Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

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  2. Busy watching Garry Kasparov, Chess Fundamentals. Hey Kevin B, have you watched it? Does he know what he’s talking about?

  5. Chinda:

    I can remember visiting the old parliament house as a school kid and being able to look in at the chambers when parliament wasn’t sitting.

    Maybe with all these security measures things have changed over the years, but I did have the same thought as you re locking the doors.

  8. Paul Karp‏Verified account @Paul_Karp
    4m4 minutes ago
    Morrison: same-sex marriage is a done deal, it’s concluded, now we have to finalise a bill that “adds to that religious protection, as much as can be supported by the parliament” #auspol #marriageequality

    Not one No person has been able to offer a logical explanation for why we need laws to enshrine jesus freedoms. Why should religious people be offered greater protections than other Australians?

  10. Regarding Kasparov, world champion chess grandmaster considered a real genius by most of his contemporaries (most don’t see Carlson as a genius, just has incredible memory).
    He knows what he’s talking about

  13. Confessions @ #2455 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 7:51 pm

    Paul Karp‏Verified account @Paul_Karp
    4m4 minutes ago
    Morrison: same-sex marriage is a done deal, it’s concluded, now we have to finalise a bill that “adds to that religious protection, as much as can be supported by the parliament” #auspol #marriageequality

    Not one No person has been able to offer a logical explanation for why we need laws to enshrine jesus freedoms. Why should religious people be offered greater protections than other Australians?

    It’s pretty much, ‘Because, I, god-botherer, say so!’

  15. Why should religious people be offered greater protections than other Australians?

    Because they know the will of the guy who made the Universe and who is in charge of it, who made lots of detailed rules that we’re supposed to follow which they know all about, because they have special access to him and because they speak in his behalf, they’re superior to everyone else. Simple.

  16. I see the ABC are dragging out the same smear bucket from the Liberal Party Dirt Unit on 4 Corners tonight.

    This is the Lionel Murphy I remember.

    Murphy’s most important legislative achievement was the Family Law Act 1975, which completely overhauled Australia’s law on divorce and other family law matters, establishing the principle of “no-fault” divorce, in the face of opposition from the Roman Catholic Church and many other individuals and organisations. This act also established the Family Court of Australia.[11]

    Murphy used an existing provision of the Marriage Act 1961 (Section 39C) to establish the Civil Marriage Celebrant program. Using this provision he appointed about a hundred Civil Celebrants and urged them to provide marriage ceremonies of dignity, meaning and substance for non-church people. It was an initiative opposed by the Australian Labor Party, the public servants of his department and his personal staff. Although it was a radical move at the time, the program proved to be very successful. In 2015 74.9% of marrying couples in Australia chose a civil marriage celebrant to officiate.[12] The program broadened into the challenge of secular funerals of substance, namings and other ceremonies which celebrated the landmarks in human existence. Murphy took an enthusiastic interest in this program – sending telegrams of congratulation to the first several hundred couples married by civil celebrants and would often unexpectedly turn up uninvited to weddings performed by celebrants to delight in his achievement.[13]

    Atmospheric nuclear explosion in the Pacific. Murphy took the French Government to the International Court of Justice over nuclear tests at Mururoa.
    As Attorney-General, Murphy drew up a Human Rights Bill (which lapsed with the double dissolution of 1974) giving as amongst the reasons: “in criminal law, our protections against detention for interrogation and unreasonable search and seizure, for access to counsel and to ensure the segregation of different categories of prisoners are inadequate. Australian laws on the powers of the police, the rights of an accused person and the state of the penal system generally are unsatisfactory. Our privacy laws are vague and ineffective. There are few effective constraints on the gathering of information, or its disclosure, or surveillance, against unwanted publicity by government, the media or commercial organisations”.[14] Murphy also introduced important legislation substantially abolishing appeals to the Privy Council, removing censorship, providing freedom of access to government information, reforming corporations and trade practices law, protecting the environment, abolishing the death penalty and outlawing racial and other discrimination.

    Furthermore, Murphy established a systematic legal aid service for all courts, set up the Australian Law Reform Commission (and appointed Michael Kirby to be its inaugural chairman), the Australian Institute of Criminology and took the French Government to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to protest against its nuclear tests in the Pacific.[15] The French government conducted 41 atmospheric nuclear tests at Mururoa after 1966, formally ceasing atmospheric nuclear testing in 1974 as a result of public pressure facilitated by Murphy’s ICJ case.[16]

  17. The other issue with the Reps not sitting is what will the Senate do once they finish with the Smith bill?

    I hope they have a backlog to deal with because they won’t get anything new and they have to wait in case there are amendments in the Reps.

  18. “Good Govt Back in 5” oh that’s brilliant

    Good Government starts when the adults arrive to take charge. As Zeh says, 5 by-elections.

  20. And at Lionel Murphy’s funeral, these reflections on his judicial legacy

    Mary Gaudron, who herself would become a justice of the High Court, stated at Lionel Murphy’s Memorial Service at Sydney Town Hall: “There are so many words — reformist, radical, humanitarian, civil libertarian, egalitarian, democrat — they are all abstractions. My words are no better; but, for me, and perhaps for those of us who believe in justice based on practical equality, Lionel Murphy was — Lionel Murphy is — the electric light of the Law. He would take an ordinary old abstraction — like equal justice — he would expose it, he would illuminate the abstraction, he would make its form stark, and so he could then say as he did in McInnis’ case, these words:[45] “Where the kind of trial a person receives depends on the amount of money he or she has, there is no equal justice”.[46]


  26. adrian says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 7:47 pm

    In response to the government cancelling parliament for a week 7.30….interviews Scott bloody Morrison. Again.

    But was it bias to labor; another dose of Morrison to send the average voter to look for the remote; or bias to the Liberals giving Morrison a chance to try and sell tax cuts in a country with dividend imputation for the locals.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_imputation
    The only people to benefit will be Foreign investors; the cost; the Liberals further stuff up the budget.

  27. Apparently Turnbull has just told (a few minutes ago) the Business Council that tax cuts for middle income earners will be delivered 6 months before the next scheduled election.

    He also told them that his calmness in the face of a crisis was the only solution to Australia’s problems.

    (Just listening to Bolt and Price on 2GB, quoting a breaking story by Shari Markson).

  28. Moksha:

    William says the Greens have a good prospect of winning South Brisbane were it not for a substantial Labor incumbent in Jackie Trad as well as that the LNP have the Greens candidate for the seat place last on their HTV cards.

    The Greens’ task in this case is rendered quite a bit more challenging by the fact that they must unseat a very substantial incumbent in Jackie Trad, the Deputy Premier and factional figurehead of the Left.

    For what it’s worth, an opinion poll conducted by Galaxy Research last week called it a statistical dead heat, with Greens candidate Amy MacMahon leading Trad by 51-49 on two-party preferred.

    However, this credits MacMahon with a stronger flow of LNP preferences than she is likely to receive, given that it has her last on its how-to-vote card.

  30. Wondered what the croc was there for in the latest Rowe, then just heard some Katter word salad, with a croc in there amongst it.

  36. I have just read the comments on the ABC’s report on the torpedoing of the HoR sittings. I don’t normally do this, so can someone tell me whether comments there are usually so uniformly vitriolic to our PM.
    This lot are even less charitable to him the the poll bludgers.’

  38. You would have thought they’d like to spend a long time standing up in Parliament delivering the good news in response to Dorothy Dixers on their personal income tax cut policy. In the normal course of things that is. Feels a little… dare I say desperate?

  40. Bushfire Bill @ #2474 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:31 pm

    Apparently Turnbull has just told (a few minutes ago) the Business Council that tax cuts for middle income earners will be delivered 6 months before the next scheduled election.

    He also told them that his calmness in the face of a crisis was the only solution to Australia’s problems.

    (Just listening to Bolt and Price on 2GB, quoting a breaking story by Shari Markson).

    And, it has to be pointed out, till Labor are blue in the face that, Tax Cuts = Cuts to Services

    Is that what people want?

  42. ‘Fess,
    Thanks for the Bolt clip. He sliced and diced Malcolm Turnbull with a surgeon’s precision!
    I also was unaware that there are 50+ Bills waiting to be debated still! Yet all they want to bring on is the SSM Bill. Pa-thetic! Especially as one of those Bills is the Compensation for Victims of Child Sexual Abuse.

    It’s a virtual dereliction of duty.

  44. Tax cuts to middle income earners ?

    Turnbull wants to increase the Medicare levy on these very same earners and yet give them a tax cut. Net result ? Very little if anything in the pocket. At the same time he wants to increase the Medicare levy on lower income earners but no income tax relief.

    Smoke and mirrors.

  46. guytaur @ #2488 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:51 pm

    Cat

    The polls tell us no voters don’t want cuts to services

    True. However, it’s the only way Turnbull knows how to think. In terms of $$$. Bribe his way back to power, he thinks. That’s if he lasts that long.

    Though I would expect the MorBish combo would try the same move. If they haven’t been laughed out of town, or the government has fallen by then.

  47. We are in a state of gotterdammerung – twilight of the gods.

    The edifice is crumbling. The parliament is emasculated. Policy development is out the door. The party room is restless. The enemy is at the gates.

    And what do we get?

    Tax cuts for middle income battlers.

    Jesus wept.

  50. Well, yes – with two by elections, you’d surely want to look like a happening government which is delivering Big Ideas. Unless, of course, the task is totally beyond you.

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