Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor; YouGov: 51-49 to Coalition

The gap narrows in the latest Essential Research poll, which also finds strong support for a clean energy target.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average records an unusually solid two-point move in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Nothing in The Guardian’s report on primary votes, so those will have to wait until later in the day. What we do have in the report is that 65% support a clean energy target, 74% back support for renewable energy and “a majority” support Labor’s goal of 50% renewable energy by 2030. Sixty-one per cent say the government is not doing enough “to ensure affordable, reliable and clean energy” (down from 71% in February), with only 15% saying it is doing enough (steady). Forty-two per cent say Tony Abbott should remain in parliament (down a point since April), with 30% saying he should remain (down two).

The fortnightly YouGov poll maintains the usual peculiarities of the series, most notably a headline two-party figure showing the Coalition with a lead of 51-49, based on low primary votes for the major parties and a strong flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition (two-thirds, along with 27% of Greens preferences and half of the remainder). With preference flows like those of the 2016 election, Labor would come out about 52.5-47.5 ahead. The primary votes are Coalition 34% (steady), Labor 32% (down one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 11% (up two). The poll also found 67% had voted in the same-sex marriage survey, of whom 61% voted yes and 35% no. The remainder, including the 20% still likely to vote, broke 54% to 28% in favour. Thirty per cent said companies declaring their support for same-sex marriage gave them a more favourable view of their brand, compared with 20% less favourable and 46% no difference.

Other findings: 37% thought the Constitution should be changed to allow dual citizens to run for parliament, with 45% opposed; 56% favoured stricter gun laws, compared with 7% for less strict and 34% for “remain about the same”; and 42% would deem it a bad thing if the government dropped its clean energy targets for 2020, compared with 32% for good thing. Asked to pick out of a list of 16 most important issues for the next election, health came out tops on 44% (though this was down five since August), with unemployment, living standards and the economy next placed on 30% each.

Note also that a Queensland state results from Newspoll came out overnight, which you can read about here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,690 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor; YouGov: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  4. bemused @ #1648 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:37 pm

    Matt @ #1638 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:17 pm

    @Bemused: Yeah…no. I have as much right to be here as you do. You want to spray abuse at other Bludgers, that’s your call. But this place isn’t your personal autocracy – people are going to disagree with you, and you’ll become much happier once you learn that you can disagree right back without childish name-calling and vindictive spite being exchanged.

    OK, I should not have said what I said to you.
    But I do not resile from what I said to GG.

    GG does not five a flying f*ck!

  5. C@t:

    I also don’t equate suicide with assisted dying either. The former is commonly regarded as a tragedy, the latter a genuine expression of humanity.

    Chalk and cheese.

  7. GG
    “Combatants in a war situation”
    A just war only, I am sure

    Are you up for a canon law question? I used to be red hot on canon law but that was 40 years ago and I want to see if my memory is correct

  9. C@tmomma @ #1647 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:35 pm

    I’m underwhelmed by the quality of your argument.

    As am I by your pathetic attempt to equate Voluntary Assisted Dying with Suicide.

    One is done with dignity, the other usually out of desperation.

    You love your word game rationalisations, don’t you.

    I’m far more cut and dried.

    But, you keep on pretending!

  10. Greensborough
    I am genuinely disappointed in you

    Thank you. I take that as a compliment.

    You’re the one that dismisses the the effect of the no campaign on vulnerable young LGBT people. It’s the no campaign that’s beneath contempt.

    To conflate love with keeping a suffering person alive against their will… now that truly is beneath contempt.

  12. Fight for the Future‏ @fightfortheftr 15h15 hours ago

    URGENT: The @FCC is expected to announce a vote on #netneutrality the day before Thanksgiving. Call Congress now!

  14. C@tmomma @ #1650 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:38 pm

    bemused @ #1645 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:35 pm

    Confessions @ #1641 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:22 pm

    No GG, I call it assisted dying, and a person’s dignified personal choice.

    There’s nothing suicidal about it.

    Yes there is. But it is a rational choice under very specific circumstances.

    As I said to GG, Voluntary Assisted Dying and Suicide ARE different. You can equate them if YOU want. I do not.

    Suicide is generally a sad and lonely affair. Voluntary Assisted Dying can be made to be the opposite quite easily and happily for all concerned.

    Both involve a person choosing to take their own life.

  17. JimmyDoyle @ #1660 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:49 pm

    Greensborough
    I am genuinely disappointed in you

    Thank you. I take that as a compliment.

    You’re the one that dismisses the the effect of the no campaign on vulnerable young LGBT people. It’s the no campaign that’s beneath contempt.

    To conflate love with keeping a suffering person alive against their will… now that truly is beneath contempt.

    As the Banjo once wrote of gilded youths,

    “Your eyes are shut, your head is flat. You have no brains at all”.

    Good luck with being angry for the rest of your life!

    Cheers.

  21. Right:
    For confession/reconciliation/absolution to be valid you need:
    1. Sorrow (and there are 2 types of sorrow whose names I have forgotten)
    2. A commitment not to sin again
    3. Penance
    4. Restitution- as far as possible
    My memory is that restitution included taking the civil penalty for committing a civil crime.

    Therefore priests or laity who sought absolution for serial paedophilia did so invaldly because of 2 and 4 but more importantly priests who gave absolution without insisting on the penitent turning themselves in also acted invalidly

  22. GG
    Good luck with being angry for the rest of your life!

    There are things worth being angry about. As the great Albert Camus said in The Stranger, “It is better to burn than to disappear.”

    In any case, if there’s one thing we know, it’s that your world is rapidly disappearing.

    Good riddance.

  23. Oakeshott Country @ #1671 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 11:02 pm

    Right:
    For confession/reconciliation/absolution to be valid you need:
    1. Sorrow (and there are 2 types of sorrow whose names I have forgotten)
    2. A commitment not to sin again
    3. Penance
    4. Restitution- as far as possible
    My memory is that restitution included taking the civil penalty for committing a civil crime.

    Therefore priests or laity who sort absolution for serial paedophilia did so invaldly because of 2 and 4 but more importantly priests who gave absolution without insisting on the penitent turning themselves in also acted invalidly

    I can agree with all that apart from Priest in the confession box who is there as a conduit between the sinner and their God. It’s very much a client/lawyer arrangement. That doesn’t mean the priest should not encourage the sinner to take responsibility for their civil indiscretions. But, insistence is beyond their job description.

  24. You can hold these opinions, but they hold no weight. Such things are the province of women. We give life, after all.

    You are just a man.

    Greensborough Growler @ #1594 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 8:58 pm

    I’m an absolutist on this issue. I don’t believe in killing the old, the sick and the demented. I don’t believe in killing unborn children. I’m opposed to killing people for civil crimes.

    So, I know there are plenty of middle class sophistry arguments about personal rights and the like.

    To me, they are all “slippery slope” arguments that eventually justify killing those who need our protection and love.

  26. Re: euthanasia, one of my grandmothers died of lung cancer in her mid 70s. She died at home, with only a visit from the district nurse on the night she was dying, with no pain relief or supplemental oxygen – not that it would have affected the ultimate outcome, but it might have made her more comfortable. Her final hours were not a pretty sight, watching her gasp for air… for hours. It was quite shocking, actually. We were told that had she gone to hospital, she probably would have had to wait on a trolley. There is no point prolonging suffering at this point.

  27. For all the many fans on PB

    26 October – Kevin Rudd Book Launch

    Join former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on Thursday 26 October as he launches his autobiography “Not For The Faint-hearted” in Melbourne with Kerry O’Brien.

    Kevin’s book covers his journey through being a kid in country Queensland, a China scholar, a member of Australia’s Foreign Service, working as the chief of staff to Wayne Goss as he ended over 32 years of National Party rule in the state and finally landing in Canberra. Kevin entered a Parliament dominated by John Winston Howard who would keep Labor out of power for 11 years until Kevin Rudd led the Labor Party to victory at the 2007 election that resulted in the winning of 23 seats and the unseating of a Prime Minister.

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  30. Ha. By definition in a parliamentary democracy the ones who take power are the winners. That’s what having a majority means.

  31. There’s a lot of dying to be done. Lots. That is not in question. There will be dying without aid and with ease. And there will be dying in ignorance. There will be sudden death. There will be dying without help. There will be reluctant dying and brave dying and dying without succour of any kind. There will be contradictory dying and peremptory and cursory dying. There will be presence of mind and kindness. There will be remembrance and there will be the inexplicable mercy of forgetfulness.

    An assistant in death is a paradox. They are not wanted but they may be indispensable. They may be wise, but what do they do with the woe? The assistant is acquainted with compassion and pity; they have knowledge of the dying, the just-dead and the so-bereaved. They are observers of pain and disease; of the now-hot/then-cold facts of mortality. These gaunt fellows – these graduates – are among us all the time. They visit, unwelcome and too soon.

    They make themselves right at home among the living and among sick; and freely they share their sorrows. The more sorrow there is, strangely the more will be found. Sorrows are like betting slips at the bookies ring on Cup Day. They are everywhere discarded and blown, pink and white and blue petals from the wilting flowers, blown around underfoot. Purple for anguish. Red for agony. Yellow for nausea. White for fear. Orange for vomit. Black for diarrhoea. Browns for thirst. Green for terror. Grey for the End and for Word of God. Silhouette for the last breath.

    What to do with the sorrows, oh what to do with the stale flowers.

  32. GG: It was to be expected that the News Corpse outlets would continue smearing Ardern and NZ Labour. In that, they’re only continuing the long tradition of hard-Rightism laid down by the Murdoch family. One can only hope that Rupert is not immortal, and that his heirs will fragment control of the empire – leaving the dead-tree outlets high & dry without their 8-9 figure annual subsidies from the profit-making outlets.

  38. Keith Windschuttle is such a ratbag even Gerard Henderson has had a go at him (SMH, December 2004)

    [ The problem with Windschuttle’s work is that, at times, you get the impression that he is a former Marxist – turned political conservative – who is waging a personal war on the very left-wing interpretation of Australian history that he once both embraced and proclaimed. His revisionism is essential reading for anyone who wants to join the debate on Australian history. Yet, because his history contains a substantial degree of personal polemic, it sometimes lacks empathy.

    For example, in his revisionist interpretation concerning the fate of the Tasmanian Aborigines, Windschuttle recorded that “only” about 120 had been killed. His assertion has not been disproved, yet the word “only” was regrettable. It is much the same with his current work. Relying on contemporary sources and Myra Willard’s 1923 History of the White Australia Policy, Windschuttle argues that the WAP was introduced for economic and nationalistic reasons and was not motivated primarily by race.]

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