Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition retains its relatively encouraging voting intention result from Essential Research, as mixed signals emerged about its new energy policy.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has retained its two-point gain from last week on the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 52-48 – primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also records 75% of respondents having voted in the same-sex marriage survey, with 60% having voted yes (down four from three weeks ago) and 34% no (up four).

Other questions related to energy policy, with 35% expressing approval for the government’s new national energy guarantee, 18% disapproval, and 47% unable to day. Only 16% thought it would reduce power prices, compared with 31% who said it would increase them, and 31% who felt it would make no difference. Thirty-two per cent expressed support for the end to renewable energy subsidies in 2020, with 41% opposed; 35% supported the replacement of the clean energy target with new reliability and emissions reductions obligations on retailers, with 32% opposed. Labor was “more trusted to reduce carbon emissions, invest in renewables, stand up to the power companies and develop a modern power grid”, but there was little in it on “reducing power prices or ensuring a reliable power supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,288 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Forgive me for thinking that the whole thing, including instructing ROC, and getting pictures of the police raid, were all orchestrated from Cash’s office.

    Think of how many organisations have made donations in the past 10 years. I don’t see how the ROC can go after the paperwork for donations made 10 years ago, which were signed off by the opposition leader, and still have the Gall to claim independence. It beggars belief. The whole thing is a blatant abuse of power.

  2. “I understand why the Labor Party want to focus on the wrongful conduct of our… of a ministerial staffer”

    Nearly tripped up pretty badly there, perhaps the cross examination is more effective than he is letting on

  3. JustBlameLabor ‏ @MinhKular · 2m2 minutes ago

    The Speaker does his daily muscle flex and tosses another Labor member out just for something different #qt #auspol

  4. sf — I’m going a little off piste, I know —

    My grandfather was a Minister in Nojee during the 1928 fires.

    He was heading back from one of the outlying churches (the whole congregation, admittedly a very small one, had died in the fires a few hours later) and diverted from the track to seek shelter at a homestead.

    The residents had only just moved into the house, having lived in a hollowed out mountain ash for years prior.

    Despite valiant efforts, aided by my grandfather, their house burnt down.

    They moved back into the mountain ash soon afterwards.

  5. bemused @ #2180 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 2:30 pm

    Question @ #2135 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 1:40 pm

    Thank you KayJay. Extra cream for you.

    I suppose I should be bothered to install AR’s stuff. Anybody have a link to the instructions? So many things to keep track of these days on computers and devices. Setting up my computer from scratch would take days.

    On Firefox it is called PB Comments Plugin and just add like any other plugin.

    Thanks Bemused… yes it was pretty easy to install on Chrome. Didn’t need to put my password in again, or even restart chrome.

  6. This why I enjoy Amy Remeikis.

    It’s a dixer for Peter Dutton. He has not finished speaking, but I can take a guess that the answer is basically – you are very safe, the Coalition respects the police, unions have thugs and Labor does not support the working class.

  7. Amy R

    Sidenote from me: given that the government is clearly moving to back Michaelia Cash, with the prime minister using question time to defend her, her actions and her integrity, it seems a little strange that the government would seek to gag this debate. It doesn’t look good. The smarter move would have been to allow the debate, and continue to defend your minister. But maybe there is a reason I am not a politician (and never will be)

  8. Is it possible to find out where Tony Abbott is for the first few minutes of QT? I mean, is he just loitering near the door? Within running distance should the division bells ring?

  9. Just trying to get to the adjournment debate.

    Basically this is the story of Trumble. Just get through til tomorrow. It doesn’t matter how crap everything turns to, who gets hurt, what gets trashed, or even just how much accumulated damage he and the government wear. Just make it til tomorrow and hope something, anything turns up.

  10. FalconWA @ #2189 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 2:40 pm

    Is this Ground Hog Day? Every question from government members is exactly the same as every question from every QT this week

    This government has Groundhog Weeks. Each Monday they jump out of bed all bright and chipper with a brand new plan, and by Friday they are sitting at the bottom of a crater and covered in crap.

    No matter how often this happens, for the first half of the week the pundits forget the previous weeks although it was good to see Tingle stopped making excuses this time, and even Uhlmann hasn’t been too bad.

  11. The CPG sense blood:

    Michaelia Cash refuses to say if she and PM discussed her resignation
    Employment Minister Michaelia Cash has refused to say whether she discussed resigning when she met with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to discuss the media leak controversy that has engulfed her office.

    Senator Cash met with Mr Turnbull on Thursday morning, before fronting a Senate committee hearing where she was grilled about what she and her staff members knew and leaked about police raids on the Australian Workers’ Union.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/michaelia-cash-refuses-to-say-if-she-and-pm-discussed-her-resignation-20171026-gz8kyo.html

  12. Oi vey! Kelly O’Bigmouth trying to launch another smear about Bill Shorten!

    If one falls flat on it’s face. This grubby crew have always got another.

    Crook as!

  13. Senator Cash met with Mr Turnbull on Thursday morning, before fronting a Senate committee hearing where she was grilled about what she and her staff members knew and leaked about police raids on the Australian Workers’ Union.

    Where Brian Trumble advised her to use the Seenodonors defence.
    ‘Buggered if I can remember!’

  14. Malcolm Turnbull put a new test in that question time for ministerial responsibility:

    A minister is accountable for what she says and her obligation is to speak the truth. She was misled, as she said. She was misled, as she said. And once her staff told her the truth and made the admission that he had done the wrong thing, she corrected the record. She acted entirely properly.”

    Labor came prepared. Here are some of the examples Bill Shorten’s office had prepared on Turnbull’s previous positions on ministerial responsibility:

    Utegate

    “But the fact of the matter remains that the seriousness of the Treasurer’s conduct cannot be overstated, because it is not simply a matter of misleading the House—that in itself is bad enough and justification for him to resign.

    Speech – 22 June 2009

    “…was when I criticised the Prime Minister and said that, unless he could justify his actions and reconcile the contradiction between the evidence of the Treasury official and his own statements, he should resign.

    “The opposition’s calls for the Treasurer to resign rely on the solid, incontrovertible evidence drawn from those emails presented by Treasury. All of that evidence is authentic and beyond dispute.

    Speech – 24 June 2009

    “Wayne Swan has misled the Parliament about the way in which he’s dealt with John Grant, this crony and benefactor of the Prime Minister, and he must resign.

    Look, the only person whose tenure in the Parliament is in issue today is Wayne Swan. He’s the one that has misled the Parliament. That is an offence that should result in the dismissal or resignation of a Minister. It is perfectly clear.

    Doorstop – 23 June 2009

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/oct/26/coalition-defends-michaelia-cash-after-admission-over-awu-raids-leak-politics-live?page=with:block-59f15f11fe8924077e0220c8#block-59f15f11fe8924077e0220c8

    and here it comes. The next phase is to remind everyone about Utegate and Trumble’s terrible judgement. Trying to hold onto Cash just gives Labor the opportunity to bring up Utegate again and again and again.

  15. Labor came prepared. Here are some of the examples Bill Shorten’s office had prepared on Turnbull’s previous positions on ministerial responsibility:

    And while Labor pointed it out to Brian, he sat there with a shit-eating grin on his face! As in, yeah, and?

  16. Interesting numbers from GetUp:

    GetUp by the numbers
    Here’s a real-time snapshot of what GetUp members are up to:
    Last Day Last 7 days Last 30 days Last 365 days
    Donations 4617 21916 54954 530689
    Donations Total $171458 $725870 $1220819 $9326470
    Average Donations $37 $33 $22 $17
    Actions Taken 4943 39807 100890 1630997
    New Members 465 2707 7033 128224
    Donors 3275 15066 21907 49058
    First-time Donors 1145 3485 4593 25160

  17. Ok 2,210 comments. Cannot load rest of comments. Guess I’m hitting some memory limit on my phone. I thought I saw comments earlier that may have been discussing something along those lines.
    Any suggestions. I cleared all app caches the other day.

  18. grimace @ #2217 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 2:45 pm

    markjs @ #2216 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 12:43 pm

    My prediction..

    Truffles will sack Cash whilst he’s out of the country.. he’s a coward.

    A small part of me thinks that if Barnyard gets punted then Trumble will call a House only election.

    It’s the only reset button he has left. It will probably work as well as all the others have.

    Turnbull thinks that he can win by making bold seeping moves but he never thinks down to the next level because he isn’t really very smart.

  19. grimace
    markjs @ #2216 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 12:43 pm

    My prediction..

    Truffles will sack Cash whilst he’s out of the country.. he’s a coward.

    A small part of me thinks that if Barnyard gets punted then Trumble will call a House only election.

    The GG might well decline and instead ask Labor to first try to form a Government.

  20. ajm – totally right. If you think about Malcolm as a salesman who only cares about getting your dough and doesn’t give a s… what happens afterwards, you’re right on the money.

  21. briefly @ #2225 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 3:56 pm

    grimace
    markjs @ #2216 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 12:43 pm

    My prediction..

    Truffles will sack Cash whilst he’s out of the country.. he’s a coward.

    A small part of me thinks that if Barnyard gets punted then Trumble will call a House only election.

    The GG might well decline and instead ask Labor to first try to form a Government.

    Not likely with the Member for Indi at least standing by her man.

  22. AJM

    Yep. Its the fascist tendencies and the neo liberal look after our mates not the people ethos at the heart fo the LNP thats at fault.

    Its why I have said that I think we are seeing the spplit of the right as a conswquence of the GFC just like we saw the split on the left due to the fall ow the USSR.

    Both extremes shown to have failed.

    The left has had its ructions. Now its the turn of the ritght and I fully expect Labor to be the natural party of government as a result.

    Especially if they get in a voting system that lets other parties in like Canberra EU and Canberra

  23. cud chewer
    Why a hose only election and not a half Senate too?

    There cannot be a half-Senate election until August (I think) next year.

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