BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

A long period of poll trend stasis appears to have ended, with three pollsters reporting a break to Labor.

Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

623 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. Don – you are such a smart-arse. I have have never read any of your posts that had any thing substantial to add to positive debate.

  2. Well, my lady was reinstated with full honours last week, completely rehabilitated after 22 months of hell on suspension

    Oh enjoy that victory. I know of the sort of toxic environment you took on and defeated. That is a rare feat (sadly).

  3. Fulvio

    Can we draw a line and move on now, please?

    Unfortunately we have a number of posters who are happy to go round and f’ken round … but I wish it were otherwise.

  4. Blackwater

    Jolly that you know my real name. I don’t know yours. Pseudonyms are used for a reason, and you should respect that.

  5. Agree wholeheartedly on Shorten Gecko.

    I had to laugh at Samantha Maiden’s pathetic attempts to stir up leadership gossip this morning.

    The party knows that steady hand on the tiller is much better than rockstar status that achieves nothing.

  6. US: This a big event because for the second time in eleven months enough Republicans voted together!

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Congressional Republicans took important steps on Thursday toward the biggest U.S. tax-code overhaul since the 1980s, with the House of Representatives approving a broad package of tax cuts, and a Senate panel advancing its own version of the legislation sought by senior lawmakers and President Donald Trump.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/tax-overhaul-drama-moves-to-senate-as-house-approves-its-bill-idUSKBN1DG1G3

  7. Don – you are such a smart-arse. I have have never read any of your posts that had any thing substantial to add to positive debate.

    That’s rich, coming from a lurker!

  8. I’m old enough to remember Blue Hills on the ABC. One of its features was that you could miss a few weeks of episodes and on resuming listening you’d find that nothing much had changed.

    I’ve been tied up for the last few months and haven’t been able to keep up with Pollbludger, but on returning I’m finding that the same old feuds are bubbling away.

    Since almost everyone on here uses a pseudonym, I have sometimes wondered whether some of the active pairs of antagonists are actually one and the same person, gaining amusement from scripting conflict in the manner of pro-wrestling.

    Sounds a bit far fetched I know, but not that much more far fetched than people getting concerned about what’s been said by some anonymous stranger. There’s a fine old Saki story called “The Peace of Mowsle Barton” (http://www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/PeaMow.shtml) which often comes to my mind when I read some of the posts here.

  9. jenauthor

    I had to laugh at Samantha Maiden’s pathetic attempts to stir up leadership gossip this morning.

    I’ve had her marked down as not worth bothering with for a long while but her output seems to have changed recently to whinging and outright ‘make it up’ because ‘no one will tell me what’s going on’ crap in the last few months.

  10. Her Indoors is a basket case. She was accused of the most awful things, but only things for which there was no evidence. Anything that required proof was put to one side. Innuendo was substituted. It was a classic hatchet job, brought on by a manager who simply took a dislike to her.

    Since she was suspended, no less than five other replacements have filled her role. One by one they have been sacked, resigned or transferred. Before she took on the job there were three doing it in 18 months. 2 sacked and the other left in disgust.

    You’d think that upper management would start to get the hint that it’s not the workers who are at fault, but their over-demanding managers. If I told you what department of the public service it was, you’d laugh out loud. You really would.

    I took over day-to-day management of her case because she couldn’t even look at what they were saying about her without bursting into tears and running away. Through research and reading (and some inside information) I built a defence: documented and footnoted. We never made a point that we couldn’t back up with facts, figures and multiple sources.

    But in the end mangement can never allow themselves to admit a mistake. Admissionof error, in their world is “an industrial risk” i.e. a risk they’ll get their arses sued and their prospects of promotion reset to zero.

    So, you have to find a way around it. It took 22 months but we finally won a complete victory.a late, stupid mistake on their part closed the case forever. As a general warning, if you think you’re covered by executive or qualified privilege, make sure you get your email addresses perfect before you start bragging to the world about how you personally showed your employee who was boss. Sending such letters to the wrong recipients can be a lot more than just embarrassing.

    Seeing these tactics applied to my wife, in a sort of parody of Kafka on steroids, has made me more attuned to how much our world is based on misuse and abuse of language for the purposes of cheap propaganda. As long as the loop is closed – possessing qualified privilege – you can get away with it. But let the poison out into the mainstream and you’re toast. The light of reality is the greatest antiseptic.

    But first and foremost you have to believe in yourself: an honest version of same, warts and all, good and bad… and from that,and only that, you can build.

  11. KayJay,
    Fyi, as you are a learned fellow who always wants to learn more, Block/Unblock was fine in earlier versions of C+, just not this one it seems.

    Also, I use the Block judiciously, to maintain my sanity and my sobriety. It’s also why I don’t go to The Pub. 😉 (Well, only once in the last few years when someone here exhorted us to go there and read a particularly good post by Aguirre) Though I must say, it’s a shame that the petty enmities that I thought I had escaped from there seem to have found their way here.

    Not to worry, I have my President Obama stuffed toy to cling to like a life preserver. 🙂

  12. I don’t post much on poll bludger but am very happy to support William financially on this blog. I was close to stopping before as the Crikey one had just about reached the point of no return for me. I am sure the blog will be successful.

  13. BB. Good to hear the result overthrowing your wife’s suspension. Taking on a self-interested bureaucracy is never likely to be a pleasant task.

  14. That’s rich, coming from a lurker!

    Don, you’ve only been around since virtually yesterday. If you’re going to start labelling people as lurkers, remember that some, a very few, have been posting here for over a decade, and have a much better context and status as “regulars” than yourself.

  15. CTar1 @ 9.07 pm

    And for those who were out in the fields when Blue Hills was broadcast from 1.00pm to 1.10pm, it was repeated in the evening from 6.40 to 6.50. I had a neighbour who tended to miss it at lunchtime, and therefore found herself having to listen to Blue Hills and watch Bellbird at the same time.

  16. Bushfire Bill (Block)
    Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:08 pm
    Comment #426

    I wish you and your wife the very best of good fortune.

    I really hope that you have had the benefit of kind, caring family and friends to talk to about the events you have described.

    That’s all from me.

    Goodnight all. 💤💤💤

  17. BB. Good to hear the result overthrowing your wife’s suspension. Taking on a self-interested bureaucracy is never likely to be a pleasant task.

    It was highly un-pleasant, but you need to know that, from time to time, power can be beaten at its own game, most of whose rules they themselves have no idea of (being used to applying the rubber hose to the shins and the telephone book to the back of the head as the embodiment of “due process”). They hate you quoting their own rules back at them.

    But it does make me wonder just how many other employees simply gave up, their employment files forever stained by adverse findings that bore no relation to the truth.

    You see their posters against bullying and mobbing stuck up all over the workplace, and you really do have to have a chuckle to yourself at the sheer gall they have in claiming to be “role models” (as managers) for decent behaviour, when the worst of the worst are themselves.

  18. I just think you really need to stop accusing Guytaur of calling you an anti semite. It’s a scurrilous accusation if the posts I have read are what you are referring to.

    He was drawing an analogy between discrimination based on sexuality and that based on race/religion, for the purpose of arguing against your position. He didn’t even call your position homophobic unless I missed that – at most he was saying that you may not have considered that perspective. I mean no offense but unless you can point to where anyone called you a jew hater or even insinuated it you need to stop accusing him. Happy to be corrected if there were posts which I missed.

  19. Okay, the Coalition sledging doesn’t appear to have gotten legs, so how about some name-dropping? I was invited to KK’s campaign launch on Sunday!

    I politely declined, stating that my more important, full-time job is as a Minah bird on Poll Bludger.
    🙂

  20. poroti says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:17 pm
    mari

    Hoots mon, I hope William does well. He needs the money to pay for therapists after dealing with the PB menagerie

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rjzRMZs4Q0

    Agree I couldn’t do it and would need help. Although getting quite a bit of practice on Twitter seems like the trolls or bots with 1 to 10 followers are out in force at the moment. My patience is wearing thin usually mute now pretty quickly.

    Thank you for my “fix” off to watch

  21. Don:

    I’ll take Trump posts over cricket posts anytime.

    Well, I was intending to post a wholehearted agreement to this, but after reading through the pages that followed, some tedious cricket commentary doesn’t sound so bad at all.

  22. shiftaling @ #570 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:23 pm

    I just think you really need to stop accusing Guytaur of calling you an anti semite. It’s a scurrilous accusation if the posts I have read are what you are referring to.

    He was drawing an analogy between discrimination based on sexuality and that based on race/religion, for the purpose of arguing against your position. He didn’t even call your position homophobic unless I missed that – at most he was saying that you may not have considered that perspective. I mean no offense but unless you can point to where anyone called you a jew hater or even insinuated it you need to stop accusing him. Happy to be corrected if there were posts which I missed.

    You are 100% correct, shiftaling. I was going to make the same observation myself but I didn’t want to cop another mouthful of abuse. Plus! The Unblock button has disappeared into the 4th dimension and so I couldn’t! I’m glad you did, though, because Bushfire Bill has a way of expressing himself with the certainty of the righteous, if misguided. Most who don’t know better tend to believe it, as a result. When, in fact, the record needs to be corrected.

  23. Pedant

    when Blue Hills was broadcast from 1.00pm to 1.10pm

    After that they did the stock exchange. It was riveting stuff to eat lunch by.

    Simpler times!

  24. He didn’t even call your position homophobic unless I missed that

    Yeah, you did miss it, in exactly those words, precisely that word.

    It’s a rotten thing to say about someone.

    There was no need to bring “Jews” into it. It always ups the ante. I don’t care how syntactically oblique the reference was: it was a slur and meant as one. Weasel words and delicate parsing don’t cut it.

  25. I just read KBs latest poll roundup,
    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/11/poll-roundup-citizenship-chaos-sends.html
    Worth reading if you missed it, an interesting stat:
    “The prospect of the government slipping into permanent minority, or perhaps even losing enough seats that it can no longer govern, is a real one. There may also be by-elections in Labor and crossbench seats, but no incumbent government has gained a seat from an opposition in a federal by-election since 1920”

  26. As I said happy to be corrected. But you have been going around here claiming you have been called a “Jew hater” which I’m positive is completely false. And your interpretation that he intended to slur you with accusations of anti Semitism is just that – an interpretation and one I don’t share based on what I read

  27. And of course net Adani jobs will be even lower than below zero, if there is such a thing.
    Given the technology and the market in coal, picture driverless trucks, automated coal diggers run remotely (assuming a reliable internet connection), absolutely minimized staff numbers. There will be more technicians monitoring and servicing the robots than miners digging.

    John,

    Here in the Hunter the considered opinion is that all the Adani coal will do is compete directly with and take jobs away from Hunter Valley coal mines.

  28. Because you’re too lazy to find it yourselves, C@tmomma and Shiftaling:

    guytaur says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:40 am

    BB

    … I am just defending myself here from what I see as an unreasonable attack on me because I pointed out the comment as posted was homophobic.

    In Guytaur’s own words, OK? “Homophobic”. Precisely the word. Same spelling even.

  29. Player One @ #357 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 12:03 pm

    CTar1 @ #335 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 2:36 pm

    I don’t understand why anyone would ever mention their political leanings when engaged in buying or selling anything.

    I never bring it up, but I have found that nearly everyone assumes that if you are self-employed you must be a Liberal voter – or possibly National. Normally I simply don’t bite (it’s bad for business) but occasionally I get fed up with the stupid, uninformed, bigoted or racist comments, and I tell them I’m a leftie. You can often hear the thud as the bottom jaw hits the ground. Some people seem utterly confounded to discover that other people don’t share their opinions.

    Add accountants to the list of occupations where people wrongly conflate your line of work with your political views. It really annoys me because it’s been my experience with other accountants that their political leanings match the spectrum of the general community.

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