BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

A long period of poll trend stasis appears to have ended, with three pollsters reporting a break to Labor.

Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

623 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. C@tmomma says:

    poroti,
    Amazing how a couple of old red raggers, Corbyn and Sanders, have turned neoliberalism and itโ€™s shaky shibboleths on itโ€™s head, eh?

    Especially as both are more the mild old chap type rather than fire breathing revolutionary rabble rousers. Which hints at the “It’s Time” factor around the world when it comes to neoliberal economics. People are rallying to people who at least offer an alternative. The latest being Ardern.

  2. Is it a newspoll weekend? I’ll be so interested to see any impact from the survey results. If nothing else I think MT can expect a boost in the personal ratings

  3. Long time lurker but finally fed up – no BB means no PB for me – remaining sycophants can continue with their circle jerk – I’m off to The Pub.

  4. Not only do we have traders testifying in court,but Westpac has a mention in the Paradise Papers

    “Westpac opened an account for a company linked to a Kazakh multimillionaire politician in the tax haven of Cook Islands without doing any identity checks, according to the Paradise Papers.

    The story of how Westpac opened the account for a company owned by Askhat Aitzhanov in 2012, through which hundreds of thousands of dollars passed in just over a month, has come to light as a result of the leak of files of Asiaciti Trust Pacific Cook Islands, an offshore service provider located in the tax haven that set up the company.”

    Paradise Papers: Westpac’s ‘gobsmackingly’ slack Cook Islands tax haven
    http://www.afr.com/news/investigations/paradise-papers-westpacs-gobsmackingly-slack-cook-islands-tax-haven-20171110-gzixcy?btis

  5. Blackrocker says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 7:09 pm
    Long time lurker but finally fed up โ€“ no BB means no PB for me โ€“ remaining sycophants can continue with their circle jerk โ€“ Iโ€™m off to The Pub.

    Well, you will no doubt get your daily dose of BB sycophantry there. We didn’t know you were here, so we won’t miss you when you are gone.

  6. I would agree with the other excellent responses on Adani’s “10,000 jobs” lie. It has already been shredded in two Courts.

    But the real number is even worse. The real number is Zero. Why? Because the coal market is no longer booming. The only way Adami will get export contracts is if other central Qld mines lose them. And how will Adani win export orders off them? By undercutting them on price. How will they undercut them? By getting a publicly funded free rail line. It is a zero sum game, with China and India cutting back on new coal power plants.

  7. Surely the sycophants would be the ones sucking up to BB, not the ones disagreeing with him?

    For FUCK’S sake Zoomster. Name the members of my “sycophant’s” club.

    It’s all in your imagination, Z. I can’t effing believe this myth that somehow I have a silent, invisible, unidentified, hidden 5th column of secret agitators slavishly following my every move so they can chant agreement with everything I write and destroy my enemies.

    It just isn’t true.

    If you could name just one of these people – absent “Blackrocker” whom I’ve never heard of- then we’d both know.

  8. Blackrocker says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 7:09 pm
    Long time lurker but finally fed up โ€“ no BB means no PB for me โ€“ remaining sycophants can continue with their circle jerk โ€“ Iโ€™m off to The Pub.

    Well, cop that, young harrys and harriettes; betcha didn’t see that coming.

  9. As far as I can see BB’s last post here was at 4.05 pm and there was no indication then that anything was amiss with him, after the carry on this morning.

  10. As for Margaret Court her appeal to Liberal MPs to conscience vote is doomed to fail. The measure of their consciences is Manus Island.

    Self interest will guide their behaviour. After the survey they know the electoral maths in their own seat. They will smile and vote Yes. Matt Canavan and Tony Abbott’s hasty retreat after the result shows the reality. They are “principled” conservatives. The principle is survival.

  11. All for the good, another week just leaves more time for the faint patina of triumphalism to tarnish. Though I really would have been interested to see the effects of the weeks events

  12. Fulvio, me and the other two moderators of ThePub unanimously decided to chuck out two of the (now) “uber” posters here four bloody years ago.

    They have never forgotten it. In the last couple of days I’ve been accused of being a Jew hater and a homophobe, weak of mind, needing to take a good look at myself.Every now and again one of these people nudges the discussion along with a snarky comment along the lines of “Remember when BB…?”.

    It’s utter bullshit, very personal, and nothing to do with debate, reason or reality. To further their fantasy, I’m supposed to have a cadre of followers – “sycophants” – who, apostle-like, take in every word I post and mindlessly agree with it.

    Such a thing does not exist, but that doesn’t bother these people who simply cannot forget a real or imagined slight.

    Amazingly they cast themselves as the victims of my Moriartyish machinations, seeing evil, bigotry and malignancy in virtually any opinion I express, or any issue I discuss.

    They combine to mob posters who disagree with them, contributing to a general unsavoury air about the place where, if you disagree with the mainstream, you’re monstered into leaving. The funny thing is they don’t even see it. The biggest whingers about “bullying” around here are they. I’d call it projection, but that’s too trite a term for it.

    William Bowe lost his Crikey sponsorship, and will lose the blog altogether unless he takes control of this mob who have arrogated to themselves de facto proprietorship of it, and who have given to themselves the right to decide who’s cool and who’s not . If you’re in their good books you won’t mind so much, but they are a negative influence and an ultimately destructive one because they can’t forget, they can’t forgive and they can’t forgo the pleasure of putting the boot in where there is no call to do so.

  13. BB – what has happened to you? I used to be inspired by many of your posts but nowadays your commentary is โ€˜sourโ€™ and I find myself wanting to just scroll past. That saddens me.

    Admittedly some here are a little โ€˜strongโ€™ in their posts but many of us support William with $$$ because we really like the forum he has created and I, for one, am willing to put up with the occasional petulance because on balance I learn a lot and I hope I also contribute a little.

  14. Thanks for the explanation BB. I was having trouble making sense of the Blackrocker diatribe. Maybe it’s a pseudonym for Scott Morrison, holding his lump of coal.


  15. Lizzie says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 7:27 pm

    Frednk

    I think some people read a few posts and reach wrong conclusions.

    I read some pretty robust discussion; didn’t see anyone take their bat and ball and go home.

  16. And of course net Adani jobs will be even lower than below zero, if there is such a thing.
    Given the technology and the market in coal, picture driverless trucks, automated coal diggers run remotely (assuming a reliable internet connection), absolutely minimized staff numbers. There will be more technicians monitoring and servicing the robots than miners digging.

  17. Ok, those who donโ€™t like cricket can scroll past.

    For those who do, here is Ch9s commentary team for the upcoming ashes. Can anyone spot the odd one out?

  18. jenauthor @ #515 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 8:01 pm

    BB – what has happened to you? I used to be inspired by many of your posts but nowadays your commentary is ‘sour’ and I find myself wanting to just scroll past. That saddens me.

    Admittedly some here are a little ‘strong’ in their posts but many of us support William with $$$ because we really like the forum he has created and I, for one, am willing to put up with the occasional petulance because on balance I learn a lot and I hope I also contribute a little.

    Hear! Hear! I love your work too, the other JA! Here, and on Twitter. ๐Ÿ™‚

  19. BB

    What a stupid post.

    You imply that the two people you chucked are responsible for accusing you of being a homophobe and a Jew hater – which, if my memory is correct, was your interpretation of guytaur’s response to a post of yours. Guytaur wasn’t one of the two you chucked.

    Then you interpret a comment of mine, responding to a poor choice of words by another poster, incorrectly and go on a rant about it. I am not one of the two you chucked.

    If you are being annoyed by posters who weren’t the ones you chucked, claiming that the annoyance is caused because you chucked people is obviously false, and you need to find another explanation.

    I’d suggest being over sensitive to criticism might be in there somewhere, a bit ironic given your treatises on tolerance.

    …and you’ll probably decide now that I’ve got it in for you too, which is very far from the truth.

  20. Zuvele
    Re: your response to BB.
    What was the flaw in my reasoning? – sycophancy cuts both ways ! You should come down from your ivory tower and have a break from pouring shit on people less intelligent than you!

  21. Damn! I missed the Grumpy Old Man’s latest spit. I have him Blocked for peace of mind after his snarling and condescending put-down of me as a Minah Bird (Cheers, BB! I love being called the human equivalent of flying vermin), this morning.

    However, upon hearing of his latest spray, now against zoomster of all Bludgers! I find that I have unearthed a flaw in the latest version of C+.

    You can’t unblock someone once they have been blocked! So I can’t read it!

    Maybe there is a god after all!?! ๐Ÿ˜€

    Sorry, ratsak! I’ll go back to being chillaxed now. I only wanted to alert a r. ๐Ÿ™‚

  22. Jen, I’ve just reached thepoint where I needed to have a whinge.

    Guytaur’s snivelling insinuation that I was a Jew hater and a homophobe, backed up by the Usual suspects – nudge-nudge, wink-wink – was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

    He later sort-of withdrew the accusation – blaming me for my poor phrasing, of course – and then right at the end repeated it. That is just a rat act.

    C@tmomma is an honourable exception. She writes cogent, often lengthy posts with feeling and argument. She backs up what she says and isn’t afraid to defend it. Good for her.

    But most of the others spend their time whingeing about “the gerbils”, posting context-free links which are a waste of time, or quoting others at great length and then adding two-word epithets to them like schoolkids in a playground.

    This is not to mention the routine accusations of mental health problems if you dare to disagree.

    I’ve never been thrown off this blog, banned or otherwise seriously censured. I try to obey the rules (sometimes flawfully) and in general try to keep within the bounds of decency, without uninvited personal comment. Sometimes what I write is only half thought-through, but it’s worth it to put it out there (and a lot of the time lately I’m writing from a phone, one character at a time, with little opportunity to edit or revise).

    But there’s no forgiveness. Some people seem to spend their entire day here trawling for fault, looking for any way they can pass moral judgement on others.

    I haven’t been around much here (or over the road) in the last few months because I’ve been trying to save my lady from having a nervous breakdown over workplace issues, and simultaneously renovating a broken down old house so that we can sell it and leave Sydney forever.

    Well, my lady was reinstated with full honours last week, completely rehabilitated after 22 months of hell on suspension (and almost half a million dollars of NSW taxpayers’money spent to traduce her character, in vain), the renovations were completed two weeks ago, and we sold the house yesterday afternoon for a good price. So today, with nothing to do for the first time in 6 months, I thought I’d spend some time here and join more fully in the debate, and just generally chuck out a few ideas. Just like old times.

    Old times?Too bloody true.

    For my efforts I was accused in the nastiest, most insinuating way of being a homophobe and an anti-Semite. Nothing could be further from the truth, but truth doesn’t matter to the haters and judgers.

    Normally I wouldn’t dignify their pathetic efforts with a reply, but this time something got under my skin and I decided to duke it out for a few hours.

    I’ve seen good people vilified and mobbed, people who had something to say, no matter how much at odds it might have been with the zeitgeist. They have disappeared in disgust at the treatment they have received. But they had mental problems, don’t you know? They must have been mad to take on the clique who styles itself here as the true proprietors of the blog, talking in theatrical whispers among themselves so that anyone and everyone can hear. It does get you down after a while, but the perpetrators are completely unaware of the damage they do.

    Some here hang around and just use the scroll wheel, while their mobbers freely discuss amogn themselves the intricacies and technicalities of blocking them. Ha ha. Very funny.

    Who can be bothered with all this crap? Blocking free discussion. Shutting your ears to the voices of others? I’ve certainly never done it, and for the life of me I can’t see why you’d be bothered to go through the seemingly unlimited numbers of updates required (at one stage daily) to do so.

    For a while there back at Crikey there was hope. A post lived for about 10 minutes and then got swallowed up into cyber space. The trolling and victimization was reduced to almost nothing, because the haters had no tub to thump that lasted more than a heartbeat in blog time. Boy, did they whinge!

    Now that it’s back to something like the old format, they’re at it again: dominating, judging, and insinuating, with live replay available. It’s a step backwards in my opinion. I didn’t think I’d ever hanker for the days of the Eternal Now, but when the alternative is the Permanent Past, give me a 10 minute window any day.

  23. Blackrocker says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 8:34 pm
    Zuvele
    Re: your response to BB.
    What was the flaw in my reasoning? โ€“ sycophancy cuts both ways ! You should come down from your ivory tower and have a break from pouring shit on people less intelligent than you!

    Jeez, I thought you had promised never to darken the door here again! Can’t depend on anybody these days.

    As far as less intelligent goes, if the cap fits, wear it.

  24. Re PPMโ€ฆ Yep Shorten isnโ€™t Mr Personality but I suspect the electorate is well and truly over the prima donnas and attention seekers. Shorten is different. A team leader who allows others to shine for the collective. A strength not a weakness. Maybe not the fastest route to fame & fortune via PPM status but itโ€™s the best route for good governance.

  25. C@tmomma (AnonBlock)
    Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 8:35 pm
    Comment #405

    Interesting that you can’t unblock.

    I tested the blocking/unblocking with an early version and it worked fine.

    I will be interested to see what AR has to say.

    Thanks for the post.

    I never block anybody. Not a virtue. Just the way I am.

    Goodnight all. 💤💤💤

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