Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

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  1. If Bolt’s rant is anything to go by than Turnbull is gone and the Libs are trying to decide what to do with the carcass.
    They have to come up with a compelling reason to dump Turnbull. It has to be policy related not just popularity.
    And even if they do dump Turnbull they are toast.

  2. C@t:

    I rarely agree with, much less even watch Bolt, but the fact there are 50 bills waiting for debate alone gives the lie to Pyne’s prattle that it’s only the marriage equality and citizenship issues the parliament has to deal with.

  3. I have the word from a labor politician that there may be a number more dodgy dual citizenships in the LNP. In which case Malcolm would have no choice but to go to an election before he loses his majority?

  4. Turnbull does not learn from past political mistakes. His many times does he hit his head against a wall to finally realise it actually hurts ?

    He has no detail apart from a kumbia announcement about tax cuts done time in the future. This will drag out as previous announcements have with deaths by a thousand cuts as Turnbull and Morrison rule this savings / cut measure out as labor pushes for detail as to how the coalition intends to pay for such cuts.

    In fact, labor is in a far better position re tax cuts given it has already ruled out big business corporate tax cuts so it will be all up to Turnbull to explain how he will go about it.

    The man is a idiot. I actually wonder if Turnbull has actually sat down with Coreman and Morrison to flesh this announcement out with any detail or if it is another ” all be announced in due course “.


  5. Apparently:

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
    #Essential Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (0) ALP 54 (0) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
    #Essential Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (-1) ALP 38 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 8 (0) #auspol

  6. I remember going into the Federation Chamber in Canberra for a school trip. Somehow I ended up speaker for our school play parliament. I was a regular Bronwyn Bishop and turfed people who didnt even say a thing.

  7. GhostWhoVotes‏
    2m2 minutes ago
    #Essential Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (-1) ALP 38 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 8 (0) #auspol

  8. William,

    I was just thinking, a record of the last poll result, 2PP, from the different pollsters in the sidebar would make a nice feature.

    Just a thought, Cheers. 🙂

  9. @Ides of March says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 9:05 pm
    I remember going into the Federation Chamber in Canberra for a school trip. Somehow I ended up speaker for our school play parliament. I was a regular Bronwyn Bishop and turfed people who didnt even say a thing.

    I hope you don’t have a fondness for helicopter flights as well…

  10. I wasn’t going to venture a prediction on Bennelong but today’s ‘hijinx’ from MT and the Poodle has given me the confidence to say I think KK will scrape over the line.

    The news services (and I say that with tongue firmly in cheek) all had a glowing, bubbly, bouncy KK juxtaposed with a dull, depressed-looking JA.

    Pictures… 1000s…. words.

  11. Sounds like a magic pudding to me:

    “You know our plans on corporate tax. In the personal income tax space, I am actively working with the Treasurer and my cabinet colleagues to ease the burden on middle-income Australians, while also meeting our commitment to return the budget to surplus,” he said.

  12. Qanda audience still impervious to national polling after all these years.

    ABC Q&A‏Verified account @QandA
    32s33 seconds ago
    In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 39%, ALP 33%, GREENS 13%.

  13. Jen

    If you are on the right you get lots of choice.

    Australian Conservative
    One Nation

    In some areas Jacqui Lambie Network

  14. Don’t be concerned Guytaur – I am not of the right so I don’t care about choices they might have. But i’ve Never seen a lib primary that low

  15. At least David Marr used the Murphy 4C to argue thats why ICAC is so important.

    Persecution we saw of Murphy or not would have been pursued away from the politics

  16. It’s a close call between chief pontificator Paul Kelly and young upstart David Marr on 4 Corners, but Marr wins by a length on this occasion.

  17. Jen

    When you have so many choices you start getting used to putting a major as your last preference to send a message.

    Thats bitten Labor in the past.

    Now that division on the right is seeing the LNP primary repeat Labor’s experience.

    They are going to have to get used to it. Of course its stark when you are the party voters are getting the baseball bats out for

  18. If Rupert had decided in the last few months that he wanted regime change in Australia, as he has in times past, the Telecrap and its sister tabloids would be featuring headlines declaring “Government in Chaos”, “Utter Shambles”, “Government Collapsing”. Those would be featured in those ubiquitous banners displayed in front of every newsagent and in every bus shelter in NSW. The photoshoppers would be charged with producing features of Malcolm as Basil Fawlty, the Turnbull cabinet as the Keystone Cops and Malcolm and ministers in clown suits.

  19. I am not watching the 4C report on Justice Murphy. Whenever (Yeah right!) they ever do an investigation of Rattus Duplicitous J W Howard, I will watch their programs on past Labor Ministers.

    Until then, I am changing the channel.

    BTW, Interesting timing of this report, too.

  20. The ALP is much too nice IMHO

    When next in power, they should have Royal Commissions into:

    The NBN
    The dragging out of Manus and Nauru
    Collusion between Murdoch organs and the PMO
    Collusion between Murdoch organs and Tony Abbott
    The relationship between the National Party and the mining industry

  21. Sprocket.

    Create a Federal ICAC as I think Labor intends and it will do the job nicely.

    Plus put barriers to the LNP trying next time for another TURC.

  22. guytaur:

    Given Lambie was opposed to SSM but grudgingly conceded she would vote the way of Tas, she has a convenient out of supporting the bills now she is an ineligible Senator.

  23. The front page of the Courier Mail Mail today had a story on Labor causing blackouts , price rises and closing coal power stations from next year. The report was from some think tank , a front group of the IPA.
    Add the IPA / Murdoch/ LNP ties to a RC too.

  24. I just read the Wiki on Lionel Murphy. He achieved so much. I also see his conviction was quashed and he was subsequently found Not Guilty by a jury.

    Is his greatest crime that he was not a Lib, instead being a Labor man?

    That change to the divorce laws were a godsend for women wanting a divorce, who needed to prove cruelty to get it. How many beatings did it take to get a divorce and stop being a chattel?

    Frankly, I could not care less if he got a mate off something, or whatever the scandal was. It would be nothing less than the Powers That Be do for each other every day and twice on Sundays,

  25. Player 1,

    Desperation makes for some interesting ABC programming. Soon they will be replaying “At home with Julia”.

    No no no. The ABC have a new show in the making. At Home With Malcolm. Mal and Mrs will be copulating on a silk covered duck down quilt, on the Speakers Desk, under a huge Australian Flag. Missionary only of course. A full fruit basket will feature, with lemons and kiwi-fruit.

    You know it’s true..

  26. Lambie may be in a shit load of trouble with Messenger’s unfair dismissal action. I understand that the Commonwealth may be a co-respondent, workplace-wise.

    Messenger is basically saying, sort it by mediation or the very dirty washing is going to get aired.

    The Commonwealth may, of course, be rather in favour of Lambie’s dirty linen getting a very thorough airing indeed.

  27. Okay, so I was right about Lambie.

    Great timing that her dual citizenship renders her ineligible before having to vote on ME bills.

    Typical hypocrite like Rick Wilson.

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