Two polls from Bennelong:
• The Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll that has nothing separating John Alexander and Kristina Keneally on two-party preferred. The only primary vote numbers provided are 42% for Alexander and 39% for Keneally. Despite Keneally’s strong showing, only 37% rated that Keneally had done a good job as Premier, compared with 42% for bad job. The poll of 579 respondents was conducted on Wednesday evening, following the announcement of Keneally’s candidacy on Monday.
• A slightly less dramatic result from ReachTEL for the Sydney Morning Herald, with John Alexander leading 53-47 on two-party preferred – which nonetheless indicates a swing of over 6%. The primary votes seem to be a shade under 36% for Alexander and around 29% for Keneally. The poll of 864 respondents was conducted on Thursday evening. Alexander’s personal ratings (51.2% favourable versus 15% unfavourable) are rather stronger than Keneally’s (41.6% to 28.1%), and Malcolm Turnbull records a 59.7-40.3 lead as preferred prime minister.
The Nationals are not really representing regional communities. I think the Greens if they do the grass roots work can make a difference there. However it is a long term strategy requiring grass roots work.
lots of new gen “green” farmers who see the benefits of sustainable farming instead of slash, burn, chemically bomb and move onto the next paddock. Lots benefiting from renewables and against coal seam gas.
however greens prob need to tone down enthusiasm of protecting the bush and wild life a bit to discuss issues with farmers.
kangaroo cull in ACT was a joke where greens got a say with kangaroos, gently herded into enclosures before being given a sedative to calm them and then an injection to put them to sleep (final) with “skippy the bush kangaroo” playing softly in the background.
similar method of denacking them was done instead of last injection to keep population down, horrendous waste of money that could have been spent better elsewhere.
Confessions
“O’Dwyer had no profile when she first ran for office.”
O’Dwyer was essentially hand-picked by Costello – she was his staffer. Costello was hugely popular in Higgins, and a lot of Costello’s popularity rubbed off onto her. There was no way O’Dwyer was going to lose the seat.
“So he wants to have 2 government ministers on AM every morning instead of just one, as an example of ‘better content’.”
That will last only till the next election – then he will want two opposition shadow ministers on AM for ‘balance’.
El
I understand the strategy, I’m wondering about the consequences.
Concentrating your votes in a few seats – which is a good strategy for the Greens – gives you clout in hung Parliaments but gets you nowhere otherwise.
The Nats have clout because of their understanding with the Libs. If that didn’t exist, in many Liberal governments they would have had no say whatsoever.
As Boer has observed, removing Green members from the major parties has lessened the agitation for change on environmental matters within those parties. As the major parties are the parties of legislature, this has been a minus for environmental issues, not a plus.
So I’m wondering whether ‘ghetto-ising’ Green representation will have the same kind of outcome, driving both majors further to the right because they’re both contesting seats in the middle and outer suburbs and leaving the Greens a clear run in the inner city.
I can see the sense in the strategy for both the Liberals and the Greens, but I’m wondering about its long term consequences…although I assume holding inner city seats might give the Greens the resources to contest seats elsewhere.
Confessions
I think they are hoping the amendments in the lower house will force others to vote for them to get them done by Christmas.
So I can see the politicians not being able to go home for Christmas because the LNP are playing silly buggers with timing just to keep numbers in their favour.
Bernie Sanders also debunks the Lower Corporate Taxes + More jobs canard
guytaur @ #2041 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 11:07 am
So it does then. As Howard said, “It’s all about the arithmetic.”
Zoom:
To think, if I slagged off at dtt in the way she does me, BB would label me as intolerant…
Indeed, but what BB says is not important. If you are walking down the footpath and a yahoo leans out of a car as it passes you and yells stupid things, you don’t get upset, you realise it is them with the problems, not you, and have a quiet chuckle to yourself.
ajm @ 10.25…I agree..
Really, it’s simple.
Malcolm wanted the citizenship papers tabled later in the year; Bill forced him to agree to December 1.
Malcolm will now use stalling tactics on the ssm bill and refuse to deal with the citizenship stuff until it’s sorted out (for all sorts of pious reasons) just to spite Bill.
He does sooky la la tantrums so well.
Thanks, don.
zoomster @ #2043 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 11:07 am
I think since Bushfire Bill has done and won his wife’s case he has decided to take on dtt as his latest lost cause to win/ battle to fight. 🙂
guytaur @ #2037 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 7:02 am
I don’t think this is true.
I didn’t think you could sit until the vote was finalised and the writ was returned.
Zoomster
Why not a skerrick of self awareness.
I do NOT slag off at you unless you first slag off at me.
There was no reason for you to buy into the discussion on Western Sydney ALP the way you did. I was not abusing you or indeed anyone, merely pointing out that not all the ALP were the same in having a Western Sydney point of view. We were in fact agreeing.
You chose to slag of at at me and I responded.
Get it!
If i lived in Northcote would very likely have voted green, very good candidate.
Big reason would have been accountability, most minority governments are more accountable and produce great policies and results, have to work harder and smarter and be more consultative and open.
have a safe labor candidate in my seat who is more than a bit useless out of touch show pony, usually go green labor, except for 201o where lab green, then 2013 lib green.
The theories are blooming like flowers in a field
KJBar: LNP senator Barry O’Sullivan tells @RNBreakfast there could be as many as FOUR gov’t members will to cross the floor to support a Banking Royal Commission.
YaThinkN: This why we have a later start for Parliament? @cheryl_kernot twitter.com/KJBar/status/9…
Is this the laziest federal parliament ever? It fees like it’s hardly sat at all compared with parliaments of the past.
Fess
It certainly seems like it.
Of course that could be just because we had the very good very productive Labor government sitting a lot and passing 100’s of pieces of legislation.
I say Labor to include the Rudd period which sat more often as well.
Yeah, it’s the antsy Nats that have brought this cave in. Trumble was going to get his arse handed to him over the Banking RC. Nobble SSM or we cross the floor.
It’s so transparently desperate from Trumble I reckon it might even get noticed in Bennelong. But then sitting weeks never go well for Trumble either so probably no net loss.
Technically speaking everyone who lives in a compulsory preferences voting district (or has) has voted Liberal at some point……
Just not many on this blog would have put them high on the list.
Moksha….thinking of dtt’s posts….
So that great Trumble victory on SSM is going so well…
smh: The Turnbull government has taken the unusual step of delaying a parliamentary sitting, citing the need to pass SSM laws and deal with the citizenship fiasco ow.ly/f3M730gGfYT
The irony oh the irony. To pass something sooner we have to delay sitting.
How they think they are fooling anyone is beyond me.
guytaur:
Even the previous Abbott parliament seemed to keep to a more regular sitting calendar.
Fess
True. I hated the fact Abbot was PM but he was not scared to face Labor in the House. Even if he did have to install a partisan speaker to do it.
DTT, I’m sorry, I am not angry at you but you REALLY need to look at your method of posting abrupt responses and saying what others say is ‘stupid’.
If you disagree with someone’s argument you need to explain why CLEARLY. Not condemn them as stupid or failing to take the time to ‘understand’ your view.
I agree with Barney. Your posts are often so convoluted I fail to understand what the heck you’re trying to say. And if your posts are more than 3 paragraphs I rarely read them at all because the verbal gyrations are such that you render your own argument impotent.
Little bit of context. Abbott had a clear majority in the house and never lost it (90 seats). Turnbull has only had a single seat majority and has fallen into minority government. Not to rain on the parade and all.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbournes-toxic-wetlands-20171119-gzobks.html
its easier and less expensive for the greens to win seats off labor than the lnp. Why spend $1m trying to win one lnp seat when you could possibly win 3 labor seats with that money.
siding with the lnp on various issues helps the greens get onside with lnp voters and also sends a message that labor cant get things done/ amended.
It is a similar strategy to that of howard, abbott turnbull, tear down any labor policy, if a labor policy becomes popular take a two pronged approach, labor is too incompetent to properly implement and administer it and put forward a watered down alternative like FTTPv FTTN (copper), parental leave set rate for all in tandem with other negotiated parental leave/ parental leave for well off, marriage equality/ civil union two tiers right to discriminate.
booleanbach @ #2050 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 11:12 am
And the ABC will dutifully comply.
Ides I would say if you preferenced them absolutely last you couldn’t be said to be voting for someone. Also it could be said you didn’t vote for someone if you voted for the other candidate in the final runoff
IOM
I don’t think that would have stopped Abbott much as I hate his politics. Backing away from a fight is not something I would accuse Abbott of. In fact if Oakeshott and Windsor had chosen the other way that is what we would have seen.
It certainly did not stop Labor.
I do take your point however my feelings about how Abbott would have acted are not facts.
Ides:
Being a minority govt is no excuse for keeping parliament from sitting.
The delay in sitting seems to ensure that any citizenship issues will not even reach the HC until next year.
The possibility of a first hearing before Xmas would allow for the actual hearing as soon as the HC returned.
This seems to almost ensure that matters for the HC will drag on like the last bunch.
The same is potentially true for SSM as the Xmas break may impact the dotting of “I”s and the crossing of the “T”s required for it to occur even if the legislation is passed.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-20/government-cancels-week-of-sitting-for-house-of-representatives/9167950
Perhaps this is the real reason for the HoR not resuming on 27 November. However what do Turnbull & co actually gain by running a protection racket on behalf of the big banks? The stakes here must be huge.
Anthony AlbaneseVerified account @AlboMP
16m16 minutes ago
If I’d adopted this approach to the 43rd Parliament we would never have had sittings #farce
independent australia has amusing story of going ons in New England with utes and loudspeakers down the main street.
reminded of when local bloke split with his missus for a newer younger model.
small town and old and new model would frequently come across each other which involved shouting different forms of abuse across the main street at each as they went their own ways whilst we sat in the pub watching it all.
The Liberals get a lot of their money from big business and their owners. They need to be seen as being on their side.
Fess
I dont disagree. Parliament should retain its sitting dates.
@ P1
Can you explain to me the illogical obsession that seems to have arisen on the east coast with Demand Side Management (DSM)? You, like many in the discussion, seem to wrongly conflate it with involuntary load shedding.
DSM has been in operation on the SWIS, and many other places, for years. It’s not compulsory to participate in DSM, nor is it compulsory to take the DSM incentive payment. Last time I was involved in it, the incentive was $17,000 per MW* you were prepared to load shed, *should* AEMO direct you to.
DSM is massively cheaper than building power plants that will run for a couple of dozen hours per year, not to mention the grid upgrade costs required to support transmission and distribution for those couple of dozen hours per year.
* the payment has been reduced this year, I don’t know by how much.
The Nata do too but largely from Gas / Coal (who are generally international companies who couldn’t care less about the travails of Aussie banks) and Agribiz.
adrian @ #2077 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 11:36 am
What a ghastly spectre you raise although, using my powers of extrapolation, I foresee job growth in TV addons with the requirement for dual off switches retrofitting.
These switches, similar to first and second pressure trigger on our now turned in rifles and pistols also fulfill the function of enhancing index finger muscle strength giving one the ability to “give one (or other) the finger” of longer and longer periods of time.
What’s not to like ❓
As Ive said for a while. Ive had demand management for electricity for years. I run my dishwasher and washing machines over night to get the cheaper rates.
I think Bandt has made the tweet of the day
AdamBandt: Government is terrified it has lost control of Parliament. King Charles cancelled Parliaments and he lost his head. At this rate, Turnbull is not far from the metaphorical chopping block either.
To be fair prorogueing a parliament for by elections isn’t without precedent if the opposition isn’t willing to go by convention.
It’s just questionable if an undesired by the government banking RC breaks convention.
That’s standard practice during election campaigns in Japan. They also hand out little packets of paper tissues with campaign advertising (tissues are also often handed out at shopping centres to promote products).
I once came across a very loud speaker on the back of a truck and was dutifully handed a pack of tissues with a message in Japanese – you wouldn’t expect that I could vote for them but perhaps they were just being polite!
It’s quite funny in a way with the govt cancelling parliament and posters on here musing about how long it would take the LNP to have their usual weekly cock-up.
Started nice and early this week and it’s only Monday. ! lol
Lots of time left this week to try a bit harder and get more cock-ups chalked up.
simonahac: “but drownings!”
twitter.com/nytimesworld/s…nytimesworld: Veteran UN officials say they have never seen a wealthy democracy go to such extremes to punish asylum seekers. nyti.ms/2jBk7YV pic.twitter.com/4Mwmmb10AV
https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/931928515829731328
citizen @ #2095 Monday, November 20th, 2017 – 8:03 am
I don’t think in this case that was what was happening.
In one version the driver is the Members daughter, another has it as the Members mistress and the messages being voiced were not reelection slogans. 🙂
C@
Ironically, if BB had told his wife to just accept the situation and move on, as he advises the gays refused service to do, he wouldn’t have had his triumph.
BB disproves his own case – injustice needs to be challenged, not accepted.