Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

  1. Schloss Lulzville Schadenfreude‏ @GeorgeBludger · 17m17 minutes ago

    Funny how costings, savings, budget balancing, etc have gone right out the fucking window since Liberals formed government. Together with the use of words like “chaos” and “crisis” and “dysfunctional”… Funny.

  2. There is an interesting thing that aficionadoes of parliamentary process may be able to help me with.

    1. Do Standing Orders stop any ragtag of MPs from assembling as a parliament?
    2. What happens if a ragtag do get together in defiance of existing Standing Orders and vote in a new set?

    It is not as if standing orders are in the Constitution.

  3. The Ch 10 story on cancelling HoR on 27 November said the doors to the chamber would be locked, thus denying entry.

    The scene writes itself. A group of MPs trying to enter the HoR, hamming it up for the cameras. “What do have against democracy, Malcolm?”

    Should go down well on the nightly news. Perhaps Malcolm could call it fake news.

  4. Ah yes, BW, but you forget that the only rule that applies now is that there are no rules.

    The Westminster system is dead.

    Trumble uber alles.

  5. The Ch 10 story on cancelling HoR on 27 November said the doors to the chamber would be locked, thus denying entry.

    Are they even allowed to do that, according to the rules?

  6. The PMO‏Verified account @thepmo
    53m53 minutes ago
    Alright, alright. The PM needs a refresh on his Aussie music so we’re making him a playlist, starting with @acdc and a bit of @braithwaite_d. Tweet us your suggestions.

    :large

    That is the official PMO account too. Guess Turnbull (or whoever) has a sense of humour. 🙂

  7. The vultures are circling…

    Fairfax Media spoke to a range of government MPs who were critical of the snap decision to cancel Parliament and questioned the political tactics of their own side.

    “It seems like panic. In this game you put on a brave face, you front up and present an air of confidence. This seems like Turnbull is scared of the party room and the Parliament,” one MP said.

    A second MP expressed shock at the decision, which he had first heard about on Sky News.

    A third MP said the decision looked like Mr Turnbull was trying to stall the plan to set up the banking commission of inquiry.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-is-scared-government-mps-criticise-the-pm-for-cancelling-parliament-20171120-gzowg7.html

  8. That is the official PMO account too. Guess Turnbull (or whoever) has a sense of humour.

    Highway to Hell would have been more accurate though 🙂

  9. Mr Turnbull has publicly denied that his abrogation of democracy has anything at all to do with a rumoured plan to run a Royal Commission into dissident bakers.

  10. Turnbull has ordered all government MPs who accidentally find themselves in Parliament House to lock themselves in the dunnies.

    Turnbull reckons that that makes him as cunning as a shithouse rat.

  11. There was a story last week that happy clapper Morrison had returned to the leadership fray by taking a stance on “religious protections” in a SSM bill. Perhaps he sees himself making an inside run along the straight to overtake the favourites.
    ___________

    For “religious protections ” read “increased religious influence”.

  12. Zoomster is there any feeling in Indi that there is no point in having an independent member like McGowan? Wouldn’t it make more sense to just elect an actual member of the coalition perhaps a good old fashioned pork barrelling National Party member?

  13. Cathy McGowan has put out a statement that she will not return to Parliament til Dec 4.
    ____________
    The only noteworthy thing she has done is to see the odious Mirabella off.

  14. I told a customer I’d be finished building a website for them by Christmas. It’s a pretty basic job and I’ve had all year to get it done, but I decided to spend the first 11 months of the year trying to get the customer to complete a SurveyMonkey survey to pick what colors I should use. They completed the survey, and it turns out they want me to use the colors that originally said they wanted me to use when we were discussing the project last year.

    So now that I know what colors to use I can finally get this project done. In order to ensure it’s done on time, I’ve decided to delay starting work on it by one week.

    True story.

    Well okay, not really. But I like that the new way to get work done is to refuse to show up to do any work. I predict skyrocketing productivity thanks to Turnbull’s brilliant new discovery.

  15. I always enjoy reading Sean kelly’s take on the day’s politics:

    Risky business
    The PM’s move today seemed desperate. It was.

    BY SEAN KELLY

    esperate and transparently self-serving political manoeuvres are not always the wrong strategy. Yes, you’ll get called out on them by your opponents. You’ll endure a bad media cycle or two, because journalists – with fair reason – hate them. But of course the strategists know this in advance; it’s just the price they are willing to pay for avoiding what they’ve decided is an even worse political consequence.

    Is this the case for the government’s announcement today that it will delay the sitting of the House of Representatives by a week, until 4 December? It’s a lineball call, but I reckon the prime minister got this one wrong.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/sean-kelly/2017/20/2017/1511155867/risky-business?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Today%20%20Monday%2020%20November%202017&utm_content=Today%20%20Monday%2020%20November%202017+CID_757ac060d23eaaa7afa736edd95c06aa&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=READ%20ON

  16. kevjohnno

    Hard to judge.

    It took an awfully long time for them to really wake up to Mirabella – people in general don’t pay much attention to politics, and even less to what their local member is doing.

    There are some who genuinely believe McGowan is the vanguard for a new kind of politics, one where niceness reigns, and they don’t seem to look at much more than that.

    Really, she’s campaigned on a fraud – that she could somehow deliver better outcomes as an independent, whilst supporting the government of the day.

  17. lizzie @ #2353 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 5:01 pm

    Schloss Lulzville Schadenfreude‏ @GeorgeBludger · 17m17 minutes ago

    Funny how costings, savings, budget balancing, etc have gone right out the fucking window since Liberals formed government. Together with the use of words like “chaos” and “crisis” and “dysfunctional”… Funny.

    Yes, exactly, and our supine media play along with the whole charade.

  18. John Setka‏
    @CFMEUJohnSetka

    Dear @TurnbullMalcolm .
    Thinking about shutting the construction industry down for a week while I go on leave. Buzz me if there’s a problem?
    @CFMEUJohnSetka

  19. Confessions says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 5:33 pm
    Question:

    Either that or Thunderstruck!

    Couldn’t help it… found a list ACDC titles that suit this government…

    Deep in the hole
    Gimme a Bullet
    Hail Caesar
    Kicked in the Teeth
    Landslide
    Mean Streak
    Meltdown
    Miss Adventure
    Moneytalks

    That will do, I’m getting bored now…

  20. Yes, whatever one thinks of McGowan MP she will always be remembered for bringing an end to the political career of Sophie Mirabella.

  21. Thanks Z

    I’s funny how independents seem to hold support for so long with achieving much for their electorates.
    I guess voters just like to be seen as independent.

  22. Question @ #2389 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    Confessions says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 5:33 pm
    Question:

    Either that or Thunderstruck!

    Couldn’t help it… found a list ACDC titles that suit this government…

    Deep in the hole
    Gimme a Bullet
    Hail Caesar
    Kicked in the Teeth
    Landslide
    Mean Streak
    Meltdown
    Miss Adventure
    Moneytalks

    That will do, I’m getting bored now…

    Why not include Trumble’s theme song ?- Dirty deeds done dirt cheap.

  23. Really, she’s campaigned on a fraud – that she could somehow deliver better outcomes as an independent, whilst supporting the government of the day.

    It worked for Tony Crook who was elected as a WA Nat, but sat outside the partyroom declaring himself to be ‘independent’, and worked with the Gillard govt to get much needed infrastructure investment back into the electorate. Wilson Tuckey, as a govt MP was hopeless in standing up for his electorate.

  24. I looked in at Urban Wronski for an update. Latest post was titled “Turnbull’s worst week ever”!
    Only one problem – it was November 5!

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