Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition retains its relatively encouraging voting intention result from Essential Research, as mixed signals emerged about its new energy policy.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has retained its two-point gain from last week on the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 52-48 – primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also records 75% of respondents having voted in the same-sex marriage survey, with 60% having voted yes (down four from three weeks ago) and 34% no (up four).

Other questions related to energy policy, with 35% expressing approval for the government’s new national energy guarantee, 18% disapproval, and 47% unable to day. Only 16% thought it would reduce power prices, compared with 31% who said it would increase them, and 31% who felt it would make no difference. Thirty-two per cent expressed support for the end to renewable energy subsidies in 2020, with 41% opposed; 35% supported the replacement of the clean energy target with new reliability and emissions reductions obligations on retailers, with 32% opposed. Labor was “more trusted to reduce carbon emissions, invest in renewables, stand up to the power companies and develop a modern power grid”, but there was little in it on “reducing power prices or ensuring a reliable power supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,288 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. briefly @ #2233 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 4:04 pm

    Rats….Labor may not be able to form a Government, but at least the GG should ask.

    Not unless there was a serious question of a majority. Even with Barnyard gone the Coalition has 75 votes out of 149. At worst Smith resigns the chair and an independent takes the chair or we go to a new election because the house can’t elect one.

  5. Oh yeah, the lost security manual fuck up to distract from the NBN fuck up to distract from the NEG fuck up.

    Trumble really has had a productive week.

  7. Question

    Is anyone else having trouble with “load rest of comments” or do I have to go off and clear my cache etc? I’m trying to catch up and see BK’s morning digest.

    Me too. The little gif rotates for ages, nothing happens.

    Then it disappears.

    Sometimes if then click on the screen, the rest of comments magically appear.

    It is all very odd.

    Plus, and I don’t know if this is a computer or PB issue, but my typing is very slow to appear in the reply window.

  11. jenauthor @ #2234 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 4:06 pm

    I had to go out – what did Shorten say?

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has some things to say.

    “It’s not about the integrity of the AFP, it’s about the lack of integrity of this government,” Mr Shorten says.

    “Australia has a grubby government and an increasingly grubby Prime Minister.”

    “They’re born to rule but unfit to govern.”

    Also finished off with saying how when Trumble knocked over Abbott he thought his job would get harder, but like the rest of Australia he hoped their might be a chance to restore some faith in politics. But everything Trumble has done since has been to dash those hopes. The Australian people were now awake to Trumble. And awake to what he does when he’s in trouble – he plays the man. Just ask Rudd, Nelson and Abbott.

    The only thing he cares about is his job.

    Basically smashed him because he didn’t have to raise his voice or puff himself up. Just layed it out there more in sorrow than anger. Smashed him because it’s all true and everyone is waking up to it.

  15. Bemused

    Forgive me, I do not know how to reference a particular post (instead of reposting).

    Would you be so kind as to give me a heads up please.

    Regarding AR’s C+ — This is available for both Firefox and Chrome desktop Windows and Apple and, I suppose, laptops both Windows and Apple.
    And lately C+ also available for Android – works well for my Android tablet and Samsung Android phone.
    My question here does the Iphone support C+ with Chrome/firefox. If so just about any platform is supported by C+. Therefor quite easy to jump to pages back in time to find BK roundup.

    I was just playing my version of “Red River Valley” when the most tremendous racket broke out.
    Hail storm with a little thunder and lightning and rain. I just knew it was not applause.

  22. KayJay @ #2248 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 4:22 pm

    Bemused

    Forgive me, I do not know how to reference a particular post (instead of reposting).

    Would you be so kind as to give me a heads up please.

    Regarding AR’s C+ — This is available for both Firefox and Chrome desktop Windows and Apple and, I suppose, laptops both Windows and Apple.
    And lately C+ also available for Android – works well for my Android tablet and Samsung Android phone.
    My question here does the Iphone support C+ with Chrome/firefox. If so just about any platform is supported by C+. Therefor quite easy to jump to pages back in time to find BK roundup.

    I was just playing my version of “Red River Valley” when the most tremendous racket broke out.
    Hail storm with a little thunder and lightning and rain. I just knew it was not applause.

    Don’t think so KayJay, from what I remember. Great if it was available on the ipad.

  23. So when is Malcolm leaving for Israel? If he is out of the country and the HC kicks out the 7 amigos, it would be the perfect time for the ALP to use any dry powder they may have….

    Tom.

  28. Fair dinkum Richard Glover is either a closet liberal or the most stupid radio host on the abc.
    Cash is innocent of misleading the senate.

  29. “Well, I just want to advise the Government on this fact: Australians have worked this Prime Minister out.”

    From Shortens speech as he quietly goes for Malcolm’s throat.

    Looking forward to Friday.

  30. Grimace, he may be paired, but being out of the country (and if we assume Barnaby is goorrn) then that likely leaves JBishop as acting PM and she is incapable at the best of times. The focus of my post is not on the majority held.

    Tom.

  31. Problem for Truffles with Newspoll is that he needs a BIG, or consistent shift back to the LNP. He’s just not getting it and there are really no realistic prospects or reasons out there for him to get it. Pretty bleak outlook for him and his party really. They are flailing around looking like dicks and really, people seem to have made up their minds already.

    Similar situation to Gillard, but she actually managed to do the policy thing and implement legislation while it was happening.

  32. KayJay, if you are around:

    You asked about creeping Oxalis in your lawn.

    Grazon is recommended for this task. It only kills broad leafed weeds, not grasses, hence the name.

    There is a generic, cheaper version available in some stores.

  33. Unfortunately, I think that the people who might help shift 2PP to 55-45 or better either
    1. Don’t follow news (printed/TV/online)
    2. Don’t care about any omnishambles
    3. Take notice of only the right-wing journos in DT, Hub, or Courier-Mail

  35. Grimace

    Seems to me that Labor could make a case about unusual circumstances etc and not offer a pair.

    However since Baaaanaby will not go until late Friday, Parliament is not due to sit, so not chance of a no confidence vote

  37. phylactella
    Unfortunately, I think that the people who might help shift 2PP to 55-45 or better either
    1. Don’t follow news (printed/TV/online)
    2. Don’t care about any omnishambles
    3. Take notice of only the right-wing journos in DT, Hub, or Courier-Mail

    Most voters are mostly disengaged from politics most of the time. The default position
    of the overwhelming majority of voters is that politics is mainly theatre – repetitious, tedious, trivial and demeaning theatre. They pay no attention to it.

    The current anti-incumbent lean in the polls reflects very sustained pressure on individual and household budgets and the disintegration of the Right-Positive plurality rather than any of the day to day match-play. It also signifies the decadent state of the Liberal brand.

  38. prediction: Cash will survive because the high court decision will distract the media, just as the AFP raids distracted the media from the NBN scandal.

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