Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

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  1. I wonder if the media narrative on SSK will change to “it is important to get this right”.

    It looks like there will be tension between those on the right who want it off the table and others who will dig in, they see this as a good chance to further extend religious exemptions.

    Also I will ScoMo will take a lead in the No camp hoping to bypass Dutton as the wonder boy of the right.

  2. Thanks BK

    The behaviour of this CWA member is so very similar to certain Senators!

    Justice Adamson noted in her judgment that Mrs Collier’s behaviour during the trial reflected the complaints made about her by other members.

    Mrs Collier muttered that the CWA counsel Sue Chrysanthou was “dyslexic” for referring to a cleaner as “Steve” instead of “Stephen” and spoke over the top of other witnesses, counsel and the judge herself.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/cwa-defeats-defamation-action-by-belligerent-wellington-branch-secretary-marion-collier-20171118-gzo5h1.html

  4. If they try to stymie SSM this year is there anything to stop the supporters on the Liberal side voting together with Labor and the Greens to guillotine debate and simply pass the bill as is?

  6. More than 50 of Melbourne’s busiest road intersections will be removed by replacing traffic lights and roundabouts with underpasses if the Coalition wins government next year.

    Opposition Leader Matthew Guy has pledged “the biggest traffic congestion-busting project in Victoria’s history” and will spend billions of dollars grade-separating major intersections around Melbourne and Geelong.

    The project is modelled on Labor’s popular level crossing removal program, but is targeted solely at roads.

    …Funding would come from a roughly equal three-way split between the state and federal governments and the proceeds of the sale of Snowy Mountain Hydro Scheme.

    The project would create roughly 5000 direct jobs, the Coalition said.

    …If the Coalition is elected Melbourne could have three major freeways under construction at the same time; the East West Link, the North East Link and the West Gate Tunnel.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/bottleneck-blitz-liberals-leader-matthew-guy-promises-to-remove-55-road-intersections-20171119-gzojcr.html

  8. shiftaling @ #1851 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 7:15 am

    If they try to stymie SSM this year is there anything to stop the supporters on the Liberal side voting together with Labor and the Greens to guillotine debate and simply pass the bill as is?

    Only a motion passed in caucus to direct all MPs to vote a certain way. Though I’m not sure that with a subject as politically charged as SSM that that would happen. Plus, there would be a revolt of the Members who were behind the push in the first place.

    Therefore the other scenario comes into play that enough of the Lower House MPs behind the Bill would demand a Free Vote of the Coalition, and then combine with the Labor, Green and other Cross Bench members on the floor to guillotine it through the parliament before christmas.

    I also think that what Peter Dutton indicated, as highlighted on Insiders yesterday, that he and the other ranking Conservatives in the caucus were inclined to throw teh gays a bone and let SSM go through without major or many Amendments, then concentrate their fight next year on their ‘Bill of Rights’, which Canavan has been touting.

  14. lizzie @ #1858 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 7:34 am

    The Edit function was slow and clumsy. Quicker to add another corrective post if change is as important as that.

    I liked having 5 minutes to make a few corrections to clarify meaning and grammar.

    There’s something about seeing it up on the page, rather than in the box that aids understanding and coherence. Maybe it’s because I’m a ‘9 year old’? 🙂

  15. I’m also a bit confused as to what they think they can achieve with a separate bill of rights. If the debate even raised a whimper of interest in the electorate it would surely be to highlight that all people’s rights are due protection and any attempt to make it about religious privilege would throw the hypocrisy into such sharp relief that it would be a huge own goal. We might see a lot of arguments that gays and single mums have a right to not be sacked etc etc

  18. shiftaling,
    I think the Cons are attempting to be tricky. Maybe even mean and tricky! Now I don’t know this for sure but, as with the Defamation laws, it could be hoped that these new Rights could become the preserve of those with deep pockets, eg the Churches, to bring cases where they identified their ‘Rights’ had been abused. Whereas, gays who may want to bring a case against someone with religious beliefs who had discriminated against them, may not be able to afford to go up against that person, who would be backed up by the Church they were a member of and their expensive Barristers.

    So there could conceivably be Rights for all enacted but not a level playing field.

  20. “If they try to stymie SSM this year is there anything to stop the supporters on the Liberal side voting together with Labor and the Greens to guillotine debate and simply pass the bill as is?”

    The Coalition Right have successfully stymied SSM for several years, so it could happen. Crossing the floor is normally a career-ending move – no preselection, no post-retirement sinecure.

  21. Sara‏ @_sara_jade_ · 13h13 hours ago

    Malcolm Turnbull “Only the LNP can do it!” Another day another lie! BL #Pinocchio effect LNP Campaign Launch. QldElection #auspol

  22. Amy Remeikis at The Guardian says that both Turnbull and Shorten have been relatively quiet in the QLD election campaign. Id wager Turnbull is not popular in the three corner seats and has been told to stay south of the Sunshine Coast.

  24. Morning all

    I hadn’t realised this had occurred. What “is” going on? Talk of Barnaby has gone very quiet indeed.

    Noely
    Noely
    @YaThinkN
    ·
    Nov 19
    At start of campaign, Joyce was on ABC, SKY etc getting favourable coverage with NO coverage of other candidates? Now, silent?

    What is really going on? What is Joyce hiding from dissing the electorate with his boycott of public forums?
    Lynda Lee
    @Leel06Lee
    Candidates hit out against Barnaby Joyce’s boycott of public debates

  25. Zooms was asking about Western Sydney peeps…

    Like Bemused born in Auburn (I assume he means Auburn District Hospital).
    Lived in Auburn until I moved out of home and bought a house in Campbelltown.
    Life long Western Suburbs Magpies fans (fuck the Tigers, greens voting poseur wankers)

    No one is more westie than me mate.

    Lived through the transition of the Auburn area, but even in the 70s it was a very diverse area. My primary school classes had plenty of white anglos like me, but also Greeks, Cypriots, Maltese, Italians, Yugoslavs, Russians, Phillipinos, Uruguayans and probably others I can’t remember. My little sister’s best friend was an Indian girl. The first Islamic kid arrived in the school about 1978. Through the 80s my younger brother and our neighbours saw the Islamic population rise and then followed by Asians such as the Vietnamese. Half my football team was Turkish by 81. Had my first Doner Kebab from Auburn Road in about 82! Watched the big Mosque go up in the 80s.

    These days it’s a great melting pot of a place. Lots of Africans now like Somalis to blend in with the established Turkish/Lebanese Moslem and Asian populations. It was never really white bread in my life time. Full of wogs and reffos. It’s just the type of wogs and reffos that has changed.

  28. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 13h13 hours ago

    Big fuss on SBS over Shorten campaigning in Bennelong instead of QLD.
    How dare he prioritise!
    Labor bashing on all channels. LNP clearly desperate.

  30. I wonder how many of the 17 candidates are actually invited to these debates anyway. They normally shut out anyone who isnt from a main party. Hardly representative.

  33. OK, but I think I’ve established that, contrary to dtt’s assertion, not all Labor people live in Western Sydney.

    Funny how often that happens with dtt…

    Of course, we might still all be reffo hating homophobes…

  34. Shiftaling
    The Greens have a history of last minute self-rightness “we want to be the kingmaker today” madness.
    Could they stymie the swift passage of SSM Legislation for
    something best kept for another time ?
    The more you see of the inner city rise of the greens and the SSM yes votes in the blue ribbon liberal seats you could be close to the mark in suggesting the same demographics apply to the new inner city seats and traditional blue ribbon liberal seats.
    Are the Greens the new tag for the liberals when you’re not having a liberal!
    From last night I was surprised to find that Stanmore, Ashfield and Strathfield are no longer in the West. And Bankstown a good place to hunt rabbits gone urban! Manly was a working class suburb and is Matraville part of the Eastern Suburbs perhaps !
    I would like to suggest also that the new popularity of NSW government schools is closely aligned with the massive tech revolution we are part of and as such negates any perceived advantage the inherent within the private school system. It would also explain the new popularity for Catholic schools.

  35. Lizzie

    It does appear that way. I saw a tweet suggesting that someone well known to Barnaby used the electorate vehicle and went around town telling everyone not to vote for him and reasons way. Don’t know if any truth to it though. But it would explain Barnaby going silent for past week or so

  39. ratsak @ #1871 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:02 am

    Zooms was asking about Western Sydney peeps…

    Like Bemused born in Auburn (I assume he means Auburn District Hospital).
    Lived in Auburn until I moved out of home and bought a house in Campbelltown.
    Life long Western Suburbs Magpies fans (fuck the Tigers, greens voting poseur wankers)

    No one is more westie than me mate.

    Lived through the transition of the Auburn area, but even in the 70s it was a very diverse area. My primary school classes had plenty of white anglos like me, but also Greeks, Cypriots, Maltese, Italians, Yugoslavs, Russians, Phillipinos, Uruguayans and probably others I can’t remember. My little sister’s best friend was an Indian girl. The first Islamic kid arrived in the school about 1978. Through the 80s my younger brother and our neighbours saw the Islamic population rise and then followed by Asians such as the Vietnamese. Half my football team was Turkish by 81. Had my first Doner Kebab from Auburn Road in about 82! Watched the big Mosque go up in the 80s.

    These days it’s a great melting pot of a place. Lots of Africans now like Somalis to blend in with the established Turkish/Lebanese Moslem and Asian populations. It was never really white bread in my life time. Full of wogs and reffos. It’s just the type of wogs and reffos that has changed.

    I concur. I had the privilege of working at Westmead, Blacktown and Mt Druitt Hospitals between 1980 and 1995. Westmead Hospital itself was the product of Whitlam’s vision splendid: the largest teaching hospital in the Australia, it changed the demographics of western Sydney as much as it was changed by them.

    Working there was a privilege because one could see and interact with all of the wonderful diversity and kindness of all at the most basic level of need, stripped of the false self-regard of exclusivity or economic leverage, because the biology of disease doesn’t discriminate.

  40. As I told mikh the other day, I was born in Annandale hospital, went from there to Baulkham Hills after my parents were given an acre of land as a wedding present. Parents split after 5 years, mum remarried a Bondi Lifesaver, they moved in together in Ashfield. I spent all my lower school years in Ashfield. Then we moved to Stanmore, where I lived through my high school years. Uni at Sydney, living in Balmain, Birchgrove and Lilyfield. then over to WA for 15 years. Then back up to the Central Coast, where my parents had moved to. Been here ever since, and not moving away! 🙂

  41. I’ve just done my morning stroll around the front garden and the ‘bloody wombat’ has dug up the same patch of bulbs for the third day running. I suppose I’ll have to find another spot. Sigh.

  42. lizzie @ #1885 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:22 am

    victoria

    I think Barnaby is more comfortable propping up a public bar. Has he ever fronted a public meeting? I don’t know.

    Barnaby is simply laying low and avoiding scrutiny. Then skating through the by-election to victory. lus providing pretty pictures to reinforce his ‘earthy, man of the people’ qualities. *cough*

  44. Victoria and lizzie

    I read the article on the said vehicle. The implication (note implication not allegation) was that it was one of his daughters.

    Article also implies there is a baby on the way. Perhaps Mrs Joyce and girls have been watching too much Dr Foster

  45. Seems I was right in thinking Mugabe might be having a press conference but wouldn’t announce he was standing down.

    I expect that within a month Grace Mugabe will be sorry that she didn’t take the advice of the Army last Friday to bugger off to Singapore (where the’d been offered protective residency with some conditions) and not come back.

    The new Government will be ruthless in following the money trail and won’t show much respect for the legal niceties.

    Impeachment action to start in Parliament tomorrow.

  46. Lizzie

    It was Barnaby everywhere after by election announced and now nothing at all from him. As c@t said, he is laying low until after by election.

  47. Zoomster

    I really do try to treat you as a rational person, but when you so badly misinterpret what i write, I cannot decide if you are malicious or stupid.

    Now fairly obviously I was not implying that the ALP all lived in western Sydney and hated gays and reffos. I was (you were an English teacher ffs) actually saying the total opposite. Not sure why you choose to misquote so badly. Perhaps you really did not comprehend!

    Perhaps (as I suspect) you bought into a thread and had not read the context and thought you would do a bit of mindless whacking. Oh well each to their own.

  49. Finkel skewers Coalition attempt to create panic over energy security

    New Finkel report finds no need to panic about energy storage
    A new report into energy storage commissioned by chief scientist Alan Finkel highlights the enormous opportunities for storage in Australia, but underlines how little is actually needed over the short to medium term, even at relatively high levels of wind and solar.

    The report, The role of Energy Storage in Australia’s Future Energy Supply Mix, funded by Finkel’s office and the Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA), says the required investment in energy security and reliability over the next 5-10 years will be minimal (see graph above), even if wind and solar deployment moves far beyond levels contemplated by the Energy Security Board.

    The contrast with the ESB modelling – and the attempts by Coalition parties at state and federal level to dismiss high levels of renewable energy as “reckless’ – could not be more pronounced.

    While the ESB, in arguing for a National Energy Guarantee, speaks of the system threats and urgency to act with a level of “variable” renewables accounting for between 18 and 24 per cent of total generation, this new report says surprising little storage may be needed with 35 per cent to 50 per cent wind and solar.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/new-finkel-report-finds-no-need-to-panic-about-energy-storage-42755/

  50. I spent some of last week in Tamworth. Lots of loud confidence and whispered disquiet amongst some of the locals. The stench of corrupt personal power is strong, but they all know Baarnaby Beetroot will win, and a surprising number don’t like it.

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