Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

  1. J341983…….”I mean… I get how you might confuse similar sounding bands, but how in the hell to you confuse ACDC with the Mentals? “………..

    He may of been thinking of Barnaby” The Nips are getting Bigger ” Joyce.

  2. BiGD

    Maybe Belinda’s just trying to take the heat off the bakers.

    Or maybe ‘Belinda’ doesn’t exist and ‘Brad’ didn’t ring in at all … the Twilight Zone beckons ….

  3. samanthamaiden: BREAKING: @MakeMayoMatter will also front up for work on Monday tells @SkyNewsAust “its not like we don’t have things to do”

  4. Although Belinda wasn’t asked to “endorse” anyone’s wedding. She was asked to remove someone’s body hair, because body hair removal is a commercial service that she chooses to offer. Whether the person whose hair is being removed has anything to do with a gay wedding is entirely irrelevant.
    _______________________
    A tag line for her business – “Balls ain’t balls”.

  5. Tony Burke’s spray —

    ‘Well, what do you say? Today is the day that the Prime Minister decided to stop governing. Today is the day that a born-to-rule prime minister behaved like a spoilt brat and said, that if I can’t bat, I won’t let anyone play.

    Today is just an extraordinary day. The last time we cancelled a week of Parliament was back in 2005 around the time of the Bali Bombings. I have never heard of an occasion where Parliament gets cancelled because the Prime Minister is throwing a tantrum.’

  6. If two guys book a hair removal service and do not say their sexual leanings I wonder whether Belinda is able to discern straight testicles from gay ones….?

  7. The other point about Belinda the “request” was nothing to do with a wedding ceremony but a holiday the they had planned. 🙂

  8. BK @ #2302 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 4:12 pm

    Although Belinda wasn’t asked to “endorse” anyone’s wedding. She was asked to remove someone’s body hair, because body hair removal is a commercial service that she chooses to offer. Whether the person whose hair is being removed has anything to do with a gay wedding is entirely irrelevant.
    _______________________
    A tag line for her business – “Balls ain’t balls”.

    Back of wrist to forehead.

  9. sonar

    He may of been thinking of Barnaby” The Nips are getting Bigger ” Joyce.

    Or about his fathers thoughts on him and the personal implications of dealing with judgemental cats.

    Turnbull has really got to the point of being so prepared to trash anything that any self respecting gambling house owner would put him in a taxi and send him home.

  10. On a side point, is this the red herring the anti ssm lobby wants to use? Waxing/hair removal?

    Any mention of the testicals and social media (and most of society) are going to lose their shit and crack a million jokes about it.

  11. “Turnbull has the numbers and hence the confidence of the Parliament”

    hilariously dumb, even Turnbull as he rocks in his chair from side to side chanting that is he isn’t so stupid he actually believes it, it is why when he got up from his chair he pushed the scheduled sitting of Parliament back a week … ‘has the numbers’ comedy gold.

    He hasn’t had legitimate numbers since about June and he knows it.

  12. Confessions says: Monday, November 20, 2017 at 4:16 pm

    victoria, phoenixRed:

    If you’re around I’ve been following this bloke on twitter. He makes some interesting observations.

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson

    *******************************************

    Hi Confessions – its probably some sort of ethics – and I can’t speak for Victoria – but I tend to follow Civil Rights Lawyer Andrew Laufer who gives NO BS legal opinions of US laws that he makes in simpler terms so even non-legal persons like me can understand ( BTW – Andrew is not a fan of Seth – but I try fill up on what both have to say ) . and he is an integral member of *Team Patriot* who Victoria and I are followers of ….

    Have a look : https://twitter.com/lauferlaw

  13. Seth Abramson‏Verified account @SethAbramson
    24m24 minutes ago
    (THREAD) In this thread, a longtime criminal attorney analyzes one of the most pressing questions in American life today: how long will the Russia probe go on?

    Read on for an answer, and please share this thread widely.

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/932474004593696770

    A long read (by twitter standards), but some interesting points. I’m guessing this is in response to the WH dump this morning that the Trump legal team have advised the president Mueller’s investigation will be concluding soon.

  14. Wilkie must be getting some pretty bad internal polling numbers.

    Describing a free stunt as “an expensive stunt” is an attack on Labor, the Greens and the rest of the crossbench.

    Yes, taxpayers will be charged for a flight. But they would be charged for a flight a week later otherwise.

    No, taxpayers will not be charged for accommodation. Politicians have accommodation in Canberra already sorted and it doesn’t cost any more

    What costs does Wilkie think are going to be incurred by people sitting on Parliament House lawn and taking the piss out of Turnbull?

  15. But no speaker?

    Adam Bandt ️‍‏Verified account @AdamBandt · 21m21 minutes ago

    Turnbull has cancelled Parliament because he’s terrified of many things, including the Greens’ banking inquiry bill – which has already passed the Senate – passing the House. I’ll be at work on Monday because I think there’s a majority there to pass it.

  16. Fess

    Like PhoenixRed I follow Andrew Laufer rather than Seth Abramson. Many of those we follow on team patriot are not fans of Seth either for some reason. From recollection, initially Seth was on a tangent where he was very dismissive of any other view apart from his own. He could have changed tack these days

  17. dtt

    ‘If you live in the West of Sydney and you have working class roots then good on you’

    You seriously think I live in the West of Sydney?

  18. Remember when we were all treated to the poor, abandoned, flat renting boy with his father scratching a living and Malcolm doing it tough as a kid. Poor Malcolm is gunna trash the place on the way out. As correctly described by Shiftaling earlier….. bizarre!
    Name the first dropkick from the coalition to stand up and claim that Labor can’t manage the economy. Thanks to the stability of the Rudd Gillard Rudd years, the economy and country has been able to maintain a steady course despite the the ridiculous Abbott Turnbull mob once they were given live ammunition.
    And i was wondering if this week would be the calm before next weeks, now the following weeks or when ever storm.
    Look what’s happened in one day. Now Malcolm has to get through two weeks. The legendary Turnbull bad luck!

  19. CTar1 @ #2310 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 12:18 pm

    sonar

    He may of been thinking of Barnaby” The Nips are getting Bigger ” Joyce.

    Or about his fathers thoughts on him and the personal implications of dealing with judgemental cats.

    Turnbull has really got to the point of being so prepared to trash anything that any self respecting gambling house owner would put him in a taxi and send him home.

    He could chosen this. He would have been wrong on Country and band but it reflects his situation.
    https://youtu.be/NVFbNYNPbUY

  20. VE

    No, taxpayers will not be charged for accommodation. Politicians have accommodation in Canberra already sorted and it doesn’t cost any more

    In Canberra they get around $250 per diem. It doesn’t matter about ‘arrangements’.

  21. @IoM

    Any mention of the testicals and social media (and most of society) are going to lose their shit and crack a million jokes about it.

    Your post was directly next to WB’s preferred PM graphic in the sidebar. And combined with the context of your comment, I noticed it looks like a penis

  22. sspencer_63: Pyne has just confirmed Cabinet will still meet Monday, and the Senate, so, most of the Coalition will now be here. Just can’t be bothered doing their day job.

  23. Indeed. I was wondering if this wasn’t some kind of set-up so Belinda whoever-she-is could rant on about SSM and her supposed jesus freedoms.

    Sounds awfully contrived to me. Either someone’s shit-stirring her, or she’s made it up.

    Anyway, what good Catholic business does full body waxes? What does Belinda think her customers get them done for? That “clean all over” feeling?

  24. vic:

    For US politics I tend to avoid social media simply because I don’t know enough of the commentators to gauge how seriously to take them. I happened on Seth Abramson today and found some of his points quite logical.

  25. @Ctar – either parliament is sitting next week or it is not.

    if it is sitting, then Wilkie’s statement that “no one outside the Government can force a sitting of parliament” and that the whole thing is a stunt is incorrect.

    If it is not sitting, then the Politicians won’t get the $250, because they are simply voluntarily turning up to CBR a week early and the $250 is only for when parliament is sitting.

    So it can be an expensive non-stunt. Or it can be a non-expensive stunt. But it cannot be an expensive stunt.

  26. … most of the Coalition will now be here. Just can’t be bothered doing their day job.

    Massola can’t bring himself to call it anything other than an “unusual” action.

    I’m just trying to imagine Gillard cancelling Parliament because she was worried about being in minority government.

    Can youse IMAGINE what the CPG would say? Dummy spits everywhere just when she started wearing spectacles and then told us all what date the 2013 election would be on.

    “ExTRORDinry!!!” they all said. “Does she think Parliament is her plaything???”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/as-long-as-it-takes-turnbull-government-delays-parliament-to-deal-with-marriage-citizenship-20171119-gzoqbs.html

  27. lizzie @ #2322 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 3:31 pm

    But no speaker?

    Adam Bandt ️‍‏Verified account @AdamBandt · 21m21 minutes ago

    Turnbull has cancelled Parliament because he’s terrified of many things, including the Greens’ banking inquiry bill – which has already passed the Senate – passing the House. I’ll be at work on Monday because I think there’s a majority there to pass it.

    Whomever’s there will have a quorum and can nominate their own speaker pro tempore?

  28. I do not believe labor has stated it will support the move by Bob Katter to hold a ” government in exile ” sitting week.

    Shorten and Burke have simply confirmed labor will turn up in Canberra on Monday and take it from there.

    Cheers.

  29. WeWantPaul @ #2315 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 12:23 pm

    “Turnbull has the numbers and hence the confidence of the Parliament”

    hilariously dumb, even Turnbull as he rocks in his chair from side to side chanting that is he isn’t so stupid he actually believes it, it is why when he got up from his chair he pushed the scheduled sitting of Parliament back a week … ‘has the numbers’ comedy gold.

    He hasn’t had legitimate numbers since about June and he knows it.

    You seem to have an issue discriminating between now, the future and the past.

    How many votes in the House of Reps has the Government lost since June?

    Your projecting a possible future on now, it doesn’t work that way.

  30. Confessions says: Monday, November 20, 2017 at 4:30 pm

    phoenixRed:

    Yes, I’ve seen the Laufer account previously. You’re right that he is a straight shooter!

    ********************************************

    Andrew Laufer is fantastic to follow – brilliance, with a sense of humour …

    Two other brilliant legal minds to look at are :

    https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes

    and the master of US Law/US Constitutional law : Laurence Tribe

    https://twitter.com/tribelaw

  31. If anyone tries to enter the Chamber and the Sergeant At Arms tries to block them, then all hell will break loose.

    Of course if it happens it will all be Bill Shorten’s fault.

    WHAT was Turnbull thinking?

  32. VE

    If it is not sitting, then the Politicians won’t get the $250, because they are simply voluntarily turning up to CBR a week early and the $250 is only for when parliament is sitting.

    Malcolm could be stupid enough to say that no Parliamentarians have ‘parliamentary business’ to see to in Canberra, or any other place in Australia next week, so no ‘allowances’ are due but I doubt it.

  33. Bushfire Bill @ #2331 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 12:36 pm

    Indeed. I was wondering if this wasn’t some kind of set-up so Belinda whoever-she-is could rant on about SSM and her supposed jesus freedoms.

    Sounds awfully contrived to me. Either someone’s shit-stirring her, or she’s made it up.

    Anyway, what good Catholic business does full body waxes? What does Belinda think her customers get them done for? That “clean all over” feeling?

    Maybe it’s just that gay men don’t respond to her in the right way! 🙂

  34. Turnbull’s moment of reckoning cannot be far off. The morning of the return of the House – 4 Dec – may well be his last in office.

    He has lost all credibility and authority. It can only be a matter of days before his party dump him.

    Dutton or Bishop?

    Who will they chose to sacrifice?

  35. Piss weak from Wilkie. Yes it’s a stunt if he and McGowan stay home. Everyone turns up and it’s not a stunt any longer, it becomes a serious constitutional question of if a party with at best 50% of the votes on the floor if their speaker resigned can cancel the scheduled sitting of Parliament in defiance of the wishes of the other 50%.

  36. Zoomster

    Why is it all about YOU.

    Of course you do not live it Sydney. None of my discussion ever related to you.

    You just bought in where you had only a passing relevance.

  37. There was a story last week that happy clapper Morrison had returned to the leadership fray by taking a stance on “religious protections” in a SSM bill. Perhaps he sees himself making an inside run along the straight to overtake the favourites.

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