Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

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  1. Strathfield for me. They used to tell us it was “The Western Suburbs”, now “Inner West”

    Kids at our school were mostly Anglos, Western European, with a smattering of Mediterranean. ONE Lebo, for a couple of years. No Asians that I can remember.

    Most came from west of Ashfield.

    Lots of them became doctors and lawyers, a couple went for Holy Orders too. A substantial smattering of politicians and “social activists” as well. Contrary to what I believed at the time the school (at least my graduation year) turned out to be a Lefty breeding ground.

    But this was when “Catholic School” *meant* you had to be Catholic to enrol. Christian Brothers in charge. So hardly surprising that there were few from other religions.

    I didn’t stray far afield from Strathfield, but used to ride my bike through Rookwood cemetery (if that counts).

    As soon as I came of age I shot through. Couldn’t wait to get out of the place, and the area.

    Went to Auburn a few years ago for lunch and was struck by how much more interesting it is today than I remembered it as a kid. Lately it’s the United Nations, in a good way.

    Strathfield was the seat of Lowe then: Billy McMahon was the local member.

  2. Ctari

    Agree

    What is it about African leaders that makes their wives try to seize power – Winnie Mandela etc.

    This is a question for anyone who may actually KNOW. Is it because these leaders choose wives from politically powerful houses (I am thinking Anne Boleyn and the Howards) or is it that clever ambitious women are attracted to the leaders (and vice versa)

  3. C@tmomma @ #1865 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 7:52 am

    shiftaling,
    I think the Cons are attempting to be tricky. Maybe even mean and tricky! Now I don’t know this for sure but, as with the Defamation laws, it could be hoped that these new Rights could become the preserve of those with deep pockets, eg the Churches, to bring cases where they identified their ‘Rights’ had been abused. Whereas, gays who may want to bring a case against someone with religious beliefs who had discriminated against them, may not be able to afford to go up against that person, who would be backed up by the Church they were a member of and their expensive Barristers.

    So there could conceivably be Rights for all enacted but not a level playing field.

    Hi C@t

    There’s some good reading here about the Masterpiece Cakeshop case in Colorado pivoting on the interpretation and application of their First Amendment; the Cakeshop is appealing the decision against it. There are parallels here, and our lot are barking up the same tree, with the ultimate extension ‘every citizen becomes a law unto himself’, and ‘exceptions would very quickly swallow the rule”.

    According to his conscience, as Abbott has already started spruiking, and now Morrison whose been biding his time and protecting his arse, piss weak I reckon, jumps on the bandwagon.

    Let Them Buy Cake, from the New York Review of Books ~

    http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2017/12/07/let-them-buy-gay-wedding-cakes/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NYR%20Germany%20wedding%20cakes%20Puerto%20Rico&utm_content=NYR%20Germany%20wedding%20cakes%20Puerto%20Rico+CID_ca9b7eb8ad9c59ca61a8394531e1c19e&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_term=Let%20Them%20Buy%20Cake

    wrt Edit Function, I think the ideal would be a Preview Window without a time clause.

  4. rhwombat @ #1890 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:28 am

    lizzie @ #1887 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:25 am

    I’ve just done my morning stroll around the front garden and the ‘bloody wombat’ has dug up the same patch of bulbs for the third day running. I suppose I’ll have to find another spot. Sigh.

    I’m sorry Lizzie – I didn’t know they were your bulbs.

    I had you pegged as a reactionary hard-man wombat. Now I know for sure that’s what rhwombat stands for! 😉

  5. shiftaling @ #1860 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 3:40 am

    I’m also a bit confused as to what they think they can achieve with a separate bill of rights. If the debate even raised a whimper of interest in the electorate it would surely be to highlight that all people’s rights are due protection and any attempt to make it about religious privilege would throw the hypocrisy into such sharp relief that it would be a huge own goal. We might see a lot of arguments that gays and single mums have a right to not be sacked etc etc

    I’m am far from being sold on any Bill of Rights.

    The US presents two clear examples of the good and bad.

    The Right to Equality has facilitated progressive change in many areas most notably recently when SSM was legalised without the need for any legislative change.

    On the other hand you have the Right to Bear Arms. Irrespective of the reasons, right or wrong, at the time of including it, it has led to a situation that is abhorrent to the ideal of a sane and rational Society.

    So I see the strength of a Bill of Rights also as its weakness as it locks into a constitutional framework something that is then difficult to change.

    I suppose my other major problem with a Bill of Rights is that it is inherently a libertarian document that values the Rights of the Individual of the Rights of the Society.

    I the area of Equality I would strongly argue that this should be an absolute feature of any Society but in other areas I do not necessarily believe it to be so absolute.

    Finally, the idea of RWNJs drafting a Bill of Rights is a terrifying prospect as to what it would and wouldn’t contain.

  6. 93 year olds have a terrible tendency to go to bed one night and just not wake up. So sad. Have a big memorial service.

    It’ll be the hangers on that pay the price for Mugabe.

  7. DTT once the Minah birds decide to mob you they never let up.

    You can argue your case till you’re blue in the face. Doesn’t matter if you’re civil and don’t abuse anyone with accusations of mental health problems, or accusations they’re trolling you. It won’t do any good. You’ll get abused and trolled anyway.

  8. With the Liberal party in Victoria seriously proposing to withdraw from contesting inner city Melbourne seats (I’m listening to Michael Kroger saying this on radio atm), some interesting scenarios arise.

    If the Liberals withdraw, the best strategy for Labor would still be to contest these seats, but not worry too much if they’re won by Greens (likely, given the way Liberal preferences flow), instead concentrating on winning outer suburban and regional seats from the Liberals.

    Which would make most of the inner city Green, but with MPs elected via traditional Liberal voters, which – one would imagine – would make them more Liberal friendly.

    The Liberals would lose more seats to Labor on the city fringes (over time) as Labor directs more resources – including quality candidates – to them. This would result in the Liberals seriously contesting more ‘bush’ seats, putting them at odds with the Nats.

    It’s interesting that the Liberals are prepared to basically give seats to the Greens, rather than let Labor win them. Suggests that, despite their rhetoric, they’re more comfortable working with Green MPs than Labor ones (in a converse situation, I don’t think Labor would concede seats so that PHON could win them).

  9. That’s right, BB. It’s okay for dtt to slur Labor supporters here, it’s not OK for us to fight back.

    It’s that old tolerance being a one way street thing again.

  10. Good morning

    On the Marriage Equality by Christmas.

    When Dutton said he would be voting yes was when the right went feral and did that stupid and dinosaur move to cut abortion from Medicare.

    So now they are stuck with doing a seperate bill of rights later.

    I hope they do. It will bea can of worms for them.
    It would mrean legislation far stronger preventing discrimination against our First People Gender Sexuality as well as religion.

    The Greens of course will want to add environment.
    Tech people will want the right to privacy and warrants before intrusion into any electronic devices Pand storage in the cloud.

    Lots more. What a spectacular own goal.
    Bring it on 🙂

  11. C@tmomma @ #1901 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:43 am

    rhwombat @ #1890 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:28 am

    lizzie @ #1887 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:25 am

    I’ve just done my morning stroll around the front garden and the ‘bloody wombat’ has dug up the same patch of bulbs for the third day running. I suppose I’ll have to find another spot. Sigh.

    I’m sorry Lizzie – I didn’t know they were your bulbs.

    I had you pegged as a reactionary hard-man wombat. Now I know for sure that’s what rhwombat stands for! 😉

    Oooh ! That smarts. I’m just really-muddle-headed, but can’t spel.

  12. dtt

    I know someone who mumbles. When people misunderstand him, he doesn’t assume that it’s their fault, but wonders whether he didn’t speak clearly enough.

    Think about it.

  13. Z,

    The Libs probably calculate that they win long term if they force Labor to always govern in coalition with the ‘extreme Greens TM’. It’s an interesting idea, and I wouldn’t completely discount it’s chances of success.

    Labor could always counter by refusing government with Greens support and letting them take their Liberal voters abandoned by the Libs into Coalition with the Coalition. That would be fun.

  14. rhwombat

    chuckle.

    So it’s you who have been digging holes everywhere. Why can’t you be satisfied with one? Bit of a perfectionist, are you? 🙂

  15. Ctari
    When a silly poster makes a juvenile (not even clever or funny) re a name, I expect adult posters to ignore it. I actually expected no better from Cat, but you pretend to be civilized and clever.

    Any way i will take BB’s sage advice.

    Cheep, cheep

  16. Bushfire Bill @ #1906 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:48 am

    DTT once the Minah birds decide to mob you they never let up.

    You can argue your case till you’re blue in the face. Doesn’t matter if you’re civil and don’t abuse anyone with accusations of mental health problems, or accusations they’re trolling you. It won’t do any good. You’ll get abused and trolled anyway.

    Because being accused of behaving like a 9 year old is sooo ‘civil’ right? Plus the many, many times I have had my mental competency questioned simply for being right and pointing out dtt’s hyperbole and inadequate conclusions for what they are.

    But you’ve got your cute little ‘Minah Birds’ frame and you’re going to smear and smarm yourself all over the blog with it till the cows come home I see. And I’m fair game to you, Bushfire Bill.

    Sad.

  17. ratsak @ #1913 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:54 am

    Z,

    The Libs probably calculate that they win long term if they force Labor to always govern in coalition with the ‘extreme Greens TM’. It’s an interesting idea, and I wouldn’t completely discount it’s chances of success.

    Labor could always counter by refusing government with Greens support and letting them take their Liberal voters abandoned by the Libs into Coalition with the Coalition. That would be fun.

    Yeah. It worked so well for the LD in the UK.

  18. Ratsak

    Presumably the ALP could retaliate buy not fielding candidates in Liberal seats winable by Greens. Higgins and Wentworth perhaps.

    Mind you I cannot see this strategy paying off in most elections since there is a Senate to be won or an upper house. I think it is Kroger bravado. Might make sense in an election where there is no half senate or by-elections.

  19. dtt,
    When a silly poster makes a juvenile (not even clever or funny) re a name….Cheep, cheep

    You’re not even at the level of self-awareness of a milarian worm, are you, dtt?

  20. I grew up in Whitlam’s electorate … ‘nuff said!

    That doesn’t really mean a lot. Werriwa has been chopped and changed and bent and stretched so much over the years there would be far more areas that used to be in Werriwa than are actually in Werriwa. (my previous home being one of them).

  21. Thinking back, Strathfield was the last (sort of) “posh” suburb before you hit the Cumberland Plain and the “real” Western Suburbs began. Strathfield had a hill, for example, and on it were perched fine Federation mansions, which have all been restored nowadays, but in the 60s were in need of a coat of paint.

    It had a little shopping centre near the station with a bike shop, a Greek milk Bar and a 3-chair hairdresser. And of course Leary’s lolly shop, a dark and mysterious corner store full of large glass bottles of containing every confection known to Man.

    Now it’s all noodle bars and apartments, and Burwood’s the big deal.

  22. Ratsak, I saw Whitlam speak when I was a kid, at a rally in my electorate. He inspired me even though I’m not sure I understood everything he said.

  23. When Costello retired the Greens could’ve had a red hot go at winning Higgins, but preselected a crap candidate.

    As another PBer said yesterday, it’d be nice if the Greens put some effort into winning seats off the Libs and Nats.

  24. Honestly Ratsak et al

    I really do not think you understand Greens at ALL. I suspect that you are blinded by class hatred. Just because the Greens are better educated and probably wealthier, you seem to equate them with the corporate elite.

    That is really just thick.

    There has ALWAYS been a “bohemian” intelligentsia class associated with radical movements. Think Voltaire, Tom Paine, Bernard Shaw, Betrand Russell, Henry Lawson. Sometimes they have working class roots but often from the upper classes (Wedgewoods).

    These type of people are intellectually and morally on the left. Despite higher levels of education they stick to their principles, which is why those the Labor left recruited because of anti Uranium stickers on their Datsuns or bicycles are now leading the charge against Adani and CSG (usually with the Greens). Their sons and daughters may have joined the corporate set but probably less than half, the others supporting the Greens. These people are NOT in corporate positions rather they are teachers, academics, doctors, lawyers, senior public servants or maybe running small IT or design businesses.

    Those of you who hail from the Labor right seem mostly to come from the “working class ” spectrum of the ALP. That is good and admirable, but it is not sensible if at the same time you disparage the educated wing and drive them away. After a time your only allies will be One Nation.

  25. Tolerance is a two way street is a two way street is very true.

    So are bullies like Trump that say both sides are the same.

    I did not read DTT’s comments. I have said I think DTT comes out with some ridiculous things. Including falling for Russian troll sites.

    However when someone comes back with questions about mental health they are in fact being abusive especially when its a pile on.

    I have seen people raise questions about the mental health of DTT.

    So what’s happening is it a two way street or is it someone overwhelmed with the both sides are the same making a stupid comment due to the sheer volume of attack.

    Of course making attacks on the basis of mental hralth is wrong. Kind of like saying someone may have OCD.

  26. BB – still in Strathfield and you’re right. The demographic has changed and is now principally Korean restaurants. But for me, as a non-driver, it is a great place to be since it is a public transport hub.

    And the jacarandas are stunning right now!

  27. BB – I’ve said it on here before that there are things that dtt clearly knows about and can give a decent coverage of but there are also things she knows zip and makes broad brush proclamations about or where her views are so biased they are laughable.

    When dtt is on the money and I have something to say about what she’s said I engage sensibly.

    You’ve fallen out with a few posters here (most who seem to have issues with people posting on multiple blogs for some reason (FFS!) and some who have had some interaction directly with you).

    Why not just have a real spit like Boerwar and then move on?

  28. On the Green Labor war.

    A lot of Labor people need to get over themselves saying the Greens should target LNP seats and leave Labor alone.

    You want the Greens to do that you need a formal alliance so you can make deals on such things likethe Liberals do with the National’s.

  29. Barney

    I expect an English teacher to understand irony and context. NO exceptions.

    We are not year three people. Those of you with education only to year 10 may be excused from not understanding my posts. The rest of you take a hike.

  30. Life?
    Three countries; three choices of citizenship; three languages; one war; refugee; migrant; foreigner; naturalized citizen; seven schools; 14 dwellings by the time I turned 19 with a further 7 dwellings by the time I turned 25.
    My general advice?
    When in doubt just keep paddling.

  31. Ides:

    They do in O’Connor as well, but that makes no difference because Labor nor the Greens will win here.

    But still, it’d be nice to see the Greens targetting Lib seats they actually have a chance at winning. As I said with Higgins, they had a good shot, but squibbed it with a dud candidate.

  32. CTaR1

    It was a real, real spit. In retrospect the overwhelming feeling was feeling foolish for having bothered at all. It was not as if anything I said was going to make a skerrick of difference. The scroll wheel is taking a hammering.

    BTW, are you taking yourself off to Campbell Park to see the ACT’s rarest bird – the lone Crimson Chat?

  33. Fess

    I was really hoping the Greens would win Higgins.

    I hope they go as hard again next time. A few elections and the seat could fall to the Greens.

    An outcome to cheer in my view

  34. Speaking of ‘old’ Strathfield, one of my favourites was the chocolate shop ‘Treasure Island’. I did a few jobs there.

  35. On the ALP appealing to mostly ‘working class’ though, I think that is completely misguided. It appeals to intelligent, forward thinking people. Progressives.

    Most people I know are from that category (call me elitist if you like but I associate with people I identify with) and almost to a man, they are Labor leaning. Some are Green but they are less pragmatic about politics and more idealistic.

    The greens I know aren’t so much progressive as idealistic and I think that is where the difference lies. Great progressives of the past are only seen as idealistic from the perspective of history. At the time, they were likely seen more as pragmatic progressive.

    As historians, we tend to highlight the idealistic nature of their agendas and policies because we want to imbue them with a greatness based on an ideal.

    On the ground in real time, this idealism is less likely to have been in evidence – it is a romantic picture we paint from their musings and the outcome of events, which historians neatly parcel up.

    BTW Strathfield is not ALL Korean restaurants – we have great Indian and Viet as well.

  36. Wow, Nick Xenophon is being exposed as very much anti Renewable Energy and supportive of any tricky means to hold back it’s development:

    “It’s hard to think of a larger own-goal than the efforts of the four horsemen of the wind farm apocalypse – former senators John Madigan, Bob Day, Nick Xenophon and current senator David Leyonhjelm – to have done the ground work to establish a complaint commission and then found the queue of complainants almost empty,” Dr Chapman, a professor emeritus in public health at Sydney University, said.

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/desultory-wind-farm-complaints-arent-keeping-up-with-surging-industry-20171116-gzn3q2.html

    I hope the voters in the upcoming South Australian state election take note.

  37. jenauthor,
    And you are very close to Auburn, Lidcombe and Granville and their Middle Eastern restaurants accessible by the train. 🙂

  38. Last night I asked environmentalists to question what the Greens Party is doing for the environment.
    I demonstrated that since environmentalists gave up using their campaign style/election management outcomes, the environment has gone backwards.
    The reason I offered was that neither of the Parties feel they need to deal with the Greens. This cuts out players like Richo and Hill. Environmentalists’ votes are essentially neutered by the general powerlessness of the Greens Party.
    The test was not some particular piece of party partisan politics like the CPBR. The test is the dying Great Barrier Reef, the dying kelp forests and the dying mangrove forests. Each one of those carries with it huge numbers of species and critical ecological importance.
    Not one Greens poster was able to address what for them must seem a paradox: the Greens Party is destroying the environment.

  39. J
    I am genuinely curious. I know that progressives hate neo-liberal economics and was wondering how progressives think wealth will be created in the absence of neo-liberal economics?

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