BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Mild improvement for the Coalition in the poll aggregate this week after better results from Essential Research and YouGov (though not Newspoll).

The Coalition recovers just a little bit from its low base in this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, which incorporates new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov. The Coalition is up half a point on the primary vote and 0.3% on two-party preferred, although the bigger mover is One Nation, which came in higher from all three pollsters. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. After a leap last week on the back of the monthly Essential Research numbers, Malcolm Turnbull’s is down again on the leadership trend after a very different result from Newspoll. The bigger picture on these measures is how remarkably little change there has been since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  1. Bemused – You mentioned sometime earlier that Morrow was interviewed by ABC Radio this morning other than than the interview Peter Ryan did.

    I was hoping to listen to it before 4 Corners is on.

    I don’t seem to be able to find it? Any hints?

  2. BB – Yup, and now everybody, and I mean everybody, is going to be focused on the NBN trainwreck to see how the damage can be limited! Malcolm is such a genius.

  5. This broadband retailer has the right idea.

    “Aussie Broadband Managing Director Phillip Britt has taken another stand against congested networks by instigating what he thinks is a unique stop-sell measure.
    Phil announced the new policy to followers on Whirlpool when talking about the way that Aussie Broadband is managing its network to avoid congestion.
    “We have made the decision that if we are at 80% of the backhaul bandwidth available, and we know an order for new bandwidth is running behind schedule, we will stop selling on that POI,” said Phil.
    “That way, we don’t oversell a POI before new backhaul is provisioned. Customers can choose to wait via a presold process, or they may choose to go elsewhere.

  7. Bushfire Bill @ #1592 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 8:04 pm

    Now I’m just a mug, statementslike this seem dangerous:

    Malcolm Turnbull has labelled the national broadband network a mistake and blamed Labor for leaving the Coalition a “calamitous train wreck” of a project while responding to concerns from the NBN Co chief executive that it may not pay its own way.

    Admitting the project is a “calamitous train wreck” – but blaming someone else for it when you not only designed it as Minister, but then took Prime Ministerial oversight of it afterwards – risks the public agreeing with you about the “calimitous train wreck” bit, but dis-agreeing with you about who’s exactly to blame.

    This has the capacity to be an very large exploding cigar, right in Malcolm Turnbull’s face. No longer is he spruiking the line that the NBN is brilliantly successful. He’s admitting it’s a failure in fact. That’s a VERY BIG admission for someone who’s been specifically in charge of the project for over 4 years.

    Another inspirational political performance from our gifted, exciting leader.

    Not.

    Top post.

    My current theory is that the polls are showing support for Turnbull only because voters could not stand an Abbott return.

    Libs need to find a new revival movement or they are toast!

  9. gt

    Tks for the suggestion but Na. Sabra Lane did AM this morning. There was a brief bit about the 4 Corners program with only a short excerpt from tonight’s story but no actual interview with Morrow.

  10. CT

    Of interest to me is what Quigley has got to say.

    Going by the pollies reaction even though nothing new confirmation of what we think could make Turnbull’s leadership terminal

    More instability and chaos in the Liberal party will be good 🙂

  16. michaelkoziol: The City of Sydney tonight voted to let gay couples hire its venues free of charge for weddings for the first 100 days after the law changes

  17. CTar1

    Note the start. No profit unless it is protected from ultra-fast wireless competition. Protection it would not need if @@$$#$%#!!! Truffles had not gifted to the nation the Turnbull Fraudband.

  18. CTar1 @ #1594 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 8:06 pm

    Bemused – You mentioned sometime earlier that Morrow was interviewed by ABC Radio this morning other than than the interview Peter Ryan did.

    I was hoping to listen to it before 4 Corners is on.

    I don’t seem to be able to find it? Any hints?

    Fran Kelly, RN Breakfast.
    Morrow has been all over the place today.

  21. There was definitely an interview with Morrow on AM, though it’s not on their web site for some reason. Perhaps I imagined it.

  22. Just what is happening with The Age at the moment. Normally very friendly to Labor and the Greens but the last 2 weeks they have been very giving the Andrews government a hammering.
    Started off with survey on the female employees of the CFA being bullied and sexually assaulted in the workplace. Then a major piece on Andrews reluctance to bring the UFU into line. Today they have revisited the lack of a breath test on Andrews’s wife when she was involved in a serious car accident injuring a teenage cyclist. the news on Shortens staffer being forced to resign in a blackface incident as well as the 10 million being spent to spruik the level crossing removal program.

    All very weird.

  26. PaulBongiorno: Watching @4corners it is clear our government knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing when it comes to the NBN

  33. TheKouk: NBN strategy has all the hallmarks of Blackberry’s failure to keep up with Apple. Blackberry’s, remember them? #4corners

  34. ChristineMilne: ‘Cheaper, faster, better’ #NBN another @TurnbullMalcolm @TonyAbbottMHR lie. History will not be kind. #auspol

  35. Taylormade

    Nothing weird at all. The Age are not Labor friendly at all. The Northcote by election is due in a few weeks and anything to boost Greens chances is the the name of the game

  37. @Taylormade

    Age has always been anti-Andrews. I don’t think latest hit pieces will do much though. There is little substance to the stories.

  39. This article from the ABC this morning reads as thought it was some wealthy home owner has paid over $200k to have fibre connected. I had a bit of a nosy – Shaw is a new nth Townsville suburb.

    Houses for sale there are around the $400,000 to $500,000 mark but guess what? In this new suburb where the NBN only provides ‘fixed wireless’ as standard there’s a big new hotel/motel/tavern. It’s spruiking it’s TAB/Keno facilities.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-23/technology-choice-how-much-for-nbn-fibre/9076738

  41. Lateline: The #NBN debate continues on @Lateline. Each side of politics blames the other. @MattWordsworth describes the situation in Canberra. #auspol pic.twitter.com/QMGvs79mMS

  42. guytaur

    “Lateline: The #NBN debate continues on @Lateline. Each side of politics blames the other”
    .
    FMD, they are pumping the they are as bad as each other crap 🙁 Only 1 side borked a proper nbn.

  43. Nbnco might be a case of overdue, overpriced and (fortunately) not over here, it certainly isn’t “cheaper, faster, better”, lemme compare with the HFC or DSL ways .
    Blackberries?
    Really?

  44. poroti @ #1636 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 9:19 pm

    guytaur

    “Lateline: The #NBN debate continues on @Lateline. Each side of politics blames the other”
    .
    FMD, they are pumping the they are as bad as each other crap 🙁 Only 1 side borked a proper nbn.

    If this is the sort of crap Lateline is coming out with these days, I’m glad it’s going.

    4 Corners is the better program to be keeping.

  47. Vic
    The article on the UFU gave Greens MP Adam Bandt a backhander re his behaviour when he was the lawyer for the union, so not sure on boosting the Greens. Keep reading about a number of pre-selections going on at the minute. A few in the backgound making a bit a of mischief i reckon. Why the staffer photo suddenly appeared after 7 years, why the look back after 4 years on the accident involving Andrews’s wife.

  49. From reading a small sample of comments on NBN articles today, it is clear that many people are convinced Fraudband is just a big con at our expense.

  50. taylormade

    As I said, this is standard operating procedure of the Age. They are not pro Labor and with the Northcote by election, happy to run interference for team Labor.

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