Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor; YouGov: 51-49 to Coalition

The gap narrows in the latest Essential Research poll, which also finds strong support for a clean energy target.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average records an unusually solid two-point move in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Nothing in The Guardian’s report on primary votes, so those will have to wait until later in the day. What we do have in the report is that 65% support a clean energy target, 74% back support for renewable energy and “a majority” support Labor’s goal of 50% renewable energy by 2030. Sixty-one per cent say the government is not doing enough “to ensure affordable, reliable and clean energy” (down from 71% in February), with only 15% saying it is doing enough (steady). Forty-two per cent say Tony Abbott should remain in parliament (down a point since April), with 30% saying he should remain (down two).

The fortnightly YouGov poll maintains the usual peculiarities of the series, most notably a headline two-party figure showing the Coalition with a lead of 51-49, based on low primary votes for the major parties and a strong flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition (two-thirds, along with 27% of Greens preferences and half of the remainder). With preference flows like those of the 2016 election, Labor would come out about 52.5-47.5 ahead. The primary votes are Coalition 34% (steady), Labor 32% (down one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 11% (up two). The poll also found 67% had voted in the same-sex marriage survey, of whom 61% voted yes and 35% no. The remainder, including the 20% still likely to vote, broke 54% to 28% in favour. Thirty per cent said companies declaring their support for same-sex marriage gave them a more favourable view of their brand, compared with 20% less favourable and 46% no difference.

Other findings: 37% thought the Constitution should be changed to allow dual citizens to run for parliament, with 45% opposed; 56% favoured stricter gun laws, compared with 7% for less strict and 34% for “remain about the same”; and 42% would deem it a bad thing if the government dropped its clean energy targets for 2020, compared with 32% for good thing. Asked to pick out of a list of 16 most important issues for the next election, health came out tops on 44% (though this was down five since August), with unemployment, living standards and the economy next placed on 30% each.

Note also that a Queensland state results from Newspoll came out overnight, which you can read about here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,690 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor; YouGov: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. 42% think the former prime minister should resign from parliament (down 1% from April), while 30% think he should stay in parliament in some capacity (down 2%).

  2. Given the support for renewable energy and a ‘clean energy target’, it will be interesting to see Essential in 1 and 2 weeks time, given today’s announcement.
    Will the energy policy be debated and voted in in a Liberal party meeting or a joint party meeting (with the Nats).

    Perhaps if it is a joint party room meeting we might have another plebiscite, they appear to like them.

  3. Ex-Obama staffer nails ‘deranged animal’ Trump for lying about Obama not calling families of fallen troops

    President Donald Trump on Monday said that former President Barack Obama did not call the families of soldiers who had died in combat — and a former Obama aide absolutely let him have it on Twitter.

    Alyssa Mastromonaco, who served as a deputy chief of staff under former President Barack Obama, angrily responded to Trump’s declaration during a press conference that “if you look at President Obama and other presidents, most of them didn’t make calls” to the families of soldiers who died in combat.

    “That’s a f*cking lie,” she said. “To say President Obama (or past presidents) didn’t call the family members of soldiers KIA – he’s a deranged animal.”

    A quick search of news archives reveals multiple times Obama met with military family members in which he offered thanks and condolences for their sacrifice.

  4. GOP strategist warns of ‘great danger’: Trump grows more ‘unhinged and unraveled’ every week

    Schmidt blasted Republicans for voting on a health care bill they didn’t understand, proposing tax cuts that would expand the national debt and supporting the president’s “ramblings” on foreign trade and diplomacy.

    “It seems like each Monday, as we start the week, the world is just a bit more dangerous, the administration a bit more unhinged, the president a bit more unraveled,” Schmidt said. “It seems that we’re moving inexorably closer to great danger in this country as a result of these policies.”

  5. Good Morning Bludgers : )

    Swings and roundabouts, not a trend, if we take Newspoll into account.

    Labor can’t be complacent though.

  6. The bed wetters in the Coalition not giving YouGov much shrift. This from Phil Coorey today

    “A breakdown of polling that shows the Coalition will suffer heavy losses in Queensland and Western Australia has begun circulating among MPs as the government fights to reverse its fortunes and Tony Abbott hangs out his leadership shingle.

    The numbers, based on a state-by-state breakdown of current Newspoll numbers, shows the Coalition would lose 10 seats in Queensland and five in WA. It would lose a total of four among the other mainland sates combined. It is believed it was discussed by a small group of MPs on Monday.

    Sources told The Australian Financial Review that at the same time, it was recognised inside government that Malcolm Turnbull remained the Coalition’s best hope, but unless something happened soon, more MPs would start breaking ranks to save their seats.

    “They’re not panicking but they’re starting to ask ‘what the f–k?’,” said a source.”

    Read more:
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  7. Just when you think Turnbull can’t possibly do anything to prove what an impotent nothing of a “leader” he is, he comes up with the novel idea of scrapping renewable energy targets and replaces them with fossil fuel targets… well played sir, you find new ways to confound..

  8. Some more Coorey quotes from delusional Liberals

    But Mr Abbott’s backbench ally Craig Kelly said linking Mr Abbott’s controversial London speech was “a long bow to draw”.

    Mr Kelly ruled out any leadership move, saying once the public saw the Coalition’s energy policy, they would see a “real difference” between Labor and Liberal and “that will turn the polls around”.

    One Liberal said his dog had a better chance of being drafted than Mr Abbott.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher looks at the military options for North Korea, none of the potential outcomes is good.
    Michelle Grattan says the government is set to unveil its long-awaited energy plan that would scrap subsidies for renewables and impose obligations on power companies to source a certain proportion of “reliable” supply.
    Nicole Hasham says that the only way he government will get the bill though will have to be via the cross bench.
    Mark Kenny writes that Abbott has fired a telling shot across Malcolm Turnbull’s bow, warning that any energy package agreed to in cabinet must also pass a party room wary of anything approaching a clean energy target or other subsidy scheme for renewables.
    Paul Bongiorno doesn’t think today’s announcement on energy policy will end the confusion and create a circuit breaker for Turnbull..
    One of the world’s largest pension funds will vote with activists against Origin’s board over the company’s approach to climate change risk disclosure at its looming annual meeting. This will be one to watch.
    The Turnbull government is set to announce a major repositioning of Australia’s energy and emissions policy after cabinet signed off on a plan to scrap all renewable energy subsidies in future, mandating instead the use of sufficient “reliable” energy like coal and gas to avoid blackouts. Mark Kenny explains.
    Simon Benson reckons that energy retailers will be forced to buy a minimum amount of baseload power from coal, gas or hydro for every megawatt of renewable energy under a drastic intervention into the energy market by the Turnbull government to drive energy bills down by $115 a year. Google.
    Adam Gartrell writes on how the government’s message is that the cost of green schemes must be proportionate to the benefits they deliver. And the corollary is . . . ?

  10. Section 2 . . .

    Jenna Price gives us Tony Abbott – the convenient Catholic. A really good exposition.
    Dennis Shanahan says people should stop blaming Tony Abbott for the Coalition’s deeper problems. Google.
    Here’s what could happen next for Barnaby Joyce.
    Sean Carney thinks that the next election will come down to who is the least unpopular. Google.
    Queensland grazier Bruce Currie is fighting the inevitable destruction of his livelihood posed by the Adani and GVK Hancock coal mines.,10825
    Lisa Wilkinson’s had enough of Channel Nine.
    Changes to private health insurance will help the big providers maintain profit margins but have warned.
    Peter Hendy (remember him?) has his eyes on Howard’s old seat as a way into parliament. Google.
    The SMH editorialises that Gladys Berejiklian doesn’t seem to know where she’s going.
    Peter FitzSimons has his say about the role of the royals in The Dismissal.

  11. Section 3 . . .

    Aviation experts have warned that saving a buck isn’t worth your life, after a frightening mid-air incident on budget carrier AirAsia on Sunday.
    Women working for Victoria’s Country Fire Authority have been sexually assaulted and harassed amid a culture of fear, bullying and impunity, according to a leaked internal report whose existence has been a tightly held secret until now.
    Greg Jericho wonders what is in store for first home buyers.
    Elizabeth Knight examines how the banks might fare under the constant attack of new technology and fintech companies.
    The collision of a pair of neutron stars, marked by ripples through the fabric of space-time and a flash brighter than a billion suns, has been witnessed for the first time in the most intensely observed astronomical event to date.
    Australia Post’s parcel service has been thrown into chaos after the shipping and tracking service failed yesterday. An Australia Post seemed to go to ground!
    Australia was among 15 countries elected to the United Nations Human Rights Council for a three-year term on Tuesday, despite the UN body previously criticising Australia for its poor record on the treatment of refugees and asylum seekers in detention. It must have been because of Peter Dutton’s empathetic approach!
    This advisor of Jacqui Lambie’s seems to be a “colourful character”!
    Donald Trump and his use of Twitter represent a “clear and present danger” to global security, Hillary Clinton has warned.
    Up to half of the groups who advocate for people with a disability in NSW are facing being wiped out by funding cuts, as the state government hands over responsibility for disability services to the Commonwealth, new figures show.

  12. Section 4 . . .

    Solomon Lew continues to put pressure on the board of Myers.
    According to this academic the internal combustion engine is dead. This will likely be the case in urban and peri urban situations but there is a long way to go for people in the country in places like Australia.
    Old white men dominate our news, our economy, our politics and our lives. Harvey Weinstein is but the latest example of rich white male ruling-class overlordship.,10823
    What’s next for progressive Pope Francis?
    Frontline police officers in SA will not support any proposed shoot-to-kill terror laws proposed by the Liberal Party unless full criminal and civil immunity is built in to protect them from recriminations. Google.
    I read through all of this contribution on the Victorian assisted dying legislation but couldn’t really come to grips with her argument.
    This article fro ma lady going through a drug and alcohol rehabilitation program goes to what drives men like Harvey Weinstein. She says that “it is not powerlessness that drives men like Harvey Weinstein. It is the very opposite of that. It is the desire to wield their power over people who have none, or have very little in comparison.” He is not an addict, she says, he is a sex offender.
    Who are the people who make up US President Donald Trump’s base? They are the loyalists who not only supported and voted for him, but also seem impervious to his more outrageous scandals.
    Federal bureaucrats have ordered Nick Champion to remove the word “Holden” from a tribute to Adelaide car workers who will lose their jobs when the iconic carmaker closes its factory later this week. What in the hell are they playing at? Google.

  13. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe knows how to get the message across!

    Cathy Wilcox on the struggle for a place in our bedrooms.

    John Shakespeare nails Abbott’s motives.

    Peter Broelman on the Bilson whitewash.

    And Broelman puts the NK issue into perspective.

    A great little cartoon from Matt Golding!

    And Golding takes to the skies.

    Alan Moir at Trump’s recent meeting with his generals.

    Cathy Wilcox on national security in Australia.

    Have a look at this effort from David Pope!
    Jon Kudelka with a reminder to Turnbull.

  14. I look at pics of Harvey Weinstein and I wonder, What makes middle-aged men think that grey stubble on a double chin makes them look attractive?

  15. l
    As an occasional stubbler the answer is that I don’t give a stuff what people think about stubble.

    I rather like it if I am going to spend a lot of time outside because it reduces the chances of BCCs.

  16. Boerwar

    I don’t think your occasional use of stubble for sun protection is in the same category as the Hollywood egotists’ and I don’t get the feeling that you think it makes you sexually irresistible. 🙂

  17. The Coalition continues to flatline despite a big focus in recent weeks on cost of living pressures, including the cost of gas and energy, and an overhaul of private health insurance announced Friday.

    I think I should point out, as the Coalition brings out it’s Dirty Energy policy today, that the above quote neatly encapsulates the Coalition modus operandi. It’s all about bringing the cost of living down in some way…Private Health Insurance, Electricity bills. What it is never about, is increasing wages or benefits.

    Read more:

  18. Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce:
    The federal Nationals conference last month passed motions calling for renewable energy subsidies to be scrapped, and opposing the prospect of a clean energy target. Mr Joyce on Monday declared “we believe in coal-fired power”

    Barnaby Joyce. Tony Abbott. Same same.

    In fact, that’s who the Labor Party should also be concentrating their attack on after Spineless Malcolm releases the Coalition Dirty Energy policy today…the Nationals. They are obviously dictating policy to stenographer, Turnbull.

  19. Morning all and thanks BK. If the Adelaide oval/Aami stadium saga here has taught us anything, it is that building big stadiums in outer suburban areas creates white elephants and does little for the city. So why is NSW Lib govt going to plough another $2 billion in a third attempt in Sydney? Lucky they have no needs in health, education or transport.

  20. Will providers of renewable energy be penalised because they are forced to sell a proportion of the other stuff? Or am I just suspicious?

  21. Many appear have given up on impeachment of President Trump for the moment. But it’s a real turning point when mental-health professionals are so willing to organize politically, break brazenly with long-standing protocol, and even risk discipline by licensing boards. After this, talk of Trump’s removal under the Twenty-fifth Amendment may not seem so crazy.

  22. So it seems that Turnbull’s grand plan will lower the cost of electricity by $2.20 a week for the average family. Not even a cup of coffee. I don’t think anyone will be getting too excited about that.

  23. Darn

    So it seems that Turnbull’s grand plan will lower the cost of electricity by $2.20 a week for the average family.

    Assuming of course this latest cunning plan actually works. Given their track record it is a 100-1 roughie.

  24. Good Morning

    In case you missed it the Lisa Wilkinson thing is a big story. Not just because of a pay dispute.

    Its also CBS doing its thing. Real credible journalism. Finally it won’t just be the ABC that gives us a real current affairs network with aggressive investigative journalism.

    This is what I was hoping for when I heard CBS was taking over. Happy days for journalists not so happy days for any trying to hide stuff from the public.

  25. lizzie @ #16 Tuesday, October 17th, 2017 – 7:10 am

    I look at pics of Harvey Weinstein and I wonder, What makes middle-aged men think that grey stubble on a double chin makes them look attractive?

    You get to a point in life where you just don’t care and the gray stubble is easier than a shave,

  26. You get to a point in life where you just don’t care and the gray stubble is easier than a shave,

    Or at least have days like that. Stubble doesn’t work for me, just makes me look like I spent the night on a park bench.

  27. Thanks BK.
    Great article by Bruce Currie.
    Good work Labor, great to see you up there with One Nation!

    WHEN A GOVERNMENT-FUNDED project of destruction, approved by Coalition, Labor and One Nation threatens your family’s survival, your business, your industry, the needs of your children, your community and the next generation, only then do you start to understand why the Anzacs made the decisions they did to protect the culture and country they loved!

    It is disgusting that Labor not only supports this fucking mine, but pro-actively removes environmental rights, as well as the water rights of farmers.
    Adani gets FREE water while farmers have to pay $1400 /ML. If that is not a direct subsidy to coal, then I don’t know what is.,10825

  28. New Poll Delivers Horrible News To Trump As Republicans Are Fleeing His Failing Presidency

    A new Gallup poll shows Trump’s approval rating with Republicans is now sitting in the Nixon during Watergate territory that no president ever wants to be in.

    The Gallup Poll:

    new Gallup on Trump job performance, by party:

    Ds 7% approve 91% disapprove;
    Inds 26% approve, 61% disapprove;
    Rs 73% approve 23% disapprove

    When a president’s approval rating with his own party is three points lower than Nixon’s right before he resigned, that is a huge problem. Trump is so busy catering to his base, which is about 30%-32% of voters that he is losing many members of his own party. These numbers aren’t just bad. They’re horrific for a president who is less than a year into his first term and still has zero major legislative accomplishments. Independents lean Republican, so the amount of disapproval for Trump among the right is larger than being calculated in the polling.

    Donald Trump is in worse shape than Richard Nixon was with Republicans when he resigned. Trump’s pandering to his base is not keeping his party together. With each move to the right, Trump loses more Republicans.

    By the numbers, Trump is already one of the worst presidents in US history.

  29. Maybe Malcolm should just have done with it on energy and adopt a coal-fired generation target, say 90% by 2030. He could set up an energy advisory council whose members would include Maurice Newman, Nick Cater, Gina Rhinehart, Ian Plimer and the soon to be available Malcolm Roberts.

  30. guytaur

    Barnaby is attacking out of desperation. LNP attitude to car industry is shameful. Problem is, his fans will believe him.

  31. Lizzie

    Yes desperation is what I see too. Of course why Turnbull is caving in to him and his lot with the Hight Court case and the facts against them I don’t know.

    The spinelessness of Turnbull remains a mystery to me. Its at the point where the saying shit or get off the pot comes to mind.

  32. The use of a razor for shaving is forbidden by Jewish law, observed to a greater or lesser extent incl periods of mourning, based on Leviticus. Remember Leviticus?

    btw, the electric rotary shaver was invented by the Jewish engineer Alexandre Howoitz. (wiki)

  33. From what is reported I can’t see the energy ‘plan’, lowering energy prices, electricity and LPG.
    What is needed is major investment in generation and for that certainty from bipartisan agreement.
    Turnbull is solely thinking about the next election.

  34. C@tmomma @ #24 Tuesday, October 17th, 2017 – 6:31 am

    The Coalition continues to flatline despite a big focus in recent weeks on cost of living pressures, including the cost of gas and energy, and an overhaul of private health insurance announced Friday.

    I think I should point out, as the Coalition brings out it’s Dirty Energy policy today, that the above quote neatly encapsulates the Coalition modus operandi. It’s all about bringing the cost of living down in some way…Private Health Insurance, Electricity bills. What it is never about, is increasing wages or benefits.

    Read more:

    The problem for the Coalition is that some costs coming down doesn’t make people feel any richer – but their wages going up does. A politically successful policy will go for the image on reducing costs (whether it works or not) and for the reality on increasing incomes. Which is just what Labor is pushing

  35. guytaur

    Makes me wonder whether Turnbull has any supporters among the rest of the MPs, because they only ever support the RWNJs.

  36. Kieran_Gilbert: $115 save for average Aust household power bill under Govt’s “reliability guarantee”, Finkle projected a $90 save under his CET #auspol

    TheKouk: 30 cents a day ……

  37. Okay, so reading into the drop Simon Benson got from the government about their new Dirty Energy policy, I think I can see a sliver of light for Renewable Energy, even after Turnbull drops their taxpayer subsidies from 2020(god forbid he is still in power after the next election):

    The new guarantee will require electricity retailers to buy a set percentage of their energy from sources that are considered reliable or “dispatchable” — a category that includes coal, gas, pumped hydro, biomass and renewables backed by battery or other storage.

    The reliability guarantee will start in 2019 and will be followed by a separate mandate to require electricity companies to buy a set percentage of their power from sources that are low in producing greenhouse gas emissions.

    It all revolves around big storage batteries for Wind and Solar. If they can be proven to be as reliable at storing energy in order to satisfy the mythical ‘Baseload Energy’ beast, then they can come through the middle of Turnbull and Frydeplanet’s attempts to finagle a resurgence in Coal-fired Power and Gas.

  38. Lizzie

    Thats why its a mystery to me why Turnbull is there. The only thing I can think of is to reduce the damage of his party in government. Warring with his colleagues for sensible policy every day.

    No one will thank him for it. I certainly don’t if he had not run as PM and Abbott had remained we would have a Labor government now. I think history is going to have the same view.

  39. There is an absolute certainty we will have severe bushfires this summer (we’ve already kicked off the season). Even climate change deniers are now admitting this is connected to climate change (having shifted to ‘it’s part of the natural cycle’ or ‘climate change – it’s good for you” rather than outright denial). Any expert worth their salt is predicting hotter, more frequent and more destructive fires.

    There are predictions that we will have power blackouts this summer. I still haven’t been able to work out if there will be more than any other summer. Again, the experts seem to be singing on one songsheet on this one – the way forward is to provide a secure investment environment.

    The government’s answer to both these problems is to make them worse, not better. We’ll still have just as many blackouts electricity wise and, in the long run, more and more destructive fires.

    If it were a choice, I think I would opt for one or two power failures over summer than another fire season which saw us on full alert for over six weeks, and with the valley filled with choking smoke for over a month.

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