BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Mild improvement for the Coalition in the poll aggregate this week after better results from Essential Research and YouGov (though not Newspoll).

The Coalition recovers just a little bit from its low base in this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, which incorporates new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov. The Coalition is up half a point on the primary vote and 0.3% on two-party preferred, although the bigger mover is One Nation, which came in higher from all three pollsters. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. After a leap last week on the back of the monthly Essential Research numbers, Malcolm Turnbull’s is down again on the leadership trend after a very different result from Newspoll. The bigger picture on these measures is how remarkably little change there has been since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  1. taylormade,
    …as well as the 10 million being spent to spruik the level crossing removal program.

    Have you not seen the plethora of federal Coalition government ads on EVERYTHING they have ‘achieved’!?! If you can call them achievements. They would be costing well in excess of that. And we’re only one and a bit years out from an election. So they are doing it to try and get back up in the polls which they are tanking in. At least the Andrews government are in the run-up to an election.

    Anyway, who cares about dead tree media and what they think? Even if they are in the digital space most people don’t come across all the hit pieces as they browse.

  4. Fantasy interview from tonight…

    Mitch Fifield: “The NBN will be fit for purpose.”

    Question-not-asked: “So, what’s the purpose?”

    Fifield: “Too late. You forgot to ask me.”

    Questioner: “But I’m from the ABC!”

    Fifield: “Exactly.”

  7. ConversationEDU: The New Zealand experience shows if you offer people faster internet speeds they will take them up #4corners #NBN theconversation.com/customers-aren…

    https://twitter.com/conversationedu/status/922398884827037696

    If the punter knows he or she will receive a – nudge-nudge, wink-wink – “”up to” speed, then the punter will not bother to ask for a high speed connection, because it’s just a waste of (his or her) money.

  11. I must admit that the best bit of $C was when that guy came up his driveway at the end of the day that nbnCo had told him they would be there. And they weren’t! Again!

  16. Q and A is ridiculous. There is 50/50 split of proponents and opponents of marriage equality and, I suspect, in the audience.

    But all the polls indicate that is not the split. This is another stupid outing for rubbish arguments against marriage equality.

  17. Finally, and most shockingly, was the technician who knew what he was talking about and had made a business out of remediating the nbnCo stuff-ups, showed how the untrained quick-fix workers that the Turnbull government via nbnCo were using to just get it out asap, so that they can boast about how many homes have been passed with the nbn, had done such shoddy work that it was buried shallow in the ground, with the wrong connectors between the copper and the fibre, and so dirt was getting down the tubes and interfering with the fibre!

    What a joke Turnbull’s nbn is.

  22. TPOF @ #1661 Monday, October 23rd, 2017 – 9:49 pm

    Q and A is ridiculous. There is 50/50 split of proponents and opponents of marriage equality and, I suspect, in the audience.

    But all the polls indicate that is not the split. This is another stupid outing for rubbish arguments against marriage equality.

    30/50, 60/40 so what?
    A not unreasonable split.

  23. silentmajority

    So 4 corners should nail the coffin shut?

    It’ll make no difference to the roll out. They’ll just plug on.

    But the more of it they roll out the the more people realise what a huge amount of tax payer funds have been squandered.

  24. Outside of Victoria, its easy to think of The Age as the most left of the Fairfax papers (at least they didn’t say Vote Tony like the SMH did in 2013), and notice that the Daniel Andrews govt is pretty left by Australian state govt standards, so you’d imagine The Age would be pro Labor, yeah? But the truth is there is no pro Labor (specifically) media in Victoria. The overall vibe of The Age is really soft small L liberal with a green tinge. Plus some business journos you might describe as centrist. They tend to go hard on the left’s favourite social issues, and by & large favour many policies that could only conceivably come from a Labor govt these days. And many individual journos would be quite left. But as a group they never give the ALP a break. Ever. The Greens get a lot of free kicks and puff pieces though, and don’t forget how many of the Fairfax people thought Turnbull would be the Sun King. If there is a corporate spirit to The Age, its probably pining for a return of the 70s (small L) Liberal Hamer govt. A nice govt that understood business but who also did some nice things on social reforms & saving trees without all those icky unions & factions.

  25. CTar1

    That’s the LOL of Truffles boasting about faster connection rates. The faster they be connected the faster they find out he is a bull shit artist.

  28. The only true left papers I can think of are The Saturday Paper (and most of Schwartz Media), New Matilda and Independent Aus

  30. Ides of March – below is copied from a comment I did at another blog a while back. Seems relevant.
    ………………….
    I sometimes think of this article from from the pre-Guardian Australia days of 2009.

    “Small ‘L’ Liberal Is Not Left Wing”
    https://newmatilda.com/2009/08/24/small-l-liberal-not-left-wing/

    Mostly true at the time I thought, and still mostly true now
    I would go further, and say that there is even very little pro-ALP media is Australia. There are probably only four op-ed writers in the mainstream national media who are explicitly pro-ALP (I’m thinking of Van Badham, Paul Syvret, Paul Bongiorno, and maybe John Birmingham). A low amount given you’ve have to count at least a quarter of Australia’s population as core Labor supporters. Other left media voices, or voices that partisan right-wingers would think of as left, are either centrists willing to take a swipe at the Coalition, small L Liberals who mainly focus on social issues, intellectuals who lean Green, or various shades of Marxists, pseudo-Marxists and other dissident lefties. All of which in practice tend to be critical of the ALP and often also of the union movement as well. Labor just doesn’t have the equivalent of the UK’s Daily Mirror, someone who speaks to Labor’s core voters on their own terms in a sympathetic way.

    Another article worth reading in this context, this review of david Marr’s Quarterly Essay on Shorten. Good bit about non-Labor left intellectuals simply don’t *get* rusted on Labor people.
    https://theconversation.com/review-faction-man-bill-shortens-path-to-power-47752

  31. poroti – I was just alluding to a homeland affliction that can make some vowels a bit dodgy.

    Nothing to do with ‘class’ or ‘arse’!

  33. Ides of March
    .
    ” How typical from you scummy working class types ”
    .
    More yeomen but ah we had dreams. My granny added “esq’ after my name when she wrote letters to me 😀

  36. LL

    Interesting. I think of them Van Badham is clear on who she supports while the others are a bit more restrained. I would say I could pick a couple more journalists in what side they lean but not their individual politics. I think the Guardian is interesting in that what we see is mostly the Aus site but we get bleed in from the UK/USA and people that are on different side depending on their home countries.

  46. “Agreed. Plus some spectacular own goals from the no side”

    I think the woman on the no side is now going in for serious foot in mouth surgery.

  50. poroti – Totally not to do with polling / politics … but I’m chuffed to put it mildly.

    Managed to replace Ms Germany’s 18 x 9.5’s with 4 Pirelli P7 Corsa tyres for $1,050!

    Pure luck – someone ordered the tyres, paid a deposit and didn’t collect. The tyre dealer keen to get rid of them because of the unusual size and weight loading required (Ms G’s self levelling suspension really works the side walls so it’s no good buying crap for her). They’re a popular size for things like WRX’s in normal load rating but the stiff side walls make them hard as rocks on a lighter car.

    I went to have a look at them before committing thinking they’d have been sitting on a rack for 2 or 3 yrs – nope 4 mths old!

    A bargain to put it mildly. I was expecting to have to retire the Mastercard for about a year!

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