This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average records an unusually solid two-point move in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Nothing in The Guardian’s report on primary votes, so those will have to wait until later in the day. What we do have in the report is that 65% support a clean energy target, 74% back support for renewable energy and “a majority” support Labor’s goal of 50% renewable energy by 2030. Sixty-one per cent say the government is not doing enough “to ensure affordable, reliable and clean energy” (down from 71% in February), with only 15% saying it is doing enough (steady). Forty-two per cent say Tony Abbott should remain in parliament (down a point since April), with 30% saying he should remain (down two).
The fortnightly YouGov poll maintains the usual peculiarities of the series, most notably a headline two-party figure showing the Coalition with a lead of 51-49, based on low primary votes for the major parties and a strong flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition (two-thirds, along with 27% of Greens preferences and half of the remainder). With preference flows like those of the 2016 election, Labor would come out about 52.5-47.5 ahead. The primary votes are Coalition 34% (steady), Labor 32% (down one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 11% (up two). The poll also found 67% had voted in the same-sex marriage survey, of whom 61% voted yes and 35% no. The remainder, including the 20% still likely to vote, broke 54% to 28% in favour. Thirty per cent said companies declaring their support for same-sex marriage gave them a more favourable view of their brand, compared with 20% less favourable and 46% no difference.
Other findings: 37% thought the Constitution should be changed to allow dual citizens to run for parliament, with 45% opposed; 56% favoured stricter gun laws, compared with 7% for less strict and 34% for “remain about the same”; and 42% would deem it a bad thing if the government dropped its clean energy targets for 2020, compared with 32% for good thing. Asked to pick out of a list of 16 most important issues for the next election, health came out tops on 44% (though this was down five since August), with unemployment, living standards and the economy next placed on 30% each.
Note also that a Queensland state results from Newspoll came out overnight, which you can read about here.
1,690 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor; YouGov: 51-49 to Coalition”
Just as long as they’re not gay, right?
JimmyDoyle @ #1651 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:39 pm
A facile comment beneath contempt. I am genuinely disappointed in you.
@Bemused: Well, I’ll take what I can get, and thanks.
bemused @ #1648 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:37 pm
GG does not five a flying f*ck!
I also don’t equate suicide with assisted dying either. The former is commonly regarded as a tragedy, the latter a genuine expression of humanity.
Chalk and cheese.
Confessions @ #1654 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:46 pm
It is also the sign of a weak argument to try and equate the two.
“Combatants in a war situation”
A just war only, I am sure
Are you up for a canon law question? I used to be red hot on canon law but that was 40 years ago and I want to see if my memory is correct
@GG “those who need our protection and love.”
Just as long as you not poor, refugee, gay, etc.
C@tmomma @ #1647 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:35 pm
You love your word game rationalisations, don’t you.
I’m far more cut and dried.
But, you keep on pretending!
Thank you. I take that as a compliment.
You’re the one that dismisses the the effect of the no campaign on vulnerable young LGBT people. It’s the no campaign that’s beneath contempt.
To conflate love with keeping a suffering person alive against their will… now that truly is beneath contempt.
Well it’s goodnight from him.
With a little bit of luck ( ❗ ) none of us will die tonight.
Fight for the Future @fightfortheftr 15h15 hours ago
URGENT: The @FCC is expected to announce a vote on #netneutrality the day before Thanksgiving. Call Congress now!
Goodnight all! : )
I’ll leave GG to keep shouting at clouds. ; )
Goodnight, KayJay. See you, same time, same place, tomorrow!
C@tmomma @ #1650 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:38 pm
Both involve a person choosing to take their own life.
Matt @ #1653 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:43 pm
It was meant as an apology but on re-reading was a bit short of that so I now apologise unambiguously.
Oakeshott Country @ #1657 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:49 pm
I’ll get in the mood with a bit of Joan Benatar. But, fire away!
JimmyDoyle @ #1660 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 10:49 pm
As the Banjo once wrote of gilded youths,
“Your eyes are shut, your head is flat. You have no brains at all”.
Good luck with being angry for the rest of your life!
@Bemused: Accepted, with thanks. 🙂
Agreed. And goodnight!
You mean the tribute band from Newport Beach, California that plays the music of Joan Jett and Pat Benatar?
For confession/reconciliation/absolution to be valid you need:
1. Sorrow (and there are 2 types of sorrow whose names I have forgotten)
2. A commitment not to sin again
4. Restitution- as far as possible
My memory is that restitution included taking the civil penalty for committing a civil crime.
Therefore priests or laity who sought absolution for serial paedophilia did so invaldly because of 2 and 4 but more importantly priests who gave absolution without insisting on the penitent turning themselves in also acted invalidly
There are things worth being angry about. As the great Albert Camus said in The Stranger, “It is better to burn than to disappear.”
In any case, if there’s one thing we know, it’s that your world is rapidly disappearing.
Oakeshott Country @ #1671 Thursday, October 19th, 2017 – 11:02 pm
I can agree with all that apart from Priest in the confession box who is there as a conduit between the sinner and their God. It’s very much a client/lawyer arrangement. That doesn’t mean the priest should not encourage the sinner to take responsibility for their civil indiscretions. But, insistence is beyond their job description.
You can hold these opinions, but they hold no weight. Such things are the province of women. We give life, after all.
You are just a man.
Nit me with your best shot!
Re: euthanasia, one of my grandmothers died of lung cancer in her mid 70s. She died at home, with only a visit from the district nurse on the night she was dying, with no pain relief or supplemental oxygen – not that it would have affected the ultimate outcome, but it might have made her more comfortable. Her final hours were not a pretty sight, watching her gasp for air… for hours. It was quite shocking, actually. We were told that had she gone to hospital, she probably would have had to wait on a trolley. There is no point prolonging suffering at this point.
For all the many fans on PB
26 October – Kevin Rudd Book Launch
Join former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on Thursday 26 October as he launches his autobiography “Not For The Faint-hearted” in Melbourne with Kerry O’Brien.
Kevin’s book covers his journey through being a kid in country Queensland, a China scholar, a member of Australia’s Foreign Service, working as the chief of staff to Wayne Goss as he ended over 32 years of National Party rule in the state and finally landing in Canberra. Kevin entered a Parliament dominated by John Winston Howard who would keep Labor out of power for 11 years until Kevin Rudd led the Labor Party to victory at the 2007 election that resulted in the winning of 23 seats and the unseating of a Prime Minister.
When: 6:15pm Thursday 26 October 2017
Purchase tickets now: CLICK HERE
Here’s the link.
See you all there. 😀
And, so it begins!
Ha. By definition in a parliamentary democracy the ones who take power are the winners. That’s what having a majority means.
There’s a lot of dying to be done. Lots. That is not in question. There will be dying without aid and with ease. And there will be dying in ignorance. There will be sudden death. There will be dying without help. There will be reluctant dying and brave dying and dying without succour of any kind. There will be contradictory dying and peremptory and cursory dying. There will be presence of mind and kindness. There will be remembrance and there will be the inexplicable mercy of forgetfulness.
An assistant in death is a paradox. They are not wanted but they may be indispensable. They may be wise, but what do they do with the woe? The assistant is acquainted with compassion and pity; they have knowledge of the dying, the just-dead and the so-bereaved. They are observers of pain and disease; of the now-hot/then-cold facts of mortality. These gaunt fellows – these graduates – are among us all the time. They visit, unwelcome and too soon.
They make themselves right at home among the living and among sick; and freely they share their sorrows. The more sorrow there is, strangely the more will be found. Sorrows are like betting slips at the bookies ring on Cup Day. They are everywhere discarded and blown, pink and white and blue petals from the wilting flowers, blown around underfoot. Purple for anguish. Red for agony. Yellow for nausea. White for fear. Orange for vomit. Black for diarrhoea. Browns for thirst. Green for terror. Grey for the End and for Word of God. Silhouette for the last breath.
What to do with the sorrows, oh what to do with the stale flowers.
GG: It was to be expected that the News Corpse outlets would continue smearing Ardern and NZ Labour. In that, they’re only continuing the long tradition of hard-Rightism laid down by the Murdoch family. One can only hope that Rupert is not immortal, and that his heirs will fragment control of the empire – leaving the dead-tree outlets high & dry without their 8-9 figure annual subsidies from the profit-making outlets.
By that analysis nearly every time we have a Coalition Government the losers take power.
Lilac. What the bloody hell will be done with the lilac? Oh, dry me a chilli; catch me a fish. Shuck an oyster and peel a plum. Bake apples with dates and raisins. Wilt spinach and poach eggs. Sing Imagine, like this…
Another USA shooting:
It’s like shooting fish in a barrel over there!
Keith Windschuttle is such a ratbag even Gerard Henderson has had a go at him (SMH, December 2004)
[ The problem with Windschuttle’s work is that, at times, you get the impression that he is a former Marxist – turned political conservative – who is waging a personal war on the very left-wing interpretation of Australian history that he once both embraced and proclaimed. His revisionism is essential reading for anyone who wants to join the debate on Australian history. Yet, because his history contains a substantial degree of personal polemic, it sometimes lacks empathy.
For example, in his revisionist interpretation concerning the fate of the Tasmanian Aborigines, Windschuttle recorded that “only” about 120 had been killed. His assertion has not been disproved, yet the word “only” was regrettable. It is much the same with his current work. Relying on contemporary sources and Myra Willard’s 1923 History of the White Australia Policy, Windschuttle argues that the WAP was introduced for economic and nationalistic reasons and was not motivated primarily by race.]