Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

  1. zoomster:

    Well we don’t know for certain whether Crook would’ve been re-elected, seeing as he decided not to re-contest. But in working with the Labor govt of the day he was able to do more for this electorate in 3 years than I’m guessing Wilson Tuckey ever did in the 30 years he was the local member.

  2. Confessions says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 5:52 pm
    Question:

    Perhaps the real reason Turnbull avoided mentioning an AC/DC song is because so many of them describe his PMship.

    ——————
    So are there AC/DC songs that Malcolm could safely use?

  3. Apologies to those offended by my posts on AS.

    Behrouz Boochani‏
    @BehrouzBoochani

    There’s no electricity in new prison camp in Hillside. The refugees are suffering there in tropical heat. About 30 ppl there & some want to come back to be with us. Australian immigration is lying that the new prison camps are ready. Though even if they were we wouldn’t go there.

  4. Fairfax Media spoke to a range of government MPs who were critical of the snap decision to cancel Parliament and questioned the political tactics of their own side.

    “It seems like panic. In this game you put on a brave face, you front up and present an air of confidence. This seems like Turnbull is scared of the party room and the Parliament,” one MP said.

    A second MP expressed shock at the decision, which he had first heard about on Sky News.

    A third MP said the decision looked like Mr Turnbull was trying to stall the plan to set up the banking commission of inquiry.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-is-scared-government-mps-criticise-the-pm-for-cancelling-parliament-20171120-gzowg7.html

  5. Doubtless the parliamentary staff are obtaining expert advice on what to do next Monday when Labor and others (especially Katter) turn up, expecting to enter the HoR chamber.

    Presumably the MSM will solicit opinions from constitutional commentators in the meantime.

  6. lizzie @ #2406 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 6:00 pm

    Apologies to those offended by my posts on AS.

    Behrouz Boochani‏
    @BehrouzBoochani

    There’s no electricity in new prison camp in Hillside. The refugees are suffering there in tropical heat. About 30 ppl there & some want to come back to be with us. Australian immigration is lying that the new prison camps are ready. Though even if they were we wouldn’t go there.

    ♫Red and yellow and pink and green,
    Purple and orange and blue.
    ♫ I can sing a rainbow,
    Sing a rainbow,♪
    You can sing one too! ♫♪

    What has this to do with anything ❓
    Not a lot ❗
    Why the apology ❓
    Who would the offended ones be ❓

  7. Interesting. Janet Rice is on Qanda tonight. Im guess that with no Ludlam and Waters the rest of the Greens senators need to take up the slack.

    Also Jacqui Lambie, Brendan O’Connor, George Brandarse (sorry thats just the way I pronounce it) and Stephen O’ Doherty (Christian Radio guy)

  8. Chris Ulhmann did his political wrap up on Channel 9. He is so much more forthright since switching over. I am actually liking his style.

  9. @Trog Sorrenson says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 6:32 pm
    …..”I reckon Malky has just served one into Alexander’s nuts.”….

    Thank you linesmen,thank you ball boys…lol

  10. lizzie @ #2316 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 6:20 pm

    KayJay

    Don’t you worry your pretty little head about it. 😉

    I will return to my on the knees sewing (quality repairs and trouser shortening a speciality) as a substitute for my silly boy sentence. 😵

    This setback comes just as I have started my campaign for recognition as the “Brains of the Outfit” of my family.

  11. Indie isn’t really a brand through, there’s not necessarily any continuity. Independents tend to get elected by their own local strength and reputation and that doesn’t usually transfer. Though there have been exceptions over the years, the Greens / One Nation / KAP all started in parliament with independents. Maybe Bernadi will manage it too.

    The Democrats and DLP have more parliamentary origins being ex-Lib / Labor respectively and both ended up spending their brand giving certain voting blocks what was effectively an excuse to change “sides” of the political axis (it says something when a DLP MP jumps to the Australian Conservatives , Bernadi hates unions as much as any Liberal).

  12. Ides of March says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 6:37 pm
    …..and we are back onto testicles.

    I blame the dick-and-balls leadership ratings.

  13. For Malcolm:

    I’m upper, upper class high society
    God’s gift to ballroom notoriety
    And I always fill my ballroom
    The event is never small
    All the social papers say I’ve got the biggest balls of all

  14. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    7m7 minutes ago
    Labor shifting ground on all MPs returning to Canberra Monday now shadow cabinet only.Letter circulating with crossbench to re backbench

  15. For any cryptic crossword fans, the current issue of a puzzle book has a cheeky clue. It’s in the form of a rhyming couplet, the answer starts with ‘s’ and is five letters long.

    The Australian’s last journalist follows, but
    All he finds is run-down hut.

    Answer later.

  16. C@t:

    Bolt isn’t helping either!!

    The Bolt Report‏Verified account @theboltreport
    5m5 minutes ago
    BOLT: This is a government in sheer panic. Running away from our Parliament, our house of democracy. Live now on @SkyNewsAust

  17. re Belinda’s interest in only delivering “Back, sack & Crack” waxing for hetro males

    Ha Ha Ha

    The “back. sack & Crack ” specialists I know are as camp as a row of tents. When Menwax pranced off to the gym in his new gayby Lorna Jayne gym gear it had so many transparent panels I didn’t know where to look, although I wished certain people I know looked that hot

  18. Bemused

    Lost in my own daydreams again.

    Should you see this when you surface.

    Best wishes and fond hopes for easy recovery and excellent report. 🙏

    I now repair to more sewing and maybe some interesting TV (Ha Ha de Hah).

  19. BK @5:35PM ‘For “religious protections ” read “increased religious influence”.’

    Agree. The once powerful ‘Pharisee’ branch of Christianity (its Catholic, Anglican and Protestant variants) is desperately trying to keep as much of its ancient privilege and power over the rest of society as possible.

  20. I would think that federal politicians campaigning in Queensland would just increase support for their opposing party.

    Like the birdseed ad that spent a lot of money to increase sales of the competition product, Trill

    In other words, Federal politicians should stay out of Queensland as the electorate has lost all respect for CANBERRA

  21. I don’t know if the Federal Parliament is different, but here in SA the chamber is open while parliament isn’t sitting so schools and community groups can be shown through.

    This is the first I’ve ever heard of doors being locked outside parliamentary divisions …

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