This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average records an unusually solid two-point move in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Nothing in The Guardian’s report on primary votes, so those will have to wait until later in the day. What we do have in the report is that 65% support a clean energy target, 74% back support for renewable energy and “a majority” support Labor’s goal of 50% renewable energy by 2030. Sixty-one per cent say the government is not doing enough “to ensure affordable, reliable and clean energy” (down from 71% in February), with only 15% saying it is doing enough (steady). Forty-two per cent say Tony Abbott should remain in parliament (down a point since April), with 30% saying he should remain (down two).
The fortnightly YouGov poll maintains the usual peculiarities of the series, most notably a headline two-party figure showing the Coalition with a lead of 51-49, based on low primary votes for the major parties and a strong flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition (two-thirds, along with 27% of Greens preferences and half of the remainder). With preference flows like those of the 2016 election, Labor would come out about 52.5-47.5 ahead. The primary votes are Coalition 34% (steady), Labor 32% (down one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 11% (up two). The poll also found 67% had voted in the same-sex marriage survey, of whom 61% voted yes and 35% no. The remainder, including the 20% still likely to vote, broke 54% to 28% in favour. Thirty per cent said companies declaring their support for same-sex marriage gave them a more favourable view of their brand, compared with 20% less favourable and 46% no difference.
Other findings: 37% thought the Constitution should be changed to allow dual citizens to run for parliament, with 45% opposed; 56% favoured stricter gun laws, compared with 7% for less strict and 34% for “remain about the same”; and 42% would deem it a bad thing if the government dropped its clean energy targets for 2020, compared with 32% for good thing. Asked to pick out of a list of 16 most important issues for the next election, health came out tops on 44% (though this was down five since August), with unemployment, living standards and the economy next placed on 30% each.
Note also that a Queensland state results from Newspoll came out overnight, which you can read about here.