Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition retains its relatively encouraging voting intention result from Essential Research, as mixed signals emerged about its new energy policy.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has retained its two-point gain from last week on the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 52-48 – primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also records 75% of respondents having voted in the same-sex marriage survey, with 60% having voted yes (down four from three weeks ago) and 34% no (up four).

Other questions related to energy policy, with 35% expressing approval for the government’s new national energy guarantee, 18% disapproval, and 47% unable to day. Only 16% thought it would reduce power prices, compared with 31% who said it would increase them, and 31% who felt it would make no difference. Thirty-two per cent expressed support for the end to renewable energy subsidies in 2020, with 41% opposed; 35% supported the replacement of the clean energy target with new reliability and emissions reductions obligations on retailers, with 32% opposed. Labor was “more trusted to reduce carbon emissions, invest in renewables, stand up to the power companies and develop a modern power grid”, but there was little in it on “reducing power prices or ensuring a reliable power supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,288 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 46
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  1. Good Morning Bludgers : )

    So basically people are taking a meta view as far as government and Energy policy goes. That is, the government sets the tone and determines the direction-more Renewables or less, more Coal or gas, and provide a framework that the Energy companies function within.

    Then it seems as though they believe that Energy companies will do what they have always done and gauge the consumer for a profit.

    It seems obvious that no one believes that Energy companies will ever willingly lower their prices to what would be commensurate with the abundance of Energy sources we have in this country.

    So, situation normal, and if you can get Solar panels and a battery, you will.

    What an indictment of a government that is quite happy with that scenario.

  2. Good Morning

    GeorgeHWBush: Not sure abt 39, @BillClinton, 43 and @BarackObama, but I would have sung w @ladygaga if asked. Thanks to all for supporting @AmericaAppeal.

  3. The White House Announces That Trump Won’t Apologize To The Family Of La David Johnson

    The White House is going to allow Trump to call a grieving Army widow a liar, and do nothing to try to make the situation right. This is such an easy fix. If Trump wasn’t a heartless sociopath, he could apologize for his poor choice of words, but this White House doesn’t apologize. They specialize in taking bad situations and making them worse by doubling and tripling down on their lies and previous comments.

    The wife and family of La David Johnson deserve an apology.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/23/white-house-announces-trump-apologize-family-la-david-johnson.html

  4. Trump Walks Away From Reporters As They Ask About The Niger Ambush That Is His Benghazi

    Reporters asked Trump about the Niger ambush, and if he had a response to La David Johnson’s widow Myeshia’s statement that his phone call made her cry more, but the usually talkative president had nothing to say and walked away from reporters.

    Reporters asked Trump, “Can you tell the public what happened in Niger?, and Do you have a response to Myeshia Johnson, Mr. President?”

    The response from Trump was to ignore the questions and walk away.

    A real president would not ignore a question about an ambush that got four members of the US military killed. A real president would not ignore the feelings of grieving widow who he insulted and cry even more. A true leader would embrace accountability and answer questions from the press.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/23/trump-walks-reporters-niger-ambush-benghazi.html

  5. Lawmakers in America are having the devil’s time trying to pin Trump down:

    The great dealmaker? Lawmakers find Trump to be an untrustworthy negotiator.

    President Trump campaigned as one of the world’s greatest dealmakers, but after nine months of struggling to broker agreements, lawmakers in both parties increasingly consider him an untrustworthy, chronically inconsistent and easily distracted negotiator .

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-great-dealmaker-lawmakers-find-trump-to-be-an-untrustworthy-negotiator/2017/10/22/7709aea8-b5d4-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?pushid=59ee1b902e6a733200000052&tid=notifi_push_breaking-news&utm_term=.8b893196f11c

  6. Retired US Army colonel explains why John Kelly’s views of civilian life are dangerous for democracy

    Ret. U.S. Army Col. Bob Killebrew wrote a guest column for Foreign Policy this week in which he took Trump chief of staff John Kelly to task for his seemingly contemptuous views of American civilians.

    “The larger point that strikes me, as a retired infantryman, is the self-pity in the general’s tone,” Killebrew writes. “Look at us; we’ve made sacrifices that you don’t appreciate. The only good American is one in uniform, or, ultimately, the ones under tombstones in Arlington.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/retired-us-army-colonel-explains-why-john-kellys-views-of-civilian-life-are-dangerous-for-democracy/

  7. It appears our glorious PM has added another question to the list home buyers ask or check ( “is it connected to gas?”, “how close to public transport?”, etc).
    “Is it connected to the NBN? If so, is it FttP?” is becoming increasingly important.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2017/10/23/nbn-real-estate-property-value/
    And as reported in last night’s 4C.

    PMs TA and MT have earned their place in history as the wreckers. They destroyed the car industry (along with the jobs and lives of many workers) and the NBN.
    Well done!

  8. The ABC is emasculated. They have IPA drone Georgina Downer on talking down renewables and so far totally ignoring the NBN despite it being an ABC story.

  9. C@t, re energy policy and going solar, we take our lead from that Point Piper resident who has famously set his mansion up with PV and batteries so he can go totally off-grid.
    So much for confidence in our electricity supply.

  10. markjs

    This really annoyed me at the time. The ABC has (had) a reputation for objective news reporting so that deception like this was far worse than in a Murdoch paper.

  11. Lizzie,
    I believe the ABC news and 7:30 have lost market share, but I have not seen recent figures.
    Our household can’t stand watching it – we’ve switched to SBS.

  12. Maud Lynne,
    But our entitled leader (well, at least HE thinks he is entitled to the job of Prime Minister), has a ‘mini police station in his front yard’ to power with all those solar panels, doncha know!?!
    🙂

  13. Even ‘The Project’ gets more out of an interview with our political leaders than the ABC does these days.

    The ABC News and Current Affairs programs are a sad shadow of their former selves.

  14. C@t, it’s not just TV.
    I no longer listen to ABC local radio nor RN when driving to work because it makes me so angry it affects my concentration.
    I now listen to ABC FM, and turn down the news.

  15. guytaur

    When a link “goes into moderation” copy it, then delete it and refresh the blog. Then you can paste the link back.
    It’s not “moderation”, it’s a problem.

  16. I thought the 4C report was rather weak and uninformative, yet the Coal went into panic-defence mode.

    AshGhebranious‏ @AshGhebranious · 35s35 seconds ago

    The ALP did not spend 6 bn connecting 50,000 homes. They laid connections to exchanges to prepare the delivery to the homes #auspol

  17. Thanks C@t for link to Stilgherriann’ s tweets.
    Two points hit me
    “Morrow just made the key point, though: They’re building the network that the government asked them to build.”
    And
    Fifield said “it’s fit for purpose”. ( whatever that is- he didn’t elaborate and ‘our ABC’ reporter doesn’t ask obvious questions which may cause Gov’t embarrassment).

    Neither even tried to argue it’s any good. And they are the ones in charge!

  18. lizzie @ #29 Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 – 7:16 am

    I thought the 4C report was rather weak and uninformative, yet the Coal went into panic-defence mode.

    AshGhebranious‏ @AshGhebranious · 35s35 seconds ago

    The ALP did not spend 6 bn connecting 50,000 homes. They laid connections to exchanges to prepare the delivery to the homes #auspol

    And do you think there’s a responsible journalists out there that will pick them up on it!?!

    *crickets*

  19. Maude Lynne,
    The point should also have been made that it is the NBN that Rupert Murdoch demanded be built so that his crock, Foxtel, could maintain market share. As my son observed last night, well Netflix blew that plan out of the water!

    Still, this crook crock of a Coalition government went along with their Master’s request. With taxpayers’ $!!!

  20. A very nice point made here.

    Turnbull invested more than $600,000 of his own money to become member for Wentworth with a reduced Liberal majority. This was a foretaste of the 2016 federal election campaign, which saw the Prime Minister reportedly donate more than $1.75 million as he sought re-election.

    So we have a pattern whereby much money is spent to produce mediocre results. Something is wrong here.

    Success outside politics propelled Malcolm Turnbull into The Lodge even though he lacks basic qualities needed to sustain success as a prime minister. He is very rich precisely because he is no good at politics. There is, as a result, a fearful asymmetry at the heart of Australian government.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/happy-birthday-malcolm-turnbull-i-wish-you-a-speedy-retirement-20171023-gz69xy.html

  21. Lizzie, good point.
    The reporting about the ALP’s NBN expenditure by the Murdoch press was just deception and lies.
    Murdoch Press is really an ‘associated entity’ of the LNP. The AEC should be investigating them, not GetUp.

  22. R_Chirgwin: @YaThinkN I skipped watching and read the transcript. A disappointment: no diagnosis of the “how”, and … /1
    R_Chirgwin: @YaThinkN /2 … the media’s role barracking, turning the NBN into a Conroy/Turnbull personality match, completely unexamined.

  23. Maude Lynne @ #22 Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 – 7:06 am

    C@t, it’s not just TV.
    I no longer listen to ABC local radio nor RN when driving to work because it makes me so angry it affects my concentration.
    I now listen to ABC FM, and turn down the news.

    Agree entirely. I need to get out of the habit of listening to the dross that is AM while walking to work.

    Incidentally, if you’re interested in TV ratings, this is your site:
    tvtonight.com.au/category/ratings

  24. C@t, yes, it is a point well made.
    we tried to export him to the US in the ’80s but the bastard keeps coming back to haunt us.
    Have I mentioned how much I dislike him?

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Morrisons’s still banging the trickle-down economics can.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-scott-morrison-says-company-tax-cuts-urgent-as-he-prepares-to-unveil-a-new-wave-of-reform-20171023-gz6n9e.html
    Ouch! David Crowe writes that the federal government is ¬exposed to a brutal revision of its $49 billion outlay on the Nat¬ional Broadband Network as the project’s commercial return sinks to dangerous lows amid a political storm over slow speeds for millions of customers. Google.
    /national-affairs/treasury/nbn-revenue-shortfall-leaves-budget-exposed/news-story/8b7019b34ecf33c29b96fd2326b785ff
    Michael Pascoe on the myth of the minimum wage in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australias-minimum-wage-myth-20171022-gz61ci.html
    Stephen Holt writes that it’s our Prime Minister’s birthday today. In a spirit of charity, we should wish him many happy returns. We must acknowledge, though, that, at the moment, he’s not in a sweet spot politically. He never will be. Holt also wishes Turnbull a speedy retirement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/happy-birthday-malcolm-turnbull-i-wish-you-a-speedy-retirement-20171023-gz69xy.html
    And John Passant asks “After 21 disastrous polls in a row, it is only a matter of time till Malcolm Turnbull is replaced as leader. The question is, who will replace him?”
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/after-21-disastrous-polls-when-will-turnbull-be-replaced-and-by-whom,10847
    Trump and condolence – not a convincing association.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/it-made-me-cry-gold-star-widow-myeshia-johnson-breaks-silence-over-donald-trumps-condolence-call-20171023-gz6q7c.html
    Magda Szubanski slammed the Anglican Archbishop of Sydney last night over the religious influences she believes churches wield on the “civil domain” when it comes to the idea of marriage.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/10/23/magda-szubanski-fires-up-over-religions-possessive-hold-on-marriage_a_23252451/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    The same-sex marriage debate has intensified into a row over in-vitro fertilisation and sperm donors after a ‘No’ campaigner claimed parenting was not the same as birthing children. That Karina Okotel is a real bit of work.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/tv/2017/10/23/same-sex-marriage-postal-survey-ivf-qanda/
    An ABC memo asking staff to remain impartial on same-sex marriage sparked protest and disagreement within the broadcaster earlier this year, as revealed by emails obtained exclusively by The New Daily.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/10/23/abc-emails-ructions-gay-marriage/

  26. Section 2 . . .

    Real estate agents say the NBN has become a “selling point” in NBN-activated areas, with some buyers even requesting specific details around the technology type.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2017/10/23/nbn-real-estate-property-value/
    Trump’s tax plan is a cure in search of a disease!
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/david-cay-johnston-trumps-tax-plan-cure-search-disease/
    A crackdown on polluting industries in northern China for an unprecedented five months over winter is not a one-off and could hit Australian iron ore and coal exports.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/china-pollution-crackdown-here-to-stay-20171023-gz6pa1.html
    Peter Hartcher celebrates the crushing of the Daesh caliphate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-one-bright-spot-amid-the-worlds-problems-20171023-gz67gh.html
    Far from bringing the issue to a close, the recent decision of the Federal Court to uphold what amounts to a wages cut for Australia’s lowest-paid workers has set the scene for a bitter battle over penalty rates. Could it be Turnbull’s undoing?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/work/2017/10/22/new-class-working-poor/
    John McDuling writes that every few months, people realise the biggest infrastructure project in Australia’s history is a complete debacle. And then, like clockwork, the buck passing and blame shifting for this reality begins.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/it-looks-as-if-an-nbn-writedown-is-now-seriously-in-play-20171023-gz66al.html
    And Kevin Rudd had his say on how Turnbull has wrecked it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/protecting-nbn-from-the-private-sector-disastrous-competition-watchdog-20171023-gz6hbb.html
    This physician says that the recent successful vote for the Voluntary Assisted Dying Bill in the Victorian lower house is a huge step forward for human rights in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/assisted-dying-vote-is-a-huge-step-forward-for-victoria-20171023-gz6aer.html
    Is there scope for adapting Jimmy Carter’s model by using an Australian eminence grise – someone close to the US but usefully separate? Two names spring to mind: former prime minister, Paul Keating and former foreign minister, Gareth Evans.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/jimmy-carter-lusts-for-trump-posting-says-he-can-help-dialogue-with-north-korea-20171022-gz62dq.html
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/could-paul-keating-and-gareth-evans-be-australias-north-korea-solution-20171023-gz6b5h.html

  27. C@tmomma @ #1 Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 – 6:22 am

    Good Morning Bludgers : )

    So basically people are taking a meta view as far as government and Energy policy goes. That is, the government sets the tone and determines the direction-more Renewables or less, more Coal or gas, and provide a framework that the Energy companies function within.

    Then it seems as though they believe that Energy companies will do what they have always done and gauge the consumer for a profit.

    It seems obvious that no one believes that Energy companies will ever willingly lower their prices to what would be commensurate with the abundance of Energy sources we have in this country.

    So, situation normal, and if you can get Solar panels and a battery, you will.

    What an indictment of a government that is quite happy with that scenario.

    C@t, they don’t govern. Perish the thought. They facilitate

  28. Section 3 . . .

    Elizabeth Knight tells us that Solomon Lew is set to go nuclear at the Myer AGM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/solomon-lew-set-to-go-nuclear-on-myer-20171023-gz6cuq.html
    Jenna Price on her experiences of sexual and other harassment on the workplace and how hard it is to do something about it. It’s quite a call to arms.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/women-must-use-metoo-momentum-to-change-their-workplaces-20171022-gz626b.html
    Lucy Turnbull tells us about the draft Greater Sydney Region Plan 2056.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/my-plan-for-sydney-in-2056-wont-sit-on-a-shelf-gathering-dust-20171023-gz6bop.html
    Corporate regulator Greg Medcraft can feel satisfied about the impending settlement of the BBSW market manipulation case against ANZ Banking Group because it involves admissions of wrong doing. Google.
    /brand/chanticleer/asics-greg-medcraft-can-feel-satisfaction-with-bbsw-outcome-20171023-gz6kip
    Tony Wright has some fun at the government’s expense.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/sketch-nbn-a-mistake-malcolm-turnbull-gets-no-help-from-his-team-20171023-gz6dq1.html
    Peter Martin reports that new census figures show Sydney is running a “population deficit” with the rest of the country. The figures for population movement released on Monday show that although Sydney benefited from an enormous inflow of migrants (399,620) in five years leading up to the census, it lost population to every region of the country.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/census-2016-locals-are-moving-out-as-new-arrivals-target-sydney-20171023-gz6n1r.html
    Officials at Parliament House concede they have no idea who has possession of a 1000-page security manual lost in November last year, despite calling in private investigators. Labor put the boot in at Estimates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/private-investigator-called-in-over-lost-1000page-parliament-house-security-manual-20171023-gz65ez.html
    More from Estimates as serial idiot Malcolm Roberts has accused the Bureau of Meteorology of tinkering with weather data, but failed to produce any evidence when challenged by a senior government minister.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/weather-data-tinkered-one-nation-senator-20171023-p4ywln.html
    And Michael Pezzullo spent time at Estimates defending his new behemoth of a department.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/no-sinister-behemoth-michael-pezzullo-defends-home-affairs-department-20171022-gz649n.html

  29. Section 3 . . .

    The public service commissioner has defended his links to right-wing think tank the Institute of Public Affairs, rejecting suggestions he gave it special access and research. John Lloyd faced a barrage of questioning about his connection with the IPA from senators ysterday.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/apsc-boss-john-lloyd-defends-link-to-rightwing-think-tank-ipa-at-senate-20171023-gz69na.html
    David Heatherington says that privatisation has failed and that we need a moratorium on all new proposals.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/23/privatisation-has-failed-we-need-a-moratorium-on-all-new-proposals
    In a long article Noely Neate discusses the complex motivations behind the latest rumours which surround embattled Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/who-is-waging-the-dirty-war-on-barnaby,10851
    Some people just never learn.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clearly-unacceptable-bill-shorten-aide-quits-amid-blackface-costume-scandal-20171023-gz6f3o.html
    I wonder how Turnbull will go with Netanyahu on this extradition request.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/pm-to-push-israel-for-extradition-of-exprincipal-accused-of-abusing-girls-20171022-gz62n9.html
    Children raised in same-sex families develop as their peers in families with heterosexual parents do, a group of senior paediatricians and adolescent health experts says.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/discrimination-not-samesex-parents-harms-children-report-20171022-gz5w2y.html
    John McCain takes a good swipe at Trump over his draft-dodging.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/23/john-mccain-donald-trump-vietnam-bone-spurs-medical-deferment
    Adelaide has become Australia’s drive-to-work capital as an overwhelming majority of workers shun public transport, contributing to traffic gridlock. Census figures released on Monday reveal that 80 per cent of Adelaide workers drove to their place of employment in 2016 — the highest rate of all the Australian capital cities. Google.
    /news/south-australia/majority-of-adelaide-commuters-drive-to-work-which-helps-to-create-traffic-gridlock/news-story/58f12a946324351e897ed8155cbdb626
    Katharine Murphy on the latest SSM survey polling.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/24/sixty-per-cent-of-postal-survey-voters-have-said-yes-to-marriage-equality-guardian-essential-poll

  30. The ALP did not spend 6 bn connecting 50,000 homes. They laid connections to exchanges to prepare the delivery to the homes

    That “Labor” spent billions connecting a handful of homes is a straight out lie which anyone with any technical knowledge would pick up. Most of the early spending would have been on on planning, analysis and design, followed by setting up some basic infrastructure, trial sites and so forth. Like building a freeway, you don’t send people out on day 1 to dig trenches and lay concrete. You work out the details first.

    Rollout to homes and businesses had barely started under Labor’s plan. Had Labor’s plan gone ahead, most of the $6 billion (assuming that number isn’t also a lie) would have been shared across the whole project. As it was, the Coalition when it gained office threw much of that away and started again, a colossal waste.

  31. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner – a big one!

    Cathy Wilcox and the evolution of NBN spin.

    David Rowe and the NBN blame game.

    David Pope goes right off on Turnbull’s blame game and the digital divide.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    John Shakespeare and a rather shaky Turnbull.

    Matt Golding and security at Parliament House.

    Mark David has dredged up some good news for Turnbull from all the complaints about the NBN.

    And he gives Turnbull a well deserved serve over his copper network.

    Glen Le Lievre goes even further with the magic of copper.


    An old one but a good one from Cathy Wilcox.

    Matt Golding on assisted dying.

    Golding and Turnbull’s blame game.

    And Golding appropriately rebadges the NBN.

    He’s gone troppo on the NBN today!


    Mark Knight on Keating’s entry into the voluntary euthanasia debate.

    And he gives us a Harvey Weinstein production.

    Alan Moir with some words of encouragement for Morrison.

    Pat Clement on the scary rollout of the NBN.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/03e647b90a8b8faab7d4bed8e69f03b5

  32. Customers who connect to the internet via a fixed-line connection that is a competitor to the NBN network will soon have to pay a levy of $7.09 a month to help subsidise the NBN, which is required to offer connections to hard-to-reach customers.

    Could someone explain what this means please?

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