Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

  1. COALITION MP: TURNBULL MUST BE SACKED OR I’LL QUIT
    Andrew Bolt, Herald Sun
    44 minutes ago
    Subscriber only
    A Coalition MP says he will quit the Turnbull Government next month, plunging it into minority government. The MP said tonight he will stay only if Malcolm Turnbull is replaced as Prime Minister by a leader who can appeal to conservative voters.

    Beautiful.

  2. I don’t recall the voluntary survey recently undertaken asking any questions about the need to change the Marriage Act to include anything about religious freedoms (whatever that is supposed to mean).

    Did I miss a question?

  3. Sprocket_ @9:33PM

    Also add “Energy Policy”. Probe the relationship between Big Coal and the Coalition. Find out what’s really happening with Adani – there’s got to be a lot more going on there than we know. The truth behind the War on Renewables. The killing of first, any sort of emission intensity scheme, then the clean energy target. Get hold of advice regarding climate policy.

    Subpoena Cabinet papers if necessary. Abbott did. Bugger Cabinet confidentiality. If it’s legal and constitutional, do it. The Coalition would.

  4. On the rumoured Julie Bishop/Scott Morrison ticket mentioned earlier: surely that’s with Bishop as PM and Morrison as Deputy, right? Morrison would be a complete joke as PM.

  5. So clearly, the Essential result is a measure of Turnbull and the Liberal parties triumph last week on SSM.

    Seems strange CPG didn’t pick that up.

  6. Boerwar,

    I know that. And just to be clear, I wouldn’t vote for Lambie if you put a gun at my head.

    Although in fact, I’m not sure all those religous freaks are sincere believers. I feel that some of them are deliberately targetting a demographic to boost their own popularity, whether they themselves believe or not. And that’s the sort of hypocrisy I really cannot stand.

  7. And you can respect her without feeling dirty.
    Unlike brandis, who I do respect for some things he has *said*, but even after his anti one nation rant I still felt dirty

  8. Also on energy, AGL’s 90 “use it or loose it” ultimatum on Liddel is due in about 3 weeks.

    They have some help

    “The University of Technology Sydney’s Institute for Sustainable Futures compared the financial cost and pollution of three possible scenarios for Liddell: extending its life by five years, pursuing AGL’s plans for a combination of renewable and fossil fuel solutions to replace the lost capacity, and a package of clean energy measures.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/replacing-liddell-with-renewables-is-14-billion-cheaper-than-government-plan-report-says-20171118-gzo86a.html

  9. @Zeh……”And you can respect her without feeling dirty.
    Unlike brandis, who I do respect for some things he has *said*, but even after his anti one nation rant I still felt dirty…..”

    No, she is as complicit as all of them in the LNP for the terrible damage done to this country….It’s going to take a lifetime of showers for this country to be clean of the stench of this mob.

  10. I like Jacque Lambie. Yes, she talks a lot of crap sometimes, but probably no more as a proportion of what she says than, say, Christopher Pyne, Tony Abbott or any “Liberal” or National on Climate and Energy policy. She seems to have a blind spot on Islam but that’s probably just genuine ignorance.

    The difference is, she’s genuine and mostly means well, while right wing politicians mostly know they’re talking crap.

  11. Having watched tonight’s Qanda I’m so glad Lambie is no longer in federal parliament. What Tasmanians choose to do with her in terms of their own state parliament is up to them, but I’m glad she’s gone.

    I just hope that mayor dude replacing her is more articulate and less prone to emotional outbursts based on feelpinions.

  12. There’s a strong chance we’ll all have to get used to Lambie being back in the senate in about twenty month’s time. Once she has renounced her foreign citizenship, she’ll be free to stand in the next election, probably in the second half of next year, and will probably win.

  13. Ante Meridian @10:50PM “Although in fact, I’m not sure all those religous freaks are sincere believers. I feel that some of them are deliberately targetting a demographic to boost their own popularity, whether they themselves believe or not. And that’s the sort of hypocrisy I really cannot stand.”

    I agree. I think the recent proposed ‘religious protections’ in James Paterson’s Same Sex Marriage bill (which isn’t dead, just sleeping) is an example. After all, the Big End of Town, their big backers and donors, couldn’t give a stuff about anyone’s ‘freedom’ except their own to make lots of money, not pay tax and not be regulated.

  14. Confessions, I’m a relatively new import to Tassie, in the Devonport area.
    I can’t find anyone with a bad thing to say about the mayor, he actually helped us personally when the council was trying to charge us for picking up one of our dogs after a failed dog-napping attempt by a local kid
    Very nice guy. Not 100% sure what he stands for though

  15. There’s a strong chance we’ll all have to get used to Lambie being back in the senate in about twenty month’s time.

    What a shame. I’d be much happier if she chose a career representings veterans’ rights than angled for federal parliament where she grandstands on all manner of things.

  16. sprocket_ @ #2527 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 9:33 pm

    The ALP is much too nice IMHO

    When next in power, they should have Royal Commissions into:

    The NBN
    The dragging out of Manus and Nauru
    Collusion between Murdoch organs and the PMO
    Collusion between Murdoch organs and Tony Abbott
    The relationship between the National Party and the mining industry

    + The Murray Darling and the Nationals

  17. Zeh:

    As I said earlier, elected councillors are a grey area in terms of S44. If they aren’t paid, as in some states they aren’t, how can they be considered officers of the Crown? And aside from that, they are elected to office not appointed.

    I’ll be interested to see how this all pans out with him.

  18. Dan Gulberry @ #2549 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 9:57 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2499 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 5:57 pm

    Nope. Changing the =jpg to .jpg didn’t work on the Rowe. BK knows how to do it, though.

    You have to stop using the mobile.twitter link. Go to the desktop version and you’ll find the link doesn’t end in =jpg.

    When you have the tweet up, delete the mobile. at the start. That takes you to the desktop version. From there right click on the picture, select “copy image address” and paste the address in PB. You can also delete the =large at the end of the address as well.

    Thanks, DanG, I’ll give it a try tomorrow!

  19. Bushfire Bill @ #2631 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 10:11 pm

    Christ I just read Mandy Vanstone’s article from the SMH this morning on what heros the Libs are on gay marriage.

    Chuck muchly.

    Some commentators are going to look extra foolish if Turnbull is replaced with a hardline conservative whose first action is to kill the marriage equality legislation.

    Apart from everything else that’s wrong with giving the Libs credit for marriage equality, there is no marriage equality until legislation has actually been passed. Hasn’t happened yet, and it’s starting to look like if it does it will only be because Labor, the Greens, and some small handful of Libs willing to stand up to the RWNJ’s (if any such Libs exist) worked together to get something passed. Those Libs can be lauded as heroes; the rest of them, not at all.

  20. One things as clear, Lambie did not know what the word polygamy meant when that guy asked her the ‘slippery slope’ question. You could see her searching her memory and then tried to bluff by repeating her earlier argument.

    Her so passion and advocacy in some areas is commendable, but her lack of knowledge is appalling in someone who had the power to say yes or no to important legislation.

  21. C@tmomma @ #2640 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 10:22 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #2549 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 9:57 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2499 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 5:57 pm

    Nope. Changing the =jpg to .jpg didn’t work on the Rowe. BK knows how to do it, though.

    You have to stop using the mobile.twitter link. Go to the desktop version and you’ll find the link doesn’t end in =jpg.

    When you have the tweet up, delete the mobile. at the start. That takes you to the desktop version. From there right click on the picture, select “copy image address” and paste the address in PB. You can also delete the =large at the end of the address as well.

    Thanks, DanG, I’ll give it a try tomorrow!

    Try keeping the link the same, and then appending “#image.jpg” onto the end of it. As in:

    [original link]#image.jpg

  22. Her so passion and advocacy in some areas is commendable, but her lack of knowledge is appalling in someone who had the power to say yes or no to important legislation.

    Well, she did get elected (in her own right the second time, fair and square). Which is more than anyone here did.

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