Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

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  1. Its interesting how activist environmentalists don’t think the Greens are destroying the environment.

    When you hear Labor people saying this its as credible as the LNP in bed with One Nation saying the Greens are extreme.

  2. Not only does the Wind Farm commissioner have very few complaints but he is probably helping reduce the cost of wind farm construction. An incredible own goal by the RWNJs and X:

    “Moreover, this will have saved their much-loathed wind farm companies many millions of dollars by setting up an independent complaint investigating body, which did all the investigative work they would have had to pay for.”

  3. dtt

    Did the Greens get very far in Higgins? I’d be ‘good’ if they did but my not reliable recall on this was ‘some’ but not even close to being promising any time soon.

  4. C@t – or Uber eats (which my daughter organised the other night for a great Lebanese feed!)

    I grew up in Green Valley, better known as ‘valley of the deserted wives’ with Muslim Lebanese next door – the loveliest people you’d come across. Like others here I went to school with a gamut of nations, mostly European.

    The difference between then and now is those areas did not prohibit individual success.

    The people I grew up with a re mostly successful (sister is Uni Prof. Hubby top journalist in his field, best friend senior nursing director etc. – we all had the opportunity to go to uni and ‘make it’).

    I am not sure that is as easy for people of similar backgrounds now simply because the opportunities have such high price tags attached.

  5. One clear difference between the Greens and Labor on environmental issues is Adani and mining.

    Greens totally opposed.
    Labor only opposed to NAIF funding.
    Greens totally opposed to changes to Aboriginal Land Use Agreements.
    Labor isnt.

    In NSW, the Greens are the only party totally opposed to CSG. Labor only opposed it on the North Coast and SW Sydney.

  6. Wow Boerwar – that is a mighty big question – one I have discussed with my above-mentioned sister as her professorship is in Economics (she pals out with John Hewson at times though she is as staunchly left as she has always been).

    I do not know the answer to it. I’ll ask her directly what she thinks at Xmas and get back to you.

    Though one thing we did discuss was that the framework of the worlds financial/economic systems make it hard to make beneficial changes that are more than gradual tinkering.

  7. 😆 Just before I go out for a while I hear that the RN has a ship ‘seeking’ an Argentinean submarine between the Falklands and the Argentinean Coast.

    The RN will no doubt be able to be of unique assistance as they’ve done exactly this before.

    Practice makes perfect!

  8. Trog Sorrenson @ #1896 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:37 am

    New Finkel report finds no need to panic about energy storage

    What a shocking mess that RenewEconomy article is (n.b. the actual Finkel paper seems to be not available yet, so I can’t comment directly on that). It seems to be proposing that the grid won’t have to provide much public storage because consumers will be buying enough private storage “behind the meter” …

    “In the LOW RE and MID RE scenarios – 35 per cent wind and solar and 50 per cent wind and solar – consumer storage would theoretically be sufficient to provide the entire energy reliability requirement,” it says, although the challenge here might be in “aggregating” these resources.

    A challenge indeed, given that most “behind the meter” storage is intended to used to the individual consumers own advantage, and will not be available to the grid at times of peak usage. And so how would anyone that does not invest in sufficient private storage cope? Oh, wait – here it is …

    “The reliability requirement in these two scenarios is small, respectively requiring 1.5 and 5.0 GWh in total, and could be managed by demand responses, such as load shedding.

    Isn’t it funny how when it comes to renewables, the solution to making it cost-effective always seems to require load shedding?

  9. Boerwar

    I know that progressives hate neo-liberal economics and was wondering how progressives think wealth will be created in the absence of neo-liberal economics?

    Neo-liberal economics are essentially about wealth distribution, e.g. from public to private ownership, reducing government services, not wealth creation per se. The rich 1% don’t spend their capital, they hoard it. Inequality actually reduces economic activity in productive areas, such as goods and services, as there is less money flowing through the real economy. Instead wealth is created, for the top few percent, through financial instruments of dubious social value.

  10. I’m a bit surprised that so many commentators seem to think that the average punter will just forgive and forget the indiscretions of people like Alexander or even Barnyard. I’m not sure about that at all. I think a lot of people will be mighty pissed off that they have to comply with the law, but Alexander in particular thinks he’s above it. It’s not a great reason to drag people to a polling booth on a Saturday morning. Won’t be surprised if it is a boil-over.

  11. We know that the Greens Party is destroying the environment.

    So, how would they go with the economy?

    The far right has some tests for how reality lines up with what they expect will happen when their lot gains power. The prime example is Trump. May is another example. Brexit is another example. In each case the far right was ecstatic when der tag arrived. In each case reality has been totally different from expectations. This will not alter the far rightsa jot nor a tittle. They are ideologues. They do not do real world.

    What about the Greens? Who have been their ideological heroes who got up? Who were they ecstatic about?

    The answer is the SYRIZANs and Varoufakis. The Greens were absolutely ecstatic! Der tag of the left had finally arrived!

    So, how did that go? Much worse than Trump and May, as it turned out.

    The swaggering bluster turned into the Mother of All cave-ins.
    They negotiated in bad faith. Varoufakis was tossed out because no-one would talk about anything serious while in the same room with him.

    They beggared the Greek banking system. They beggared public servant’s pension funds. They bled the country of any existing venture or development capital. They vigorously chased capitalists and capital out the door. They are now busy selling Greek patrimony. They were forced to set up effective taxes and to actually enforce a tax regime. There is far more real poverty under the SYRIZANs than there was under their predecessors.

    And if you think the Greens are any different from the SYRIZANs, think again. There are enthusiastic Greens who think that the answer is to print as much money as you need. Others think that you can admit half a million migrants a year and it will be fine. They really, really do. Others think that chasing capital out would be a wonderful thing. Others still simply want to renationalize everything – presumably with printed money.

    These are the Greens ideologues. And it is these same Greens ideologues who are using an environmental party as a front organization to promote their ideologies.

  12. I dont think anyone here is really a communist or socialist.

    We are just opposed to private ownership of certain assests (water, power) and skeptical of privitisation.

    We like the welfare state and govt services and dont like them being cut or reduced.

    We like public transport over privately owned toll roads etc.

    We dont mind private enterprise we just dont like a govt that bow down to big companies etc. I can go on.

  13. B

    Your argument only makes sense if Australia is the only place that has coral bleaching. I am no expert, but it seems like a global phenomenon.

    Are you suggesting the Australian Greens are the only people responsible for global warming? The Australian Greens should stop China and USA emissions?

  14. lizzie
    Thanks for that response. I am trying hard to be polite about it but with half the Great Barrier Reef dead, it is pretty hard.

  15. guytaur @ #1935 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 9:15 am

    On the Green Labor war.

    A lot of Labor people need to get over themselves saying the Greens should target LNP seats and leave Labor alone.

    You want the Greens to do that you need a formal alliance so you can make deals on such things likethe Liberals do with the National’s.

    The difference between a Green/Labor alliance and the Liberal/National alliance is that in the latter alliance both sides agree to either policy compromises, or they simply accede the other party rights to specific policy areas.

    But the Greens would never contemplate compromise, and Labor would never contemplate acceding exclusive rights to the Greens in any policy area. Or at least I hope they wouldn’t!

  16. Bushfire Bill @ #1898 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:39 am

    Strathfield for me. They used to tell us it was “The Western Suburbs”, now “Inner West”

    Kids at our school were mostly Anglos, Western European, with a smattering of Mediterranean. ONE Lebo, for a couple of years. No Asians that I can remember.

    Most came from west of Ashfield.

    Lots of them became doctors and lawyers, a couple went for Holy Orders too. A substantial smattering of politicians and “social activists” as well. Contrary to what I believed at the time the school (at least my graduation year) turned out to be a Lefty breeding ground.

    But this was when “Catholic School” *meant* you had to be Catholic to enrol. Christian Brothers in charge. So hardly surprising that there were few from other religions

    In my memory without guarantee ~~~

    The Catholic lefty thing was the thing. Strathfield was a very Catholic enclave as I remember, and a bit on the posh side – wide streets, verges, substantial housing. I was upper north shore (walked to the station with the neighbour kid who became the other man on the couch with Gerard), and it was Anglo but with a smattering – in our street discreet Jews with a changed name and one Lebanese family. It was wild and wonderful, no kerbs or gutters but wild freesias to be picked on Sunday afternoon family walks after the big baked dinner after Mass. We were Irish, with a bit of Italian. A new Christian Bros school in bushland (no more) and detention also meant picking up rocks to clear the way for no. 1 oval. The one wog boy was a red haired Italian with tight pants and poor English. He copped it. I hated school, except for football, and Anton. I hated the brothers. They were cruel. The air was heavy with the DLP, and Catholics were on the edge of Sydney ‘society’, working class, never aligned with Tory WASPs.

  17. Given that we know neo liberal economics attacks regulation and distributes wealth to the rich at the expense of everything else its very Green to attack neo liberal economics.

    Its that very economic imperative so the Greens attacking that and arguing we need new economics is in fact core to fighting for the environment.

    Its just as important as being on the barricades of a protest line.

    After all no need for the protest when you have a society that respects the environment.

    This is where our understanding of living sustainably would be much better if we abandoned the Western idea of shaping our environment to suit us.

    Starting with what our First people tell us. We are caretakers of the land not owners of it.

  18. You must have a guilty conscience, c@t.

    I didn’t mention anyone’s name, and I don’t go around naming other posters as worms.

    Minah birds are great little creatures. They keep the cuckoos away from our backyard, for instance. But they do tend to panic sometimes and over-react to “threats” that aren’t really there.

    My observation is that in these flame wars it’s you who usually first escalates the tone into personal abuse. Others follow, and if the target loses their cool and responds, then it’s on for young and old.

    I have no beef with you at all. I know you don’t believe me, but it’s true. I try to keep out of your way, except to praise something you’ve said (which I do several times a week, like the comment you made yesterday about your son’s friend, McDonald’s burgers and native animal roadkill.. I thought it was hilarious and couldn’t stop laughing at the way you juxtaposed the elements of this young bloke’s character. Reading it made my day a better one).

    But keeping out of your way isn’t enough. The other day I made a comment that had absolutely nothing to do with you, or any other posters. You chimed in with some snarky remark that was completely unprovoked and uncalled for. Nobody else bit on that occasion, and the late night thread turned a little friendlier (and funnier) with a lighthearted discussion of medical procedures that old farts have to endure.

    But I couldn’t help getting the feeling that you were frustrated that the pile on which had taken up a lot of the day was over, and that you wanted to start it up again. It was as if you were saying “How DARE BB try to change the subject!”

    You keep referring to incidents that happened years and years ago, as if they happened yesterday. You go on and on about cliques and followers I am supposed to have that are entirely figments of your imagination. You bring these ancient grudges up, not me. No one gives a damn about them, except you, C@t. They’re history, and pretty insignificant history at that.

    DTT makes a couple of comments based on her personal recollections and experience, and the pile on starts again. Where do you leave off insulting people, just because you can’t be bothered debating with them?

    I’m not saying I agree or disagree with DTT, but she has a right to be at least heard, doesn’t she, without being vilified and mobbed?

    Same for me, and several others here. Our very right to express a contrary view to the zeitgeist (and sometimes any view, no matter how inconsequential) appears to be disputed. And if we stick up for ourselves the pressure is ramped up to the level of personal insult and intellectual jihad.

  19. daretotread says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 6:54 am
    Good to see Briefly, Cat and Ctari engaging meaningfully …

    You say nothing that really deserves any kind of response, dtt. Your posts are phobic…facile, spectral, stale prejudice really. You’re essentially Right-pop.

  20. Morrison desperately trying to make himself relevant amidst MP citizenship and SSM legislation:

    Scott Morrison has issued an ­extraordinary rallying call to corporate leaders to get behind the government’s tax cuts, writing to hundreds of chief executives across the country to warn them they risk a Labor government that could wreck the economy and ruin their businesses.

    The Treasurer told the business community that it could no longer “sit on the fence” when it came to supporting Coalition policy to reduce taxes.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/ceos-told-to-join-fight-for-tax-cuts/news-story/d6f09c1cbf110d8cef86b42aaae4bcf3

  21. daretotread @ #1935 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 5:15 am

    Barney

    I expect an English teacher to understand irony and context. NO exceptions.

    We are not year three people. Those of you with education only to year 10 may be excused from not understanding my posts. The rest of you take a hike.

    I’m not sure if I can really class myself as an English Teacher, that’s zoomster, maybe an English Instructor.

    Reading your posts if often like correcting writing assignments, you read a sentence and you’re stopped dead.

    This not because you have made some thought provoking point but because it is such an appallingly structured sentence that you need to try and unravel it to find meaning.

    Is it surprising that people then confuse what you are trying to say if your writing it is not entirely clear?

    We all make errors at times but I often find when reading you, especially your longer posts, that it is too much of an effort to try and decipher what you are trying to say.

    Effective writing is about clarity, this was zoomster’s point and I agree completely.

    Think about it! 🙂

  22. ‘Mind you I cannot see this strategy paying off in most elections since there is a Senate to be won or an upper house.’

    To clarify: Kroger said they would still hand out at these seats for Upper House candidates.

    …which seems a very expensive strategy; I can’t imagine many volunteers finding this inspiring.

  23. guytaur @ #1970 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 9:53 am

    P1

    So the Labor people can stop whining about the Greens competing in Labor seats.

    No formal alliance them’s the breaks.

    Labor people will no doubt stop complaining about Greens competing in Labor seats when the Greens start competing in Liberal and National seats. Until then, they are not a “party of government”.

  24. Geeze PM Brian Trumbles doing it hard on the presser that was just covered on ABC News 24 coverage. The interview was an Brissie ABC Radio one I believe.

    Unfortunately 24 crossed back to the studio as Brian continued to stumble along with his answers.

  25. @mimhoff
    That’s rich coming from people who never shut up about how the Greens shouldn’t run candidates or preferably exist.

  26. BB

    You say you have no problem with Cat.

    Then how about you stop trying to be a moderator and tell her how to behave?

    Let DTT and Cat work it out.

    Leave the moderation to William.

  27. M
    I take your point.
    The trends are these: coral bleaching is happening more frequently. It is happening over wider areas. Bleaching events are more intense (last longer and are hotter). Coral death occurs when the bleaching events cross intensity thresholds.
    Yes, bleaching and coral death is a global event and requires global action.
    Australia is fourth last in emissions action.
    Our emissions are growing.
    So, the question goes to this: what has the Greens Party delivered on this particular environmental issue?

    My view is that had those people who are very concerned about CO2 emissions run the old-style environmental campaign, one or other of the majors would have stitched up a comprehensive deal on CO2 emissions in order to get across the line in a general election on the back of environmentalists’ votes. This is how the Tasmanian Wilderness and the Wet Tropics were saved.

    The fact that the Greens Party has locked up the environmental vote effectively kills off this option.

    This might be acceptable in terms of environmental outcomes achieved by the Greens Party.

    But the Greens Party has demonstrated fairly effectively over a quarter of a century that it is unable to stitch up a comprehensive CO2 emissions scheme through its use of the BOP.

    Australia could be the top nation in terms of emissions control.
    Instead it is at the bottom.

  28. Sally McManus‏Verified account @sallymcmanus · 13m13 minutes ago

    What a joke Liberal MPs talking about the need to follow UN conventions when they are happy to ignore them when it comes to workers rights #auspol

  29. IoM
    I have just seen your post about the real differences between Greens and Labor environment policies. I have to go now but will take it up later in the day.

  30. mimhoff says:

    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 9:58 am
    Amazing how people feel entitled to tell Labor how to campaign and govern, especially those who support other parties.

    Mirrored by how many Labor people feel entitled to tell the Greens where and how to campaign.

  31. Rohan Connolly‏Verified account
    @rohan_connolly
    48m48 minutes ago
    Rohan Connolly Retweeted Karen Barlow
    Oh. My. God. I think this is Malcolm’s onion moment.

    ‘PM Turnbull again cites Mental As Anything’s “If you leave me can I come to?” when asked his fave AC/DC track @TripleMBrisbane #ACDC’

  32. briefly says:

    You say nothing that really deserves any kind of response, dtt. Your posts are phobic…facile, spectral, stale prejudice really. You’re essentially Right-pop.

    When I say “Right-pop”, it may surprise some, but I mean it. There is elitism, there’s an anti-egalitarian reflex, there’s a taste for the authoritarian, there’s condescension and arrogance. There’s contempt for working people and their social, industrial and political organs. Pop-right…antique, perhaps, but Pop-right for sure. Wot a waste of time you are!!!

  33. poroti @ #1962 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 9:47 am

    An amazing effort by the GG’s Chris Mitchell. As the photo with the headline shows, he kept a straight face while writing this. .

    ABC bias needs to end
    CHRIS MITCHELL

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/opinion/abcs-bias-and-bureaucracy-should-make-way-for-better-content/news-story/4304cd953c24e456882201f0ee4a921b

    Hahaha!

    So he wants to have 2 government ministers on AM every morning instead of just one, as an example of ‘better content’.

  34. P1

    Yeah right. More ignoring the Greens are a party of government.

    See ACT.

    Senator Nick McKim was a Minister.

    The fates have had most of the people that have the same values as Labor and Greens be in the same electorates.

    However don’t make the mistake of saying the Greens don’t go for the LNP seats they do.
    Its just they will maximise their chances to win. Given the values of the Greens and the attacks on their credibility thats mostly in Labor electorates.

    We all know the Greens will go for a Liberal or National seat if they think they can win.

    Its just the demographics of the people who have the values the Greens and Labor espouse that means they happen to be in the same seats in the city. This will change as the Greens grow.

    Its just taking longer than the Greens thought and I thought.

    With the National seats where Greens would do best its the whole the Greens want to take civilisation back to caves and using sticks and rocks argument.

    That and as Labor knows just ask Zoomster there are generations of people who vote National just because thats the way it is. That takes time to change.

  35. Peter Brent‏Verified account @mumbletwits
    2h2 hours ago
    Will someone tell Amanda Vanstone most of (all of?) these guys also opposed having a public vote?

    :large

  36. briefly @ #1986 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 10:14 am

    briefly says:

    You say nothing that really deserves any kind of response, dtt. Your posts are phobic…facile, spectral, stale prejudice really. You’re essentially Right-pop.

    When I say “Right-pop”, it may surprise some, but I mean it. There is elitism, there’s an anti-egalitarian reflex, there’s a taste for the authoritarian, there’s condescension and arrogance. There’s contempt for working people and their social, industrial and political organs. Pop-right…antique, perhaps, but Pop-right for sure. Wot a waste of time you are!!!

    You could also add devious to that list. dtt has figured out that she can only be Blocked, as an ‘Anonymous’ commenter, if we Block ALL anonymous commenters, which I will not do because their contributions are worthy, whilst hers are worthless, mean and petty. Like Trump, her hero.

    Sad.

  37. timwilsoncomau: @apicot Cultural conservative = Judeo Christian values / our way of life / family / governed from citizen-up
    Social liberal = freedom for people to choose how to live their life / self regulating / not morally judgemental / choice with responsibility

    glengyron: Every time someone says “Judeo Christian Values” they’re explicitly not mentioning one of the three People of the Book. Hint: It’s Muslims. twitter.com/timwilsoncomau…

  38. briefly @ #1986 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 9:14 am

    briefly says:

    You say nothing that really deserves any kind of response, dtt. Your posts are phobic…facile, spectral, stale prejudice really. You’re essentially Right-pop.

    When I say “Right-pop”, it may surprise some, but I mean it. There is elitism, there’s an anti-egalitarian reflex, there’s a taste for the authoritarian, there’s condescension and arrogance. There’s contempt for working people and their social, industrial and political organs. Pop-right…antique, perhaps, but Pop-right for sure. Wot a waste of time you are!!!

    As I’vv said a few times before – old-fashioned Moscow-line communist line

  39. guytaur says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 10:08 am
    BB
    You say you have no problem with Cat.
    Then how about you stop trying to be a moderator and tell her how to behave?
    Let DTT and Cat work it out.
    Leave the moderation to William.

    Says guytaur acting as moderator and telling BB how to behave.

  40. I am getting so bloody sick of hearing from ‘conservatives’ (as the ABC likes to describe them) all the bloody time.

    They dominate airtime and acres of newsprint to peddle their destructive minority views.

  41. Ctari

    They got 25% of the vote which was OK but not good enough. Kelly O’Dwyer won on primaries so it is not clear what would have happened if she had not.
    Someone commented that they chose a poor candidate – I know nothing about him

    Thing is Kelly O’Dwyer is high profile articulate and quite popular. She was also known as part of th Turnbull wing. The timing is probably not right now for a serious crack at Higgins.

    Of course the Greens are probably just a bit too left to tackle LNP seats. A Meg Lees type democrat could probably have been more successful

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