Shorten know he’s going to be PM within 2 years (more likely 6 months), so all he has to do is stay schtum. Once there, the parallels with 1972 come into play: I can see Shorten, Plibersek, Wong et al. doing a Gough to reset the country – including acknowledging our collective responsibility for both AS and, more importantly, for an Aboriginal Australia.

    An incoming Labor Government should run a Royal Commission, expose the full horrors and sheet home (criminal?) responsibility to members of governments and those who carried out their instructions.

  23. Latest on Bennelong by election from the Australian.

    ‘Cory Bernardi is set to run his own candidate and bleed votes from the Liberal Party’s John Alexander at the Bennelong by-election.’

  24. Diogenes @ #302 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 1:30 pm

    On the Flat Earthers, there is absolutely no level of evidence or argument which will change their beliefs. Why would all countries would bother with a massive conspiracy to pretend the Earth is a sphere rather than flat? The answer lies in a globe making humans feel less important which makes them easier to govern. And all the weapons are hidden beyond the Antarctic. Something like that.

    Quite true as my experience with a son in law verifies.

    Quite irrational and therefore not amenable to reason.

    The gentleman in my family is an all around champion. No – not rodeo, but mad stuff. He knows that global warming is BS because a bloke he knows has a fishing boat and reckons it’s getting colder.

    Education is useless because ………………………………………..Moon landings, don’t talk about no moon landings. That bloke in Tasmania never shot any damn anybody and on it goes.

    I occasionally mention the cards I have in a business card case.
    First offence – probably start talking about no damn 911 never happened – yellow card.
    Continue talking in the face of “shut up you idiot” – red card.
    Third offence opening mouth (I give him my electric guitar to play (he’s a really good guitarist)) the dreaded “black spot.”

    He thought it weird that kids would wear dresses. Principal ‘amused’ by Bernardi’s dress day outrage as school raises $275,000 .

    My jack the lad knew absolutely nothing about the subject but he’s not going to wear a dress.

    The latest ploy he tried with me was the gas from Mount Erebus is causing/not causing ozone problems.
    The big problem with him is I then have to spend time finding out how he’s fucked up the information while I would prefer to waste my time on things that interest me.

    Such as:-
    Now that I am officially an old codger, the local girls walking their dogs, girls off to Uni, girls passing, are only too happy to wave to me and talk to me. Where were they sixty years ago. Not even born is the correct answer.

    Apropos of nothing.
    Yesterday, the favourite daughter took me off to the local bread shop (and yes, I know that Bakers Delight management is not the sort I would choose to pat my dog, if I had a dog -we like the staff). On the way across the car park we saw a lady sitting in a car. She was a lovely 95 year old (birthday in February). No, she didn’t want us to sing. Twas wonderful to chat with her while her daughter did her shopping. She lives alone and gets along OK, she said, although she is a little lonely at times. Ah ❗ Yes ❗ We do have adventures.

    E&OE

    Thank you for your kind attention.

  25. You can add my support to PR’s daily efforts of bringing the US news from whatever site that might be!
    Obviously, some bloggers have forgotten that we have read about a number of developments in Muller’s investigations here before they reached the MSM, courtesy of PR’s efforts. In some cases, up to 3-4 weeks before (e.g. the impaneling of the Grand Jury).
    Well done PR and BK. I love your work, lads!

  26. You can add my support to PR’s daily efforts of bringing the US news from whatever site that might be!
    Obviously, some bloggers have forgotten that we have read about a number of developments in Muller’s investigations here before they reached the MSM, courtesy of PR’s efforts. In some cases, up to 3-4 weeks before (e.g. the impaneling of the Grand Jury).
    Well done PR and BK. I love your work, lads!

  27. Trump Claimed Keystone Pipeline Had ‘No Downside’ And Now It’s Leaking 210,000 Gallons Of Oil

    Trump issued a permit in March for Keystone XL’s construction – something that former President Barack Obama and other environmental activists had warned could do more harm than good.

    In another failure for Donald Trump, the Keystone XL pipeline he revived shortly after taking office leaked more than 200,000 gallons of oil in South Dakota on Thursday.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/16/trump-claimed-keystone-pipeline-no-downside-leaking-210000-gallons-oil.html

  35. Simon Katich says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 2:26 pm

    The more PhRed reports on the US situation the less of his jokes we have to endure.

    *****************************************************

    Sorry Simon – I seem to be making a lot of cock-ups here on PB today …

  36. BB

    they may not like you because they don’t like your politics (found plenty of that, have had suppliers literally gape at me in astonishment when I said I was a Labor voter)

    I don’t understand why anyone would ever mention their political leanings when engaged in buying or selling anything.

  37. Shellbell Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 12:59 pm Comment #269

    Wouldn’t Hastie be out if Molan was out?

    Two for the price of one would be nice!

  38. Stephen Murray could be drawing a long bow here

    Could the Commonwealth HELP loan scheme, that assists the vast majority of students to undertake tertiary or further education, give rise to yet another ground for disqualification under section 44 of the Constitution, which has seen 10 MPs and Senators depart the Parliament since the 2016 election, another candidate miss out on taking up a Senate seat, and a growing cloud over many more?

    If it does, this might adversely affect the position of the newly elected Greens Senator for Western Australia, Jordon Steele-John, who, before taking up his seat this week, was undertaking a degree in politics by distance education at Macquarie University?

    If this were found to be an issue, it would also affect the future nomination and election of students and recent graduates with student loans owing to the Commonwealth. While few students are in the box seat for winning an election, some run as minor party candidates, for the experience or to “fly” a party’s “banner” in seats where their prospects are slim.
    While it seems far fetched, and reminiscent of the concerns at the time of the 1975 referral of James Webster to the Court of Disputed Returns that ordinary, routine transactions with the Commonwealth, like getting the telephone installed, might see Members of Parliament breach s.44(v), the so-called “brutal literalism” of the current Court, the decision in Re Day No. 2 earlier this year, and the particular nature of the Commonwealth HELP schemes, do give rise to contemporary questions.

    https://boilermakerbill.wordpress.com/2017/11/17/section-44-would-a-student-loan-from-the-commonwealth-prove-grounds-for-disqualification/

  39. Larissa can’t benefit from Bartlett’s disqualification as that would also be a countback and I’m pretty certain elect the 3rd Green on the Ticket (Ben Pennings).

    The Greens are just covering bases.

  40. **Sorry Simon – I seem to be making a lot of cock-ups here on PB today …**
    Simon says ‘dont be sorry’.
    Simon says ‘dont change’.
    Do 10 star jumps.

  41. If the Court rules that HELP loans disqualify you from office, I’m going to have to assume they anti-S44 agents put in place to have it burned to the ground through deliberately ridiculous readings.

    On that read Bartlett would definitely be out too, as likely would be anyone who works for a contractor who engages with the State or Federal Governments.

  42. CTar1

    Supplier reps often come to the office and seem to want to talk about anything but their products. Most sales reps just seem to love talking or maybe the are just trying to distract me 🙂

  43. Frank Sedmak

    Unfortunately a number of “bomb shell” items turn out to be fizzers (polite term) . Take the recent headline

    ““Secret Finding: 60 Russian Payments ‘To Finance Election Campaign of 2016’”.

    Lurid headlines and reporting with mentions of the FBI giving the impression it was the US elections. The original article had buried way down the bottom the payments were to 60 embassies and that the russkies were having elections for the Duma.

  44. Simon Katich says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 2:39 pm

    **Sorry Simon – I seem to be making a lot of cock-ups here on PB today …**
    Simon says ‘dont be sorry’.
    Simon says ‘dont change’.
    Do 10 star jumps.

    ******************************************

    I was going to ask if I could do 10 somersaults instead – but then – that would be a total balls up ….. nah ….

  45. Boerwar Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 1:04 pm Comment #279

    I saw Bartlett being interviewed the other day and bethought me that he is a plus for the Greens

    Bartlett a sensible bit of kit.

    That may be hard for some Greens to deal with.

  46. Elaugaufein @ #336 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 10:42 am

    If the Court rules that HELP loans disqualify you from office, I’m going to have to assume they anti-S44 agents put in place to have it burned to the ground through deliberately ridiculous readings.

    On that read Bartlett would definitely be out too, as likely would be anyone who works for a contractor who engages with the State or Federal Governments.

    Surely welfare and dole recipients and anyone who has claimed a tax deduction should be ineligible?
    🙂

  47. I don’t mind Phoenix posting about US politics but I’d much prefer a Dawn Patrol style: Short summary and link.

    Also since people probably aren’t familiar with US blog styles it’s probably worth noting if a blog is particularly partisan one way or the other (I don’t like Trump even a little bit but some of those stories are the kind of ludicrously sensationalistic highly partisan tabloid opinion pieces we make fun of the Daily Terrorgraph for running ).

  48. Asha Leu Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 1:59 pm Comment #315

    These sorts of aggregate graphs have a tendency to look pretty phallic in general, but I must say that this one does take the cake in thay regard.

    The ancient Rome aspect of the shape as political comment greatly appeals!

    (I make no comment on the ‘cake’ part of your post).

  49. KJ
    911 denial is one of the very few straight red cards for William. I think Holocaust denial gets you there pretty quickly as well.

  50. CTar1 @ #343 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 10:51 am

    Asha Leu Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 1:59 pm Comment #315

    These sorts of aggregate graphs have a tendency to look pretty phallic in general, but I must say that this one does take the cake in thay regard.

    The ancient Rome aspect of the shape as political comment greatly appeals!

    (I make no comment on the ‘cake’ part of your post).

    I will.

    I thought it was an apple pie. 🙂

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