Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal

Two polls suggest Labor’s Kristina Keneally gambit is paying off – although one more so than the other.

Two polls from Bennelong:

• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.

• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,696 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Bennelong; ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal”

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  1. I looked it up.

    meta = self referential, as in critics reviewing critics.

    And, praise be, there is an edit function again. Thank you William!

  2. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    20m20 minutes ago
    Liberal’s manager of gov business @cpyne to announce amendments to marriage equality legislation in House of Representatives @SkyNewsAust

  5. Gary

    Let BB tell me what he thinks and I will respond to that.

    FWIW I think Cat goes over the top. Like saying DTT has no credibility on anything. I think DTT makes sense at times.

    However its not up to me to tell cat how to make her arguments.

    That would be me telling her to shut up.

  6. Thing is Kelly O’Dwyer is high profile articulate and quite popular.

    O’Dwyer had no profile when she first ran for office. Back then the Greens had real shot at Higgins but stuffed it up with a dud candidate. And don’t take my word for it, here’s Poss back in the day articulating what a lot of others thought:

    The Greens have chosen a pro-net censorship, hysterical purveyor of moral panics and all round crypto–communist to stand in the Liberal heartland seat of Higgins.

    A seat where the ALP isn’t running, where the Greens actually stood a chance to take the seat with a really good candidate – but where, instead of showing some political smarts and pre-selecting a blue-Green, have opted to alienate half the electorate straight way and chosen a red-Green in the form of Clive Hamilton .

    Absolutely baffling.

    https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/10/23/greens-choose-moralising-crypto-communist-for-higgins/

  7. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    5m5 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Parliament will NOT resume on Nov 27 @cpyne announces won’t come back until Dec 4 to deal with SSM

  8. I am glad the edit is back.

    With a little time. I changed a reflex response into a more sensible post.

    Thank you William for restoring it.

  9. No Barney

    I wrote a post that quite obviously and quite deliberately used slang in a fashion to indicate a point. This was not a long post and it SHOULD have been obvious to any High School English teacher.

    NO EXCEPTIONS, NO EXCUSES

    For what it is worth I am a terrible typist, worse proof reader and I make heaps of errors. By all means quibble on them.

    But when I make an obviously ironic comment I do resent being held to account over it as if it were my views.

    Sorry BiGD, the only people who look like twats are those who either cannot see the irony or who try to defend those who either through malice, laziness or stupidity misunderstood.

    Toodle pip.

  10. Adam Gartrell‏Verified account @adamgartrell
    4m4 minutes ago
    More Adam Gartrell Retweeted Samantha Maiden
    Also means the House citizenship disclosures will be pushed back from Dec 1 to Dec 5 #auspol

  11. Confessions @ #1998 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 6:35 am

    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    20m20 minutes ago
    Liberal’s manager of gov business @cpyne to announce amendments to marriage equality legislation in House of Representatives @SkyNewsAust

    Why don’t they introduce then into the Senate?

    If amendments pass in the Reps it will mean delaying the bill as it will have to go back to the Senate.

    Arseholes!!!!!!! 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁

  12. Confessions

    I do not pretend to have an in-depth knowledge of Clive Hamilton, but if he was the same one who started up the Australia Institute, i think perhaps Possum was being a little harsh.

  15. Well, I’m one.

    Bernard Keane‏Verified account @BernardKeane · 17m17 minutes ago

    Bernard Keane Retweeted Rob Stott

    genuinely surprised that anyone who lived in Australia in the 1970s could not name at least 3 AC/DC hits, even if they had zero exposure to popular culture.

  16. Obviously the house running without Barnaby and Alexander has scared Malcolm Turnbull. So prorogue the house it is.

    Can labor and the crossbench with enough votes overturn it?

  17. John Wren
    John Wren
    @JohnWren1950
    ·
    2h
    Kroger on @abcmelbourne. He’s talking absolute bullshit. Libs didn’t run a candidate in #Northcote because they are broke. Donations have dried up. #auspol #springst
    5
    27
    47
    John Wren
    John Wren
    @JohnWren1950
    ·
    2h

  19. Not just Possum, but Kevin Bonham as well:

    Kevin Bonham
    October 30, 2009 at 12:18 am
    Maybe net filtering has its uses in the right places.

    I’d pay $20/year extra for my Crikey sub if it came with a filter that removed all material by Clive Hamilton.

  22. He said, she said, they said, blah blah blah……………….
    Meanwhile back in the real world I wonder if there will be any movement to or from the govt in Essential tommorow.?
    Will they do a Bennelong specific poll ?
    Will Turnbull get a YES bounce..?
    (..Although he just lost whatever cred he had by naming a Mental As Anything song and attributed it to AC/DC…..lol )

  23. @ Barney – they’re introducing them in the House because they have more numbers there, and are hoping to manufacture the numbers in the Senate because the Senate will be encouraged to wave it through despite the amendments so it can be done by Christmas.

  24. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden
    3m3 minutes ago
    BREAKING: The Turnbull Government is confirming MPs who may be ineligible WILL vote on marriage before disclosure
    :large

  26. Confessions and Big D

    Your two posts following each other was good timing. Shows up what bastards the LNP are.

    To be honest I am not surprised except on how long it took them to announce them.

  27. I cannot understand why hydrogen is being touted as an alternative fuel. It is very difficult to store at high pressures (it leaks through most ordinary metal containment cylinders because the molecule is so small) .

    And at the pointy end you are still burning a fuel with all the inefficiencies inevitably involved, that are negated by using electricity in batteries instead.

    And you need to develop a distribution system for the fuel from scratch.

  30. So does anyone else think there is something that smells very fishy in regard to Parliament not coming back when due..?
    The Libs trying to hide….something….delay something…..?

  31. guytaur says:
    Monday, November 20, 2017 at 10:38 am
    Gary
    Let BB tell me what he thinks and I will respond to that.
    FWIW I think Cat goes over the top. Like saying DTT has no credibility on anything. I think DTT makes sense at times.
    However its not up to me to tell cat how to make her arguments.
    That would be me telling her to shut up.

    Using your own words then with slight amendments. It’s not up to YOU to tell BB how to make HIS arguments. That would be YOU telling HIM to shut up.
    My only point to you is that you are doing exactly what you are accusing BB of doing. Best idea, I believe, is to just to keep out of it altogether which is what I will do now.

  33. P1

    Federally given current polling Yes I agree.

    However that does not mean the Greens are not going to try and increase that vote.

    Maybe it will never go up. However as the LNP lies over the decades about the Greens keep coming undone with time I think we will see some National seats go Green.

    The sooner the better in my view. I think Christine Milne was right to say the Greens should have a long term strategy to target the Nationals. She could see what Tony Windsor tells us.

    The Nationals are not really representing regional communities. I think the Greens if they do the grass roots work can make a difference there. However it is a long term strategy requiring grass roots work.

    This is where Di Natale is right to want to remove Rhiannon from the Greens. All the stuff she talks about are exactly what turns Nationals voters off.

    Its just a pity Di Natale used poor political judgement and did it over schools

  34. Fess
    Parliament will NOT resume on Nov 27 @cpyne announces won’t come back until Dec 4 to deal with SSM

    The timing was about ensuring there would be no gay marriages before xmas, now it appears mal has folded to ensure there will be no gay marriage legislation before xmas.

    conservatives in the lnp have told mal be the grinch that ruins this last gay free xmas for us and there will be payback, like a bank inquiry.

  36. Gary

    Thats the problem sometimes. To make a point about being civil to each other we sometimes become hypocrites.

    So I am going to like follow your example and take my own advice.

  37. I’ve been ‘telling’ Greens to stop scattergun campaigns and target their efforts to seats that they can win for years. They seem to have finally cottoned on.

  38. On the change to sitting times

    JoshButler: wow, just an amazing coincidence that this means the House won’t sit until after the New England by-election and that the government won’t be down a member, just pure coincidence, man what a coincidence twitter.com/KJBar/status/9…

  39. EBA Truth‏ @ebatruth · 6m6 minutes ago

    I started to write a letter to @theage, but the rap sheet was too long. Plus they never publish anything factual on this topic. So here ’tis. #springst

  40. Alabama media company to Roy Moore: Go ahead, sue us — we’d love to air your dirty laundry in court

    Alabama Media Group (AMG) — which operates three newspapers and the AL.com website — came out swinging against a lawsuit threat from ousted Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore by rejecting a cease and desist order and all but daring the U.S. Senate candidate and accused child sex predator to sue them.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/alabama-media-company-to-roy-moore-go-ahead-sue-us-wed-love-to-air-your-dirty-laundry-in-court/

  42. Zoomster
    It makes a certain degree of sense for the Liberals to concede otherwise Labor seats to the Greens because of legislatively pathways, the Greens may vote against you 90% of the time and Labour 70%, but if the Greens vote against Labour (but not you) 5% of the time, that works out as you getting your’re agenda threw 35% of the time instead of 30% , which is a win.

    This is a bit less tractable with PHON* because in practice they almost never vote against the Coalition and not also againt Labor. Labor would almost certainly be more willing to concede traditionally National seats to PHON if PHON walked the walk on their economic populism but they don’t , so they don’t really offer anything in terms of additional legislative pathways.

    *This is true of Bernadi and his faux-populism too. Their actual voting patterns are indistinguishable from the Liberal right.

  43. srpeatling: Mr Pyne says it has nothing to do with byelections because neither Joyce nor Alexander would be back in Parliament even if they are re-elected.

  44. michaelkoziol: Pyne: “We will sit until marriage equality and citizenship are dealt with.” Flags possible extra sitting week from the 11th of December. #auspol

  46. White House riven by fear over Mueller probe: Aides anxiously greet each other, ‘Good morning, are you wired?’

    Some officials in President Donald Trump’s White House believe the president’s attorney Ty Cobb when he says that there’s nothing to fear from special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of the administration’s ties to Russia.

    According to The Washington Post, however, others are skeptical of these reassurances and are becoming increasingly anxious and frightened over their chances of legal jeopardy as the probe closes in.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/white-house-riven-by-fear-over-mueller-probe-aides-anxiously-greet-each-other-good-morning-are-you-wired/

  48. sarahinthesen8: So, because Barnaby Joyce was sloppy with his paperwork the rest of the House of Government takes a holiday? Pathetic.

  49. don, on hydrogen storage:

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702103009222

    https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-storage

    Materials tech is moving on. Multi layer, high pressure composite tanks may be a way to go.
    And the infrastructure? I like the approach telsa seem to be taking with their new electric prime mover.

    I think its probably MUCH more cost effective to install the initial supporting infrastructure for a commercial application like that than it is to put it in for a “domestic” application like cars. When thats established build the domestic charge points piggybacking off it.

    Maybe hydrogen same same? For Australia i see a value in moving to hydrogen / electric hybrid vehicles and infrastructure rather than straight electric for a lot of applications.

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